The Long Term Value of Elias Pettersson

[Bob Long]

6 minutes ago, HKSR said:

We would need a centre back if Petey was traded.  We have no depth in that position within the franchise.  Hanging our hopes on Aatu Raty probably isn't a good idea.

 

no, but with Brady on a good contract we should have the cap to find another C. 

 

But this would be something I'd only want to see if Petey was being unreasonable, which I don't think he will be. 

 

[HKSR]

12 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

no, but with Brady on a good contract we should have the cap to find another C. 

 

But this would be something I'd only want to see if Petey was being unreasonable, which I don't think he will be. 

 

I hope he won't be, but he doesn't come across the same as the Sedins.  Feels a bit more selfish, but I hope I'm wrong.

[BPA]

If EP does demand too much than what the Canucks are wanting to pay, I would want them to deal with CBJ.  Go for some cheap ELC premium talent.

Something like…

 

EP

for

Fantilli + Jiricek 

 

Add whatever (picks/prospects/players) to balance cap and even up the trade.

[Strawbone]

No way I'd sign Petey to a big long term deal right now. For stretches, he looks like a top-5 player in the league, but there's too many stretches where he looks like a good player, but not dominant. And at times he looks almost disinterested. He has to find that consistency to be making $10M+ as far as I'm concerned, especially for 8 years.

[Elias Pettersson]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

11% of 83.5M is 9.2M.  If Petey signs for that, I think we are all extremely happy.  $11M is over 13% of the cap.  I just don't see how he's worth that right now anyways.  

The cap is literally going up to almost $88 million next year. So why are you using an outdated number?  Also, the cap is expected to rise to $92 million in 2025. It literally even says this on CapFriendly. 
 

So at the very least Petey is in the $10 million range. He probably signs for $10 million on a short term deal. 10x4. 
 

However, on an 8 year deal he definitely isn’t signing anything less than $11 million. Cap will be at $100 million by the 3rd or 4th year of that contract. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[HKSR]

41 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The cap is literally going up to almost $88 million next year. So why are you using an outdated number?  Also, the cap is expected to rise to $92 million in 2025. It literally even says this on CapFriendly. 
 

So at the very least Petey is in the $10 million range. He probably signs for $10 million on a short term deal. 10x4. 
 

However, on an 8 year deal he definitely isn’t signing anything less than $11 million. Cap will be at $100 million by the 3rd or 4th year of that contract. 

I'd be happy with a $10x4.  Or even 10x3.  I'd like to see more from him before committing to 8 years.

[canucks curse]

To NJD

EP 40

Silovs

Hirose

2025 1st

Karlsson

 

To VAN

Jack and Luke Hughes

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The cap is literally going up to almost $88 million next year. So why are you using an outdated number?  Also, the cap is expected to rise to $92 million in 2025. It literally even says this on CapFriendly. 
 

So at the very least Petey is in the $10 million range. He probably signs for $10 million on a short term deal. 10x4. 
 

However, on an 8 year deal he definitely isn’t signing anything less than $11 million. Cap will be at $100 million by the 3rd or 4th year of that contract. 

 

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

I'd be happy with a $10x4.  Or even 10x3.  I'd like to see more from him before committing to 8 years.

What's better 

 

8 years @ 13 mill that ends the contract when he is 33 or

 

4 years @ 10-11 and then 8 years @ 15-16 mill, paying him that when he is 34,35,36 years old

 

I'd rather pay him the 13 mill now and far less when he is 34, 35, 36

[HKSR]

Just now, CanuckFanForever said:

 

What's better 

 

8 years @ 13 mill that ends the contract when he is 33 or

 

4 years @ 10-11 and then 8 years @ 15-16 mill, paying him that when he is 34,35,36 years old

 

I'd rather pay him the 13 mill now and far less when he is 34, 35, 36

15 to 16m?  That's a big assumption that he performs at the level he needs to be paid that kinda money.

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

I think Petey wants the 3-5 year contract because he is being told by his agent as anyone follow this league would know, He will get far more 15-16 mill after that 3-5 year contract

 

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

15 to 16m?  That's a big assumption that he performs at the level he needs to be paid that kinda money.

Is there any reason not to think he can't be a consistent 100 pt player or get 40 goals a season at the ages of 26,27, 28, 29

 

The 15-16 million will be the new 12-13 mill in 3-4 years. The cap is going up this year to 88 million now and will be well into the 90 million range by the time his contract ends

Edited December 18, 2023 by CanuckFanForever

[HKSR]

12 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

Is there any reason not to think he can't be a consistent 100 pt player or get 40 goals a season at the ages of 26,27, 28, 29

 

The 15-16 million will be the new 12-13 mill in 3-4 years. The cap is going up this year to 88 million now and will be well into the 90 million range by the time his contract ends

Not really.  Assuming the cap goes up by a massive $4m every single season, in 4 years, it will have gone up $16m to $99.5M.

 

$15 to $16m would be about 15% to 16% of the cap.  The equivalent today of $12.5 to $13.4m AAV... Mcdavid and Mackinnon territory.  Petey is never gonna be at that level IMO.

 

I also don't think the cap will go up $4M every year for the next 4 years.

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

Next season cap hits to maintain most of the team Cap @ 87.5 million that's a 4 million increase

 

EP40 13.0 mill over the next 8 seasons if he accepts it or less on shorter contract

Hronek 7.75 mill on a 6-8 year contract

Lafferty and Joshua 5 million to split 2.5 mill each or any 2 numbers not totaling more than 5 mill

Blueger 2.2 million

Hirose, Mcward, Silovs .800 each

 

Defense looks like

 

Hughes Hronek

Saucy Mcward

Hirose and (sign D no more then 3.00 mill (Tanev???) might have more for this position if you get Lafferty and Joshua for less)

Wolanin Juulsen

 

Goalies 

Demko

Silovs

 

Forwards 

everyone we have now and Amen as the 13th forward.

 

According to Capfriendly Total $87,484,167 

 

Yes biggest loses Cole and Zadorov, But money to sign 1 right handed D-man and promote young guys

 

Should add in this scenario Canucks lose Desmith as well which could be the biggest lose and the only part of this scenario I don't like but at some point need to bring a young guy in

Edited December 18, 2023 by CanuckFanForever

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

12 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Not really.  Assuming the cap goes up by a massive $4m every single season, in 4 years, it will have gone up $16m to $99.5M.

 

$15 to $16m would be about 15% to 16% of the cap.  The equivalent today of $12.5 to $13.4m AAV... Mcdavid and Mackinnon territory.  Petey is never gonna be at that level IMO.

 

I also don't think the cap will go up $4M every year for the next 4 years.

I don't think it is going up 4 mill each year but also not @ 1 million neither 

 

So if we say 2 mill on average that is 88 for next year and another 8 million after 4 more years or 96 million. 96mill * 15%=14.4 million Mackinnon is @ 15.1 today. 

 

You also have to take into account 1 other factor minimum contracts are not going up as fast as the Cap is the next 3-4 seasons nor are the EL contracts. Leaving more money on the table. If you have 3-4 guys still only making .800-900k on the team but have a larger sum to go around that money will go to the top end the agents will make sure of that.

 

IMO is correct of you to say. With some playoff success and EP40 ceiling still unknowing I think he could be in that 14-15 mill range. I just know this it will be higher down the road then it is now unless bad things happen. Maybe we get him 8 years 12.5 million now but I can't see it a factor with the Mackinnon contract that doesn't get mention is it kicked in when he was 28, EP is going to be 26 next season. That means Col is buying mid 30 years. well EP40 will be 33 after a 8 year deal

[HKSR]

15 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I don't think it is going up 4 mill each year but also not @ 1 million neither 

 

So if we say 2 mill on average that is 88 for next year and another 8 million after 4 more years or 96 million. 96mill * 15%=14.4 million Mackinnon is @ 15.1 today. 

 

You also have to take into account 1 other factor minimum contracts are not going up as fast as the Cap is the next 3-4 seasons nor are the EL contracts. Leaving more money on the table. If you have 3-4 guys still only making .800-900k on the team but have a larger sum to go around that money will go to the top end the agents will make sure of that.

 

IMO is correct of you to say. With some playoff success and EP40 ceiling still unknowing I think he could be in that 14-15 mill range. I just know this it will be higher down the road then it is now unless bad things happen. Maybe we get him 8 years 12.5 million now but I can't see it a factor with the Mackinnon contract that doesn't get mention is it kicked in when he was 28, EP is going to be 26 next season. That means Col is buying mid 30 years. well EP40 will be 33 after a 8 year deal

I think the bottomline is if you feel Petey will be worth that kinda money down the road, then mind as well lock him in now.  If you don't, then just get him on another bridge deal.  I just don't ever see him among the mcdavids and Mackinnons of this league.  He's a tier down from those guys, so if we buy another 3 or 4 years at say $10m now, I think we can still lock him in at 12.5m a few years from now, which would be around 13% of the cap.

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

15 to 16m?  That's a big assumption that he performs at the level he needs to be paid that kinda money.

I think the Auston Mathews contract tells people a lot about what agents think is going to happen in the future. He signed 4 years @ 13.25 million After that 4 years he can then sign another large contract for 8 years because he will be 30 years old. That forces the Leaf's to sign him into his late 30s. 

 

2) Mathews agent clearly believes caps are going way up and he can get more or at least the same for longer. Essentially making his 4 year contract a 12 year one. EP40 is int he same situation except he will be 1 year younger. 

 

Are they worth the same IDK but are they in the same situations Absolutely  

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

7 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think the bottomline is if you feel Petey will be worth that kinda money down the road, then mind as well lock him in now.  If you don't, then just get him on another bridge deal.  I just don't ever see him among the mcdavids and Mackinnons of this league.  He's a tier down from those guys, so if we buy another 3 or 4 years at say $10m now, I think we can still lock him in at 12.5m a few years from now, which would be around 13% of the cap.

First Mcdavid's contract doesn't count anymore. It was signed years ago and he was much younger then EP40 is now and it bought RFA years as well. 

In todays dollars or his next contract will be the largest any player has ever signed probably 16-17 mill per season for 8 years. He is the top tier.

 

EP40 is in line with Mathews and MacKinnion maybe slightly below Mackinnon's but as I mentioned above he is also 2 years older when he signed that contract bringing him into his mid 30's

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

13 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think the bottomline is if you feel Petey will be worth that kinda money down the road, then mind as well lock him in now.  If you don't, then just get him on another bridge deal.  I just don't ever see him among the mcdavids and Mackinnons of this league.  He's a tier down from those guys, so if we buy another 3 or 4 years at say $10m now, I think we can still lock him in at 12.5m a few years from now, which would be around 13% of the cap.

Another note on the Mackinnon's contract, his age is factored into it as the first years he is making 16.5 mill the first 3 years and lowers after that. 

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

18 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think the bottomline is if you feel Petey will be worth that kinda money down the road, then mind as well lock him in now.  If you don't, then just get him on another bridge deal.  I just don't ever see him among the mcdavids and Mackinnons of this league.  He's a tier down from those guys, so if we buy another 3 or 4 years at say $10m now, I think we can still lock him in at 12.5m a few years from now, which would be around 13% of the cap.

EP40 qualifying offer is 10.25 million and that buys his last RFA year.

 

SO yeah far more then 10.00 million to buy 2-3 years of UFA as well

Edited December 18, 2023 by CanuckFanForever

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

19 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think the bottomline is if you feel Petey will be worth that kinda money down the road, then mind as well lock him in now.  If you don't, then just get him on another bridge deal.  I just don't ever see him among the mcdavids and Mackinnons of this league.  He's a tier down from those guys, so if we buy another 3 or 4 years at say $10m now, I think we can still lock him in at 12.5m a few years from now, which would be around 13% of the cap.

So most reasonably way of thinking about it 

 

10.25 mill the first year (his qualifying offer)

 

12.5 million for 3 years. 

 

so 12.5+12.5+12.5+10.25=11.9375 or round it up to 12 mill per

[AatuD2]

16 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

He's regressed a bit since a hot start but he'll probably end up being a 100pt player. I know we can't really directly compare him to Miller at 8M but we kind of can?

 

If he ends up with 90pts I think 9M is fair, 100pts and 10M is fair, but to be getting 11-12M he really needs to be a top-5 center in the league and right now he's just outside tat bubble.

 

 

Very fair.  

 

The one player that I have repeatedly come back to is Pastrnak.  He got 11.25 million and has scored 60 goals in the league.  

 

I love Petey but Pastrnak is a better player then Petey.  So he really deserves 10.5 at most per year. 

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

7 hours ago, Westcoasting said:

I see him around 10.5 - 11 million 8 years.

His qualifying offer is 10.25 million and that buys his last year of RFA why does EP40 take a hair more for his UFA years

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

2 minutes ago, AatuD2 said:

 

 

Very fair.  

 

The one player that I have repeatedly come back to is Pastrnak.  He got 11.25 million and has scored 60 goals in the league.  

 

I love Petey but Pastrnak is a better player then Petey.  So he really deserves 10.5 at most per year. 

Pastrnak is Right winger EP40 is a center

 

EP40 qualifying # is 10.25 million to buy his last RFA year

[LillStrimma]

3 hours ago, canucks curse said:

To NJD

EP 40

Silovs

Hirose

2025 1st

Karlsson

 

To VAN

Jack and Luke Hughes

Think Lindros if you want to do that trade.

So it will look more like Petey, Hronek and Demko plus at least two first.

That is the starting offer, NJD probably wants more..

 

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

2 minutes ago, LillStrimma said:

Think Lindros if you want to do that trade.

So it will look more like Petey, Hronek and Demko plus at least two first.

That is the starting offer, NJD probably wants more..

 

That's a terrible trade for the Canucks

We would need a new goalie and Hronek is at least 2 years ahead of Luke Hughes and that's if Luke gets to his potential. Take out Demko and I would do it.