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[Report/Rumour] Elias Pettersson Contract Talks


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56 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:


Petey is 6th in league scoring. Only in your mind is he not an $11.5 million player. 

 

56 minutes ago, LillStrimma said:

And now I need to know how he’s been coached.

Do you know that? 

 

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I still view Sebastian Aho as the best comparable for Petey. They have been incredibly similar players during their time in the NHL, but last year it seemed that Pettersson separated himself slightly. However, this year Aho has closed the gap again where he's only slightly below Petey in PPG but I think has been the better defensive player. We all know points are worth money and Pettersson being the slightly better point producer should earn him a touch more than Aho.

 

Aho's cap hit is 9.75M starting next season. If you say Pettersson's 5-10 extra points are worth $0.5M and the better taxes in Carolina are worth $0.5M then Petey should get between $10.5-11M. At this point in time everyone in the NHL with a cap hit over $11M has either been a Hart finalist or won an individual award. Petey hasn't yet and I don't think should be earning that money until he does.

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2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Here's Petey's table.

 

So that means:

EV:  40% of his pts come with Miller, Hughes, or Boeser.

PP:  96% of his pts come with Miller, Hughes, or Boeser.

Totals:  62% of his pts come with Miller, Hughes, or Boeser.

 

Like I said, it's not that I don't believe you.  I just like to see the stats to back it up. 

 

I'll work on Pasta next.  This research may go a LONG ways to showing people what the situation actually looks like for Petey.  If Pasta's numbers come out in favour of Petey, I'll have no issue starting a new thread with this data to support Petey.  Deal?

 

image.thumb.png.626845a3b0d18f71601efbad2b007474.png

wouldn't the numbers be pretty much the same 5v5 if you dropped Boeser and Miller? Just Hughes. (other than 4 games with Lotto line)

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21 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

I still view Sebastian Aho as the best comparable for Petey. They have been incredibly similar players during their time in the NHL, but last year it seemed that Pettersson separated himself slightly. However, this year Aho has closed the gap again where he's only slightly below Petey in PPG but I think has been the better defensive player. We all know points are worth money and Pettersson being the slightly better point producer should earn him a touch more than Aho.

 

Aho's cap hit is 9.75M starting next season. If you say Pettersson's 5-10 extra points are worth $0.5M and the better taxes in Carolina are worth $0.5M then Petey should get between $10.5-11M. At this point in time everyone in the NHL with a cap hit over $11M has either been a Hart finalist or won an individual award. Petey hasn't yet and I don't think should be earning that money until he does.

Thats the plan, why he wants to wait till summer.

Petey knows we can win the Cup this year. He will likely get some accolades when we do!

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2 minutes ago, VintageActualCanuckfan said:

wouldn't the numbers be pretty much the same 5v5 if you dropped Boeser and Miller? Just Hughes. (other than 4 games with Lotto line)

No, there's instances where only Boeser was involved in the play, or just Miller, or both, etc.

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17 hours ago, Diamonds said:

I still view Sebastian Aho as the best comparable for Petey. They have been incredibly similar players during their time in the NHL, but last year it seemed that Pettersson separated himself slightly. However, this year Aho has closed the gap again where he's only slightly below Petey in PPG but I think has been the better defensive player. We all know points are worth money and Pettersson being the slightly better point producer should earn him a touch more than Aho.

 

Aho's cap hit is 9.75M starting next season. If you say Pettersson's 5-10 extra points are worth $0.5M and the better taxes in Carolina are worth $0.5M then Petey should get between $10.5-11M. At this point in time everyone in the NHL with a cap hit over $11M has either been a Hart finalist or won an individual award. Petey hasn't yet and I don't think should be earning that money until he does.

Well thought out post.  The one thing I'll challenge you on is the difference in tax rates.  On $9.75m the difference in tax paid between Carolina and BC is actually over $1.13m. Not $500k. So just factoring in that alone puts Pettersson close to $11m (using Aho as a comparable).  

 

I'm not going to predict what he'll sign for.  There are way to many variables and ultimately it boils down to what Pettersson wants to do and where he wants to be. 

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On 2/12/2024 at 1:36 PM, Diamonds said:

I still view Sebastian Aho as the best comparable for Petey. They have been incredibly similar players during their time in the NHL, but last year it seemed that Pettersson separated himself slightly. However, this year Aho has closed the gap again where he's only slightly below Petey in PPG but I think has been the better defensive player. We all know points are worth money and Pettersson being the slightly better point producer should earn him a touch more than Aho.

 

Aho's cap hit is 9.75M starting next season. If you say Pettersson's 5-10 extra points are worth $0.5M and the better taxes in Carolina are worth $0.5M then Petey should get between $10.5-11M. At this point in time everyone in the NHL with a cap hit over $11M has either been a Hart finalist or won an individual award. Petey hasn't yet and I don't think should be earning that money until he does.

Sebastian aho best year was 81 points in 79 games that’s not even remotely close to back to back 100 points ep likely will end up this year prior to signing his contract.. so not sure how aho is comparable.. aho when signed have 81 points as his career best.. ep when he signed will have likely back to back 100 points.. defensively aho doesn’t hit he doesn’t block shots EP every season have way more takeaways and far less giveaways.. only thing aho have up on ep is faceoff.. also factor in Carolina is a much more defensive team than Vancouver was. Just because he closed the gap AFTER he signed his contract makes him a comparable? He’s no where close when they signed his contract.. you might as well say EP should sign for less than jack Hughes. He was worse than EP prior to signing his contract and since then he’s better than ep offensively 
 

as for players earning 11mil and up have to have awards? What have nylander dahlin panarin Tavares won?

Edited by wai_lai416
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The big thing I keep sticking on is. We have Miller Hughes and Demko on great contracts. Our window doesn't close If Pete won't sign <11m. We might even be able to ice a better team without him. if we use that cap space wisely. That's not even taking into account the absolute haul we would get for him when traded. 

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1 hour ago, TopChed said:

The big thing I keep sticking on is. We have Miller Hughes and Demko on great contracts. Our window doesn't close If Pete won't sign <11m. We might even be able to ice a better team without him. if we use that cap space wisely. That's not even taking into account the absolute haul we would get for him when traded. 

That's the thing, at the end of the day, he is the teams asset. We are not going to get weaker without him we will just acquire different assets, and the way this management group has been able to swing deals? I am sure we are going to come our stronger if we have to trade him.

Minus Petey, this team is still pretty good and there are some pieces here I would like to keep for a couple of more years. If we aren't paying him 11-12 mil, that leaves a lot of room to keep other guys currently on this team. 

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On 2/12/2024 at 1:36 PM, Diamonds said:

I still view Sebastian Aho as the best comparable for Petey. They have been incredibly similar players during their time in the NHL, but last year it seemed that Pettersson separated himself slightly. However, this year Aho has closed the gap again where he's only slightly below Petey in PPG but I think has been the better defensive player. We all know points are worth money and Pettersson being the slightly better point producer should earn him a touch more than Aho.

 

Aho's cap hit is 9.75M starting next season. If you say Pettersson's 5-10 extra points are worth $0.5M and the better taxes in Carolina are worth $0.5M then Petey should get between $10.5-11M. At this point in time everyone in the NHL with a cap hit over $11M has either been a Hart finalist or won an individual award. Petey hasn't yet and I don't think should be earning that money until he does.

Cmon acting like selling eggs on market.Team has number,Petterson has number in his head too.Talking about how he should have this or that player money is so fun.Leafs open flood gate few years back with Mariner and Tawares.Petterson will get his money.Here or somewhere else?.That is the only question here.Not how much he will make.

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3 hours ago, TopChed said:

The big thing I keep sticking on is. We have Miller Hughes and Demko on great contracts. Our window doesn't close If Pete won't sign <11m. We might even be able to ice a better team without him. if we use that cap space wisely. That's not even taking into account the absolute haul we would get for him when traded. 


It is absolutely a valid position to consider how the team would be if we moved Petey because the price wasn’t right to sign him long term.

 

He has put himself in this position by not signing.

 

We wouldn’t be able to fully replace the talent of Petterson 1 to 1 in a trade, that is a given and why it is better to sign him than not.

 

If he wants more than Nylander got, then the value proposition of trading him becomes really pretty even or even weighted towards trading him.

 

With his cap hit you sign Lindholm and still have a solid three centres on the team.  It also leaves you an extra four million in cap to play with.  That buys you Tanev at $4 million plus about a $1 million-ish raise to someone like Blueger if you wanted to extend him (the extra million is because you get two roster spots filled for the same price as just filling one with Petterson).

 

Then the return almost certainly gets you a legit young NHLer who is cost and club controlled.  It also gets you a package of futures that includes fist rounders and blue chip prospects, and maybe another mid tier roster player to have money coming back.

 

You can easily envision building a roster without Petterson that is deeper and just better.  Also set up better for the future as those futures turn into efficient cost controlled ELCs that replace expensive expiring veteran deals, or those futures can be used as currency in other trades to fill other holes.

 

All that kind of says is that we are in a much better negotiating position than last time his contract came up.  His agent literally said at the time, you have to look past the numbers and also consider what the player means to the team.  Last time not signing Petterson would have had disastrous on ice results.  Now it is easier to put a max price we won’t go beyond and if that doesn’t get it done, we move him and go to plan B.

Edited by Provost
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On 2/13/2024 at 3:59 PM, Provost said:


It is absolutely a valid position to consider how the team would be if we moved Petey because the price wasn’t right to sign him long term.

 

He has put himself in this position by not signing.

 

We wouldn’t be able to fully replace the talent of Petterson 1 to 1 in a trade, that is a given and why it is better to sign him than not.

 

If he wants more than Nylander got, then the value proposition of trading him becomes really pretty even or even weighted towards trading him.

 

With his cap hit you sign Lindholm and still have a solid three centres on the team.  It also leaves you an extra four million in cap to play with.  That buys you Tanev at $4 million plus about a $1 million-ish raise to someone like Blueger if you wanted to extend him (the extra million is because you get two roster spots filled for the same price as just filling one with Petterson).

 

Then the return almost certainly gets you a legit young NHLer who is cost and club controlled.  It also gets you a package of futures that includes fist rounders and blue chip prospects, and maybe another mid tier roster player to have money coming back.

 

You can easily envision building a roster without Petterson that is deeper and just better.  Also set up better for the future as those futures turn into efficient cost controlled ELCs that replace expensive expiring veteran deals, or those futures can be used as currency in other trades to fill other holes.

 

All that kind of says is that we are in a much better negotiating position than last time his contract came up.  His agent literally said at the time, you have to look past the numbers and also consider what the player means to the team.  Last time not signing Petterson would have had disastrous on ice results.  Now it is easier to put a max price we won’t go beyond and if that doesn’t get it done, we move him and go to plan B.

Yep.  And I have been saying all along the team has options.  Discussing possibly trading him is not having a hate on him like some here may think.  Sometimes you have to think with your head and not your heart.  Could be another Bo situation shaping up and look what that got us.  

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35 minutes ago, 43isprime said:

I'll ask again - is Pettersson actually a play driver?

 

Yes. He absolutely is. We've seen how many players who couldn't buy one suddenly turn into scorers next to him. Mik needs a miracle worker though.

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4 hours ago, 43isprime said:

 

So...when's the last time you saw him actually drive play with any sort of consistency?

 

last night on the power play where he deked "amazing deke by petterson"

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@End2End am i crazy? or am i lying? cause that happened last night and the announcer noted it... sure he threw it offside but he is a very good player... and a play driver...

 

Other than that EL 3rd goal petterson made a great up ice pass to him...

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On 2/12/2024 at 1:36 PM, Diamonds said:

I still view Sebastian Aho as the best comparable for Petey. They have been incredibly similar players during their time in the NHL, but last year it seemed that Pettersson separated himself slightly. However, this year Aho has closed the gap again where he's only slightly below Petey in PPG but I think has been the better defensive player. We all know points are worth money and Pettersson being the slightly better point producer should earn him a touch more than Aho.

 

Aho's cap hit is 9.75M starting next season. If you say Pettersson's 5-10 extra points are worth $0.5M and the better taxes in Carolina are worth $0.5M then Petey should get between $10.5-11M. At this point in time everyone in the NHL with a cap hit over $11M has either been a Hart finalist or won an individual award. Petey hasn't yet and I don't think should be earning that money until he does.

Aho not comparable 

especially past 2 yrs 

points, minutes, two way play 

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13 hours ago, 43isprime said:

I'll ask again - is Pettersson actually a play driver?

 

On a good day, he's not the same consistent play driver JT is that's for sure.  He needs a linemate that helps take attention away, he could never make a plug like #34 and make him look like a middle 6 when clearly he's a 4th liner.  Sad if Petey wants 11+ were better off trading him for a haul and resign Lindholm.

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4 hours ago, PeteyBOI said:

@End2End am i crazy? or am i lying? cause that happened last night and the announcer noted it... sure he threw it offside but he is a very good player... and a play driver...

 

Other than that EL 3rd goal petterson made a great up ice pass to him...

I’m not sure the move he tried last night, and the outcome, is considered “driving the play consistently”.

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