The Russia/Ukraine War Thread

[JIAHN]

So this morning, I am focused on China

 

I ask myself, what does China gain by aiding Russia

 

Some say raw resources, which would be true

 

But then the question comes, what will they do with those raw resources?

 

If in fact Russia was to win, and continue their expansion

 

Then the west, would have to respond. By doing so, the west goes into war mode

 

and purchases of Chinese goods goes down. This all at a time, China is experiencing their own form of depression

 

I see no benefit to China, short term or long term.

 

However, If the west wins and Russia becomes weaker, then China benefits, with cheaper resources, and access to the west,

 

who, because of Russia's quicker loss, has not lost their ability to purchase Chinese goods.

 

My secondary question is exactly how many goods can the Russian people buy from China in the short and long term, in their present economic state?

 

 

My question to you all is...........which is more important to the Chinese? Economics with the West or the Political relationship with Russia?

 

 

[SilentSam]

Starting to stack up ..

 

 

 

 

 

[MattJVD]

10 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

Beautiful !

 

 

 

Welcome onto the fold, Serbia! If they are ready to move to become more European alligned, I hope we welcome them with open arms. I know there is a lot of (recent) bloody history between us, but the war crimes trails have concluded. If Serbia wants to make a new chapter in their history, good on them.

 

I know this is heavily influence by selection bias (the only Serbs I know are those who wanted no part in the wars and fled to Canada in the 90s) but they all wish for better Serbian/European (and Canadian) relations to more easily visit family. 

 

This was years ago but a family friend was arrested returning to Serbia to visit his aunts and Uncles because he dodged the draft in the 90s to come to Canada. Fortunately he was released shortly afterwards and was able to return to Canada. It would be wondeful for people like him to travel freely.

[SilentSam]

Inside Lithuania :

 

 

 

 

 

[SilentSam]

 

 

[JIAHN]

14 hours ago, JIAHN said:

@ArmchairGM22

 

Something to chew on...............

 

Contents

 hide

• (Top)
• Results
  Toggle Results subsection
  • By region
• See also
• References

1991 Ukrainian independence referendum

 

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

1991 Ukrainian independence referendum

1 December 1991
Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?
The result of the referendum in a bulletin.
Results
Choice Votes %  Yes 28,804,071 92.26%  No 2,417,554 7.74% Valid votes 31,221,625 97.90% Invalid or blank votes 670,117 2.10% Total votes 31,891,742 100.00% Registered voters/turnout 37,885,555 84.18%
Results by region Yes:   50–60%   80–85%   85–90%   90–95%   95–100%

A referendum on the Act of Declaration of Independence was held in Ukraine on 1 December 1991.^[1] An overwhelming majority of 92% of voters approved the declaration of independence made by the Verkhovna Rada on 24 August 1991.

Voters were asked "Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?"^[2] The text of the Declaration was included as a preamble to the question. The referendum was called by the Parliament of Ukraine to confirm the Act of Independence, which was adopted by the Parliament on 24 August 1991.^[3] Citizens of Ukraine expressed overwhelming support for independence. In the referendum, 31,891,742 registered voters (or 84.18% of the electorate) took part, and among them 28,804,071 (or 92.3%) voted "Yes".^[2]

On the same day, a presidential election took place. In the month up to the presidential election, all six candidates campaigned across Ukraine in favour of independence from the Soviet Union, and a "Yes" vote in the referendum. Leonid Kravchuk, the parliament chairman and de facto head of state, was elected to serve as the first President of Ukraine.^[4]

From 2 December 1991 onwards, Ukraine was globally recognized by other countries as an independent state.^[5][6][7] Also on 2 December, the President of the Russian SFSR Boris Yeltsin recognized Ukraine as independent.^{[8][9][10][11]} In a telegram of congratulations Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev sent to Kravchuk soon after the referendum, Gorbachev included his hopes for close Ukrainian cooperation and understanding in "the formation of a union of sovereign states".^[12]

Ukraine was the second-most powerful republic in the Soviet Union both economically and politically (behind Russia), and its secession ended any realistic chance of Gorbachev keeping the USSR together. By December 1991 all former Soviet Republics except the RSFSR^[13] and the Kazakh SSR^[13] had formally seceded from the Union.^[14] A week after his election, Kravchuk joined with Yeltsin and Belarusian leader Stanislav Shushkevich in signing the Belavezha Accords, which declared that the Soviet Union had ceased to exist.^[15] The USSR officially dissolved on 26 December.^[16]

Results[edit]

The ballot paper used in the referendum, with the text of the Declaration of Independence printed on it. No-vote in % per Ukrainian Oblast

Ukrainian media had converted en masse to the independence ideal.

Polls showed 63% support for the "Yes" campaign in September 1991; that grew to 77% in the first week of October 1991 and 88% by mid-November 1991.^[17]

55% of the ethnic Russians in Ukraine voted for independence.^[18]

Choice		Votes	%
For		28,804,071	92.26
Against		2,417,554	7.74
Total		31,221,625	100.00
Valid votes		31,221,625	97.90
Invalid/blank votes		670,117	2.10
Total votes		31,891,742	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		37,885,555	84.18
Source: Nohlen & Stöver

By region[edit]

 

The Act of Independence was supported by a majority of participating voters in each of the 27 administrative regions of Ukraine: 24 oblasts, 1 autonomous republic, and 2 special municipalities (Kyiv City and Sevastopol City).^[4] Voter turnout was lowest in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.^[17] The six regions with the lowest percentage of "yes" votes were Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa Oblasts, Crimea, and Sevastopol; all of those regions still had a majority of registered voters marking their ballots "yes", except for Crimea and Sevastopol.

Subdivision	Percentage voting for independence
	Of votes cast[4]	Of electorate[19]
Crimean ASSR	54.19	37[20]
Cherkasy Oblast	96.03	87
Chernihiv Oblast	93.74	85
Chernivtsi Oblast	92.78	81
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast	90.36	74
Donetsk Oblast	83.90	64
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast	98.42	94
Kharkiv Oblast	86.33	65
Kherson Oblast	90.13	75
Khmelnytskyi Oblast	96.30	90
Kyiv Oblast	95.52	84
Kirovohrad Oblast	93.88	83
Luhansk Oblast	83.86	68
Lviv Oblast	97.46	93
Mykolayiv Oblast	89.45	75
Odesa Oblast	85.38	64
Poltava Oblast	94.93	87
Rivne Oblast	95.96	89
Sumy Oblast	92.61	82
Ternopil Oblast	98.67	96
Vinnytsia Oblast	95.43	87
Volyn Oblast	96.32	90
Zakarpattia Oblast	92.59	77
Zaporizhzhia Oblast	90.66	73
Zhytomyr Oblast	95.06	86
Kyiv City	92.87	75
Sevastopol City	57.07	36[20]
National Total	90.32	76[21]

 

I apologize for re-quoting this, but I actually missed something very important, buried in the data........

 

Here it is.........

 

55% of the ethnic Russians in Ukraine voted for independence.^[18]

 

^{Even the majority of Russians did not want to go back!}

 

 

[DSVII]

2 hours ago, JIAHN said:

So this morning, I am focused on China

 

I ask myself, what does China gain by aiding Russia

 

Some say raw resources, which would be true

 

But then the question comes, what will they do with those raw resources?

 

If in fact Russia was to win, and continue their expansion

 

Then the west, would have to respond. By doing so, the west goes into war mode

 

and purchases of Chinese goods goes down. This all at a time, China is experiencing their own form of depression

 

I see no benefit to China, short term or long term.

 

However, If the west wins and Russia becomes weaker, then China benefits, with cheaper resources, and access to the west,

 

who, because of Russia's quicker loss, has not lost their ability to purchase Chinese goods.

 

My secondary question is exactly how many goods can the Russian people buy from China in the short and long term, in their present economic state?

 

 

My question to you all is...........which is more important to the Chinese? Economics with the West or the Political relationship with Russia?

 

 

 

If Russia wins it means several things

 

•  Wars of territorial aggression are now on the menu (Taiwan), as it is proven that Western democracies do not have the will or stomach for long term conflict.

 

• I don't see a way for Russia to win militarily in Ukraine, for me a victory for Russia implies a political victory for Putin in the Western Democracies, which means most likely a Trump presidency. As we saw with the last presidency, Trump's tariff wars gave China inroads into expanding their commercial and trading influence in south-east Asia without materially harming their economy. China will look to this as an advantage as America pulls back from international commitments and plans that seeked to contain China, I can expect future growth and expansion into Africa via the Road and Belt initiative, which will extend extensively into Siberia and Russia/Eurasia as the dependency of Russia on China to deliver on logistics increases, this gives China access to those territories with minimal effort.

 

• A Trump presidency also means that more US secrets are on the menu, possibly in exchange between Russia/China's alliance. China would most particularly be interested in any key information relating to US deployments / weapons in the Pacific

 

• Trump's economic policies of slapping Tariffs on Chinese goods gives them the opportunity to open trade/manufacturing alliances with its neighbors (i.e construct 95% of a product in China, ship it to Vietnam and finish it, then sell to US) 

 

• China gains by having Russia exist as an entity in geopolitics, it divides America's attention and say what you will about Russia, but their misinformation campaigns are top notch in this new era of hybrid warfare. The more chaos and division sown in the West, the better it is for China to consolidate. Get a bunch of isolationist 'America/Europe first' hard right parties elected in NA and EU? Suddenly there's less political will to support peripheral issues like Taiwan and the Uyghurs. Keeping Russia in the war by all means is very productive for China, not to mention the longer and deeper into the war Russia goes, the more dependent the relationship is for them. China can essentially exert influence across the whole of Eurasia with Russia in its back pocket.

 

• The war also gives Chinese strategists free battlefield data on the performance of Western NATO equipment on Russian armies and may give them insight into their own forces capabilities and how to improve, especially in this era of drone warfare.

 

• China and Russia's ultimate end goal is to deconstruct all the post-WW2 geopolitical order where America is top dog, in a multi-polar world they envision, you need actors like Russia to exist as a counter weight.

 

• It gives China political and diplomatic soft power and leverage if it is seen as the sane party in this Sino-Russian arrangement. "We got this dictator threatening to nuke everyone everyday? I'll reign him in, but it won't be for free."

Edited June 24 by DSVII

[SilentSam]

 

 

[SilentSam]

3 hours ago, JIAHN said:

So this morning, I am focused on China

 

I ask myself, what does China gain by aiding Russia

 

Some say raw resources, which would be true

 

But then the question comes, what will they do with those raw resources?

 

If in fact Russia was to win, and continue their expansion

 

Then the west, would have to respond. By doing so, the west goes into war mode

 

and purchases of Chinese goods goes down. This all at a time, China is experiencing their own form of depression

 

I see no benefit to China, short term or long term.

 

However, If the west wins and Russia becomes weaker, then China benefits, with cheaper resources, and access to the west,

 

who, because of Russia's quicker loss, has not lost their ability to purchase Chinese goods.

 

My secondary question is exactly how many goods can the Russian people buy from China in the short and long term, in their present economic state?

 

 

My question to you all is...........which is more important to the Chinese? Economics with the West or the Political relationship with Russia?

 

 

unless China wants the task of trying to rebuild RuZ after this War ,  they value their economic viability with the West more.

 

Something they need to thoroughly think about.

 

Sanctions would also effect them for 5-10 years.

[SilentSam]

To add to an earlier post about re-engineered Neptune missiles

 

 

 

 

[SilentSam]

 

 

[SilentSam]

 

[Warhippy]

53 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

To add to an earlier post about re-engineered Neptune missiles

 

 

 

 

Enough waiting.

 

Do it

[DSVII]

Next time one of those accounts come back, hit em with this

Edited June 24 by DSVII

[SilentSam]

just an FYI :

Don’t know if there is any alternate motive for this to happen..

 

interesting.

 

J Assange released/ plea  deal with US. / Biden 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/24/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal-biden-administration/index.html

Edited June 25 by SilentSam

[SilentSam]

High Spirits !!!

 

 

 

[SilentSam]

Again ,  incredible ingenuity from UKR :

 

 

 

 

 

[Muscatel Marauder]

 

[SilentSam]

 

 

[SilentSam]

 

 

[SilentSam]

 

 

[SilentSam]

 

 

[SilentSam]

Might be why there trying to curb EU news in RuZ.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 25 by SilentSam

[Muscatel Marauder]

 

[SilentSam]