Rip The Mesh

With reports this week that Zadorov’s camp may be willing to accept a slight discount to get a deal done to stay in Vancouver, now it’s all about trying to solve the mystery of the amount necessary to get the deal across the finish line.
Certainly Zadorov and his agent Dan Milstein know their number, and it’s a pretty safe bet the Vancouver Canucks front office does, too – even if they don’t like it. That’s all part of negotiations and the Canucks still have more than three weeks to negotiate with Zadorov before he’s eligible to hit the open market. The 29-year-old has played out the final season of a two-year deal that paid him $3.75M annually. As an unrestricted free agent coming off a solid season and a strong playoff performance, Zadorov is in for a raise. Of that, there is no doubt. And he’s going to want term, too.

Consulting firm AFP Analytics projects Zadorov’s next deal in the five-year $26.5M range which would carry an annual average value of $5.3M per season. Using that as a baseline, what exactly qualifies as a discount?
An educated guess suggests the Zadorov camp is pushing for any new deal to start with a five. Is that the sticking point? Should the Canucks entertain the idea of going to $5M annually with a defenceman who slots in behind Quinn Hughes and Carson Soucy on the left side of the depth chart? And if they’re willing to commit to $5M per season will they offer that over a five year contract? That would make for $25M total compensation, which is slightly lower than the aforementioned projection. However, Zadorov may be willing to test the free-agent waters to see if he can get a sixth year on that type of deal, and that’s certainly something the Canucks will have to consider.

It was clear by the club’s usage in the playoffs that Zadorov is seen internally as more than just a third pair guy. In 13 post-season outings, he was third among Canucks defencemen in TOI, logging 20:09 of ice time per game. He was also the third-most utilized defender on the penalty kill. On top of that, Zadorov tied for third on the team with four playoff goals and was even deployed at times as a net-front presence late in games when the Canucks were down and looking for the equalizer with the goaltender pulled for an extra attacker.
Term shouldn’t really be a sticking point. Or at least it shouldn’t be the deal breaker here. As both Ian Cole and Tyler Myers have shown this past season, veteran defencemen can play into their mid-30s and maintain a relatively high-level of performance – especially ones who focus more on the defensive side of the game. There’s every reason to think that Zadorov can continue to thrive for years in a structured system like the Canucks have in place under Rick Tocchet and Adam Foote.

The Canucks need to figure out if Zadorov at $5M is a want or a need. Could they prioritize a new deal for restricted free agent Filip Hronek and bring back Tyler Myers at a discounted rate and run things back with a top four of Hughes, Hronek, Soucy and Myers while finding a different way to fill the third pair spot on the left side to play with Noah Juulsen?
Or is it imperative to keep Zadorov’s size and intimidation factor in the fold?
Sifting through the noise that is out there and trying to make sense of it all, it feels like a six-year $30M offer would be enough to get Zadorov to stay and play in Vancouver.
The Canucks have the money to make it happen. But they have to decide if that’s the best approach to take this off-season in order to have money to spend to address needs elsewhere in the line-up.

As Jim Rutherford points out, June is always a busy time of year.

and the fact the Vancouver Canucks are facing a whole stack of free agents isn’t especially stressing him out.

There are high-profile names like Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm and mid-tier names like Dakota Joshua, Teddy Blueger and Tyler Myers. And then there’s more.

The Canucks have been looking cautiously towards this summer’s free-agency window. There are lots of decisions to be made, some harder than others.

Player performance projections are a big part of those choices.

So is the growth of the salary cap. After four years of stagnation due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s affect on the economy, the NHL confirmed Saturday that the salary cap is going to leap ahead to $88 million next season, a full $4.5 million above last season’s limit.

It’s the biggest surge in a decade, coming off the heels of the players finally paying off their portion of escrow debt incurred because of the revenue collapse in 2020. As part of that summer’s memorandum of understanding, which extended the collective bargaining agreement from 2012-13 all the way to 2026, the players agreed to have a larger portion of their salaries held back in escrow so that the salary cap wouldn’t be decreased, either through salary rollbacks or other measures the owners might have been contemplating.

In 2019-20 and then in 2020-21, the players gave back 20 per cent of their wages, more than twice what they’d conceded in any season over the previous decade. In subsequent seasons, the players agreed to a decreasing schedule of escrow payments, with the 2023-24 season, plus the two remaining seasons, 2024-25 and 2025-26, of the current CBA set at just six per cent.

The NHL’s economics are apparently so strong that the league is feeling very confident about future growth. (Presumably, shifting from money-losing Arizona to a likely big payday — at least in the short term — in Utah helps a lot.)

As The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun noted Saturday — and you’ve got to think he’s pondering what he’s hearing on this — if the NHL continues to hit its revenue projections over the next two seasons, the cap could increase five per cent before each of the final two seasons of the current CBA and end up at around $97 million.

We’re surely going to see some big contracts rolling out again, starting this summer.

And that brings us back to Rutherford and the Canucks. The Canucks are one of 11 teams below the salary cap floor of $65 million for next season.

Zadorov, for instance, has said openly how much he likes it here. The Canucks, of course, are leaning on that. But players like Zadorov, naturally, aren’t saying the entire sentence out loud: “I love it here … as long as I get paid what I think I’m worth!”

And, really, fair enough.

They still have Tucker Poolman’s $2.5 million cap hit on the books for another year, so it’s more than likely they’ll be capped out again this season. But they’ve got lots of space to work with and five or six roster spots to fill.

Asked Friday whether he expected his general manager, Patrik Allvin, would have any signings to announce over the coming weeks, either before the June 28 draft or the opening of free agency on July 1, Rutherford answered cautiously.

“I don’t know,” he said. “There’s communication with some of these guys. It’s hard to read the situation.”

You can understand why he’d want to keep his club’s cards close to the vest. They certainly know that Zadorov, Lindholm and probably Joshua have a good case on the market. They’ll like see offers that would top the Canucks. Why wouldn’t those players take a look out the door to see what’s out there?

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I doubt Rutherford going to act like a kid in a candy store, but this is good news

Who doesn’t love a good mystery? And when it comes to Nikita Zadorov and his demands in contract talks with the Vancouver Canucks, the dollar figure it’s going to take to keep the big Russian defenceman on the payroll is very much a mystery.
With reports this week that Zadorov’s camp may be willing to accept a slight discount to get a deal done to stay in Vancouver, now it’s all about trying to solve the mystery of the amount necessary to get the deal across the finish line.
Certainly Zadorov and his agent Dan Milstein know their number, and it’s a pretty safe bet the Vancouver Canucks front office does, too – even if they don’t like it. That’s all part of negotiations and the Canucks still have more than three weeks to negotiate with Zadorov before he’s eligible to hit the open market. The 29-year-old has played out the final season of a two-year deal that paid him $3.75M annually. As an unrestricted free agent coming off a solid season and a strong playoff performance, Zadorov is in for a raise. Of that, there is no doubt. And he’s going to want term, too.

Consulting firm AFP Analytics projects Zadorov’s next deal in the five-year $26.5M range which would carry an annual average value of $5.3M per season. Using that as a baseline, what exactly qualifies as a discount?
An educated guess suggests the Zadorov camp is pushing for any new deal to start with a five. Is that the sticking point? Should the Canucks entertain the idea of going to $5M annually with a defenceman who slots in behind Quinn Hughes and Carson Soucy on the left side of the depth chart? And if they’re willing to commit to $5M per season will they offer that over a five year contract? That would make for $25M total compensation, which is slightly lower than the aforementioned projection. However, Zadorov may be willing to test the free-agent waters to see if he can get a sixth year on that type of deal, and that’s certainly something the Canucks will have to consider.It was clear by the club’s usage in the playoffs that Zadorov is seen internally as more than just a third pair guy. In 13 post-season outings, he was third among Canucks defencemen in TOI, logging 20:09 of ice time per game. He was also the third-most utilized defender on the penalty kill. On top of that, Zadorov tied for third on the team with four playoff goals and was even deployed at times as a net-front presence late in games when the Canucks were down and looking for the equalizer with the goaltender pulled for an extra attacker.
Term shouldn’t really be a sticking point. Or at least it shouldn’t be the deal breaker here. As both Ian Cole and Tyler Myers have shown this past season, veteran defencemen can play into their mid-30s and maintain a relatively high-level of performance – especially ones who focus more on the defensive side of the game. There’s every reason to think that Zadorov can continue to thrive for years in a structured system like the Canucks have in place under Rick Tocchet and Adam Foote.

It was clear by the club’s usage in the playoffs that Zadorov is seen internally as more than just a third pair guy. In 13 post-season outings, he was third among Canucks defencemen in TOI, logging 20:09 of ice time per game. He was also the third-most utilized defender on the penalty kill. On top of that, Zadorov tied for third on the team with four playoff goals and was even deployed at times as a net-front presence late in games when the Canucks were down and looking for the equalizer with the goaltender pulled for an extra attacker.
Term shouldn’t really be a sticking point. Or at least it shouldn’t be the deal breaker here. As both Ian Cole and Tyler Myers have shown this past season, veteran defencemen can play into their mid-30s and maintain a relatively high-level of performance – especially ones who focus more on the defensive side of the game. There’s every reason to think that Zadorov can continue to thrive for years in a structured system like the Canucks have in place under Rick Tocchet and Adam Foote.

The Canucks need to figure out if Zadorov at $5M is a want or a need. Could they prioritize a new deal for restricted free agent Filip Hronek and bring back Tyler Myers at a discounted rate and run things back with a top four of Hughes, Hronek, Soucy and Myers while finding a different way to fill the third pair spot on the left side to play with Noah Juulsen?

Or is it imperative to keep Zadorov’s size and intimidation factor in the fold?

Sifting through the noise that is out there and trying to make sense of it all, it feels like a six-year $30M offer would be enough to get Zadorov to stay and play in Vancouver.

The Canucks have the money to make it happen. But they have to decide if that’s the best approach to take this off-season in order to have money to spend to address needs elsewhere in the line-up.                

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Rip sais Figure out a way to keep Zadorov

1 hour ago, Bob Long said:

Hope this series is as short as possible.

Golf, or trade talks from Alvin?

And you may get it...