[Report/Rumour] Elias Pettersson Contract Talks

[Bob Long]

2 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

That first bit is leverage, that can't be understated. It's not an agent's job to care about the cap structure of NHL organizations beyond how it impacts their clients. Not being able to hammer out other deals places pressure on Allvin and co to get something done. Management get paid to sort out that puzzle, agents get paid to get players as much as they can.

 

Having a hardball agent also dampens the possibility of the Canucks getting much of a discount from either Pettersson or Hughes imo, and their sitting out in the past is worth highlighting because I think some folks have forgotten that bit. The stakes are higher now than they were when Pettersson and Hughes were negotiating their last deals, the numbers will be much bigger. 

 

The Canucks will likely end up paying market value for Pettersson imo, most stars don't take discounts. Wouldn't be surprised if Hughes ends up being paid more than Pettersson when it's all said and done. 

 

it is leverage, which is why the whole "I don't want to distract my team mates" thing is a bit hard to swallow when it goes on for a long time. Everyone knows Petey's AAV will have a direct effect on who's coming back next season. 

 

 

[43isprime]

19 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

There is literally only one generational player in today’s game.  After McDavid every other player slots below him.  It was the same when Crosby played.  If Crosby is at 14% of the cap, that means every other player should have been well below him.  Other than Ovechkin.  That wasn’t the case.  Malkin was not a generational talent even though you labeled him as such.  And his contract was identical to Crosby’s.  

 

When Pittsburgh won the cup Crosby was only the 6th highest paid player in the league.  PK Subban was getting paid more than him.  Corey Perry had a contract almost identical to Crosby.  Were those players generational?  Jonathan Toews was the highest paid player in the league in 2015.  Was he generational?  Is Toews talked about in the same sentence as Crosby?

 

As I already stated, the cap changes every year and contracts get outdated all the time.  Matthews and MacKinnon both get paid more than McDavid right now.  That’s because the cap has gone up.  So like me and Wai have been trying to explain to you the only thing that matters is the players contract as a percentage of the cap.  The actual salary is irrelevant.  

 

Petey should be getting paid anywhere from 11-14% of the cap.  That’s his market value.  Whether he is better than other players getting paid less is irrelevant as those players now have outdated contracts.

 

Question for you. What should Petey be getting paid right now?  $9 million?  $10 million?  You said his market value is $12 million, so should he not get paid that amount, or are you trying to suggest he needs to take a discount because he is only the 3rd best player on the team?

 

FYI, after tonight’s game, I don’t think you can say Petey is only the 3rd best player on the team.  He is borderline generational right now…

 

You finally said it. Crosby was signed at BELOW market value. So why are you comparing the Canucks signing Pettersson AT market value to the Penguins winning the Cup with Crosby BELOW market value? 

 

Please don't say what you said before about "why does it matter that Crosby was generational?". I think we can all understand that Crosby at x% cap hit provides more on-ice value than Pettersson at the same % cap hit.

 

Let me be clear - go ahead and yell all you want about how Pettersson can get 12m on the market. But your reasons as to why the Canucks can sign Pettersson at 12m AND contend for the Cup are completely wrong. 

 

Your Pittsburgh comparison holds no water for the reason above. Your VGK comparison - I already explained to you why this example was irrelevant

 

You seem to be misunderstanding your own arguments. Signing off for good this time. Cheers.

 

[Coconuts]

7 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

it is leverage, which is why the whole "I don't want to distract my team mates" thing is a bit hard to swallow when it goes on for a long time. Everyone knows Petey's AAV will have a direct effect on who's coming back next season. 

 

 

 

I hear what you're saying, but the flip side of this is what do folks expect Pettersson to say that doesn't involve canned answers? Particularly in a rabid Canadian market where anything a player says or doesn't say can be run with and turned into a story? 

Edited January 12 by Coconuts

[Bob Long]

Just now, Coconuts said:

 

I hear what you're saying, but the flip side of this is what do folks expect Pettersson to say that doesn't involved canned answers? Particularly in a rabid Canadian market where anything a player says or doesn't say can be run with and turned into a story? 

 

nothing really. When I compare it to Miller who was happy to be here long term and took a small discount it stands out as maybe a bit more selfish? dunno. Petey is awesome but my feeling is this should have been done by now. 

 

[Coconuts]

3 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

nothing really. When I compare it to Miller who was happy to be here long term and took a small discount it stands out as maybe a bit more selfish? dunno. Petey is awesome but my feeling is this should have been done by now. 

 

 

I view the Miller bit as being different, I don't believe Miller was as willing to bet on his ability to replicate his success as Pettersson is. Miller's also a little older, which matters imo. Miller was also signed under a flat cap in what were arguably still Covid times, he signed on September 2nd, 2022, whereas Pettersson's extension will kick in as the league is beginning to see cap jumps again. 

 

It's been said Miller left money on the table, and maybe he did, but he also gave up his opportunity to chase a larger bag for surefire financial security and that was his choice. 

[Provost]

16 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

That first bit is leverage, that can't be understated. It's not an agent's job to care about the cap structure of NHL organizations beyond how it impacts their clients. Not being able to hammer out other deals places pressure on Allvin and co to get something done. Management get paid to sort out that puzzle, agents get paid to get players as much as they can.

 

Having a hardball agent also dampens the possibility of the Canucks getting much of a discount from either Pettersson or Hughes imo, and their sitting out in the past is worth highlighting because I think some folks have forgotten that bit. The stakes are higher now than they were when Pettersson and Hughes were negotiating their last deals, the numbers will be much bigger. 

 

The Canucks will likely end up paying market value for Pettersson imo, most stars don't take discounts. Wouldn't be surprised if Hughes ends up being paid more than Pettersson when it's all said and done. 

Yep, it doesn’t seem like a set up for leaving any money on the table at all.  To me that means a bigger number than Nylander, maybe substantially.

 

It should be a player’s job and their representative’s to figure out more than one priority for a player.  Chance to win, lifestyle, where they want to live, etc.  So many veteran players at the ends of their careers end up chasing a Cup on short term low dollar contracts.  So few try to maximize their chances when they are in their prime.  It seems like for a lot of guys the contact number is about ego  and how their number compares with other players.  If you are in a situation where the tam spends to the cap, you have a solid chance of winning, live in an city you like, and have teammates you like… shouldn’t that weigh against the difference between $110-120 million in career earnings will make in your life?

 

They sure seem to be having fun now at work, and sure are making pointed comments about revolving wingers.  They can play a little part in fixing that.

[Odd.]

When management is on record saying essentially they’ll do whatever it takes to re sign Pettersson, that’s all you need to know that Pettersson has all the leverage in negotiations.

 

Canucks will pay him whatever he wants. It’s him that’s holding things back, betting on himself. This next contract won’t be cheap.

Edited January 12 by Odd.

[Coconuts]

14 minutes ago, Provost said:

Yep, it doesn’t seem like a set up for leaving any money on the table at all.  To me that means a bigger number than Nylander, maybe substantially.

 

It should be a player’s job and their representative’s to figure out more than one priority for a player.  Chance to win, lifestyle, where they want to live, etc.  So many veteran players at the ends of their careers end up chasing a Cup on short term low dollar contracts.  So few try to maximize their chances when they are in their prime.  It seems like for a lot of guys the contact number is about ego  and how their number compares with other players.  If you are in a situation where the tam spends to the cap, you have a solid chance of winning, live in an city you like, and have teammates you like… shouldn’t that weigh against the difference between $110-120 million in career earnings will make in your life?

 

They sure seem to be having fun now at work, and sure are making pointed comments about revolving wingers.  They can play a little part in fixing that.

 

I think it'll definitely be more than Nylander.

 

Dunno, what I'd say to this is that in a 32 (likely a bigger number sooner than later) team league the odds of winning a cup aren't all that great even if you take less. It's the hardest championship to win in sports, and it's only going to get harder as more teams enter the league imo. I think this contributes to guys getting going for their bag. Guys who've been around longer, who've secured their bag, likely take less later on to increase the small odds of winning a cup because they've already cashed in.

Edited January 12 by Coconuts

[VegasCanuck]

Just now, Coconuts said:

 

I think it'll definitely be more than Nylander.

 

Dunno, what I'd say to this is that in a 32 (likely a bigger number sooner than later) team league the odds of winning a cup aren't all that great even if you take less. It's the hardest championship to win in sports, and it's only going to get harder as more teams enter the league imo. 

Nylander was becoming a UFA, that gives more leverage. Plus the fact that the Leaf's like to put themselves at a disadvantage by over paying too many players leaving themselves without the cap flexibility to construct a balanced lineup.

 

53% of their cap is taken up next season by 4 guys. They have 11 guys currently under contract for next season and 21.9 million to round out another 10 or 11 guys, depending on how many they run with next season and that's taking the increase to 87.5 into account.

 

Toronto will never win the cup with this construction, they are way too dependent on a very small number of players.

 

 

[Bob Long]

36 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

I view the Miller bit as being different, I don't believe Miller was as willing to bet on his ability to replicate his success as Pettersson is. Miller's also a little older, which matters imo. Miller was also signed under a flat cap in what were arguably still Covid times, he signed on September 2nd, 2022, whereas Pettersson's extension will kick in as the league is beginning to see cap jumps again. 

 

It's been said Miller left money on the table, and maybe he did, but he also gave up his opportunity to chase a larger bag for surefire financial security and that was his choice. 

 

All true. 

[Coconuts]

1 minute ago, VegasCanuck said:

Nylander was becoming a UFA, that gives more leverage. Plus the fact that the Leaf's like to put themselves at a disadvantage by over paying too many players leaving themselves without the cap flexibility to construct a balanced lineup.

 

53% of their cap is taken up next season by 4 guys. They have 11 guys currently under contract for next season and 21.9 million to round out another 10 or 11 guys, depending on how many they run with next season and that's taking the increase to 87.5 into account.

 

Toronto will never win the cup with this construction, they are way too dependent on a very small number of players.

 

 

 

Maybe, but if the Canucks fancy themselves as being contenders sooner than later Pettersson is likely integral to their plan and Pettersson and his agent likely know it. He'd be a very hard player to replace. Pettersson, if viewed as a center, plays a more valuable position. He's on pace for his second consecutive 100 point season in his 24-25 season. 

 

His first two seasons were slightly under point per game, his third season saw his point per game dip but then he exploded last season. Nylander's never hit 90 points, his past two seasons were 87 in 82 and 80 in 81. Before that it was 42 in 51, 59 in 58, and 27 in 54. Pettersson has the edge when it comes to production, regardless as to whether Toronto paid Nylander too much or not.

 

But at the end of the day the Nylander deal set a comparable, which is probably what the Pettersson camp was waiting for, I don't think Nylander's signing will help the Canucks because deals signed around the league impact future signings around the league. Nylander will also be 28 in May, he's doing what he has been at an older age than Pettersson. 

[Dizzle]

6 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

Nylander was becoming a UFA, that gives more leverage. Plus the fact that the Leaf's like to put themselves at a disadvantage by over paying too many players leaving themselves without the cap flexibility to construct a balanced lineup.

 

53% of their cap is taken up next season by 4 guys. They have 11 guys currently under contract for next season and 21.9 million to round out another 10 or 11 guys, depending on how many they run with next season and that's taking the increase to 87.5 into account.

 

Toronto will never win the cup with this construction, they are way too dependent on a very small number of players.

 

 

 

That is the first valid point I think I've heard in regards to Petterson possibly not taking more than Bill Nylander. That being said, I still have trouble seeing him come in under 12 in the current market... especially the way he's playing right now.  

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Dizzle said:

 

That is the first valid point I think I've heard in regards to Petterson possibly not taking more than Bill Nylander. That being said, I still have trouble seeing him come in under 12 in the current market... especially the way he's playing right now.  

Rutherford said he sees Petey as developing into a top five player in the league. Clearly Petey is very close to being there already. Rutherford also said he wants Petey to sign a contract that Petey is happy with. I think it’s going to be 3 years to keep the cap under 10. 

[Strawbone]

39 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Rutherford said he sees Petey as developing into a top five player in the league. Clearly Petey is very close to being there already. Rutherford also said he wants Petey to sign a contract that Petey is happy with. I think it’s going to be 3 years to keep the cap under 10. 

 

I would do 3x10 right now. That gives the team a 4-year window to win the cup with Petey on a value contract and enough money left over to fill out a good roster.

[GrammaInTheTub]

5 minutes ago, Strawbone said:

 

I would do 3x10 right now. That gives the team a 4-year window to win the cup with Petey on a value contract and enough money left over to fill out a good roster.

In a heartbeat!

[Miss Korea]

6 minutes ago, Strawbone said:

 

I would do 3x10 right now. That gives the team a 4-year window to win the cup with Petey on a value contract and enough money left over to fill out a good roster.

 

Just now, GrammaInTheTub said:

In a heartbeat!

Puts us in a Toronto situation when Hughes and Pettersson are up for renegotiations, no?

 

Term over everything.  Take the risk and bet on the player.

[GrammaInTheTub]

1 minute ago, Miss Korea said:

 

Puts us in a Toronto situation when Hughes and Pettersson are up for renegotiations, no?

 

Term over everything.  Take the risk and bet on the player.

I’d rather lock him up for term for sure but if he’s looking short term then $10M is a sweetheart deal 

Edited January 13 by GrammaInTheTub

[Strawbone]

2 minutes ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

I’d rather lock him up for term for sure but if he’s looking short term then $10M is a sweetheart deal 

 

If Alf's empties predict it...I say it's a done deal. I will join in with a few empties of my own tonight!

[VegasCanuck]

1 hour ago, Coconuts said:

 

Maybe, but if the Canucks fancy themselves as being contenders sooner than later Pettersson is likely integral to their plan and Pettersson and his agent likely know it. He'd be a very hard player to replace. Pettersson, if viewed as a center, plays a more valuable position. He's on pace for his second consecutive 100 point season in his 24-25 season. 

 

His first two seasons were slightly under point per game, his third season saw his point per game dip but then he exploded last season. Nylander's never hit 90 points, his past two seasons were 87 in 82 and 80 in 81. Before that it was 42 in 51, 59 in 58, and 27 in 54. Pettersson has the edge when it comes to production, regardless as to whether Toronto paid Nylander too much or not.

 

But at the end of the day the Nylander deal set a comparable, which is probably what the Pettersson camp was waiting for, I don't think Nylander's signing will help the Canucks because deals signed around the league impact future signings around the league. Nylander will also be 28 in May, he's doing what he has been at an older age than Pettersson. 

My personal estimate is, Pettersson comes in at 12 million, but I'm hoping for closer to 11 as home town discount and that he wants to win. If you look at structure of teams that are winning cups, Vegas, Tampa, Colorado, St Louis, Washington and Pittsburgh, they all have structures where they have cap flexibility. They have stars, but for the most part, they are constructed in a way that allows them to build a healthy talent pool around their core.

 

MacKinnon in Colorado just started a new deal at 12.6 million and he is far more accomplished than Pettersson or any of the other guys in Toronto IMO and he also had the leverage of heading into UFA Status. To me, Pettersson comes in below him by 1 - 1.5 million in price.

 

Right now, we have ZERO idea of what is or has actually been presented. Pettersson has stated publicly that he wants to win and that he wants to be here. If the drive to win is stronger than his need for monetary reward, then he locks in around 11.5 for 8 years.

 

At the moment though, everything that is bouncing around is complete conjecture and speculation. Canucks and Pettersson's agent are not negotiating in public.

 

[Dizzle]

15 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

My personal estimate is, Pettersson comes in at 12 million, but I'm hoping for closer to 11 as home town discount and that he wants to win. If you look at structure of teams that are winning cups, Vegas, Tampa, Colorado, St Louis, Washington and Pittsburgh, they all have structures where they have cap flexibility. They have stars, but for the most part, they are constructed in a way that allows them to build a healthy talent pool around their core.

 

MacKinnon in Colorado just started a new deal at 12.6 million and he is far more accomplished than Pettersson or any of the other guys in Toronto IMO and he also had the leverage of heading into UFA Status. To me, Pettersson comes in below him by 1 - 1.5 million in price.

 

Right now, we have ZERO idea of what is or has actually been presented. Pettersson has stated publicly that he wants to win and that he wants to be here. If the drive to win is stronger than his need for monetary reward, then he locks in around 11.5 for 8 years.

 

At the moment though, everything that is bouncing around is complete conjecture and speculation. Canucks and Pettersson's agent are not negotiating in public.

 

While I agree with the vast majority of what you’re saying, McKinnon’s deal was signed a year and a half ago. It should definitely be a piece of the discussion in negotiations, but it will have inflated a chunk given the rising cap next year I would imagine. 

[Guntrix]

1 hour ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

I’d rather lock him up for term for sure but if he’s looking short term then $10M is a sweetheart deal 

Is it, though? Petey’s a heck of a player. I’d say our best after Hughes. But he still gets pushed around far too often in close games (even more so than the smaller guys on the team).
 

$10 million is at the very limit of what I’m comfortable with giving Petey. If he gets that kind of money, he should absolutely be expected to produce consistently. 

[VegasCanuck]

16 minutes ago, Dizzle said:

While I agree with the vast majority of what you’re saying, McKinnon’s deal was signed a year and a half ago. It should definitely be a piece of the discussion in negotiations, but it will have inflated a chunk given the rising cap next year I would imagine. 

Yes, and his deal was signed after he won the Cup for Colorado. Big difference in leverage. Now, if he wins us the cup this year, that will push him into the same realm.

[Alflives]

8 minutes ago, Guntrix said:

Is it, though? Petey’s a heck of a player. I’d say our best after Hughes. But he still gets pushed around far too often in close games (even more so than the smaller guys on the team).
 

$10 million is at the very limit of what I’m comfortable with giving Petey. If he gets that kind of money, he should absolutely be expected to produce consistently. 

Petey is top five centres in the league and (with Quinn Hughes) top five in the league. He’s worth whatever he wants. Like Quinn, Petey is impossible to replace. 

[Dizzle]

55 minutes ago, Guntrix said:

Is it, though? Petey’s a heck of a player. I’d say our best after Hughes. But he still gets pushed around far too often in close games (even more so than the smaller guys on the team).
 

$10 million is at the very limit of what I’m comfortable with giving Petey. If he gets that kind of money, he should absolutely be expected to produce consistently. 

You’re dreaming. 
 

maybe… maybe if it’s shorter term the number will start with 10, but probably closer to 11 than 10 flat. And that would be him taking a discount. 

[Dizzle]

1 hour ago, VegasCanuck said:

Yes, and his deal was signed after he won the Cup for Colorado. Big difference in leverage. Now, if he wins us the cup this year, that will push him into the same realm.

Again, I primarily agree with you. But I still think you have to take the increase in cap into consideration even if you’re putting Petey 1-1.5 below McKinnon. 
 

Mck’s deal had him at 15.3% of the cap (if my math is correct… never been my strong suit ). With what I believe was an unknown cap for the following year. 
 

15.3% of the cap starting in September next year (when Petey actually needs to get serious about signing) would be 13.3. That’d put Petey anywhere from 12.3 down to 11.8 based on your 1-1.5 less than Mck.