winter classic [Mafia] Some Spice and Nothing Nice - Game over [Mafia win]

[iambrad]

 re: bluejay, i think he's an awful target to go after. 

 

i had already written this post once over, but i sort of changed my mind in the middle of reading blue jay's iso. i will go out and say i think blue jay has ZERO wolf equity, and i am willing to die on that read. he's not particularly a hard busser, and i think his solving has been predicated on finding wolves and when it is, the thoughts are incisive enough and independent that i do not read him with any wolf team. i think 3p could be likely though. his process is concise and flows naturally for most of the game, but i think a few things ping me about him. 

 

his reads follow a decent stream of logic though, and i've had conversations with this game where it indicates he's looking and listening at posts. i'm pretty comfortable with that alone to put him into town bcause it's fucking impossible for me to talk to a wolf!bluejay. 

 

On 12/5/2023 at 9:11 PM, Blue Jay 22 said:

I don’t think my reads have changed much since this morning….

 

Does Zfetch openly hunt 3P and specials if he’s mafia? Has to know that will bring attention to him. Maybe he is a 3P himself trying to play it off. I have a feeling this slot will be solved within 1.5 rounds. 
 

Also kind of agree with TL earlier in that MR has played/seemed towny this game. But he does have good scum games. Locking in that MR/Z are never wolf/wolf (somehow stating the obvious is TMI for small brains).

 

I don’t agree with most of Brad’s reads. He doesn’t agree with a lot of mine. That’s cool, I like a little spice in my life. Something about the way he went after me in D1 has me not trusting him right now. 
 

Feels like Brad/MR/Z are all kind of dancing with each other. Brad keeps flip flopping on Z, pushing MR. Zfetch keeps focusing on MR, some of it game related, but also lots of fluff? All of this with these 3 feels weird and there’s at least 1 mafia between them.
 

Alison/brad never wolf/wolf.

 

Where is Alison? She has sounded more intelligent than 90% of the people here including myself.

 

Peteyboi was always the cleaner yegger between the two. He brought up a theory about me in R1 pushing him in one game and how it was similar to 6’5. Absolutely zero reason to do that as mafia. @MaxBrown on the other hand is creeping into vig shot/SK shot territory.

 

You can feel the cockiness in NIK’s posts. I’m honestly shocked he’s not on more people’s radar. No mention to his disappearance and vote park on 6’5 that I’ve seen. Goes after low handing fruit this round. I’m actually very interested in Lewt’s flip now because the ISO of him by NIK was actually solid, but that attention to detail is scum quality trait I found in past games with him, not TP. 
 

Remember how much backlash the Alchemy Time initial vote wagon got? Would love to hear the opinions of the defenders of him now.
 

Loogylager and MacDougal seem like they would be friends irl.

 

Straight off the top tp leans:

MR

KZA

TL

Dankmemes
 

Town leans but don’t know their meta:

Alison

dallsbeep 

Albert

Don’t know:

qwags

Qwags

Mac

Dapackback

Tanev

Dumb Turtle

funny girl

luckylager

J23

SD

 

Scum leans:

brad

NIK

Alchemy

Lewt

Zfetch

 

Yeet Pool:

Alchemy, Lewt, J23, Zfetch, SD

 

again, to reiterate, when blue jay is hunting wolf team this game and pairing associations, the posts look good. i don't really have any problem with the reads he makes associatively and find some of them to be pretty deep reads. i think his zfetch and mr reads are sort of meh though and don't really offer much, the max brown read is solid, and that in general his reads list follows a pretty independent process while also not changing from his earlier positions to now. when i was originally posting about this, i went back over how he updated his lewt and zfetch reads though and was conflicted.

 

with the lewt claim, i.e. the sheriff after wagon, bluejay and luckyllooger wanted lewt dead regardless of the claim. luckylooger being that it's a play he's made before and bluejay just not believing it. i don't think a 3p openly hunts a sheriff claim and instead backs off, but like, one of my main proponents for not scumreading this game was that scum bluejay is terribly fucking stubborn and listens to no reason at all. i also think the zfetch read just has no progression. he gives no concrete explanations on zfetch, puts him in his yeet pool, and then later in the game zfetch just kind of ends up as town for him. 

 

i thought the zfetch process was bad but reading over bluejay's posts i actually think he's just starkly town. 

Spoiler

On 12/5/2023 at 10:50 PM, Blue Jay 22 said:

Does anyone have a spicy name to throw in besides Lewt, J23, Snake Doctor?

 

Alchemy Time? NIK? Qwags? Zfetch?

 

Kind of want Zfetch to be town for what it’s worth 

from page 115. 

 

On 12/6/2023 at 6:01 PM, Blue Jay 22 said:

What am I suppose to do with Zfetch though? Sussing MR is fine, but voting for MR who’s more than likely going not going to be top 4 and an off wagon is sus. Figured he would be jived and spiced up for this game but I get the feeling of disillusion in this round.

 

TL brought up this can happen to him as town when he gets frustrated with people making bad reads on him, but last I checked, he wasn’t one of the top yeet candidates this round. 

 

The flip side is that if Zfetch is town, he’s a perfect magnet for the mafia to attract and attack given his potential and play so far.

 

Point is: investigate Zfetch

from page 132

 

On 12/6/2023 at 9:26 PM, Blue Jay 22 said:

Whether or not he’s TP or mafia, the individuals that find Zfetch still highly suspicious are TP leans and the ones that give him immediate TP cred are now highly suspicious themselves. I don’t normally do associations, but if this Lewt claim turns out to be bogus, then he gets 0 credit for the max lynch.

 

from page 155. 

 

his process on the read actually looks really good here. it doesn't look like he's not committing to a read to keep the poe open but because the read keeps bouncing back and forth in his head. if you could call any sort of indecision townie, it would definitely be it here. honestly i'm sort of willing to actually lock blue jay town because he just doesn't have this kind of process as wolf where he's solving. he commits to a read and sticks to it. 

 

On 12/4/2023 at 7:12 PM, Blue Jay 22 said:

Don’t think I benefit the town by posting more. I’ll let the real and fake town leaders do the talking and watch. 
 

Hasta luego

 

also i really liked this post, but i don't have much to say about it. soulread v

[porscha]

19 minutes ago, iambrad said:

re: bluejay, i think he's an awful target to go after. 

did you put this part after you made the entire post lol

[iambrad]

Just now, porscha said:

did you put this part after you made the entire post lol

yea i had already written the post once thinking he was town, then changed my mind when i read over his iso, then changed my mind again and rewrote for 2nd time. 

[porscha]

mhm...

[porscha]

I think bj is not worth being in discussion today over the rest of the poe

full town read though, I dunno about that

[luckylager]

FWIW I wasn't naming bj as a priority over status quo targets like SD, Qwags, Zfetch.

 

Merely voicing my concerns on the bj deep wolf potential and giving some insight on why I feel that way. 

 

I disagree with hogs on a couple points - primary how "stubborn" bj is as wolf. It's the opposite of what hogs is claiming, but wevs for now..

 

[iambrad]

@Funnygurl555 can you explain what that thing was about that player between u & dbp.

  

19 hours ago, Funnygurl555 said:

^ look at the townreads on sharpshooter, 65 AND snake doctor with a vote on a random wagon

 

my first reaction though is isn't it like really ballsy to just lock v all the top wagons. 6'5 and sharpshooter have flipped town, sd unconfirmed, could be tmi that he was going to segway into towncred, but he never really did. i'm not sure i see the point of going into thread as wolf and locking all top 3 wagons v (esp. if at least 2 are v) and then not really committing to anything else. the alchemy time vote is really weird though & the sharpshooter read progression is shit. 

 

On 12/4/2023 at 6:21 PM, DaBackpack said:

okay 

 

6'5'' is town. I can't really articulate precisely why, it's a combination of tone and not scrambling/panicking to get votes off him when he gets them. Conversely, (god fucking damn it I wish this website had ISO so I could find earlier votecounts) some of the votes he's got along the way felt opportunistic, as if pinged as an "easy target." Votes have come and gone on this slot, and it's hard to wager whether wolves would be more inclined to "start a wagon on him and then dip to another wagon as to not get blood on their hands", or, "start a wagon on him, and then split some of the votes as to have SOME presence on the wagon, but still diversify their votespread." There's not anything really actionable about his wagon yet, but I want people to remember to revisit his wagon once his alignment is resolved. 

 

Sharpshooter has had some really, really bad posts so far. I feel confident in that. But even so, he's been pretty consistently in the spotlight for a while now, which feels like a manufactured phenomenon. Someone else is gonna have to sus out the nuances of his play because my brain is telling me to lynch him but my gut is telling me he's awkward town

 

brad has omega pocketed me. this isn't a read, just an observation 

 

I'm gonna hot take here and say that I kinda think Snake Doctor is town here. The wagon on him seems to have occurred from a single post he made along the lines of "I haven't read the thread but I think wolves are the more active posters." Lingering on the contradiction is surface-level, level 1 play. If this post means what I think it means, then I actually agree with him: in a game of 30 players, players posting a lot (esp. with low-value posts) are just making it harder to analyze the thread. Dumping a volumetric ton of shit posts to decrease the signal-to-noise ratio. This kind of dilution is antitown. ----At any rate, I think the Snake Doctor wagon is opportunistic as well. 

 

there are too many fucking characters in this game 

 

unvote Alchemy Time did something to make me feel better about him. i don't remember what it was lmao

 

the 6foot read is good and sort of resembles how i felt towards eod. a lot of people just locked their vote on him because they didn't like him, and i'm 100% wolves just put their votes there to avoid having to actually put any pressure somewhere else. 

 

the sharpshooter read is kind of terrible though. reading over it again, i just disagree with the logic that if someone catches a lot of wolfreads, then them being so heavily scrutinized is 'manufactured.' i think wolves are more likely to jump on townie's suspicions than to create their own, and it just feels sort of like tmi to write that. then the last sentence to set up to later go back onto ss (which he does) is really gross.

 

i like the snake doctor read process, but i'm pretty sure snake doctor flips wolf. i also think the 5 votes that went onto snake doctor can't really be classified as opportunistic - 112 and bluejay had been going on him that day. i reignited the wagon, i asked funnygurl to join and someone else as well. it had a pretty even progression towards eod and didn't feel opportunistic; sharpshooter caught a crazy amount of momentum towards the end that dabackpack never commented on. 

 

19 hours ago, Funnygurl555 said:

sir what? didn't u tr this guy?

 

onto day 2

 

yeah this progression is terrible:

Spoiler

On 12/4/2023 at 7:16 PM, DaBackpack said:

resisted momentum? didn't he have like 6 or 7 votes on him earlier?

 

there was a vote swing on him that felt super opportunistic

On 12/4/2023 at 7:27 PM, DaBackpack said:

i'd do sharpshooter if dunkey kong falls through

On 12/4/2023 at 7:33 PM, DaBackpack said:

unvote

vote Sharpshooter

 

 

 

it's just especially bad because it all happens in 15 minutes, and he doesn't comment on the nature of the sharpshooter wagon that seemed to grow faster than the snake doctor wagon. he says 5 minutes in a few minutes indicates it's alchemy time, but then doesn't apply the same logic to sharpshooter who he called town earlier then hops on. really gross all around. 

 

20 hours ago, Funnygurl555 said:

^ look at how dbp continues to move towards sd despite not having a real reason to vote for him. just voting for a "??" slot seems lazy. 

 

yah but his logic is sound.

 

On 12/6/2023 at 7:28 PM, DaBackpack said:

honestly I think I'd be fine if AT or SD died too. this is weird to say but something feels off about the building momentum on SD. but honestly at this point, his slot needs to be resolved or else he's going to be a distraction down the line. I don't think he's ever gonna be able to clear himself and if he's town, it's pretty likely he'll be kept around as a sacrificial lamb later on.

 

I think the best lynch is Lewi, and the vigi shoots SD or AT in the night. (for the love of christ, don't do another pro gamer 360 no scope again)

 

it's day 4, and people are still stuck on the SD slot that was a counterwagon DAY 1. the only quip is that he leaves himself an out again in this post, but i don't think it matters cus SD is wolf. it's fair to call it a lazy read i guess, but does that indicate wolf and why is that included in the case? it feels unfair to use this against him when there's been a lot of worse arguments in the thread for flimsy targets. 

 

20 hours ago, Funnygurl555 said:

 

alright so the last quotes about zfetch and timelord were them being outed mafia for voting max brown which is just not the take there. why are his reads static?

 

that doesn't seem to the case at all. dbp seems to be leaning timelord v and asking why you would think zfetch is wolf. why are you flipping what he said? it doesn't even seem like you went back & read the reason why he posted that. 

[iambrad]

1 minute ago, luckylager said:

FWIW I wasn't naming bj as a priority over status quo targets like SD, Qwags, Zfetch.

 

Merely voicing my concerns on the bj deep wolf potential and giving some insight on why I feel that way. 

 

I disagree with hogs on a couple points - primary how "stubborn" bj is as wolf. It's the opposite of what hogs is claiming, but wevs for now..

 

how though 

 

i can link games where wolf bluejay just outright refuses to see any sort of logic or reason. where's the case for the opposite? 

[iambrad]

oh yeah baby, it's iambrad time

[Blue Jay 22]

ISO NIK and I’m pretty sure you will hate what you see

[iambrad]

Just now, Blue Jay 22 said:

ISO NIK and I’m pretty sure you will hate what you see

i am. his iso is kind of just whatever

[Blue Jay 22]

1 minute ago, iambrad said:

i am. his iso is kind of just whatever

fair, at least someone made the effort.

[Blue Jay 22]

Maybe SD is the doctor without borders guy

[porscha]

2 minutes ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

ISO NIK and I’m pretty sure you will hate what you see

i hate pretty much every post i've seen him make yeah

can't say I usually love them in other games i've been with him either though

[porscha]

10 minutes ago, iambrad said:

how though 

 

i can link games where wolf bluejay just outright refuses to see any sort of logic or reason. where's the case for the opposite? 

i'm pretty sure bj was a wolf with me once and he didnt have the problem... I think..................................

[Blue Jay 22]

Just now, porscha said:

i'm pretty sure bj was a wolf with me once and he didnt have the problem... I think..................................

Can’t recall ever wolfing together. We have only had like 4 or 5 games together and I hosted a few of those 

[porscha]

Just now, Blue Jay 22 said:

Can’t recall ever wolfing together. We have only had like 4 or 5 games together and I hosted a few of those 

your memory is probably better than mine

I might be thinking of aladeen when I was maf with him

[Blue Jay 22]

If the Doctor has TP wincon, they should hard claim? It’s not a killing role so I don’t think they would be a yeet target if they did 

[iambrad]

1 minute ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

If the Doctor has TP wincon, they should hard claim? It’s not a killing role so I don’t think they would be a yeet target if they did 

pretty sure they don't, mate. 

[iambrad]

  

Spoiler

On 12/5/2023 at 6:24 AM, Naslund said:

@Alison you lock me as scum 

I respond and you just move on without a word?

Love me.

 

 

On 12/5/2023 at 6:25 AM, Naslund said:

Unvote vote Allison

this is the way

 

On 12/5/2023 at 6:31 AM, Naslund said:

 

On 12/5/2023 at 6:50 AM, Naslund said:

I over thought ilunga. I thought no way a scum is gonna be this awkward / ugly 

Talking about last game...the cringe gif post.

Bussing is my scum meta not trying to save ugly ass shit like that 

As for SS I was wrong 

 

 

On 12/5/2023 at 6:53 AM, Naslund said:

Scum NIk would have hopped all over ilguna and rode that shit to the promise land going deep wolf

Deep down my homies know this

 

 

gonna say this pop in from nik is pretty wolfy though. he seems super conscientious about how he looks in the thread and only responds to posts directed towards him calling him wolf. it reads pretty bad esp. with the attempted self meta that i am going to subsequently DENY. 

 

it's especially funny when you consider that i can respond to this string of posts with nik's own words

 

On 12/5/2023 at 10:28 AM, Naslund said:

Why show up why make that string of posts like he did then bounce 

Come on fellas

Go and see the string of events...he showed up posted 6 times then within a page a bunch people moved to SS and we hear nothing again from Lewitelli 

 

 

 

20 hours ago, Naslund said:

If they are both fake claiming and we miss tonight then they should be laughing at us

 

 

i also thought this was a decidedly weird post. 

[Blue Jay 22]

Hmm

[KZA]

BJ is the SK and wants to get rid of the doctor 

[iambrad]

Just now, KZA said:

BJ is the SK and wants to get rid of the doctor 

if you're sk in this gamestate, the only person you probably don't want to get rid of is the doctor.

[Blue Jay 22]

It almost seems too easy to vote Snake but he’s not giving anybody much. Only thing is he is kind of a dotard as TP

[porscha]

I wonder if the doc win con is something like "save x amount of people, dont die, win with whoever wins if you meet that criteria" like a survivor but with an additional prerequisite of saving x amount of people, regardless of alignment