It's impossible to predict and they're just guesses.
Mostly for reasons you've stated: injuries, puck luck, bounces. And....goaltending is huge. Players running hot at the right time.
Look, people pencil in teams based on winning streaks (they're doing so now). But, as we've seen cold teams can suddenly get hot and vice versa. There's no telling when a hot team will fall off the pace and so it's really all about everything clicking at the right time. And key players staying healthy. Which is why I hold my breath when JT goes to the room after taking a high hit into the boards or a brutal shot block. Thank God he's tough as nails because losing him would be detrimental.
I'm really confident in DeSmith and that's reassuring if Demko struggles.
Also, this team has clearly had enough losing and is determined not to let things slide too far. That's become evident. They know how to regroup. There are actual strategies in place to help them do so and coaches aren't just winging it on a hope and a prayer. They have answers for the team.
Anyhow, this sort of sums it all up for me. Bring it...I don't/won't get too caught up in looking down the road. I'll enjoy the ride one game at a time. I know how tough it is to win it all. One team, that's it. The rest will ALL fall flat.