[PGT] Canucks at Flames - F*** CBC Edition

[BC_Hawk]

5 hours ago, stawns said:

 

and that's 6 points back of the wildcard, not the Canucks.  Still, if any team can do it, it's the Oilers.........a motivated McD isn't good for the teams they're chasing

I hope Edm wins a lot of games down the stretch; we do not see them until April! It'll mean they are grabbing points from the AVs, LA, and LVGKs. Currently they are 14 points back with 3 games in hand. As long was we maintain >0.600 hockey, it will be hard for them to catch us.

 

In the end, they are team with glaring issues that have not been solved. Until they get stable goaltending, good team Defense, and contributions from their bottom 6, they are defeatable in the POs, especially if the whistle gets put away.

[CanucksJay]

8 minutes ago, BC_Hawk said:

I hope Edm wins a lot of games down the stretch; we do not see them until April! It'll mean they are grabbing points from the AVs, LA, and LVGKs. Currently they are 14 points back with 3 games in hand. As long was we maintain >0.600 hockey, it will be hard for them to catch us.

 

In the end, they are team with glaring issues that have not been solved. Until they get stable goaltending, good team Defense, and contributions from their bottom 6, they are defeatable in the POs, especially if the whistle gets put away.

Yep. Not sure why some ppl are giving the oilers so much credit. They are a 2 man team with subpar goaltending, a super thin defence and a weak bottom six. 

Only player I actually like on that team is ekholm. 

[stawns]

15 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

Yep. Not sure why some ppl are giving the oilers so much credit. They are a 2 man team with subpar goaltending, a super thin defence and a weak bottom six. 

Only player I actually like on that team is ekholm. 

because they have the best player in the world and another of the top players and if those two get on a roll, they'll put up a lot of wins.  

[Gawdzukes]

15 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

Yep. Not sure why some ppl are giving the oilers so much credit. They are a 2 man team with subpar goaltending, a super thin defence and a weak bottom six. 

Only player I actually like on that team is ekholm. 

 

Probably because they lost to Vegas 4-2 in the second round last year and made the Conference final the year before. They've demonstrated they can at least get that far.

[CanucksJay]

4 hours ago, stawns said:

because they have the best player in the world and another of the top players and if those two get on a roll, they'll put up a lot of wins.  

 

4 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

 

Probably because they lost to Vegas 4-2 in the second round last year and made the Conference final the year before. They've demonstrated they can at least get that far.

 

Last year, the cutoff for playoffs was pretty easy with last seed only needing 95 pts.  7th seed was 100.

 

That means Edmonton would have to go 38-22 in the final 60 games to leapfrog 6 teams and make the playoffs. 

 

The year before that was 97 pts (39-21)

 

This year might be easier because 8th seed is currently on pace for 89 pts. That's a 35-25 record (1.13 pts / game) 

 

When looking at the oilers last year, they played at a 1.32 pts per game pace which means that you are absolutely correct in that it is within possibility that they have the ability to achieve this(as they did it last year) 

 

But let's look at the oilers current run of last 10 games where they went 7-3. 

Win against Vegas who dressed their backup Logan. 

Win against Anaheim who dressed their backup Dotsal 

Win against Washington who dressed their backup Lindgren 

Win against Seattle who stressed their backup Daccord

 

The only legit starters they faced in their other 3 wins were Grubauer, Sorokin and Hellebuyck. 

 

They lost to the other good teams (Carolina, Tampa and Florida) 

 

If anything, one can argue that other teams aren't currently putting their best foot forward when facing the oilers and not giving them much respect. 

 

It's similar to what some say was Vancouver's reason for such a hot start. We caught teams off guard. 

 

If you can discount the canucks hot start by saying they had a soft schedule and the canucks are just a wild card team, what is so different about the oilers finally winning games when other teams aren't giving them respect by dressing their backups? 

They're still losing to actual good teams like Tampa, Florida and Carolina. 

 

If we use the same argument you use against the canucks and their record against playoff teams, Edmonton is 2-3 against playoff teams in this last stretch where they have "seemingly" picked up their play. But 1 of the wins against a backup. So yes they beat up on non playoff teams and faced alot of backups during this stretch while still having a losing record against playoff teams. 

 

As a result, I'm not convinced they'll make the playoffs. When teams wake up and show up for the Edmonton games, we may see a drop in their performance while they don't have much margin for error for the rest of the season. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by CanucksJay

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, CanucksJay said:

 

 

Last year, the cutoff for playoffs was pretty easy with last seed only needing 95 pts.  7th seed was 100.

 

That means Edmonton would have to go 38-22 in the final 60 games to leapfrog 6 teams and make the playoffs. 

 

The year before that was 97 pts (39-21)

 

This year might be easier because 8th seed is currently on pace for 89 pts. That's a 35-25 record (1.13 pts / game) 

 

When looking at the oilers last year, they played at a 1.32 pts per game pace which means that you are absolutely correct in that it is within possibility that they have the ability to achieve this(as they did it last year) 

 

But let's look at the oilers current run of last 10 games where they went 7-3. 

Win against Vegas who dressed their backup Logan. 

Win against Anaheim who dressed their backup Dotsal 

Win against Washington who dressed their backup Lindgren 

Win against Seattle who stressed their backup Daccord

 

The only legit starters they faced in their other 3 wins were Grubauer, Sorokin and Hellebuyck. 

 

They lost to the other good teams (Carolina, Tampa and Florida) 

 

If anything, one can argue that other teams aren't currently putting their best foot forward when facing the oilers and not giving them much respect. 

 

It's similar to what some say was Vancouver's reason for such a hot start. We caught teams off guard. 

 

If you can discount the canucks hot start by saying they had a soft schedule and the canucks are just a wild card team, what is so different about the oilers finally winning games when other teams aren't giving them respect by dressing their backups? 

They're still losing to actual good teams like Tampa, Florida and Carolina. 

 

If we use the same argument you use against the canucks and their record against playoff teams, Edmonton is 2-3 against playoff teams in this last stretch where they have "seemingly" picked up their play. But 1 of the wins against a backup. So yes they beat up on non playoff teams and faced alot of backups during this stretch while still having a losing record against playoff teams. 

 

As a result, I'm not convinced they'll make the playoffs. When teams wake up and show up for the Edmonton games, we may see a drop in their performance while they don't have much margin for error for the rest of the season. 

 

Good numbers and good research. What you say all sounds pretty logical. That's the thing. You can use stats and find stats that will support many narratives. Nothing wrong with your evaluation though at all. It sounds well thought out. I am just going off of what my hockey logic reader says after watching the last 40 or so years of hockey.

 

As far as prognosticating point totals I don't really care so much what was done last year, what the break point was, or the record needed to get there is. I see that more of a stats orientated talking head viewpoint. If I'am coaching the Oilers I simply tell my team we need to catch up 6 points on our competitors. Basically just win hockey games. It's much simpler that way.

 

I also don't really care about over analyzing the last 10 games, or who their starters were if I'am the Oilers coach. A win is a win and you don't get more points for beating the team's starters or less for the backups. So you can't really fault them for beating back up goalies. They don't get to choose who starts against them. In other words it doesn't invalidate the wins.

 

I totally get what you're saying so don't take this the wrong way as me saying you're wrong, as the numbers show you are probably right. However, if I'am Arizona, St. Louis, Nashville, Calgary, Seattle, Minnesota, or even the Canucks if the wheels fall off, I'am probably the most worried about Edmonton, followed by Calgary, then the Blues, and Arizona.

 

Let's face it Arizona is rising up out of the ashes (who knows if that continues), Nashville was pegged for failure from day one by many people here, Edmonton has 4 games on Seattle, 2 on Calgary, 2 on Nashville, and two on Arizona. They only have 1 on St. Louis, who I think is the best of the bunch. When you consider all of that and the incentive Edmonton has, the expectations, plus the star power it's a lot closer than it looks on paper in my opinion. Also remember the heater they went on to finish last year. If that team shows up, which is very possible, look out.

 

Very good post though. Very well put. Like we've seen with our Canucks the last two years. It's incredibly hard to make up ground. They definitely have a massive hill to climb.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Gawdzukes

[chaoticmonkey]

On 12/3/2023 at 4:38 PM, RinkonRenfrew said:

Love(d) Motter, but I don’t see a spot for him here.  He’s just a little too small with  Garland and Hogz here who bring that intensity but with more skill to the bottom 6. Maybe if one of them got a promotion to the top 6 it would work, but the top 6 needs more size too.

 

He’s a pk ace, so that could help, but Miller Petey, and a good faceoff guy with Joshua is solid.  Not sure what the pk issues are atm but i don’t think it’s a winger.

We need to be faster on puck retrievals on the pk so that they can clear the zone, and they need more forwards willing to block shots which Motte is capable of doing. Miller and Joshua arent PK savants exactly they're doing it because we don't have anybody else imo.

 

As far as size, while I do agree we're too small up front, they're actively working on trading garland so they need to bump him to the top 6 to showcase him a bit.

 

Its probably a Moot(te) point anyways because I don't think Tampa would trade him.

[CanucksJay]

9 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

 

I also don't really care about over analyzing the last 10 games, or who their starters were if I'am the Oilers coach. A win is a win and you don't get more points for beating the team's starters or less for the backups. So you can't really fault them for beating back up goalies. They don't get to choose who starts against them. In other words it doesn't invalidate the wins.

 

 

Agreed. That's why I think the canucks should still get the respect for the record they currently hold. Some users like @stawnshave minimized the canucks achievements this year and chalked up their record to facing soft opponents. Just like you stated though, the wins are still wins. You can't penalize the canucks for winning games that they should. 

I just thought that it was a bit of a double standard when our own fans give respect to the oilers despite their easy schedule while they knock down our own team for the same reason.

[stawns]

18 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

 

Agreed. That's why I think the canucks should still get the respect for the record they currently hold. Some users like @stawnshave minimized the canucks achievements this year and chalked up their record to facing soft opponents. Just like you stated though, the wins are still wins. You can't penalize the canucks for winning games that they should. 

I just thought that it was a bit of a double standard when our own fans give respect to the oilers despite their easy schedule while they knock down our own team for the same reason.

 

Never once did I minimize anything or chalk up what ns to wrak teams.  In fact, I said it's their poor play against weaker teams that could be their downfall.  

 

If you're going to tag me, don't misrepresent how I feel or what I say.

[Bob Long]

15 hours ago, stawns said:

because they have the best player in the world and another of the top players and if those two get on a roll, they'll put up a lot of wins.  

 

Best offensive player, when healthy.

 

The problem with labelling Mcbaby this way is it masks his, and his teammates, defensive liabilities. 

 

Sure EDM can get on a roll, but they are very beatable by a disciplined team.

[stawns]

14 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

Best offensive player, when healthy.

 

The problem with labelling Mcbaby this way is it masks his, and his teammates, defensive liabilities. 

 

Sure EDM can get on a roll, but they are very beatable by a disciplined team.

 

I think you're doing a real disservice to what McD and Drai can do when they're focused and get on a roll.  That team could easily get on a .650 pace for the rest of the season, regardless of whatever deficiencies they have.  

Edited December 5, 2023 by stawns

[Bob Long]

4 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

I think you're doing a real disservice to what McD and Drai can do when they're focused and get on a roll.  That team could easily get on a .650 pace for the rest of the season, regardless of whatever deficiencies they have.  

 

Why? We've seen teams have excellent game planning against those two. Maybe you aren't giving others enough credit?

 

 

[stawns]

1 minute ago, Bob Long said:

 

Why? We've seen teams have excellent game planning against those two. Maybe you aren't giving others enough credit?

 

 

History shows us time again what teams with the top players in the world can do.  If McD and Drai get on a roll, it'll be very tough keeping them out of a divisional playoff spot 

[Bob Long]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

History shows us time again what teams with the top players in the world can do.  If McD and Drai get on a roll, it'll be very tough keeping them out of a divisional playoff spot 

 

If. 

 

I agree with Bieksa, Crosby is still the guy you want in a key moment.

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

11 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

Arizona is rising up out of the ashes (who knows if that continues)

 

Well done!  

[stawns]

18 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

If. 

 

I agree with Bieksa, Crosby is still the guy you want in a key moment.

 

But, my reference to the oilers was purely about the reg season and their ability to put themselves back in the playoff picture, specifically the divisional playoff picture.

[Bob Long]

37 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

But, my reference to the oilers was purely about the reg season and their ability to put themselves back in the playoff picture, specifically the divisional playoff picture.

 

ah ok. I still think McD can be game planned if teams have the defensive talent.

[CanucksJay]

2 hours ago, stawns said:

 

Never once did I minimize anything or chalk up what ns to wrak teams.  In fact, I said it's their poor play against weaker teams that could be their downfall.  

 

If you're going to tag me, don't misrepresent how I feel or what I say.

 

The Canucks are 16-8-1. As of this moment, we've only lost 3 out of 25 games to a weak/non playoff team.

One of them being on the 2nd half of a back to back against Cgy after an eastern road trip with a depleted lineup (missing Kuz, Suter, Soucy). Even vegas odds had canucks losing that game. 

That's pretty good isn't it?

 

Only truly disappointing loss to a non playoff team was against San Jose. We dressed our backup and didn't show up until it was too late. Ended up out shooting them 33 to 22 and advanced stats showed we should have won by a wide margin. But the game is played on the ice and sometimes crap happens and we lost. That's why sports exists otherwise we'd just run simulations and give out the Stanley cup that way. 

 

If you are looking at this season and are saying their poor play against weaker teams could be their downfall, you must not be paying attention because we've actually done quite well. 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by CanucksJay

[Gawdzukes]

5 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

 

Agreed. That's why I think the canucks should still get the respect for the record they currently hold. Some users like @stawnshave minimized the canucks achievements this year and chalked up their record to facing soft opponents. Just like you stated though, the wins are still wins. You can't penalize the canucks for winning games that they should. 

I just thought that it was a bit of a double standard when our own fans give respect to the oilers despite their easy schedule while they knock down our own team for the same reason.

 

Oh okay I missed that part. I think @stawns is more concerned about the last stretch of games (which is valid but not the end of the world) where we lost some points to lower seeded teams. Myself, I think the Canucks have put in the work, showed up on time to play, have a great coaching staff, team atmosphere, and are in a great spot considering everything. I always believe wins are wins no matter what. There is so much parity your fate is only determined by what you make of it in this league, and lucky wins or losses all balance out in the end. As I heard on Monday Night Football the other night, "You are who your record says you are". I'm pretty good with that statement. The would of, could have, should haves, are just pointless imo.

 

I agree the double standard is unfair if applied that way. I find the whole easy/weak schedule thing to be a somewhat lame argument. By the time the year us over it's all evened out. I might use it in passing to help explain a run of poor or good play but what's far more important then that is how well you play. I remember the most competitive leagues I've been part of some teams were good at beating certain teams and not others. Often a lower team would have a top teams number every time they play them.

 

It's really a logical fallacy to judge the strength of the schedule as you go. First you have one team beat another team so they are called weak, then that strong team beats another so called weak team, but that weak team goes on to beat another team that is a strong team. Now are all those teams weak or strong or do you go backwards and re-adjust? With 32 teams in a league with this amount of parity it's a fools game to try to label these teams based on their interactions with each other. I find quality of competition and WAR charts and such to be pretty silly in that if you change one variable it falls down like a stack of cards.

 

 My power ranking for what it's worth 

Vegas

Colorado

LA

Dallas

Vancouver

Edmonton

Calgary

Winnipeg

St. Louis

Minny

Seattle

 

** And yeah Seattle dropped that far because we robbed Soucy from them right in front of there eyes! 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Gawdzukes