The Russia/Ukraine War Thread

[SilentSam]

 

 

[Ghostsof1915]

1 minute ago, SilentSam said:

Just an FYI :

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russian Admirals: Hey Ivan, do we have naval ships and tankers that can go that far?

[Ghostsof1915]

6 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

FYI :

 

 

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida @kishida230 and I have just signed a security agreement between Ukraine and Japan. A unique document with one of the world’s most economically and technologically advanced countries. 

In 2024, Japan will provide Ukraine with $4.5 billion and will continue to support us throughout the agreement’s entire 10-year term. This includes security and defense assistance, humanitarian aid, technical and financial cooperation, as well as joint efforts on the Peace Formula. Additionally, the agreement implies sanctions against the aggressor and efforts to hold the aggressor accountable. We also greatly appreciate that Japan will cooperate with Ukraine in reconstruction and recovery.

For Japan, this type of agreement and this level of support is a breakthrough. We see this and thank Japan for its unwavering solidarity with our country and people, as well as for its dedication to protecting life and international law.

 

 

 

 

 

Next thing you know Japan will build a new Yamato.

[SilentSam]

FYI :

 

 

 

 

 

[Boudrias]

20 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

FYI :

 

 

 

 

 

My tinfoil hat morning Sam. Do you think the Americans offered China parts of Siberia and even N. Korea in exchange for Taiwan? Clearly the Russian military was more than a paper tiger than most pundits thought. Or were they? Multiple statements by NATO exchange members who viewed Russian military exercises. Comments were how bad the Russian military units looked and performed. Was the paper tiger status well known and played to advantage by the USA? The

war in Ukraine was/is a clear demonstration of how far the Russian machine has deteriorated. 

 

If the reverse is true and the Chinese feel that Russia can win in Ukraine the question becomes how invested do they want to become to make sure that happens. It appears many countries are getting their ducks in a row as they anticipate the almost inevitable regime change in Moscow. European Russia will be absorbed into the EU after a Putin collapse.

 

China spends billions of $'s globally to ensure their resource supplies. If China takes parts of Siberia much of that problem goes away. Add a bonus of having N.  Korea absorbed by China and the unstable flank is removed. China needs investment dollars and S. Korea and Japan have those $'s and investment expertise.

China absorbed HongKong with poor results. Absorbing Taiwan would likely be a repeat with the potential of destabilizing the Chinese mainland. 

 

Enough said, I remove the hat.

  

[Gurn]

1 hour ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

I've said this for years. If China wanted some new territory, just invade North Korea. North Korea wouldn't see it coming. China invades, takes North Korea over.

It's leader vanishes never to be seen again. (Pumpkinhead will cry he lost an ally) Then China puts in a puppet government they can control. The funny part is the living standards in North Korea would be better under Chinese rule, then under its own. But boy, would South Korea be even more nervous than before.

China would be a great neighbour to South Korea----- for a few years.

Then they would start supporting various fringe political parties in S.K..

And dropping large sums of money into  purchasing Korean companies- and Korean politicians.30 years after taking North korea, they would be set to try the South Korean takeover.

 

China seems to be one of the very few nations doing, really long term, planning.

 

[DSVII]

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

My tinfoil hat morning Sam. Do you think the Americans offered China parts of Siberia and even N. Korea in exchange for Taiwan? Clearly the Russian military was more than a paper tiger than most pundits thought. Or were they? Multiple statements by NATO exchange members who viewed Russian military exercises. Comments were how bad the Russian military units looked and performed. Was the paper tiger status well known and played to advantage by the USA? The

war in Ukraine was/is a clear demonstration of how far the Russian machine has deteriorated. 
 

If the reverse is true and the Chinese feel that Russia can win in Ukraine the question becomes how invested do they want to become to make sure that happens. It appears many countries are getting their ducks in a row as they anticipate the almost inevitable regime change in Moscow. European Russia will be absorbed into the EU after a Putin collapse.

 

China spends billions of $'s globally to ensure their resource supplies. If China takes parts of Siberia much of that problem goes away. Add a bonus of having N.  Korea absorbed by China and the unstable flank is removed. China needs investment dollars and S. Korea and Japan have those $'s and investment expertise.

China absorbed HongKong with poor results. Absorbing Taiwan would likely be a repeat with the potential of destabilizing the Chinese mainland. 

 

Enough said, I remove the hat.

  

 

Just speaking from my casual understanding of Geopolitics, but China already considers N.Korea a tributary state and all of its history has been getting its neighbours to either become tributaries or vassals like the emperors of old. Putin, with his strategic blunder of invading Ukraine has already tied Russia to China as an  unequal economic partner, almost an economic vassal now, so I would not be surprised if China has already worked some deals with Russia for favorable economic access to Siberia as a result of supplying his armies. At least with Putin, you know that he is in your pocket, why make a deal with the USA?

 

And as long as Taiwan is defiant and potential staging point for US based weapons and troops, it'll be seen as a threat to the Party's power and legitimacy.

 

It represents a much more valuable strategic asset than Siberia, not to mention the initial investment you have to make into Siberia to extract all those resources. China won't make that trade.

 

China, like Russia, ultimately knows that the War in Ukraine will be won by Russia politically, not militarily. Russia just has to maintain standing forces in the field until the results of November 2024 are known or the democractic west becomes too weary of war to support it. If there's anything China has, it's patience. Their planning and goals stretch decades, whereas the US seems to go Schizo every 4 years. They're banking on Trump winning and pulling America back from it's international obligations and maintaining the global institutions it set up post WW2.

 

Right now the economist has Trump with a 2 in 3 chance of winning. This would not surprise me to see the US pull back and Ukraine either being forced to compromise or they enter another decades long frozen conflict. China would love nothing more than a Trump presidency. As Trump will just pull America back from its foreign commitments and alienate its European allies, while ceding economic and political leadership on the global stage to China.

 

China's focus for the future would be labor, which Siberia does not provide. With the recent boom in the middle class in China and the aging of the population, we'll probably see a bigger shift towards a service economy than a manufacturing one, which is why they've invested so much into the Road and Beltway initiative and developing industries and ports in Africa and the Middle East, which is due to have the highest population increase rates and largest youth workforce in the coming decades. 

 

This demographic age cliff is probably another reason why China is so aggressive with Taiwan now, with the population aging out this quick, they may feel their pool of available men of military age will be too small in the future to sustain any war with Taiwan, they may see their chance to take the islands coming in the next decade or two.

 

Edited June 13 by DSVII

[Honky Cat]

 

[Honky Cat]

 

[Honky Cat]

 

[SilentSam]

This is a massive blow ,. not much security in RuZ.

 

 

 

 

 

[SilentSam]

 

[SilentSam]

 

 

[SilentSam]

This makes too much sense ..

 

can we not go without everything RuZ has to offer ?

 

Checking RuZ ‘s merchant marine may bring us to that .

 

 

 

 

[SilentSam]

The realization that Putin considers his front lines to be the new borders of RuZ Territory,.     No wonder he just throws human life at it .

This sub human needs to be evicted from the planet.

 

 

 

 

[SilentSam]

..  and of course ,  his existential threat..

 

…and at some point ,  I do think he will use a nuclear weapon.

 

The returned response will be overwhelming..  and catastrophic to RuZ.

 

Cut the head off this Snake soon .

 

 

 

 

[Warhippy]

29 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

..  and of course ,  his existential threat..

 

…and at some point ,  I do think he will use a nuclear weapon.

 

The returned response will be overwhelming..  and catastrophic to RuZ.

 

Cut the head off this Snake soon .

 

 

 

 

Counter offer.

 

Pack your shit up and go home and await the inevitable take over by China either militarily or economically 

[SilentSam]

Innovation..   

 

I would think these “charges” could be loaded with an array of different types of defensive,  or even perhaps offensive.

 

ball bearings , clusters ,   Used for closer combat .

 

 

 

[Boudrias]

53 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

..  and of course ,  his existential threat..

 

…and at some point ,  I do think he will use a nuclear weapon.

 

The returned response will be overwhelming..  and catastrophic to RuZ.

 

Cut the head off this Snake soon .

 

 

 

 

At one point I thought there were enough Russians who would stop Putin somehow. Maybe they have all fallen from high places. When Russia first invaded Ukraine there were special squads that had lists of Ukrainians they wanted to arrest/interrogate. One has to assume the same exists inside Russia. Do we give up on the idea that some form of resistance exists inside Russia that will ultimately rid themselves of Putin and his gang. Perhaps the idea is a wishful thinking fantasy. It is not a question of simply removing Putin or even killing him. There are many Putins inside Russia society. It does not appear that change will happen without serious long term restructuring inside Russia. 

 

Russians play the nuclear arms threat because it has worked so well for them over many years. Would those capable of using those weapons actually do so? Why would they unless they were faced with physical violence or a threat to their existence? NATO is becoming more involved with Ukraine but Russian hopes that genie can be rebottled is a losing one. Can Russia accept Ukraine as part of NATO and a EU member? Can Putin extradite Russia from Ukraine and still retain his position? For the reason above he can likely survive. If that is the vision then he won't use nukes. Ukraine recovers the pre-2014 boundaries then what? Crimea recovered, then what? 

[AatuD2]

 

[SilentSam]

22 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

At one point I thought there were enough Russians who would stop Putin somehow. Maybe they have all fallen from high places. When Russia first invaded Ukraine there were special squads that had lists of Ukrainians they wanted to arrest/interrogate. One has to assume the same exists inside Russia. Do we give up on the idea that some form of resistance exists inside Russia that will ultimately rid themselves of Putin and his gang. Perhaps the idea is a wishful thinking fantasy. It is not a question of simply removing Putin or even killing him. There are many Putins inside Russia society. It does not appear that change will happen without serious long term restructuring inside Russia. 

 

Russians play the nuclear arms threat because it has worked so well for them over many years. Would those capable of using those weapons actually do so? Why would they unless they were faced with physical violence or a threat to their existence? NATO is becoming more involved with Ukraine but Russian hopes that genie can be rebottled is a losing one. Can Russia accept Ukraine as part of NATO and a EU member? Can Putin extradite Russia from Ukraine and still retain his position? For the reason above he can likely survive. If that is the vision then he won't use nukes. Ukraine recovers the pre-2014 boundaries then what? Crimea recovered, then what? 

Putin is Killed by his own and The west continues the sanctions until RuZ collapses, and a clear rise of real Freedom and Democracy rises…

or China will just forcefully take.… but I think that will create bigger problems for China.

[Sharpshooter]

4 hours ago, Boudrias said:

At one point I thought there were enough Russians who would stop Putin somehow. Maybe they have all fallen from high places. When Russia first invaded Ukraine there were special squads that had lists of Ukrainians they wanted to arrest/interrogate. One has to assume the same exists inside Russia. Do we give up on the idea that some form of resistance exists inside Russia that will ultimately rid themselves of Putin and his gang. Perhaps the idea is a wishful thinking fantasy. It is not a question of simply removing Putin or even killing him. There are many Putins inside Russia society. It does not appear that change will happen without serious long term restructuring inside Russia. 

 

Russians play the nuclear arms threat because it has worked so well for them over many years. Would those capable of using those weapons actually do so? Why would they unless they were faced with physical violence or a threat to their existence? NATO is becoming more involved with Ukraine but Russian hopes that genie can be rebottled is a losing one. Can Russia accept Ukraine as part of NATO and a EU member? Can Putin extradite Russia from Ukraine and still retain his position? For the reason above he can likely survive. If that is the vision then he won't use nukes. Ukraine recovers the pre-2014 boundaries then what? Crimea recovered, then what? 

I would hope that with the sophisticated technology of NATO/Intelligence Services, the understanding of where Russia’s nuclear armaments are located, that NATO, and aligned countries, dispatched them in a unified single strike. 
 

Just a thought/opinion/hope. 

[The Lock]

7 hours ago, SilentSam said:

The realization that Putin considers his front lines to be the new borders of RuZ Territory,.     No wonder he just throws human life at it .

This sub human needs to be evicted from the planet.

 

 

It's not even just the front lines that he's considering the borders as. Kherson, Zaporizhizhia, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk are all cities he's "expecting" to receive that he doesn't even have control over. To add perspective, ALL of those are bigger than Bakhmut. Kherson he had to abandon and would literally need to attack with an amphibious assault.

 

Zaporizhzhia alone is laughable in itself as he'd probably need his entire army, abandoning the rest of the front lines, just to even have a hope of claiming it.

Edited June 15 by The Lock

[PistolPete13]

On 6/14/2024 at 11:50 AM, AatuD2 said:

 

Thanks for posting. The closest distance between Russia and Alaska is 55 miles. How many warships and planes do you think Russia has up in the Artic? That would be the threat to be of more concern than this little Caribbean display. 

 

Edited June 15 by PistolPete13

[Muscatel Marauder]