Are the Canucks on the Path of worse case scenario? or is there a Glimmer of Hope?

[tas]

5 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

How do you know I didn't

 

I keep my private life private for the most part. I even use my mothers maiden name in my email addresses and on my most public accounts. 

 

I don't care if people know me in my hockey life but for my family Business I keep it Private our family runs a developments and construction company and what I do on line and on social media need to stay separate from business life.

they seem to list every player that ever played for them that moved on to us college hockey (and many other leagues). the only guy listed as playing for und is 66, not 40. 

[spook007]

55 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

 

As you can see in a post prior to yours I don't care if they have to go through the best teams the reason are exactly what you mentioned I would love to see them beat the best of the best. I just don't know if they can with Tocchet at the Helm.

What has Tocchet done, that makes you think,he can't get it done?

I'd suggest, he has done a decent job so far, and that the players seems to like playing for him?

Just curious...

[Lemon Face]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I'm pretty sure that LA does not want to play us in the 1st round either.  It works both ways.  Same with Vegas.  You think Vegas wants any piece of us in a 7 game series, especially now that we have Ivan Drago on defence?

We dont know what final roster will looks like?It will be changes before or on trade deadline.

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

5 minutes ago, spook007 said:

What has Tocchet done, that makes you think,he can't get it done?

I'd suggest, he has done a decent job so far, and that the players seems to like playing for him?

Just curious...

I have been very vocal on this already, So in short his experience as a head coach and the lack of consistence of the teams defensive structure, PK being #1 and not being prepared to start games at the 1st drop of the puck and finally constantly being out shot. All of this is leading to the team having to exhaust more energy in periods 2 and 3 and by the end of the game not having enough in the tank to close out teams. Stronger the opponent the harder it is for them and in the playoffs every game is a hard opponent.  

[Tocchet.A.Hockey.God]

27 minutes ago, tas said:

they seem to list every player that ever played for them that moved on to us college hockey (and many other leagues). the only guy listed as playing for und is 66, not 40. 

As I said I keep my private life private.

[Sophomore Jinx]

9 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I have been very vocal on this already, So in short his experience as a head coach and the lack of consistence of the teams defensive structure, PK being #1 and not being prepared to start games at the 1st drop of the puck and finally constantly being out shot. All of this is leading to the team having to exhaust more energy in periods 2 and 3 and by the end of the game not having enough in the tank to close out teams. Stronger the opponent the harder it is for them and in the playoffs every game is a hard opponent.  

Defensive structure? With over 40% of the season already played, their overall defensive structure has been very consistent...

 

Only one team in the entire league (LAK) has a lesser goals per game percentage

 

LAK - 2.41

 

VAN - 2.5

 

And the coach has plenty of "experience", and he has them running at a clip good enough for 1st place OA at the Christmas break

[tas]

28 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

As I said I keep my private life private.

what does that mean? 

[Sativika]

I'd say there's both, a Path of worse case scenario and a Glimmer of Hope.

 

[IBatch]

57 minutes ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I have been very vocal on this already, So in short his experience as a head coach and the lack of consistence of the teams defensive structure, PK being #1 and not being prepared to start games at the 1st drop of the puck and finally constantly being out shot. All of this is leading to the team having to exhaust more energy in periods 2 and 3 and by the end of the game not having enough in the tank to close out teams. Stronger the opponent the harder it is for them and in the playoffs every game is a hard opponent.  

Umm.   Aren't we still undefeated going into the third period with the lead in regulation?   How is that not, "closing out teams".  

[GrammaInTheTub]

2 hours ago, John.Tallhouse said:

I dunno man, it’s been a tough decade. I’ll be giddy as shit when they lock in that playoff spot.

Hell yeah. Get in and anything can happen! 

[Provost]

I am not sure how making the playoffs, and in a higher seed somehow translates into “worst case scenario”.

 

1.  We are in the playoffs, so that is already a win.

2.  As a wildcard you play one of the division winners, so that is definitely worse.

3.  You have to beat all the other teams to win the Cup.  It isn’t like there is a magical path of easy opponents.  They are all playoff teams.

4.  At “best” you are likely holding off facing one of those teams for one round.  

 

 

[Satchmo]

2 hours ago, CanuckFanForever said:

Nope not King Heffy.

 

I will give you a hint to who I am, I am 40 years old played two years for the Merrit Centennials. Then for the University of North Dakota.

 

I have also part time assistant coached for 4 BCHL teams in the last 12 years and turn down a job from the WHL because the team was in Alberta and they wanted me to coach full time as their assistant where I would have been in charge of the defense and PK. My specialty and what I'm known for coaching in the BCHL.

Wow!  That's impressive!   Now I can understand why you know more than our current coaching staff.  

 

The only question I might have is why two years is not enough time to learn how to spell Merritt.  Not that spelling is a big deal though - it's hockey IQ that really counts and it sounds like you have that in spades.

 

[Jeremy Hronek]

7 hours ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I have been watching the standings very closely this whole season as I bet most of you have and now that they sit 1st in their conference Tied in pts with Vegas but with the tie breaker of regulation wins 21 to 15 (which is just outstanding) and leading the League in points with Vegas @ 47 ( keep in mind that both the Rangers and Bruins have 4 games in hand with point % .750 and .733 respectively). 

 

As impressive as all this is it is what is happening below them that make the Canucks position in their conference get dicey. Which will beg the Question Is it the worse case scenario?

 

Let me explain?

 

So far it looks like no team in the Pacific is going to catch Vegas, Vancouver or LA. Which means the Canucks are going to be 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their division. That means the Canucks path through the playoffs works out in 2 ways. Either the Canuck place 2nd or 3rd (2/3 chance of this happening) and they play LA or Vegas in the first round. If they get through to the second they play LA or Vegas in the 2nd round assuming no great upset 8th place team knocking out the 1st place team in the Conference. If the Canucks make it to the 3rd round they than end up playing Dal, Col or Winn to get through to the final (those 3 teams currently lead the Central division and have the best odds at this point).

 

What makes this the worse Case Scenario is, Just to advance to the Conference final the Canucks would have to play the 2 best teams other then themselves in the in the western conference. 

 

The Facts, here are the Pt % of the top 5 other then the Canucks so you don't need to look them up in the western conference. Vegas = .691, LA .690, Dal .677, Winn .661 and Col .636.

 

Let me just show you one other thing that I noticed.

 

The Canucks have a very small chance of dropping to 7th place and yet if they where this would be their path instead. Currently the 7th place team Nash with a pt% of .576 would play Dal in the first round and if they beat them, Nash would then have to play Col or Win never seeing LA, Vegas or Canucks until the Conference Final. This is a far easier path then having to play Vega and LA then the top remaining team in the western division. That means if the Canucks dropped to 7th they would play Dals and then 1 of Col or Win and then what ever seed still remained in the Pacific LA, Vegas or other.

 

Just to show you that the Canucks have almost a zero chance at 7th place currently Nash and Ari currently hold the wild card positions (both central division teams) so either 1 of Cal, Sea, or Edm would have to come back to knock the Canucks out of the top 3 position in the pacific. However if they did do this yes the Canucks at this point would take the first wildcard 7th position. But as it currently stands Cal pt % is .500, Sea is .456 and Edm is .483. 

 

The Glimmer of Hope.

 

Canucks place 1st in the Pacific (which would essentially place them first in the Conference) The Canucks would then play the 2nd wild card position or the 8th team in the western conference  (currently Ari) and then the Winner of LA or Vegas.

 

Disclaimer there're is scenarios 3 as well. Ari Knocks out let's say Vegas and the Canucks beat LA and the Canucks Play Ari in the 2nd round. Less likely but sill a possibility.

 

Why is Playing Vegas and LA the worse case scenario other than having to play both teams?

 

The Canucks are not playoff hardened yet. As impressive as this season has been for them it is still the regular season and the playoffs all together is a different beast and the Canucks are currently staring down the hardest playoff schedule of all division leaders. 

 

As you all know, I have been hard on Coach Tocchet and will remain pointing out the flaws of this team and it's structure exactly because of what I have written here today. Tired can not be and excuse not being prepared to start games, Their PK being close to the bottom of the league their PP now faltering can not happen to a team that wants to succeed in the playoffs that is currently looking down a great possibility of having the hardest playoff schedule in the league. These flaws are just the recipe of a 1 and done team and I know that most Canuck fans do not want to see this happen.

 

Forever A Canucks Fan who one day wants to see a Canuck team bring home a Cup.

 

 

 

 

 

With respect,

 

All of this talk of "glimmer of hope" reeks of cowardice.  

 

The bottom line is that the Canucks are going to have a tough 1st round opponent no matter who they play.  If they finish first in the Conference, you're likely looking at St. Louis, Nashville, or Edmonton (I think the Oilers will climb the standings while Arizona will drop just as Anaheim did a few seasons back).  

 

And if we finish 2nd or 3rd, it's Vegas or LA.     

 

For better of for worse, there's lots of parity in the NHL, and the Canucks will need to bring their A game regardless of who they play.   

 

 

[PeteyBOI]

3 minutes ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

 

With respect,

 

All of this talk of "glimmer of hope" reeks of cowardice.  

 

The bottom line is that the Canucks are going to have a tough 1st round opponent no matter who they play.  If they finish first in the Conference, you're likely looking at St. Louis, Nashville, or Edmonton (I think the Oilers will climb the standings while Arizona will drop just as Anaheim did a few seasons back).  

 

And if we finish 2nd or 3rd, it's Vegas or LA.     

 

For better of for worse, there's lots of parity in the NHL, and the Canucks will need to bring their A game regardless of who they play.   

 

 

i see youre making friends again... youre a real go getter

[PeteyBOI]

6 hours ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I agree, but the exception is that they don't usually get knocked out in the first round.

for a person that hates the exception arguments you sure make alot of them

[PeteyBOI]

4 hours ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I have been very vocal on this already, So in short his experience as a head coach and the lack of consistence of the teams defensive structure, PK being #1 and not being prepared to start games at the 1st drop of the puck and finally constantly being out shot. All of this is leading to the team having to exhaust more energy in periods 2 and 3 and by the end of the game not having enough in the tank to close out teams. Stronger the opponent the harder it is for them and in the playoffs every game is a hard opponent.  

LUL

[PeteyBOI]

CanucksFanForever...

 

CFF well some of you...

 

[Silent Man]

8 hours ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I have been watching the standings very closely this whole season as I bet most of you have and now that they sit 1st in their conference Tied in pts with Vegas but with the tie breaker of regulation wins 21 to 15 (which is just outstanding) and leading the League in points with Vegas @ 47 ( keep in mind that both the Rangers and Bruins have 4 games in hand with point % .750 and .733 respectively). 

 

As impressive as all this is it is what is happening below them that make the Canucks position in their conference get dicey. Which will beg the Question Is it the worse case scenario?

 

Let me explain?

 

So far it looks like no team in the Pacific is going to catch Vegas, Vancouver or LA. Which means the Canucks are going to be 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their division. That means the Canucks path through the playoffs works out in 2 ways. Either the Canuck place 2nd or 3rd (2/3 chance of this happening) and they play LA or Vegas in the first round. If they get through to the second they play LA or Vegas in the 2nd round assuming no great upset 8th place team knocking out the 1st place team in the Conference. If the Canucks make it to the 3rd round they than end up playing Dal, Col or Winn to get through to the final (those 3 teams currently lead the Central division and have the best odds at this point).

 

What makes this the worse Case Scenario is, Just to advance to the Conference final the Canucks would have to play the 2 best teams other then themselves in the in the western conference. 

 

The Facts, here are the Pt % of the top 5 other then the Canucks so you don't need to look them up in the western conference. Vegas = .691, LA .690, Dal .677, Winn .661 and Col .636.

 

Let me just show you one other thing that I noticed.

 

The Canucks have a very small chance of dropping to 7th place and yet if they where this would be their path instead. Currently the 7th place team Nash with a pt% of .576 would play Dal in the first round and if they beat them, Nash would then have to play Col or Win never seeing LA, Vegas or Canucks until the Conference Final. This is a far easier path then having to play Vega and LA then the top remaining team in the western division. That means if the Canucks dropped to 7th they would play Dals and then 1 of Col or Win and then what ever seed still remained in the Pacific LA, Vegas or other.

 

Just to show you that the Canucks have almost a zero chance at 7th place currently Nash and Ari currently hold the wild card positions (both central division teams) so either 1 of Cal, Sea, or Edm would have to come back to knock the Canucks out of the top 3 position in the pacific. However if they did do this yes the Canucks at this point would take the first wildcard 7th position. But as it currently stands Cal pt % is .500, Sea is .456 and Edm is .483. 

 

The Glimmer of Hope.

 

Canucks place 1st in the Pacific (which would essentially place them first in the Conference) The Canucks would then play the 2nd wild card position or the 8th team in the western conference  (currently Ari) and then the Winner of LA or Vegas.

 

Disclaimer there're is scenarios 3 as well. Ari Knocks out let's say Vegas and the Canucks beat LA and the Canucks Play Ari in the 2nd round. Less likely but sill a possibility.

 

Why is Playing Vegas and LA the worse case scenario other than having to play both teams?

 

The Canucks are not playoff hardened yet. As impressive as this season has been for them it is still the regular season and the playoffs all together is a different beast and the Canucks are currently staring down the hardest playoff schedule of all division leaders. 

 

As you all know, I have been hard on Coach Tocchet and will remain pointing out the flaws of this team and it's structure exactly because of what I have written here today. Tired can not be and excuse not being prepared to start games, Their PK being close to the bottom of the league their PP now faltering can not happen to a team that wants to succeed in the playoffs that is currently looking down a great possibility of having the hardest playoff schedule in the league. These flaws are just the recipe of a 1 and done team and I know that most Canuck fans do not want to see this happen.

 

Forever A Canucks Fan who one day wants to see a Canuck team bring home a Cup.

 

 

 

 

I am sorry. I really appreciate your efforts to write this long, post, but, unfortunately, this "Canuck place 2nd or 3rd (2/3 chance of this happening)" makes zero sense from pure mathematical point of view. Sorry again, like I said, I appreciate your efforts and obvious passion for the game.

[iceman1964]

6 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

How people seem to forget. Last year under Bruce the team had 18 wins, 25 losses and 3 OT losses in 46 games

As of 22 Dec2023, the team has 22 Wins, 9 Losses, and 3 OT losses in 34 games.

We are not even a full year under the coach, and the team is playing far better.

Has the turnaround been amazing? You bet!

JR/PA and the coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for helping our players turn things around.

But to say that some of the top teams in the league are afraid of Vancouver?

No. Concerned and wary yes, as they should be.

 

I just want to make the playoffs, and win regardless who we play. The tougher the road, the more sweeter the wins.

I hate to be a downer on things, yes I think we can make the post season if we can continue to half assed cheat the injury bug unlike our usual scenario but I'm still pessimistic because like so many years before, we get injuries and then we fall flat for lack of depth.

 Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get excited about our chances but after all those years of getting close with no depth and then the usual fall, well you know, I just can't.

 Am I happy that might not be the case if we keep the majority of our picks and develop them for a change and not sell them off? F yes!! 

Will that actually happen? Idk, your guess is as good as mine but I'd be pretty happy if it did for once.

[Johnny]

This just in

 

If the Canucks make the playoffs they will have to play a really good team

[Dr. Crossbar]

35 minutes ago, Johnny said:

This just in

 

If the Canucks make the playoffs they will have to play a really good team

 

Follow up

 

Really good teams aren't scared to play really good teams. 

[spook007]

6 hours ago, CanuckFanForever said:

I have been very vocal on this already, So in short his experience as a head coach and the lack of consistence of the teams defensive structure, PK being #1 and not being prepared to start games at the 1st drop of the puck and finally constantly being out shot. All of this is leading to the team having to exhaust more energy in periods 2 and 3 and by the end of the game not having enough in the tank to close out teams. Stronger the opponent the harder it is for them and in the playoffs every game is a hard opponent.  

That's a fair way of looking at it...

I'd still say, if you manage to get your team to the top of the league standings, you must be doing something right. And more right than wrong. 
Imagine they change the coach and it goes pear shaped, then what?

 

If they can't keep it up, then by all means have a go at him, but I'd argue, he has earned the right to coach his team, as he likes. 

[PeteyBOI]

17 minutes ago, spook007 said:

That's a fair way of looking at it...

I'd still say, if you manage to get your team to the top of the league standings, you must be doing something right. And more right than wrong. 
Imagine they change the coach and it goes pear shaped, then what?

 

If they can't keep it up, then by all means have a go at him, but I'd argue, he has earned the right to coach his team, as he likes. 

is it a fair way to look at it? The canucks skate way less miles than their opponents. A + B in this situation does not = c

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I'm pretty sure that LA does not want to play us in the 1st round either.  It works both ways.  Same with Vegas.  You think Vegas wants any piece of us in a 7 game series, especially now that we have Ivan Drago on defence?

Funny how Dallas doesn't and COL aren't getting the same respect.    As if they aren't every bit as tough to beat as Vegas and LA. 

[Jeremy Hronek]

5 hours ago, MidKnight Ego said:

i see youre making friends again... youre a real go getter

 

Fair enough but I don't understand the intended spirit of his post.

 

As I was reading his post, he reminded me of someone that wants to play football but is afraid of breaking a fingernail.

 

Hockey doesn't work like that.  Life doesn't work like that.  

 

You give it your best and welcome all challenges no matter what they are.  

 

If you're looking for safety and security, the doors of Michael Jackson's Neverland Ranch kindly awaits you.   

 

The Canucks need to be prepared no matter who they face and they'll need to "bring it."