The Russia/Ukraine War Thread

[Boudrias]

13 hours ago, Gurn said:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/biden-warns-of-potential-russian-attack-on-poland/ar-AA1il9y6?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=7672565d5ab246729637498e75652e02&ei=41

"

President Joe Biden has issued a stark warning that Poland could be Russia's next target if the United States ceases its aid to Ukraine.

During an appearance on CBS's "60 Minutes," Biden emphasized that halting support for Ukraine could trigger a chain of events leading to a conflict between Russia, NATO, and the United States.

In the interview, Biden was explicit about the risks involved if the U.S. withdraws its support for Ukraine.

"Let's imagine what will happen. Let's say we stop, Russia will occupy Ukraine and enter Poland or Belarus. We are then at war. We, the United States, are at war," Biden cautioned. His comments come amid increasing resistance in Congress to continue aiding Ukraine.

The President did not mince words when he said that Russia's entry into Poland would signify the beginning of a war between Russia and NATO, including the United States. This is a scenario that the Kremlin has been hinting at for some time, including mentions of a potential attack on Poland and even the "destruction of Warsaw in a few minutes."

During the same interview, Biden assured that the U.S. government would continue to provide parallel support for both Ukraine and Israel. Currently, Israel has received two aircraft carriers from the U.S. and may soon launch a land invasion of the Gaza Strip.

Biden also touched upon the possibility of the United States being drawn into another conflict, this time with China. While the focus remains on Russia and Ukraine, the President indicated that the U.S. must be prepared for multiple challenges on the global stage.

The President's warning serves as a sobering reminder of the high stakes involved in the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and how the U.S.'s role in the conflict could have far-reaching implications.

 

As the war progresses in Ukraine the question of how well led and equipped Russian troops are is regularly brought into the discussion. With better equipment the AFU would likely reach the Azov Sea and deal the Russians a massive defeat. Regular press questions whether Putin can survive ongoing military stalemate let alone tactical defeats. 

 

It appears that Biden's comments about a Russian military threat to Poland is an attempt to galvanize American support for Ukraine. How, by any stretch, would the Russians think they could attack Poland with success? That would mean a NATO conflict which is just not going to happen.  

[Calamity K]

13 hours ago, Alflives said:

Biden is exactly who the world needs as POTUS right now. 

Yes, gimme more of that chaos. Can't get enough of it.

[Yoshiyoshi]

22 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

As the war progresses in Ukraine the question of how well led and equipped Russian troops are is regularly brought into the discussion. With better equipment the AFU would likely reach the Azov Sea and deal the Russians a massive defeat. Regular press questions whether Putin can survive ongoing military stalemate let alone tactical defeats. 

 

It appears that Biden's comments about a Russian military threat to Poland is an attempt to galvanize American support for Ukraine. How, by any stretch, would the Russians think they could attack Poland with success? That would mean a NATO conflict which is just not going to happen.  

The Russians think they can fight all of NATO and win. If support stopped to Ukraine Russia could win there just through numbers once they run out of ammo/artillery, etc. If they attack Poland they will be fighting the same way and even if they cant win a fight like that they can do a lot of damage and kill a lot of people.

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, Yoshiyoshi said:

The Russians think they can fight all of NATO and win. If support stopped to Ukraine Russia could win there just through numbers once they run out of ammo/artillery, etc. If they attack Poland they will be fighting the same way and even if they cant win a fight like that they can do a lot of damage and kill a lot of people.

Russia does not outnumber NATO like they do Ukraine. Attacking Poland would be a end of their regime. They know it and NATO knows it. If nothing else Ukraine has shown the many weaknesses in the Russian military. American complaints of having to carry the bulk of the money and weapons to keep Ukraine afloat is valid IMHO. The Euros should be doing much more even tho they have upped their support. Still not enough. Sadly the attack on Israel could be a deflection gambit cooked up by Russia and Iran. 

 

Not withstanding all of this the bottom line is that NATO countries and Ukraine are amping up their military weapons production. That does not bode well for Russia or for Iran. I suspect USA and Israel are targeting Iranian weapons sites in prep for a pre-emptive strike. Ukraine might be more than a bystander in such an event since Iran is a major supplier of drones and who knows what else. 

 

I suspect if Russia could withdraw from Ukraine they would except for the fear of Putin losing face. However they did pull out of Afganistan so maybe there is hope. Just as the west and Ukraine feared the attack of Russian armor on frozen ground now that situation is reversed. Ukraine has more tanks that can move on the same frozen ground. They'll do that while Russian soldiers freeze in their trenches. When I hear western media and Ukrainian press talk about a static line thru the winter I don't believe much of it. IMHOP there will be a winter offensive by the AFU. We will see the Ukrainian airforce use newly supplied aircraft in that offensive.   

[The Lock]

2 hours ago, Yoshiyoshi said:

The Russians think they can fight all of NATO and win. If support stopped to Ukraine Russia could win there just through numbers once they run out of ammo/artillery, etc. If they attack Poland they will be fighting the same way and even if they cant win a fight like that they can do a lot of damage and kill a lot of people.

 

The Russians want the public to think they can fight all of NATO and win. It's a posture. It doesn't actually mean they believe that internally.

[Yoshiyoshi]

16 minutes ago, The Lock said:

 

The Russians want the public to think they can fight all of NATO and win. It's a posture. It doesn't actually mean they believe that internally.

I think that they think they can. Not in a straight up fight, but I think they believe they can outlast public support and accomplish some of their objectives. Invading Russia would be a nightmare for NATO and as long as that isnt a viable option I believe that they think they can fight limited wars and then make peace with their small gains. They think their nuclear weapons will protect them from retribution and so long as its just soldiers dying in Russia they consider it a win. Look at Israel right now, people immediately started calling for a diplomatic solution rather than warfare, look at how many people have spoken up for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. There are lots of people willing to sell out others in the name of peace rather than fight a just war. Russia is skilled at convincing people to support their goals through propaganda and political divisions, it is fortunate that their armed forces dont have near the same level of skill and talent.

[The Lock]

18 minutes ago, Yoshiyoshi said:

I think that they think they can. Not in a straight up fight, but I think they believe they can outlast public support and accomplish some of their objectives. Invading Russia would be a nightmare for NATO and as long as that isnt a viable option I believe that they think they can fight limited wars and then make peace with their small gains. They think their nuclear weapons will protect them from retribution and so long as its just soldiers dying in Russia they consider it a win. Look at Israel right now, people immediately started calling for a diplomatic solution rather than warfare, look at how many people have spoken up for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. There are lots of people willing to sell out others in the name of peace rather than fight a just war. Russia is skilled at convincing people to support their goals through propaganda and political divisions, it is fortunate that their armed forces dont have near the same level of skill and talent.

 

We're probably going to have to agree to disagree on some of this. You just have to look at how the Ukraine war came about to see Russia's not completely foolish and as "bull-headed" as you seem to want to imply (ironically enough).

 

Putin started the war because he was given false information that Ukrainians would be supportive of him taking control of the country. He was also lied to from corrupt people pocketing the money they were given instead of using that money to undermine other countries like Ukraine. There's a lot of misinformation reportedly that led to the actual attack Feb of last year. Sure, they could still be argued as being foolish for believing the information they were given internally, but they fact that they based their decision on such information and likely wouldn't have done so otherwise... that screams more basing things on misinformation rather than being foolish. And, with this, we're talking about Ukraine, a non-aligned state. If they were this "cautious" with Ukraine, they're clearly NOT going to be the same with Poland as you imply.

 

Their nuclear weapons are, again, a posture. It's a measure to cast fear to others. If they actually used the nukes, they know their own populace would be at a risk. The people calling for these diplomatic solutions are the ones who are affected by this fear-mongering. I would also argue that the Israel situation is a very different situation from Ukraine and I don't see how it would be a good comparison when it comes to diplomacy. Hamas is not Russia (even though it's arguably backed by Russia presumably). Israel is not Ukraine. Also, the Israeli-Palestine war has gone on for much much longer than the Ukraine war if we are to look at things at face value.

 

You talk about propaganda. Sure, Russia's performed a lot of propaganda, but who's really winning the propaganda war in Ukraine? It's the Ukraine side winning that war; therefore, I'd also argue the effectiveness of Russia's propaganda. I'm sure they are good in some places, but they have clearly lost the propaganda war when it comes to Ukraine.

Edited October 18, 2023 by The Lock

[Boudrias]

6 minutes ago, Yoshiyoshi said:

I think that they think they can. Not in a straight up fight, but I think they believe they can outlast public support and accomplish some of their objectives. Invading Russia would be a nightmare for NATO and as long as that isnt a viable option I believe that they think they can fight limited wars and then make peace with their small gains. They think their nuclear weapons will protect them from retribution and so long as its just soldiers dying in Russia they consider it a win. Look at Israel right now, people immediately started calling for a diplomatic solution rather than warfare, look at how many people have spoken up for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine. There are lots of people willing to sell out others in the name of peace rather than fight a just war. Russia is skilled at convincing people to support their goals through propaganda and political divisions, it is fortunate that their armed forces dont have near the same level of skill and talent.

It wasn't that long ago that Russian farmers couldn't get any diesel fuel for their tractors. While I haven't heard any further on this it is an indication of the internal stress the Russian economy is in. Remember when the private army guy Podkolzen (?) led his army within 100 miles of Moscow. His troops were met with open arms and he had no opposition when he took over Rostov. Russian leadership are heavy on BS and like to kill their opponents. It will keep the masses subservient until it doesn't. I am frankly surprised that more military leaders aren't shot by their own troops. 

[Yoshiyoshi]

Just now, Boudrias said:

It wasn't that long ago that Russian farmers couldn't get any diesel fuel for their tractors. While I haven't heard any further on this it is an indication of the internal stress the Russian economy is in. Remember when the private army guy Podkolzen (?) led his army within 100 miles of Moscow. His troops were met with open arms and he had no opposition when he took over Rostov. Russian leadership are heavy on BS and like to kill their opponents. It will keep the masses subservient until it doesn't. I am frankly surprised that more military leaders aren't shot by their own troops. 

Honestly if more of their troops shot their leaders, i would be less worried about an attack on Poland. The fact that they dont is what makes me think it could happen.

[The Lock]

3 minutes ago, Yoshiyoshi said:

Honestly if more of their troops shot their leaders, i would be less worried about an attack on Poland. The fact that they dont is what makes me think it could happen.

 

I don't understand how "troops not shooting their leaders" leads to "attack Poland". It seems like there's a lot of dots to connect from point A to point B here and likely a lot of assumptions along the way.

Edited October 18, 2023 by The Lock

[Yoshiyoshi]

Just now, The Lock said:

 

I don't understand how "troops not shooting their leaders" leads to "attack Poland". It seems like there's a lot of dots to connect from point A to point B here and likely a lot of assumptions along the way.

It shows a lack of willingness to not follow stupid and suicidal instructions as well as endure abuse from their own side.

[The Lock]

1 minute ago, Yoshiyoshi said:

It shows a lack of willingness to not follow stupid and suicidal instructions as well as endure abuse from their own side.

 

Okay... so how does that lead to attacking Poland though?

[Yoshiyoshi]

Just now, The Lock said:

 

Okay... so how does that lead to attacking Poland though?

it doesnt, it leads to soldiers following the order to attack even if its completely stupid. The first time I heard anyone mention Russia attacking Poland I thought it was ridiculous and they would get slaughtered. But the past few months there has been a waning of support for Ukraine and Russian propaganda seemed to be having some success that it didnt have up until that point. That has me concerned that Russia will take that as a sign they can win the endurance game and outlast NATO support for Ukraine. An expanded war seems retarded from my point of view and I cant think of any way that will benefit Russia but I also know I am incapable of understanding Russian logic or the thought processes of people calling for a negotiated settlement for the war. There could be a way that Russia sees benefits to a larger war, maybe by making support decline faster or something? I dont know and as such cant just dismiss it because it seems illogical, im terrible at understanding human behavior.

[Boudrias]

Just now, The Lock said:

 

Okay... so how does that lead to attacking Poland though?

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't Poland have the largest army in Europe? Very mechanized land forces with over 1000 tanks and 164,000 serving members. Their spend on their military is now set at 3% of GDP. Enlistment will hit 300,000 by 2035. What they have is mostly NATO level quality which includes a lot of tech. Russia won't be attacking Poland. 
 

Earlier I mention Russian soldiers shooting their superiors as they were thrown into battle with very poor kit and support. In Vietnam that was called fragging. It could be happening and we just don't hear about it. What we hear about is special squads in the rear of the battlefield who shot their soldiers if they run from the Ukrainians. We do hear of cases where Russian artillery is directed at retreating soldiers. These situations usually spread through the ranks quickly. Thus my comment about soldiers shooting their superiors. 

[Yoshiyoshi]

Just now, Boudrias said:

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't Poland have the largest army in Europe? Very mechanized land forces with over 1000 tanks and 164,000 serving members. Their spend on their military is now set at 3% of GDP. Enlistment will hit 300,000 by 2035. What they have is mostly NATO level quality which includes a lot of tech. Russia won't be attacking Poland. 
 

Earlier I mention Russian soldiers shooting their superiors as they were thrown into battle with very poor kit and support. In Vietnam that was called fragging. It could be happening and we just don't hear about it. What we hear about is special squads in the rear of the battlefield who shot their soldiers if they run from the Ukrainians. We do hear of cases where Russian artillery is directed at retreating soldiers. These situations usually spread through the ranks quickly. Thus my comment about soldiers shooting their superiors. 

Yep i think Poland has the largest army like you said.

[King Heffy]

9 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't Poland have the largest army in Europe? Very mechanized land forces with over 1000 tanks and 164,000 serving members. Their spend on their military is now set at 3% of GDP. Enlistment will hit 300,000 by 2035. What they have is mostly NATO level quality which includes a lot of tech. Russia won't be attacking Poland. 
 

Earlier I mention Russian soldiers shooting their superiors as they were thrown into battle with very poor kit and support. In Vietnam that was called fragging. It could be happening and we just don't hear about it. What we hear about is special squads in the rear of the battlefield who shot their soldiers if they run from the Ukrainians. We do hear of cases where Russian artillery is directed at retreating soldiers. These situations usually spread through the ranks quickly. Thus my comment about soldiers shooting their superiors. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Poland defeat Russia without any assistance if it came down to it.

[Yoshiyoshi]

1 minute ago, King Heffy said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Poland defeat Russia without any assistance if it came down to it.

the key would be their logistics, does Poland have the manufacturing capacity to supply their military alone at war levels of consumption? I wouldnt expect Russia to be able to conquer Poland but if they wanted a land corridor to Kalingrad or whatever its called they might be able to pave a path to it with the bodies of their conscripts.

[WeneedLumme]

32 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see Poland defeat Russia without any assistance if it came down to it.

A couple of years ago I would have laughed at that. But if Russia tried it right now, while still engaged in Ukraine, with what's left of their formerly formidable looking military might, yeah, they'd get their butts handed to them.

[Honky Cat]

 

[King Heffy]

1 hour ago, BlockerHigh said:

 

A just war is better than an unjust peace.  No worries about a draft as I'll voluntarily enlist if we end up at war with Russia.

[Optimist Prime]

2 hours ago, Yoshiyoshi said:

Honestly if more of their troops shot their leaders, i would be less worried about an attack on Poland. The fact that they dont is what makes me think it could happen.

side bar: only a few days back i was watching a Ukrainian drones footage: it zoomed in to what was a russian likely conscript killing what is likely a superior and then stealing his boots, wallet, some gear..and crawling away to a bush. I guess on the front lines, no one is really looking all that closely at the wounds in the corpses, and this seemed like an opportunity for the grunt to upgrade some pay and clothing?

[Salacious Crumb]

1 hour ago, BlockerHigh said:

 

Millenial war monger? Most here are Gen X or Boomers. You just throwing scat at walls now? Or perhaps again?

[I.Am.Ironman]

2 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't Poland have the largest army in Europe? Very mechanized land forces with over 1000 tanks and 164,000 serving members. Their spend on their military is now set at 3% of GDP. Enlistment will hit 300,000 by 2035. What they have is mostly NATO level quality which includes a lot of tech. Russia won't be attacking Poland.

I think France and the UK are the top dogs in Europe. Poland is certainly up there though.

[Kootenay Gold]

6 hours ago, Calamity K said:

Yes, gimme more of that chaos. Can't get enough of it.

The only chaos I'm seeing is within the republican party.

 

[I.Am.Ironman]

1 hour ago, BlockerHigh said:

 

As has been alluded to many, many, many times. We all want peace. But how do you de-escalate? What is your peace plan? If it involves territory concession then it's a hard no. This talk of peace by the Russian side is BS. They could have peace if they left Ukraine, yet they remain.

 

As for a draft, I see that as pretty unlikely given how war is being fought now (see Ukraine). Warfare has changed in the last 50 years; success is less dependent on the 'meat grinder' than wars of the past.