Jeremy Hronek

Kessel is old and likely not in very good NHL shape.

Although he'll be a free asset that should come at a relatively low cost, 

I'm not entirely sure what he'll be able to do at this stage of his career.

I half jokingly said this awhile back, but the Canucks would have likely been better off bringing Daniel Sedin out of retirement if they wanted a linemate for Lindholm.

1 hour ago, wai_lai416 said:

and the toronto model would have coulda worked.. if they spent the 4x 11mil+ on maybe 1 or 2 defensive player.. what's the biggest issue with toronto? defence. if they have one of those 11mil guy a 11mil norris caliber defenceman instead. every one of their defenceman plays down 1 step and maybe they are a much different team.. say reilly with a norris caliber defenceman as his partner instead of whatever he has now.. that might be a legit top pairing right there. 

You might be right but if you look at the past 15 years, any team with a relatively high cap hit to any one player doesn't win the Stanley Cup.  

For the longest time, any team that had a 10 million dollar player on their team didn't win a cup. Now, with the cap going up, that number (kiss of death cap hit) might be around $11 million.

Cost controlled elite talent + depth seems to have been the winning formula for the past 15 years or so.  

-Crosby and Ovechkin's teams never won cups from 2010-2015

-Chicago and LA saw steep declines once Kane, Toews, and Kopitar received 10+ million dollar contracts

-McDavid and Matthews have yet to win cups (many argue that Toronto screwed themselves long term with the Tavares signing).

-San Jose basically went into the shitter when they acquired Erik Karlsson and his contract.  

Despite winning only one cup, Boston has arguably been the most consistent team over the past 14-15 years due to their culture of players 'buying in' and accepting less money to serve the greater good (although Pasta has recently bucked that trend).  

4 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

i mean i wish EP would sign for 11mil 11.5mil but even at 12mil i still think it's doable.. yes it would sacrifice a little depth but at the end of the day i think it's better to overpay a little on players that you know would perform than pay players that you hope might perform. mikheyev is great defensively and what not.. but let's be real he might be worth 4mil and we paying him 4.75mil.. garland love the way he plays but he's prolly closer to 4.25-4.5? like that alone is the difference between EP at 11mil and ep at 12mil we just need to be smart at not overpaying the middle tier players and we'll be fine. with the current management i think we'll be fine.. just have to make sure we ain't overpaying joshua blugar etc in the offseason like they deserve a raise but not in the 3mil range 

To me, it sounds like you’re advocating something similar to the Toronto Maple Leafs model (ie being top heavy in terms of paying your top players premium money).  Unless I’m not understanding your perspective?

If you look at the past 15 years or so, the top players on each team had cap hits that were below market value which ultimately helped the team invest in more depth (Chicago, LA, and Boston from 2010-2015).  Pittsburgh and Washington also won cups from 2016, 2017, 2018 when the cap went higher which resulted in lower C.H.% to their top players that were on “grandfathered” contracts).  St. Louis, Tampa, and Colorado were similar (as was Florida and Vegas).

Meanwhile, teams that have paid more than 11 million to any one player have not won a cup.  That number used to be 10 but that has changed as the cap has risen (ie resulting in lower CH% to top players).  
 

Ultimately, what I’m saying, is that Petey needs to take one for the team if he’s serious about wanting to build a winner here. If he’s not, then maybe he needs to be moved.

8 hours ago, HKSR said:

Had a debate with @wai_lai416 and much respect for him going through the exercise of checking game by game, point by point to see how each of these players produce with and without the top players on each of their teams.

 

I did the exercise for myself and threw it into a spreadsheet (of course), and here are the results:

 

For each player, we look at his production at EV, PP, SH, and EN/PS (empty net / penalty shot).

 

For Petey, we look at his production with and without Hughes, Miller, and Boeser.

For Pasta, we look at his production with and without Mcavoy, Marchand, and Coyle.

 

Here is Petey's table:

 

 

Here is Pasta's Table:

 

 

TLDR:  So what do these tables tell us?

 

For Petey:

EV:  40% of his pts come with Miller, Hughes, or Boeser.

PP:  96% of his pts come with Miller, Hughes, or Boeser.

Totals:  62% of his pts come with Miller, Hughes, or Boeser.

 

For Pasta:

EV:  39% of his pts come with Mcavoy, Marchand, or Coyle.

PP:  76% of his pts come with Mcavoy, Marchand, or Coyle.

Totals:  56% of his pts come with Mcavoy, Marchand, or Coyle.

 

That means there is a 6% difference between Petey and Pasta when it comes to production without the top guys on each of their respective teams.  In other words, if these rates are consistent, over a 100 point season, Petey will generate 38 points without Miller, Hughes, or Boeser involved, and Pasta will generate 44 points without Mcavoy, Marchand, or Coyle involved.

 

This tells us that Pasta is a bit of a better play driver without the top guys, but Petey is really not that far off.  It really comes down to the PP numbers.  Pasta is better driving a PP without the help of the top guys, which really isn't all that surprising. 

 

At EV, Pasta and Petey are basically the same when it comes to play driving ability.

 

So from this perspective, I could see Petey making anywhere from $11M to $12M.  It would be a fair deal.

This is an excellent and insightful analysis.  Thank you for sharing. 

If we are feeling confident than Petey can carry his own line, I’d try the following:

Miller-Lindholm-Hoglander

PDG-Pettersson-Boeser 

Joshua-Bluegar-Garland

Mikheyev-Suter-Lafferty

Recreating the optimal environment for Elias Lindholm?

At his best, Lindholm was playing with Gaudreau and Tkachuk.  
 

Maybe one could do 

Pettersson-Lindholm-PDG?

Pettersson playing the role of Gaudreau and PDG being the crash and banger like MT (albeit, with far less skill obviously).

Hoglander-Miller-Boeser occupy line two.

Pettersson-Lindholm-PDG

Hoglander-Miller-Boeser

Joshua-Bluegar-Garland

Mikheyev-Suter-Lafferty

2 hours ago, TopChed said:

If Pete's making 12m we aren't going to be able to play him with 15m in wingers. The kid better learn how to produce with <6m on his line. 18m is plenty to spend on a 1st/2nd line

I’d go

Miller-Pettersson-PDG

Hoglander-Lindholm-Boeser 

Joshua-Bluegar-Garland

Mikheyev-Suter-Lafferty

Or, switch PDG and Hogs.  I think the above is fairly balanced in terms of rolling four lines, while keeping the powerful Miller/Petey combo together.  Lindholm gets some scoring wingers in Boeser and Hogs.

1 hour ago, VintageActualCanuckfan said:

JTM and Brock are a pair. You can try split them but you better do it now so you have time to correct.

Boeser does alot more impact than you see on your black and white tv.

My only concern is that Pettersson and Lindholm don’t seem to have much chemistry.  Miller and Boeser are a pair but Miller and Pettersson are also quite good together.  
 

Pettersson unfortunately, isn’t a bus driver.  He needs a guy like Miller to bring out the best in him.  Lindholm and Boeser should be able to clean up on a 2nd line.

1 hour ago, TopChed said:

Because it's not a recipe for post season success. It's predictable and easy to line match against. 

You could be onto something.  WCE from 2002-2004 never quite seemed to click in the playoffs while the Sedins/ Burrows didn’t produce at the same clip during the 2011 playoffs.

8 minutes ago, TopChed said:

Feel like Pete's gotta drive his own line not be a passenger on Millers bus. 

In theory, I believe you are correct, but why deviate from something that is clearly working?  Petey and Miller definitely have some chemistry.  
 

Now having said that, we will need to give Lindholm a playmate if the Lindholm experiment is going to work.

So, before we completely re-unite the Lotto Line, I suggest we try one final thing:

-Petey/Miller on your top line

-Lindholm/Boeser on the 2nd line

-Joshua/Bluegar/Garland on the 3rd line

-Suter/Mikheyev on the 4th line

Miller-Pettersson-Hoglander

PDG-Lindholm-Boeser

Joshua-Bluegar-Garland

Mikheyev-Suter-Lafferty

Try something like that. 
 

If that doesn’t work, go back to the original Lotto line and turn a

Mikeheyev-Lindholm-Suter line into an elite shutdown line. 

3:10 AM thoughts from abroad:

-Keep Miller and Pettersson together

-Try Lindholm and Boeser together on another line.

Miller-Pettersson-Lafferty

PDG-Lindholm-Boeser

Joshua-Bluegar-Garland

Mikheyev-Suter-Hoglander

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Petey and Lindholm are better centres than Miller and Couture. 

Fair enough. Tocchet could adjust the lines accordingly:

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Couture-Lindholm-Suter

Joshua-Bluegar-Garland

Hoglander-Aman-Lafferty

To San Jose:

-Tyler Myers (6M)

-Ilya Mikheyev (4.75)

-2025 1st rounder

To Vancouver:

-Logan Couture (8M)

-Jan Rutta (2.75M)

Why the Sharks do this:

-Although Couture is a Sharks legend, getting his 8 million dollar cap hit off the books without retention would be a massive win for the rebuilding Sharks.  
 

Why the Canucks do this:

-The Canucks are going to need another legit top 6 forward if the Elias Lindholm experiment is going to work.  The problem however, is that acquiring another good top 6 forward will not be easy.  For example, someone like Jake Guentzel will likely cost one of Willander or Lekkerimaki.  Hence - The Canucks acquiring a Top 6 “bloated” contract so that they simultaneously give Lindholm a linemate without giving up too much in the way of picks or prospects.

-Yes, the Canucks having Couture’s contract on the books will likely be awful in a few years, but for the time being, Couture is the exact type of guy that you want in the playoffs.  Come April, Couture’s rust should be long gone.

Pettersson-Miller-Boeser

Suter-Couture-Lindholm

Joshua-Bluegar-Garland

Hoglander-Aman-Lafferty

PDG

Hughes-Hronek

Soucy-Rutta

Cole-Zadorov

Juulsen

Demko

DeSmith

That Couture/Lindholm/Suter line would possibly be in the running for best shut down line in the league and should be able to produce decent secondary offense (assuming that Couture works off his rust before April).

Go big or go home?

4 minutes ago, IBatch said:

To be fair, both Laine and Puljarvi were the ones right there with MT.  Then PLD.   After that, a mixed bag.   One thing I absolutely agree with is the WJ's are overrated as far as draft impact.   This is a great example of that (and not the only one). 

I'm trying to remember off the top of my head who I wanted from each draft:

2014:  Sam Reinhart (via Horvat + 6th)

2015:  Brandon Carlo

2016:  Pierre Luc Dubois (if he dropped)

2017:  Miro Heiskanen (if he dropped)

2018:  Noah Dobson (didn't think QH was going to drop)

2019:  Moritz Seider

2020: N/A

2021:  Had my heart, mind, and penis set on Dylan Guenther before the lovely OEL trade went down

2022:  Denton Matyechuck

2023:  Tom Willander!   

1 hour ago, Bob Long said:

 

I was at Rogers when Benning made the OJ pick. The confusion and anger was real. 

I remember that 2016 draft.  I had personally hoped for Pierre Luc Dubois but was quite surprised when we chose OJ for Tkachuk.  

My guess is that Benning saw OJ as the future Alex Elder replacement but JB forgot the first rule of thumb imo; BPA.  

In all seriousness, can you imagine if we had drafted Charlie McAvoy instead?  

And then, in 2021, trading for Hampus Lindholm instead of OEL?  

My favorite memory of the 2018 draft was HF Canucks and how they already hated Brady Tkachuk because he was the type of guy that Benning would probably like. @IBatch

On 2/7/2024 at 1:44 PM, Sativika said:

Leafs put too much emphasis on the front. You know, too many millionaire forwards.  So, they suffer out back and in net. I don't feel sorry for 'em at all. I was joyed by their lack of playoff success in this era. That being said...............

 

Obviously my team are the Canucks. We had our trials and tribulations for sure. It took a few tries, but we finally slayed the dragon, right? 

 

Our present roster has proven that they're a great team. That we're contenders. Who'd have thought. I mean I didn't figure on the kind of success we've garnered thus far this season. But it's happened and it's f*ckin' awesome! And...........Oh.....Mr. Tochett. Your record is safe. Coilers lost.  Hahaha!!!!!

Not only did the Leafs put too much emphasis on the front but they paid all of their stars premium contracts.  No one took a hometown discount to serve the greater good since management had already paid UFA Tavares a premium contract (and made him captain).  
 

As counter-intuitive as it may sound, the Tavares signing just may have ended up costing the Leafs a cup or two.

10 hours ago, Rick_theRyper said:

Time to shake up the lines was period 2. Even the 3rd solely because they've been so good not to shake them up, reward them. Call up Bains let's see if he can play in the big leagues before the playoffs

 

Joshua Petterson Lindholm

Hoglander Miller Boeser

Mikheyev Blueger Garland

Bains Suter Lafferty 

 

PP 1 

Zadorov net front 

Petey Miller Boeser 

Hughes 

 

Try the old Buff technique haha could work.

PP needs something new, it's been on and off weak all year. Now it's giving up shorties every game. 

 Pettersson-Miller-Boeser

Suter-Lindholm-Garland

Joshua-Bluegar-Lafferty

Mikheyev-Aman-Hoglander

This thread has made me realize just how mindfucked many Canuck fans became after the 2011 finals.  
 

13 years ago, lol.

Thankfully, no one on the current Canucks cares about 2011. 
 

Onwards and upwards.

Canucks got their first taste of adversity this season and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Learn and grow before the playoffs.

Bumperoo.  Kuzmenko switched to Mikheyev.

9 minutes ago, Mc1laren said:

Or the 2022-2023 Bruins

Or the 2005-06 Red Wings

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Who had Elias and Elias as the worst defensive players on the ice on their BINGO card tonight? 

Nucks might need to go back to the Lotto line if they have 1-2 more games like this.  
 

Turn Suter-Lindholm-Mikheyev into a shut down line. 

On 2/7/2024 at 11:16 AM, Bretzky said:

When watching the game tonight vs a really good eastern conference team, the Canes, I kinda thought how the way we are built is what would have Leaf fans creaming their jeans. And we’re kinda built in an eastern conference way now with Rutherford etal.

Be careful with this shit.

This is the kind of arrogance that will piss off the Hockey Gods.

With respect to our beloved Canucks, the Leafs have had many solid regular seasons in recent history. Yes, they’ve tasted their fair share of black sausage when it has mattered most, but it just goes to show how difficult playoff hockey can really be.  

1 hour ago, PistolPete13 said:

Interesting. EP has 388 points in 376 games played. 102 points last year  and 65 points in 51 games this year. 
 These numbers don’t jive with what you’re saying at all. 

EP’s point totals this season don’t jive with what I’m seeing from him on a consistent basis. 
 

43 minutes ago, iinatcc said:

 

Considering how small the team's window is and how much the Canucks gave up to acquire Lindholm, expectations this year have been raised. 

 

If this team can't hang with the best. Then this whole thing is a disaster 

It’s one game.

The Canucks were 18-2-4 prior to tonight’s game while Boston lost to an inferior team in the previous game.

They were clearly more hungry tonight.  
 

Canucks lost to San Jose and Columbus earlier this year.  Did the sky fall afterwards?