Miss Korea Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, Provost said: it is absolutely possible, PDO doesn’t explain wins all that well as a stat, so I don’t know why folks are all hung up on it more than many other metrics. The PDO could drop to closer to average and out winning % could stay the same. The only way our PDO would drop closer to 100 and still win the same amount of games is if we start volume shooting (ie. 35+ shots per game). That is not our playstyle and certainly won't be the case this year. The inverse could happen where Demko starts letting in goals like crazy. But how would we still be winning games? 7-6 gunfights? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Miss Korea said: The only way our PDO would drop closer to 100 and still win the same amount of games is if we start volume shooting (ie. 35+ shots per game). That is not our playstyle and certainly won't be the case this year. The inverse could happen where Demko starts letting in goals like crazy. But how would we still be winning games? 7-6 gunfights? Not even remotely… The most glaring aspect is that it only calculates even strength shots and goals. We could have a 100 PDO the rest of the way out and our special teams become a monster and we keeping winning anyways. Shooting percentage and save percentage is also a function of your opposition. Who is shooting against you and who you are shooting at, and how they are playing. It is a fairly poor proxy for wins/points in standings. Worse than goal differential, which has a really strong correlation translating to wins. Arizona has the 5th best PDO in the league and isn’t in a playoff position as a good example. They can lose with a good PDO, the reverse is also true. Edited January 17 by Provost 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballisticsports Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just read this for fun To see how far this Vancouver Canucks team has come in just one year is nothing short of spectacular. January 12th, 2023, with Bruce Boudreau behind the bench, the Canucks had lost six of their last seven games and sat in 26th in the NHL with 37 points at the halfway point of the season. This year’s team had 37 points by December 9th, only 28 games into the season. At the midway point of the season, this Vancouver Canucks team is showing striking similarities to one of the most memorable seasons in franchise history, the 2010-2011 season. Now, it might be a little insane to compare this team, whose core hasn’t made the playoff since the 2020 bubble, to a team that had three players who have since been inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame and the Canucks’ Ring of Honour, but stats wise, hear me out… Comparing the Team Stats All stats are through the first 41 games of the season. After the first 41 games of the season, this 2023-2024 Canucks team was second in the NHL with 57 points, one point behind the leading Winnipeg Jets. Based on points percentage, they ranked third with a .695%. Points percentage may be the more indicative stat to look at when evaluating teams’ success, as it shows how many points the team has earned based on the number of games they have played For example, the Edmonton Oilers ranked 20th in the league with 43 points but had only played 37 games. This looks much worse than it is because they actually ranked 12th in the league based on points percentage with a .581%. This Canucks team was first in goals for (160) and ranked fifth in goals against (107), leading to the best goal differential (+53) in the league. The 2010-2011 Canucks were first in the NHL with 60 points, with a one-point lead over the Detroit Red Wings at the 41-game mark. They had the most wins and regulation wins with a league-leading .732-point percentage. This team was second in the league in goals for (141) and third in goals against (99), leading to the best goal differential (+42) in the league again. One of the most impressive comparisons between these two teams is that each team leads the league in time spent with a lead. The 2010-2011 team spent 1106:39 minutes with the lead, 43:19 more minutes than any other team. The 2023-2024 team spent 1235:30 minutes with the lead, 175:53 more minutes than any other team. 2010-2011 time spent with the lead chart. 2023-2024 time spent with the lead chart . Teams with the lead will usually play more defensively to protect it. Due to this, the opposing teams will likely possess the puck and dominate the pace of play as they attempt to tie the game — leading to more scoring chances against (SCA.) This statement bodes true (kind of) for both the 2010-2011 team (512) and the 2023-2024 team (577), as both teams allowed the most SCA when holding the lead. I say ‘kind of’ because while yes, both teams allow the most SCA with the lead in the league, it seems that no lead was too big as they sit atop the league in offensive categories with the lead as well. 2010-2011 goals for with the lead chart. 2023-2024 goals for with the lead chart. The 2023-2024 Canucks team had the most scoring chances (SCF) (562), leading the Los Angeles Kings by 69, and also had the most goals for (GF) (83), 18 more than the Winnipeg Jets. The 2010-2011 Canucks team had the fourth-highest scoring chances (SCF) (427), trailing the San Jose Sharks by 37, and second in goals for (GF) (62), trailing only the Philadelphia Flyers by three. Comparing the Players’ Stats Forwards Let’s start at the top; the Sedin’s are just incomparable. The connection those two shared on the ice is something hockey fans won’t see again. Here’s a look at the 2010-2011 and 2023-2024 top seven forwards in scoring. Player Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Daniel Sedin 25 29 54 124 6 Henrik Sedin 9 45 54 78 10 Ryan Kesler 23 17 40 129 61 Mikael Samuelsson 8 16 24 112 41 Alex Burrows 8 14 22 65 30 Mason Raymond 8 13 21 78 11 Raffi Torres 11 8 19 63 54 Player Goals Assists Points Shots Hits J.T Miller 19 36 55 90 85 Elias Pettersson 20 33 53 113 44 Brock Boeser 25 19 44 113 18 Ilya Mikheyev 10 12 22 75 19 Conor Garland 5 15 20 89 30 Dakota Joshua 11 9 20 45 119 Andrei Kuzmenko 8 11 19 52 3 As you can see, there are some clear similarities. In both years, each team’s top two point-getters were nearly identical. Daniel and Henrik Sedin had 54 points, amounting to 108 points. 13 years later, J.T. Miller had 55 points, and Elias Pettersson had 53 points, amounting to 108 points. Each team’s leading goal scorer had 25 goals, with one more player with 20+ goals. While there are glaring similarities between J.T. Miller and Ryan Kesler that go beyond the stats, each era’s power forward stuck out with nearly the exact same stat lines. Raffi Torres and Dakota Joshua had 11 goals and eight assists, with Joshua (119) edging out Torres (54) in hits. The more bizarre comparison between these forwards is if you were to add up all the point totals from each year, the 2010-2011 forwards amount to 234 points. The 2023-2024 forwards amount to 233 points. (Eerily Sedinery and they are still part of this team) You can’t get much closer than one a point difference. Defencemen Player Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Alex Edler 4 21 25 92 66 Christian Ehrhoff 6 17 23 96 26 Kevin Bieksa 5 10 15 70 62 Dan Hamhuis 3 9 12 47 50 Player Goals Assists Points Shots Hits Quinn Hughes 11 40 51 100 14 Filip Hronek 3 31 34 83 31 Tyler Myers 3 15 18 43 47 Ian Cole 1 6 7 32 40 Here is where we see our biggest discrepancy: his name is Quinn Hughes. The 2023-2024 Quinn Hughes season is an outlier, as he’s on pace to shatter every single Canuck single-season defencemen record, which he set just last year. Making him impossible to compare to previous seasons. While the 2010-2011 top four defencemen heavily trail the 2023-2024 in points (by 35), as a group they lead in both shots (by 47) and hits (by 72). The only category in which these groups were remotely close was goals scored. Hughes leads the way with 11, five more than any other defenceman, but collectively, each group has 18 goals scored. Goaltenders Player Record Shutouts Goals Against Average Save Percentage Roberto Luongo 19-8-4 2 2.29 .912% Cory Schneider 8-0-2 0 2.27 .922% Player Wins Shutouts Goals Against Average Save Percentage Thatcher Demko 20-8-1 3 2.55 .916% Casey DeSmith 7-3-2 1 2.54 .914% The goaltenders are in the middle of the three positions; very comparable but not as close as some of the forwards. One thing to notice, which hasn’t been able true to say for the Canucks teams as of late, as it finally looks as though they’ve found confidence in their backup. The 2010-2011 tandem of Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider dominated the league that season, winning the William M. Jenning trophy. This trophy is awarded to the goalie duo who allowed the fewest amount of goals in the regular season. The starters in both seasons have similar records, with Thatcher Demko having one more win in fewer outings and splitting the goals against average and save percentage categories. Cory Schneider had the better goals against average and save percentage of the backup goalies, granted in two fewer games than Casey DeSmith. That 2010-2011 Vancouver Canucks squad is regarded around the hockey world as one of the best teams to not win the Stanley Cup. Watching the high-end talent at all three positions that season and actually being able to compare it to the product we’re seeing on the ice this season is nothing short of astonishing. Look, I understand that comparing this Canucks team to one of the best in franchise history is a tall task and probably too soon. There are still 38 regular season games until the playoffs and then three rounds after that to get to the level the 2010-2011 President’s trophy-winning team reached. But looking further into the trajectory that team was on and comparing it with what Canucks fans are seeing on the ice this season should get you excited and hopeful to see just how far this team could go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/12/2024 at 2:08 PM, Miss Korea said: Opposing goalies are literally averaging a .862 SV% against us But average save % has trended down in league. at one point last year, the league average was down below 900 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rip The Mesh Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The first team that came to mind as the opposite to us is Carolina - they play so well with control of the puck, have given up hardly any scoring chances or shots most games and just pepper the other net but rarely blow out teams the way we have. Whether that's luck or structure or what who knows, they have played this way for years. It looks dominant in games, even in the playoffs, but doesn't always translate to goals or wins. I remember watching us play them when we really sucked and we couldn't even get through the neutral zone, ended up with like 15 shots in the game. You'd think if you play that way for years and years you'd win Cups, but not necessarily. Meanwhile the Canucks are what, bottom-5 in shots for and give up a fair few shots each game. There's something to be said for the quality of these shots. The quality we give up are relatively low compared to in recent years - we box out the middle very well, "protect the guts of the ice" as Tocchet says, so those extra perimeter shots are nothing to worry about. I don't remember seeing us give up many odd man rushes this year and can probably count the number of breakaways on fingers, whereas last year no-joke we'd give up 2-3 rushes against each game and sometimes multiple breakaways in a game. On the flip side, our shooting is a lot better because our decision making is a lot better but again, opposite to defending - we're getting in prime positions to score and owning the middle of the ice. Our screens and net-front presence are great and we're taking high percentage shots, or rather - getting in position to make these shots. Boeser and Miller have been beasts in front of the net, even when they're not getting assists. Hughes and each of our stars draw so much attention to themselves that it often leaves another star relatively open. Garland, Bleuger and Joshua often steal pucks on the forecheck leading to high quality scoring chances where their defence is caught out of position. We don't always own the puck all game long and just shoot from everywhere, we're quite opportunistic but when we do own the puck we move it around to get in a good scoring chance rather than wasting it. First in GF/game and 2nd in GA/game in the league is certainly up there with the 2011 Canucks stats. They were obviously on another level but we're getting there... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain insano Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I have a theory on this “unsustainable PDO” Canucks have a system in place with elite scoring they are able to score early on in games then play a defensively sound games forcing teams to take low percentage shots well taking high risks trying to get back into games leaving Canucks with high % scoring chances …. To back my theory I got numbers what do you all think? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footsteps Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 re: sustainability of high PDO. Which teams have the lowest PDO, and how "sustainable" is that? Since, league-wide PDO is supposed to be 100, who's suffering while the Canucks thrive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Were going to see what this team is truly made of from here on our. 5th toughest schedule for the rest of season while edm, Vegas and LA have the 18th, 21st and 29th. I think they'll hold a divisional spot, but it's going to a be tough stretch to finish the year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 29 minutes ago, stawns said: Were going to see what this team is truly made of from here on our. 5th toughest schedule for the rest of season while edm, Vegas and LA have the 18th, 21st and 29th. I think they'll hold a divisional spot, but it's going to a be tough stretch to finish the year Injuries will determine the final spot, unless there's some miracle blockbuster trade to be made yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 33 minutes ago, stawns said: Were going to see what this team is truly made of from here on our. 5th toughest schedule for the rest of season while edm, Vegas and LA have the 18th, 21st and 29th. I think they'll hold a divisional spot, but it's going to a be tough stretch to finish the year Seems like every challenge placed in front of our club they’ve overcome and done really well. Their toughest stretches were November (played it evens) and the recent roady and the first couple back and they played those great. So IMHAO we will continue to play well and win our division. The smelly Soilers will fall. They stink bad. McWhiner Baby and Dryercycle will struggle down the stretch. The Coilers will make the playoffs but fail miserably in round one. McBaby will cry for a trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) On 1/17/2024 at 6:51 PM, Blue said: But average save % has trended down in league. at one point last year, the league average was down below 900 It's not even that, believe it or not - when good players shoot well, they score more goals! Tried to explain this to another poster using the 80's against Ovi's recent struggles to pass Gretzky. Maybe if you're great at picking corners, deking a goalie, or tips or whatever, you score more! And in this case, maybe it has a little to do with our system as well. To me, we have a great coach, and coaching staff, and a lot of players hitting their primes or already in them at the same time. As for the league average, it's really great to see a lot of good - amazing players in the league at one time again. The goalies certainly aren't getting worse. Edited January 24 by IBatch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.