The Canucks’ post-holiday schedule sets them up perfectly as masters of their own fate

[Sophomore Jinx]

The Canucks’ post-holiday schedule sets them up perfectly as masters of their own fate

 

The Canucks’ post-holiday schedule sets them up perfectly as masters of their own fate©

 ? Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

 

 

The Vancouver Canucks are not quite at the halfway point in their 2023/24 campaign, but on Thursday against the Philadelphia Flyers they played the last game in the “2023” portion of the schedule.

The Philadelphia matchup marked the Canucks’ 36^th game on the season, and while it didn’t go exactly as planned, the Canucks should still end the calendar year in either first place in the NHL or within a point or two thereof.

 

New Year’s is a time of reflection, which makes it a perfect time to look back at that amazing record and bask in the glory of its sheer unexpectedness.

But it’s also a time to look forward, and to wonder what’s next, and on that front we’ve actually got some relevant information.

Vancouver will play 46 more games in the regular season following the flip from 2023 to 2024. Digging into that schedule allows us to see a lot about the next four months or so, and how the shape of them is going to impact the Canucks and their ongoing success.

First, let’s talk density.

Prior to the break, the Canucks had played 35 games in the 74 calendar days between October 11’s season-opening stomping of the Oilers and December 23’s filleting of the Sharks. Those are two nice bookends, sure, but they also represent the outermost bounds of some truly compact hockey.

 

That’s very nearly a rate of a game every other night.

It’s worth noting too that the Canucks had a five-game road-trip in early October, and that November was just chock full of travel. It’s also worth noting that those three months also featured five back-to-back situations, from which the Canucks pulled five of their 12 cumulative losses on the season.

In other words, it has been a grueling stretch of schedule, with little time for rest and even less time for practice.

It’s just been less noticeable than it usually is because the Canucks have been winning throughout it.

So what comes next?

From the Philadelphia game onward, the Canucks will play 47 games from December 28 to April 18, a span of 112 days.

The previous schedule of 35 games in 74 days works out to one game per every 2.11 days. The upcoming 47 games in 112 days works out to a game per every 2.38 days. That might not sound like a huge discrepancy, but think of it this way: the Canucks played on 47.3% of their days in the first chunk of the schedule, and they’ll be playing on only 42% of their days from here on out.

 

That’s an extra 5% of days that have now been freed up for practice and rest. Really, when you think about it, it’s remarkable that head coach Rick Tocchet has been able to achieve such concrete buy-in to his system under these circumstances, with such limited practice time. A 5% increase in on-ice time with the coaches can’t help but be an exciting prospect to the fans that have loved what they’ve seen so far.

Speaking of Tocchet, let’s get on to Strength of Schedule, known colloquially as SOS. It’s a stat based on the estimated strength of all the opponents a team still has to face on their remaining schedule. Most will remember that last season’s Tocchet Turnaround came at the same time as the Canucks enjoyed a late-year schedule featuring a very low SOS. This resulted in many advising caution, and a “wait and see” approach as to whether the impact of Tocchet was the real deal.

 

This season has proven that the deal was, indeed, real. But since we’re all familiar with SOS as a concept now, let’s look at how it will impact the ’24 Canucks.

When Tocchet took over in late January last year, his Canucks spent the remainder of the season fluctuating around the bottom-end of the SOS charts.

This time around, Tocchet heads into January with a much more difficult task ahead of him, at least as this stat measures it.

According to the folks over at Tankathon, the Canucks have a remaining strength of schedule score of .563, which can be vaguely understood (but not exactly) as the average record of their remaining opponents. That’s tied with the Detroit Red Wings for the 11^th most difficult SOS in the league.

Which doesn’t sound so bad. It’s on the high side of middle-of-the-pack. But that comes with some caveats:

 

• The Canucks are only .006 away from being in the top-four of the SOS chart, and it’s tight up at the top.
• The Canucks have the highest remaining SOS of any Pacific Division team.
• Two of the teams most likely to challenge the Canucks for a playoff spot, Los Angeles and Edmonton, are in the bottom-five for remaining strength of schedule.
• The Canucks play Ottawa, St. Louis, Buffalo, Columbus, and Chicago within the first three weeks of January. As of that January 22 mark, the point at which Tocchet took over last year, the SOS gets decidedly more difficult.

So, the Canucks’ remaining strength of schedule is a lot harder than it was at this point last year, and it’s only going to get harder from here on out.

Which is not to say that the Canucks are doomed, or set to regress, or likely to slide in the standings. All it really means is that no one is going to be able to point to an “easy” schedule as the reason for their success. Whatever they achieve from this point onward, the Canucks will have earned, the hard way.

And where one sees difficulty, another might see opportunity. Because there’s one more secret hiding in the remaining schedule, and it’s one that will allow the Canucks to become masters of their own 2023/24 destiny.

The Canucks are about to enter a long stretch of interdivisional play. They won’t play another opponent from the Pacific until February 22 against the Seattle Kraken. From that point on, however? It’s divisional city.

A full 13 of the Canucks’ final 24 games on the regular season are against Pacific Division rivals. Of those 13 games, seven are against the Vegas Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings, the two teams closest to the Canucks in the standings.

So, yes, the rest of the 2023/24 schedule does present the Canucks with some difficulties, at least in terms of the quality of competition they’re about to face. But it also grants them a lot more breathing room than they’ve become accustomed to in the early going, and it gifts them with a real opportunity to take a direct hand in their final place in the standings.

Based on what we’ve seen from this team and its coach so far, we don’t think that’s an opportunity the Canucks will shy away from.

 

[Sophomore Jinx]

They have definitely had a grueling schedule up to this point, and while the remaining 46 games won't be as condensed and packed in as the first 36 games were, their SOS is going to be more challenging.

 

Hopefully with the extra practice time and rest they will at least be able to maintain their current pace (miracles happen, right?) or at worst digress to .500 or slightly above. They certainly can't afford to take many nights off from here on out.

[Jess]

At least playoffs are virtually guaranteed, unless we suffer a monumental collapse. Still, teams that go in with momentum into the playoffs often see success, so if we hobble into the playoffs at 3rd in the Pacific, I wouldn't have high hopes for us against the Kings or Golden Knights.

[Sophomore Jinx]

4 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

At least playoffs are virtually guaranteed, unless we suffer a monumental collapse. Still, teams that go in with momentum into the playoffs often see success, so if we hobble into the playoffs at 3rd in the Pacific, I wouldn't have high hopes for us against the Kings or Golden Knights.

it's all about momentum and final position in the standings

 

 

[Canuck You]

I always try to reserve judgement until after the TDL on who will go the farthest between the top teams, Major or even subtle moves can put a team over the top or even make them flop.

[Mathew Barzal]

Will be a curious deadline. If management is eyeing next year as the first big year I’m fine with them sitting back and doing nothing, or even selling Kuzy.

 

However, if we’re looking dominant and have a chance to make a run we need to shore up our defense. As good as our defense has looked under Tocchet’s system, the good teams that have an extra gear will dismantle our defense, Hughes/Hronek included (who IMHO ideally aren’t a pairing).

 

We need a true defensive #2/3 dman to put us in contention status. Most of our dcore should be shifted a pairing down under ideal circumstances.

[gwarrior]

The guys just need to seize the opportunity. Bank as many points as they can, especially when they're getting, what? Ottawa then St. Louis coming up. They gotta get wins there.

[Mackcanuck]

Suck it Oilers!

 

[PeteyBoeser]

On 12/29/2023 at 2:30 PM, -AJ- said:

At least playoffs are virtually guaranteed, unless we suffer a monumental collapse. Still, teams that go in with momentum into the playoffs often see success, so if we hobble into the playoffs at 3rd in the Pacific, I wouldn't have high hopes for us against the Kings or Golden Knights.

Nothing is guaranteed for the Canucks.. all it takes is six game losing streak and we’re behind the Oilers and out of playoffs.. I mean we had the chance to be first team to 50 points but they had their worst effort at home vs Flyers 

[Jess]

1 minute ago, PeteyBoeser said:

Nothing is guaranteed for the Canucks.. all it takes is six game losing streak and we’re behind the Oilers and out of playoffs.. I mean we had the chance to be first team to 50 points but they had their worst effort at home vs Flyers 

If we lose six straight in regulation and the Oilers win six straight, sure, but that's not terribly likely. It's that kind of thinking in reverse that kept my hopes up for making the playoffs so many times in these past years, but it almost never works in extremes like that.

[-dlc-]

25 minutes ago, PeteyBoeser said:

Nothing is guaranteed for the Canucks.. all it takes is six game losing streak and we’re behind the Oilers and out of playoffs.. I mean we had the chance to be first team to 50 points but they had their worst effort at home vs Flyers 

And we could be struck by lightning and not even get to see the outcome.

 

The beauty of this is that "anything can happen" but this team knows what it's like to lose and I don't think they'll settle in with a losing streak without pushing back.

 

Nothing is guaranteed is right....so apply that to beating the Flyers. You seem to want guaranteed wins but it just doesn't happen that way. Yes, they were off...but it's not cause for panic.

[Tusk]

11 minutes ago, -dlc- said:

And we could be struck by lightning and not even get to see the outcome.

 

The beauty of this is that "anything can happen" but this team knows what it's like to lose and I don't think they'll settle in with a losing streak without pushing back.

 

Nothing is guaranteed is right....so apply that to beating the Flyers. You seem to want guaranteed wins but it just doesn't happen that way. Yes, they were off...but it's not cause for panic.

Wouldnt we want to play Edmonton in the first round if they manage to scramble a wildcard? I mean I think we have a psychological advantage this year and it would boost us into second round.

[DrJockitch]

3 minutes ago, Tusk said:

Wouldnt we want to play Edmonton in the first round if they manage to scramble a wildcard? I mean I think we have a psychological advantage this year and it would boost us into second round.

If Edmonton makes the playoffs they will be riding a hot goalie and will be a team surging majorly. As crappy as they look at times we would be playing 5on7 every game. The refs would kill us in that series.  As much as we have improved our PK is still below average. That is a tough out.
Then again the other options are LA or LV. 

Edited January 1 by DrJockitch

[Tusk]

ok so maybe second or third round? I mean it will be fun to see that series.

2 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

If Edmonton makes the playoffs they will be riding a hot goalie and will be a team surging majorly. As crappy as they look at times we would be playing 5on7 every game. The refs would kill us in that series.  As much as we have improved our PK is still below average. That is a tough out.
Then again the other options are LA or LV. 

by the time we are at the playoffs we are going to be even better, remember that.

[Randy Marsh]

Team can go close to .500 rest of the way and still make the playoffs.

Rebuilding years spent barely hanging on by a thread or being out completely before November was even though. Nice to finally have a cushion again, and playing fewer 'meaningful' games for completely different reasons.

[IBatch]

On 12/30/2023 at 4:49 AM, Mathew Barzal said:

Will be a curious deadline. If management is eyeing next year as the first big year I’m fine with them sitting back and doing nothing, or even selling Kuzy.

 

However, if we’re looking dominant and have a chance to make a run we need to shore up our defense. As good as our defense has looked under Tocchet’s system, the good teams that have an extra gear will dismantle our defense, Hughes/Hronek included (who IMHO ideally aren’t a pairing).

 

We need a true defensive #2/3 dman to put us in contention status. Most of our dcore should be shifted a pairing down under ideal circumstances.

Management could and should also be, considering next year as THE year.   With this core anyways.   

Edited January 2 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 1/1/2024 at 1:44 AM, DrJockitch said:

If Edmonton makes the playoffs they will be riding a hot goalie and will be a team surging majorly. As crappy as they look at times we would be playing 5on7 every game. The refs would kill us in that series.  As much as we have improved our PK is still below average. That is a tough out.
Then again the other options are LA or LV. 

EDM doesn't worry me much.     Figure that team is a couple years removed from disintegration.    We could play them as the top seed, and they as a wild card team, which is one of the better scenarios, but we need to add a bastard/SOB first.   They can be a dirty team.   That's the only thing that's worrisome.  

Edited January 2 by IBatch