It's hard to say, but these bits jump out
The poll results are likely to increase concerns among Democrats about Biden’s standing with Arab Americans heading into 2024, particularly in Michigan, where roughly 277,000 Arab Americans call home, and Biden won in 2020 by 155,000 votes. But the smaller Arab American populations in Pennsylvania and Georgia were also larger than Biden’s margins of victory there. All three states are ones Biden flipped after Trump won them in 2016.
Even though 2024 appears likely to present a rematch between Biden and Trump, Arab Americans insist Biden cannot take their support for granted. None of those who spoke with TIME say that their lack of confidence in Biden means that they’ll be inclined to vote for Trump. But some remain conflicted about whether the situation would be any worse under the former president either. “Look, we’re not silly—we know what Trump has done to our communities,” says Amer Zahr, the president of the Dearborn-based New Generation for Palestine. But when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he continues, “The policies are basically the same. Except when Trump does it, you get some pushback from the Democratic Party.”
As others see it, though, the question of whether Trump would be better or worse right now is immaterial. “Joe Biden is president right now and the genocide is happening right now—every other hypothetical is of no concern to me,” says Maysoon Zayid, a Palestinian-American comedian, disability advocate, and longtime Democratic Party activist who campaigned for Biden in 2020. When asked whether there was anything Biden could do to win back her support, she was unwavering. “There’s absolutely nothing that man could do. I mean, my God, what could ever bring back those kids? Nothing.”
Zogby, a decades-long member of the Democratic National Committee, notes that the shift away from the Democratic Party among Arab Americans can be seen across the board: among the old and the young, the naturalized citizens and the native-born Americans, as well as among Catholics, Orthodox Christians, and Muslims. “The community is feeling a certain sense of cohesion, and Joe Biden and Israel brought them together,” he says.
The reality, of course, is that Arab Americans base their vote on more issues than just the Middle East. The economy, education, and climate change are likely to be among their concerns next November. But the duration of the war, and the extent to which Biden is seen to enable it, could lead to that issue carrying more weight than it has with many voters in previous elections.
“It’s never a bad bet to bet that foreign policy issues don’t dominate in an election,” says Matt Duss, the executive vice president of the Center for International Policy and a former chief foreign policy advisor to Sen. Sanders. “But I do think we do see evidence here and there that for certain voters, it does matter. And ultimately, we’re talking about a few hundred thousand voters in a few key states. That’s what this election is going to come down to.”