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The Long Term Value of Elias Pettersson


Jeremy Hronek

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6 hours ago, Canuckleheads Fan said:

Because unlike many of the centers on that list (Kopitar, Tavares, Draisatl 28 who scores but doesn't drive play, and Barkov 28) Petey is on the upswing, and won't reach his peak for another two or three years. By time he hits his peak, he will be top 5 along with Hughes, Eichel, McKinnon, and McDavid, and at $12M will be a steal compared to what those other players will be making, around $13.5 to $14M. They have a limited window to earn as much as they can, and they use salary as a measuring stick. There is no doubt that Petey, when healthy, as he was at the start of the season was playing like a top five center. Most will admit that he went through a stretch with an undisclosed injury.  He looks to be coming out the other side, and I except he will be tearing it up again in the next few weeks. If they don't pay him what he's worth he's likely to find that money somewhere, and the Canucks will be in the same place Calgary finds themselves. Petey is a generational talent, good luck finding another like him even if we got picks in exchange a trade.

Generational is Crosby, Ovi, McKinnon, McDavid.     Asterisk for McKinnon.     What makes EP better, then say Stamkos?   As in the same age.   Stamkos doesn't break his leg.   Had Brock like injury bad luck.   EPs not a superstar.   Maybe he will be one day, but he isn't yet.   12 is still paying on potential for sure based on cap percentage.  Cap going up 5% isn't 20%!

Edited by IBatch
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9 hours ago, HKSR said:

Bure.

How many cups did be win? Part of makes a generational player to me is cup wins. If you can't drive your team to a cup, I don't think you are that generational. So as good as McDavid is, he is not really generational until he wins his cup. Petey will be generational, once he wins a cup. He will be a 100 point player this season. Nucks will win the cup in the three to five years.

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On 12/17/2023 at 3:47 AM, Elias Pettersson said:

Salary numbers are adjusted based on cap percentage.  That is the key.  Doesn't matter what Petey's salary is, the only thing that matters is what percentage of the cap his salary takes up.

 

Vegas won the cup last year after they acquired Jack Eichel who was dominant in the playoffs.  His salary is $10 million and his salary took up 12% of the $82.5 million cap.

 

So, Petey's salary can take up to 12% of the cap.  If the cap is rising to $92 million in 2 years, then that means Petey, on a long term deal, can get paid up to $11 million.  If he signs an 8 year deal and the cap hits $100 million by 2026, then his salary can be up to $12 million.  This is the example you are using when the cap went up and then Pittsburgh and Washington won their cups.  Petey will sign for anywhere from $11 to $12 million, so it should be fine.  He might be over the 12% on the first 2 years of his deal, but will be at the level and even lower for the rest of his deal.

 

Also, Petey is a better player than Aho, who has never even hit 84 points.  So there is no reason for him to take an Aho deal.  Petey is a 100 point player.  Aho is not...

The original poster was making a fair point but yeah , Jack Eichel is the counter point. He's making 10 and they won the cup. 

 

He brings up Jack Hughs. But we already have a Jack Hughs type deals on the books. Quinn and Demko. Granted they are shorter than Jacks deal.

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1 minute ago, Blue said:

The original poster was making a fair point but yeah , Jack Eichel is the counter point. He's making 10 and they won the cup. 

 

He brings up Jack Hughs. But we already have a Jack Hughs type deals on the books. Quinn and Demko. Granted they are shorter than Jacks deal.

 

Yes.  And we also have Miller locked up at $8 million for 6 more years after this one.  Not every contract can be efficient.  Buffalo locked up their centres for under $8 million for several more years and took the risk on Power at $8 million as well.  However, they had to pay $11 million to keep Dahlin.  It's just the way it is.  Not every contract can be efficient for the cap and not every contract is signed at the exact same time.  

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12 hours ago, IBatch said:

Generational is Crosby, Ovi, McKinnon, McDavid.     Asterisk for McKinnon.     What makes EP better, then say Stamkos?   As in the same age.   Stamkos doesn't break his leg.   Had Brock like injury bad luck.   EPs not a superstar.   Maybe he will be one day, but he isn't yet.   12 is still paying on potential for sure based on cap percentage.  Cap going up 5% isn't 20%!

 

I think Pettersson has earned the right to be labelled a 'superstar', but you're 100% correct about identifying who is 'generational' in my opinion (although I'd remove McKinnon from that list).   Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid are the only players over the last 20 years that deserve to be labelled as 'generational' in my opinion.  

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3 minutes ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

 

I think Pettersson has earned the right to be labelled a 'superstar', but you're 100% correct about identifying who is 'generational' in my opinion (although I'd remove McKinnon from that list).   Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid are the only players over the last 20 years that deserve to be labelled as 'generational' in my opinion.  

 

Bedard will be the next one.  Dude is going to get 80 points playing by himself.  Imagine if he had Draisaitl playing with him?  McDavid has the speed, but Bedard has the shot...

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3 hours ago, Canuckleheads Fan said:

How many cups did be win? Part of makes a generational player to me is cup wins. If you can't drive your team to a cup, I don't think you are that generational. So as good as McDavid is, he is not really generational until he wins his cup. Petey will be generational, once he wins a cup. He will be a 100 point player this season. Nucks will win the cup in the three to five years.

For someone who's saying he won't have another player like EP in his lifetime (well we've had Bure, Mogilny and the twins), you should be aware that we've gone from 6-12 -21 to a decade later 24 to 30, and now 32 teams.   A cup every 32 years is average now.  Yikes.   A lot of great players have never won a cup.  Dionne says (and I actually believe this, having watched them both play), if MTL drafted him instead of Lafleur, he'd of scored 1000 goals.    Still managed around 430 ish  more points, on some pretty mediocre teams.    Thornton was awfully good too.    Hawerchuk.   Others too. 

 

EP isn't generational.   And that's ok.  Dionne and Lafleur were, one was fortunate, one wasn't.   And that's going back to original expansion.     Does this make O'Reilly generational?  Or Zetterberg?   Or Williams?   For winning Conn Smythes or being a key part in cup winners?    Don't think so. 

 

Generational, simply means once in a generation.   And the definition of a super-star is that you are a tier above the other stars in the league.   Think a perrenial first and second all-star member, or a regular top 3 or so in voting.      Borque is probably the best example of that.   Regularly a first or second string all-star.     
 

EP hasn't staked  a claim on first or second string all-star yet, but did get some great props last year,  5th best center and 7th for Selke and that's just his position, Byng votes and a couple Hart votes too  (for sure he wins that this year) There are a couple guys blocking super-star, but maybe he gets there.  Bure had Jagr and others but still managed that when he played, he was a super-star (to go with his Richard and Hart votes). 

 

Naslund did it in the dead puck era.   So he also managed it for a few seasons anyways, on the best line in hockey.    The Sedins were stars but not really super-stars, aside from one year a piece.     In a 32 team league ... it's also harder to hold onto that status maybe,  Kucherov for example, and our very own Sedins.    

Is Doughty really generational?   Personally preferred Weber, who never won a Norris or a cup. 

 

Edit:  As for super-star, there really can only be a couple at any given time, or a few.    Not everyone is a super-star.    EP has the potential to be one for sure.   He's trending that way as well. 

Edited by IBatch
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5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

For someone who's saying he won't have another player like EP in his lifetime (well we've had Bure, Mogilny and the twins), you should be aware that we've gone from 6-12 -21 to a decade later 24 to 30, and now 32 teams.   A cup every 32 years is average now.  Yikes.   A lot of great players have never won a cup.  Dionne says (and I actually believe this, having watched them both play), if MTL drafted him instead of Lafleur, he'd of scored 1000 goals.    Still managed around 430 ish  more points, on some pretty mediocre teams.    Thornton was awfully good too.    Hawerchuk.   Others too. 

 

EP isn't generational.   And that's ok.  Dionne and Lafleur were, one was fortunate, one wasn't.   And that's going back to original expansion.     Does this make O'Reilly generational?  Or Zetterberg?   Or Williams?   For winning Conn Smythes or being a key part in cup winners?    Don't think so. 

 

Generational, simply means once in a generation.   And the definition of a super-star is that you are a tier above the other stars in the league.   Think a perrenial first and second all-star member, or a regular top 3 or so in voting.      Borque is probably the best example of that.   Regularly a first or second string all-star.     
 

EP hasn't stayed a claim on first or second string all-star yet.     There are a couple guys blocking that.    So super-star status isn't a reality yet.   Bure had Jagr and others but still managed that when he played, he was a super-star (to go with his Richard and Hart votes). 

 

Naslund did it in the dead puck era.   So he also managed it for a few seasons anyways, on the best line in hockey.    The Sedins were stars but not really super-stars, aside from one year a piece.     In a 32 team league ... it's also harder to hold onto that status maybe,  Kucherov for example, and our very own Sedins.    

Is Doughty really generational?   Personally preferred Weber, who never won a Norris or a cup. 

Every player you named played with other great players on his line. All Star type players. Lafleur has Shutt, Lemaire and others, even Dionne had Simmer and Taylor. But Dionne is right about now great he would have been in Montreal. I loved him back I the day, I'm built like he was, so I kind of idolized him. Did he make Simmer and Taylor better, for sure, but they were better in their era than anybody EP has played with other than JT. EP isn't generational...yet, but he's still maturing, we have yet to see him at his best. With actual real top-six talent how many more points would he have? if he had Draisaitl on his wing, he'd be in the McDavid conversation. Petey will be at his peak in two or three years. Maybe Pods will get another shot with him in that time and they can gel. Or maybe Lekkerimaki will live up to the hype. Yes the Twins were great, imagine what Petey could do with Daniel on his wing, or a Mogilny. Give him somebody who can finish, or somebody who can feed him the puck in space and Petey is a 120+ PPS player every year. Then we can talk about generational talent.

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2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Bedard will be the next one.  Dude is going to get 80 points playing by himself.  Imagine if he had Draisaitl playing with him?  McDavid has the speed, but Bedard has the shot...

 

Agreed although it's sometimes tough to predict how players will pan out. 

 

During the deadpuck era for example (1995-2004), I'm not sure if any of those players quite made it to 'generational' level.  Forsberg and Lindros possibly would have had they stayed healthy, but I don't think any of them crossed over.  Sakic, Modano, Sundin, and Yzerman were superstars, but probably not 'generational.'   

Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, and Marty Brodeur were probably close but even then, I'm not so sure.  Jarmoir Jagr, Scott Niedermayer, and Nik Lidstrom were also probably on that border.  I think that post Gretzky-Lemieux pre Crosby-Ovechkin era had a lot of high end superstars, but no one quite in that generational tier.  Of course, that's just my opinion.  My requirements for 'generational' are quite stringent.  

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5 hours ago, Blue said:

The original poster was making a fair point but yeah , Jack Eichel is the counter point. He's making 10 and they won the cup. 

 

He brings up Jack Hughs. But we already have a Jack Hughs type deals on the books. Quinn and Demko. Granted they are shorter than Jacks deal.

 

No, you missed my point if you believe that Jack Eichel was the counter point to my original point (I'm the OP by the way).  

 

I don't give two Cameroonian shits what someone's cap hit is.  Cap hit percentage relative to the salary cap (i.e. C.H.%) is key.  Hence, why I made the point that Boston, LA, and Chicago won cups between 2010-2015 despite Crosby and Ovechkin being the two best players during that time.  As the salary cap gradually started to increase however, Crosby and Ovie's C.H.% started to become lower (and as result, went from being 'premium' contracts to 'excellent value' contracts).  Meanwhile, guys like Toews, Kane, and Kopitar received $10+ million dollar contracts (inappropriate high C.H%'s at that time), which contributed to Chicago and LA's downfalls.  Pittsburgh and Washington however won the next 3 cups.   That was my point.   

 

As far as Jack Hughes goes, his contract and 'value' is significantly higher than Pettersson's, Hughes, and Demko's because, along with his "high value" cap hit, his contract is much longer in length (and so you basically answered your own query here).   Jack Hughes has arguably the best 'value' contract in the league when you take both term and cap hit into consideration.  

Edited by Jeremy Hronek
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4 hours ago, Canuckleheads Fan said:

How many cups did be win? Part of makes a generational player to me is cup wins. If you can't drive your team to a cup, I don't think you are that generational. So as good as McDavid is, he is not really generational until he wins his cup. Petey will be generational, once he wins a cup. He will be a 100 point player this season. Nucks will win the cup in the three to five years.

Uhh... what???  OK that's just stupid.  Mcdavid could win 0 cups, but it doesn't change what kinda player he is as an individual.

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3 hours ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

 

Tremendous superstar but not generational.   Generational talents are guys like Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid.  These are guys that 'define' a certain generation. In the NBA, that would be guys like Jordan, Kobe, and Lebron.   

I'm not actually saying Bure is generational.  I'm just responding to that poster that said Petey is the closest this franchise has had to a generational talent in his lifetime.  I guess it's my mistake to assume he was around in the 90s? Lol

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16 hours ago, Canuckleheads Fan said:

Maybe a little overstated, but probably the closest this team will have during my lifetime. 

 

You're overlooking something obvious my friend.  

 

Believe it or not, the Canucks have not only had a player that was *closer* to being a generational talent than Pettersson, but nay, actually *had* a generational talent that actually played for them.

 

Oh it's true......it's damn true!   

 

Now, "who is he talking about?" you may ask?

 

Is it Pavel? King Richard? Henrik?  Daniel?  Smyl?  Linden?  Naslund?  Who?!?!        

 

Whelp - here's my answer.  It's about character.  It's about commitment.  It's about where we're from.  

 

p.s.____________________Betchya can't "kwat" just once!

 

 

Screenshot 2023-12-21 at 12.41.31 AM.png

Edited by Jeremy Hronek
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