[Report/Rumour] Elias Pettersson Contract Talks

[Junkyard Dog]

7 minutes ago, cripplereh said:

With COVID the cap stayed the same and should have gone up this season.To be fair that's why it should jump more.In two years yes it should be over 90 mill.

 

If not Bettman should have walking papers as owners want it up ASAP.

 

Do owners really want significant cap-ceiling increases? I have heard more of the NHLPA wanting it.

 

NHL has been wanting more games in the regular season and have been using that as a talking point to the NHLPA for raising the cap significantly which the NHLPA doesn't want. 

 

 

Edited January 11 by Junkyard Dog

[Elias Pettersson]

5 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

 

It could come down to a shorter-term deal that potentially walks him to free agency. 

 

Might end up being able to delay a mega-cap hit to when we could afford it better. Still would be getting quite the raise. 

 

I don’t think the number will be much different even on a shorter deal.  Matthews only signed for 4 years and he still got maximum value on his deal…

[43isprime]

38 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Let’s make this real simple.  Petey on the open market is worth up to $12 million.  If Allvin can sign him for a bit less then he’s a genius.  You even admit that Petey can get $12 million on the open market, so what exactly is the issue?

 

As @wai_lai416 already pointed out it’s not EP’s problem that previous and current management have overpaid guys to screw up our cap.  It’s not Petey’s problem that we are paying a 3rd liner $5 million, a guy in the press box $5.5 million, a bottom pairing Dman $6 million, and on top of all of that we need to keep paying a guy for the next 7 years who is not even on the roster.

 

Those are bad decisions by management that have nothing to do with Petey’s contract negotiations and nothing to do with his next contract.  Petey on the open market is an $11-12 million player.  You even admit this yourself.  He’s not going to take a discount because of mismanagement of the cap by our GM’s…

 

I'm not saying he should pay for management mistakes. I'm simply following your logic.

 

You want to compare our "cap structure" to VGK by lumping Pettersson in with Miller and Hughes (who are both outperforming their cap hits by a significant margin) to say that these three compare favorably to Stone, Eichel, and Pietrangelo, who make a similar % of the cap if Pettersson were to sign at 12m. You're saying that our cap structure can sustain Pettersson at 12m in part because of how well Miller and Hughes at their cap hits stack up against the three VGK players.

 

I simply pointed out that a team cap structure consists of more than three contracts. I pointed out that VGK had Theodore at 5.25m, Marchessault playing Conn Smythe level hockey at 5m, and that they were significantly over the cap when they won the Cup.

 

I also pointed out that our team "cap structure" includes the OEL buyout penalty. Wai_lai416 kindly also added that we have several very inefficient contracts who, unfortunately, aren't playing at Conn Smythe levels.

 

This is your logic.

 

Furthermore, I'll ask why you can cite the efficiency of Hughes and Miller as reasons the cap structure can support Pettersson at 12m, while ignoring the downsides associated with the cap structure's inefficiencies and penalties. Again, this is your logic.

 

Also...how much less should Pettersson make (as a percentage of the cap) than the two greatest centers of their generation?

 

In any case, go ahead and say Pettersson should sign at 12m because that's what he's worth on the market. That's fine. But it's nonsensical to try to compare the ensuing "cap structure" to that of the VGK or Penguins (who, incidentally, employed the abovementioned two greatest centers of their generation).

 

Edited January 11 by 43isprime

[Elias Pettersson]

19 minutes ago, 43isprime said:

 

I'm not saying he should pay for management mistakes. I'm simply following your logic.

 

You want to compare our "cap structure" to VGK by lumping Pettersson in with Miller and Hughes (who are both outperforming their cap hits by a significant margin) to say that these three compare favorably to Stone, Eichel, and Pietrangelo, who make a similar % of the cap if Pettersson were to sign at 12m. You're saying that our cap structure can sustain Pettersson at 12m in part because of how well Miller and Hughes at their cap hits stack up against the three VGK players.

 

I simply pointed out that a team cap structure consists of more than three contracts. I pointed out that VGK had Theodore at 5.25m, Marchessault playing Conn Smythe level hockey at 5m, and that they were significantly over the cap when they won the Cup.

 

I also pointed out that our team "cap structure" includes the OEL buyout penalty. Wai_lai416 kindly also added that we have several very inefficient contracts who, unfortunately, aren't playing at Conn Smythe levels.

 

This is your logic.

 

Furthermore, I'll ask why you can cite the efficiency of Hughes and Miller as reasons the cap structure can support Pettersson at 12m, while ignoring the downsides associated with the cap structure's inefficiencies and penalties. Again, this is your logic.

 

Also...how much less should Pettersson make (as a percentage of the cap) than the two greatest centers of their generation?

 

In any case, go ahead and say Pettersson should sign at 12m because that's what he's worth on the market. That's fine. But it's nonsensical to try to compare the ensuing "cap structure" to that of the VGK or Penguins (who, incidentally, employed the abovementioned two greatest centers of their generation).

 

 

I don’t really get the argument that you are trying to make.  Pittsburgh won two cups with their two centres taking up over 26% of their cap.  What difference does it make that they were generational?  Does this mean that they can win a cup with a bunch of plugs playing on the team?  Did Gretzky win his cups with a bunch of plugs?  Even Gretzky needed talent around him to win it all.  Same with Lemieux.  Lemieux was better than Crosby, but he still needed Stevens, Tocchet and others to win a cup.

 

Yes, a team consists of more than 3 players.  That is why it is up to Allvin to figure things out.  It’s not up to Petey to sign for only $9 million so that Allvin has an extra $3 million to play with.  That’s not how it works.

 

Again, for the last time you even admit yourself that Petey is worth up to $12 million but according to you he shouldn’t be signing for that amount because he’s not generational.  I don’t even understand the rest of your argument, so it’s probably best to end this discussion.  

[wai_lai416]

2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

I don’t really get the argument that you are trying to make.  Pittsburgh won two cups with their two centres taking up over 26% of their cap.  What difference does it make that they were generational?  Does this mean that they can win a cup with a bunch of plugs playing on the team?  Did Gretzky win his cups with a bunch of plugs?  Even Gretzky needed talent around him to win it all.  Same with Lemieux.  Lemieux was better than Crosby, but he still needed Stevens, Tocchet and others to win a cup.

 

Yes, a team consists of more than 3 players.  That is why it is up to Allvin to figure things out.  It’s not up to Petey to sign for only $9 million so that Allvin has an extra $3 million to play with.  That’s not how it works.

 

Again, for the last time you even admit yourself that Petey is worth up to $12 million but according to you he shouldn’t be signing for that amount because he’s not generational.  I don’t even understand the rest of your argument, so it’s probably best to end this discussion.  

Generational players usually signs for 14-16% of the cap at the time of signing 

star player signs for 10-14 of the cap at the time of signing 

factors that plays into whether they are closer to 10 or 14 depends on age production position.

ep is projected at around 13% of the cap so near the top.

is he a center? Yes

is he at the start of his prime age? Yes

is he top 10 centres in the league? Yes prolly closer to top 6-7

is he top 10 in scoring? Yes he’s been top 10 in scoring ever since green firing till now so that’s 2 years and by the end of this season 2.5 years.

 

let say he signs for 11.5 that would put him 7th highest cap hit before drai sign a new contract so prolly 8th when all said and done.  Top 8 salary for a top 8 scorer doesn’t seem like a blasphemy like some of you are making it out like? We should be thankful the management never bothered getting him any proven talents to play with him ever. Imagine if he played with QH hronek primarily along with a proven top 6 or if the lotto line stays and continue to click.. we might be talking like Matthew’s number 

 

 

 

[HKSR]

4 hours ago, cripplereh said:

With COVID the cap stayed the same and should have gone up this season.To be fair that's why it should jump more.In two years yes it should be over 90 mill.

 

If not Bettman should have walking papers as owners want it up ASAP.

It's already doing its catchup with a $4m+ increase for next year.  That's basically 2 years worth of increases.  

 

In 2 years it probably will be around $90m.  Doubt it'll be $92m+ though.  That's another large increase. 

[wai_lai416]

41 minutes ago, HKSR said:

It's already doing its catchup with a $4m+ increase for next year.  That's basically 2 years worth of increases.  

 

In 2 years it probably will be around $90m.  Doubt it'll be $92m+ though.  That's another large increase. 

The cap is expected to go up 10-12 mil over the next 3 season or was. Not sure if that’s changed. But when all said and done we will prolly see the cap at around 93-95mil within the first couple years of ep eventual contract 1 player at 12 mil is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be when ur other top 2 is making 8 and 7.85.. what’s more important is to find value in the middle 6 and have 5 mil players playing like a 7-8mil player rather than a 5mil player playing and producing like a 3-4 mil player.. hell I’ll even settle for 5 mil player playing like a 5mil player.. but people here rather we pay less for the star players so we can get more overpaid players to provide depth zzz. There’s not 1 contract in the middle or bottom 6 or 2nd/3rd pairing we can say is exceeding their cap hit. Hoglander right now is close. Laffety have fallen off quite a bit and looks more like a blip. 

[BPA]

4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

I don’t really get the argument that you are trying to make.  Pittsburgh won two cups with their two centres taking up over 26% of their cap.  What difference does it make that they were generational?  Does this mean that they can win a cup with a bunch of plugs playing on the team?  Did Gretzky win his cups with a bunch of plugs?  Even Gretzky needed talent around him to win it all.  Same with Lemieux.  Lemieux was better than Crosby, but he still needed Stevens, Tocchet and others to win a cup.

 

Yes, a team consists of more than 3 players.  That is why it is up to Allvin to figure things out.  It’s not up to Petey to sign for only $9 million so that Allvin has an extra $3 million to play with.  That’s not how it works.

 

Again, for the last time you even admit yourself that Petey is worth up to $12 million but according to you he shouldn’t be signing for that amount because he’s not generational.  I don’t even understand the rest of your argument, so it’s probably best to end this discussion.  

Really??

 

There is a reason why they are called Generational.  Basically they can put their team on their backs and lead them to wins.  And they do it more often than not.

 

The only one on the Canucks that is close right now would be QH. 
 

But I digress.  The bar has been raised by the Nylander signing.  So we will see if EP is “willing” to accept the Canucks offer.

[HKSR]

45 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

The cap is expected to go up 10-12 mil over the next 3 season or was. Not sure if that’s changed. But when all said and done we will prolly see the cap at around 93-95mil within the first couple years of ep eventual contract 1 player at 12 mil is not as bad as everyone makes it out to be when ur other top 2 is making 8 and 7.85.. what’s more important is to find value in the middle 6 and have 5 mil players playing like a 7-8mil player rather than a 5mil player playing and producing like a 3-4 mil player.. hell I’ll even settle for 5 mil player playing like a 5mil player.. but people here rather we pay less for the star players so we can get more overpaid players to provide depth zzz. There’s not 1 contract in the middle or bottom 6 or 2nd/3rd pairing we can say is exceeding their cap hit. Hoglander right now is close. Laffety have fallen off quite a bit and looks more like a blip. 

I don't see it.  We're talking a 12% to 14% increase in the cap in 3 years?  With the amount of issues surrounding broadcasting deals and a recessionary economic environment, I'd be shocked to see revenues for the league jump by those kinds of figures.  We'll have to wait and see.  I think an 8 to 10% increase over 3 years is much more likely.

 

Attendance around the league is only seeing a net 2.96% increase overall from last December to this December.  It's not the be all and end all of revenues analysis, but it's a significant piece and it gives us a good idea of what the league revenue pattern might look like:

https://theathletic.com/5107905/2023/12/05/nhl-team-attendance-analysis/

Given these attendance figures, it wouldn't surprise me if the projected $87.7M is reduced slightly for 2024-25.

 

In terms of value contracts, what's putting us over the top right now is Blueger and Joshua playing like $3M players.  Garland is actually playing under his value, but as a collective, that 3rd line is providing positive value.

 

And as you mentioned, Hoglander is exceeding his cap hit as well.  He's playing like a $2.5 to $3M guy as well.

 

Miller, Hughes, and Demko are also playing above their cap hit.  Same with Petey this year. 

 

When all is said and done, if we can expect the 3rd line to continue with their chemistry next year, Petey at $12M will be fine because Miller is incredible value.  We're very fortunate to have him.

[wai_lai416]

10 minutes ago, BPA said:

Really??

 

There is a reason why they are called Generational.  Basically they can put their team on their backs and lead them to wins.  And they do it more often than not.

 

The only one on the Canucks that is close right now would be QH. 
 

But I digress.  The bar has been raised by the Nylander signing.  So we will see if EP is “willing” to accept the Canucks offer.

lol qh is no where even close to being generational… the only defenceman in the last 10 years is makar and before that lidstrom. Generational = they are so much better than everyone else.. nothing to do with they can put their team on their backs and lead them to wins.. if that’s the case Johnathan quick is a generational goalie?? Coz he put the team on his back and lead them to win more often than not during the 3 cup runs. Is Toews and Kane generational? Is kucherov generational? It’s not like EP is the one that sets the market on how much he’s worth. Other teams and players are setting it. So why should he make less than other players that accomplished around the same? 

[wai_lai416]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

I don't see it.  We're talking a 12% to 14% increase in the cap in 3 years?  With the amount of issues surrounding broadcasting deals and a recessionary economic environment, I'd be shocked to see revenues for the league jump by those kinds of figures.  We'll have to wait and see.  I think an 8 to 10% increase over 3 years is much more likely.

 

Attendance around the league is only seeing a net 2.96% increase overall from last December to this December.  It's not the be all and end all of revenues analysis, but it's a significant piece and it gives us a good idea of what the league revenue pattern might look like:

https://theathletic.com/5107905/2023/12/05/nhl-team-attendance-analysis/

Given these attendance figures, it wouldn't surprise me if the projected $87.7M is reduced slightly for 2024-25.

 

In terms of value contracts, what's putting us over the top right now is Blueger and Joshua playing like $3M players.  Garland is actually playing under his value, but as a collective, that 3rd line is providing positive value.

 

And as you mentioned, Hoglander is exceeding his cap hit as well.  He's playing like a $2.5 to $3M guy as well.

 

Miller, Hughes, and Demko are also playing above their cap hit.  Same with Petey this year. 

 

When all is said and done, if we can expect the 3rd line to continue with their chemistry next year, Petey at $12M will be fine because Miller is incredible value.  We're very fortunate to have him.

I don’t think the attendance will matter much. The money from the tv deal they signed in the states haven’t even made its way to the owners pocket yet. I can still see it go up by 4 mil the next 3 season and then slow down and crawling their way to 100 and eventually stay static 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

I don’t think the attendance will matter much. The money from the tv deal they signed in the states haven’t even made its way to the owners pocket yet. I can still see it go up by 4 mil the next 3 season and then slow down and crawling their way to 100 and eventually stay static 

I think you've got it backwards.  The ESPN deal is already into its 3rd year.  Then the Bally Sports bankruptcy hasn't even made its way through the system yet.  On top of that, it sounds like Rogers is gonna dump its exclusive rights in 2 seasons too due to its "money-hemorrhaging deal with the National Hockey League." (https://oilersnation.com/news/nhl-notebook-rogers-reportedly-wont-maintain-exclusive-rights-following-money-hemorrhaging-12-year-deal)

 

All of that, on top of a recessionary economic environment overall?  I just can't see huge revenue gains for the smallest of the big 4 sports leagues in North America.

[Northern_Nuck]

6 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

I don’t really get the argument that you are trying to make.  Pittsburgh won two cups with their two centres taking up over 26% of their cap.  What difference does it make that they were generational?  Does this mean that they can win a cup with a bunch of plugs playing on the team?  Did Gretzky win his cups with a bunch of plugs?  Even Gretzky needed talent around him to win it all.  Same with Lemieux.  Lemieux was better than Crosby, but he still needed Stevens, Tocchet and others to win a cup.

 

Yes, a team consists of more than 3 players.  That is why it is up to Allvin to figure things out.  It’s not up to Petey to sign for only $9 million so that Allvin has an extra $3 million to play with.  That’s not how it works.

 

Again, for the last time you even admit yourself that Petey is worth up to $12 million but according to you he shouldn’t be signing for that amount because he’s not generational.  I don’t even understand the rest of your argument, so it’s probably best to end this discussion.  

Soooo, how much you signing for Blue eyes? 

[BPA]

1 hour ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol qh is no where even close to being generational… the only defenceman in the last 10 years is makar and before that lidstrom. Generational = they are so much better than everyone else.. nothing to do with they can put their team on their backs and lead them to wins.. if that’s the case Johnathan quick is a generational goalie?? Coz he put the team on his back and lead them to win more often than not during the 3 cup runs. Is Toews and Kane generational? Is kucherov generational? It’s not like EP is the one that sets the market on how much he’s worth. Other teams and players are setting it. So why should he make less than other players that accomplished around the same? 

 

Fair enough.  If QH is nowhere near Generational, then neither is EP.

 

That being said…TOR greatly inflated the salaries with their stupid signings.  And as mentioned before…Nylander signing is the new benchmark.

[BPA]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

I think you've got it backwards.  The ESPN deal is already into its 3rd year.  Then the Bally Sports bankruptcy hasn't even made its way through the system yet.  On top of that, it sounds like Rogers is gonna dump its exclusive rights in 2 seasons too due to its "money-hemorrhaging deal with the National Hockey League." (https://oilersnation.com/news/nhl-notebook-rogers-reportedly-wont-maintain-exclusive-rights-following-money-hemorrhaging-12-year-deal)

 

All of that, on top of a recessionary economic environment overall?  I just can't see huge revenue gains for the smallest of the big 4 sports leagues in North America.

No kidding.  It’s like people think things are back to Status Quo after Covid.  It’s not.  We are (or will be) in a recession.  The inflation (interest rates) is only starting to come down this year.  Food prices have gone up.

 

After the big cap increase next season, I think it’ll be smaller increments ($1M) per year.  Unless NHL can generate more Advertising revenue.

[Coryberg]

2 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

 There’s not 1 contract in the middle or bottom 6 or 2nd/3rd pairing we can say is exceeding their cap hit. Hoglander right now is close. Laffety have fallen off quite a bit and looks more like a blip. 

Bottom/middle 6 bargains...

 

Hoglander 

Suter

Joshua 

Blueger

Lafferty 

Juulsen 

Desmith

 

If we could extend them at their cap hits I would sign all of them to 3 years in a heartbeat

Edited January 11 by Coryberg

[wai_lai416]

4 minutes ago, Coryberg said:

Bottom/middle 6 bargains...

 

Hoglander 

Suter

Joshua 

Blueger

Lafferty 

Juulsen 

Desmith

 

If we could extend them at their cap hits I would sign all of them to 3 years in a heartbeat

lol none of those are a “bargain” as in exceeding what they are paid.. maybe except hoglander and suter. They are exactly what they are paid.. a 3rd 4th liner playing at a 3rd 4th liner level but playing it very well. No one in their right mind would pay them extra 1-2 mil. When I say bargain I mean paid like a 3rd liner but producing like a top 6. Desmith is playing very well for a backup.. but it’s a backup not a 1b not sure how much more u wanna pay a backup

[Lemon Face]

10 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol none of those are a “bargain” as in exceeding what they are paid.. maybe except hoglander and suter. They are exactly what they are paid.. a 3rd 4th liner playing at a 3rd 4th liner level but playing it very well. No one in their right mind would pay them extra 1-2 mil. When I say bargain I mean paid like a 3rd liner but producing like a top 6. Desmith is playing very well for a backup.. but it’s a backup not a 1b not sure how much more u wanna pay a backup

Old fox is in the office.Alvin good too.Why are people afraid of FO decision making regarding players contracts.Who found these players playing now,will find other batch of players if needed.If FO thinks Pettersson is good for 12 mill,you cant argue.You might not like it,but he is our star player,and hell good one

[Elias Pettersson]

3 hours ago, BPA said:

Really??

 

There is a reason why they are called Generational.  Basically they can put their team on their backs and lead them to wins.  And they do it more often than not.

 

The only one on the Canucks that is close right now would be QH. 
 

But I digress.  The bar has been raised by the Nylander signing.  So we will see if EP is “willing” to accept the Canucks offer.

McDavid’s next contract will be in the $17-18 million range. So Petey at $12 million is actually good value. 
 

Good luck with Edmonton winning a cup with an $18 million player. Pretty sure Draisaitl walks after next season. 
 

FYI, even generational players need a team to win it all. Gretzky wasn’t generational, he was centennial. Once in a century player. And he still needed 5-6 star players around him to win a cup. 

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, Northern_Nuck said:

Soooo, how much you signing for Blue eyes? 

$12 million. Book it. 

[Northern_Nuck]

9 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

$12 million. Book it. 

How many years you staying in Vancouver for? 

[Elias Pettersson]

11 minutes ago, Northern_Nuck said:

How many years you staying in Vancouver for? 

8 years baby…

[Northern_Nuck]

10 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

8 years baby…

And are you going to win us a Cup Elias??

[HKSR]

5 hours ago, Coryberg said:

Bottom/middle 6 bargains...

 

Hoglander 

Suter

Joshua 

Blueger

Lafferty 

Juulsen 

Desmith

 

If we could extend them at their cap hits I would sign all of them to 3 years in a heartbeat

 

4 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol none of those are a “bargain” as in exceeding what they are paid.. maybe except hoglander and suter. They are exactly what they are paid.. a 3rd 4th liner playing at a 3rd 4th liner level but playing it very well. No one in their right mind would pay them extra 1-2 mil. When I say bargain I mean paid like a 3rd liner but producing like a top 6. Desmith is playing very well for a backup.. but it’s a backup not a 1b not sure how much more u wanna pay a backup

You gotta be trolling...

 

Joshua is on pace for 20+ goals and 40 points.

Blueger technically is on a 51 point pace (likely finishes with 40ish points).

Lafferty on pace for 18 goals and 36 points.

 

All 3 of these guys are playing like $3M+ players.  They all make substantially less (Joshua and Lafferty < $1M).  That's exceeding their cap.  Not sure how you could say they're not.

[HKSR]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

$12 million. Book it. 

No!  You book it!  Hurry up and sign on the damn line already!  Sheesh...