The Russia/Ukraine War Thread

[RomanPer]

26 minutes ago, Playoff Beered said:

These numbers are some of the largest I've seen from 1 day losses, 1380 troops, 55 tanks and 120 armoured personnel carriers!!

 

 

 

This is the result of Avdiivka.

[Boudrias]

37 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

It would be naive to think that Russia via Iran is not somehow involved, if not in the command and control, then in the string pulling at the very least. 

This iteration of the Legion of Doom, imo, needs to be pushed back: Russia, Iran and its proxies, North Korea. I am not so sure Xi is really enabling Putin as much as tolerating him at this stage, but that is just me. 

 

edit: as a side note, did anyone else see, maybe two months ago, a map reportedly leaked from chinese intel that suggested hypothetical future state boundaries in Asia? China basically in this version had expanded to anex easter Russia from the Kamchatkan peninsula all the way west to about the Yenisei River, more than half of Russia, while Mongolia and Kazakhstan grew northward a bit..Georgia and Chechnya were bigger towards the north and Western Russia was a bigger Belarus, Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia and Finland. I didn't save a copy but it was interesting, charting out the hypothetical of a russian complete collapse.

If Russia implodes which it appears to be doing then the world should expect China to take Siberia and whatever else it can grab. There was much more talk of this in the spring. It could be propaganda designed to drive a wedge between Russia/China. Just imagine what China would do if a choice had to be made between Taiwan and Siberia. Does Russia use whatever is left of their nukes to defend Siberia? 

 

The winter of Russian discontent is descending quickly. Their boys will be freezing to death in Ukraine and the AFU will be getting stronger. The Ukrainian airforce will start to get their modern airplanes. There must be a sizeable group of Russians who realize that Putin has to go and that they have to leave Ukraine if they have any hope of keeping their country together. The Russian people will not be as cold as their soldiers in Ukraine but they will be going with out some heat and food.  

[Playoff Beered]

 

[Optimist Prime]

12 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

If Russia implodes which it appears to be doing then the world should expect China to take Siberia and whatever else it can grab. There was much more talk of this in the spring. It could be propaganda designed to drive a wedge between Russia/China. Just imagine what China would do if a choice had to be made between Taiwan and Siberia. Does Russia use whatever is left of their nukes to defend Siberia? 

 

The winter of Russian discontent is descending quickly. Their boys will be freezing to death in Ukraine and the AFU will be getting stronger. The Ukrainian airforce will start to get their modern airplanes. There must be a sizeable group of Russians who realize that Putin has to go and that they have to leave Ukraine if they have any hope of keeping their country together. The Russian people will not be as cold as their soldiers in Ukraine but they will be going with out some heat and food.  

Main fears of a russian collapse are the thousands of nukes. It is safer to prop up Putin than to topple him, or at least it was safer to prop up Putin than to topple him, that math has likely changed at the head shed. 

[Satchmo]

2 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

Main fears of a russian collapse are the thousands of nukes. It is safer to prop up Putin than to topple him, or at least it was safer to prop up Putin than to topple him, that math has likely changed at the head shed. 

We've been though the Soviet collapse and the nukes remained siloed.   I think Russians are as afraid of nukes as we are (despite the RT rhetoric).

 

My fear,  and likely the fear of many Ukrainians who want Putin to disappear, is would his replacement be someone who thought Putin went too far, or not far enough?

[Yoshiyoshi]

If Russia does collapse you can bet there will be movement from the US and others to prevent control of nuclear weapons from being lost, either by making deals with those in charge of them or with whatever governments form. Nukes are expensive to maintain, especially ones that can be launched. Most of these new governments wont have much power and will be willing to give them up for financial aid and military support.

 

As for China seizing territory, thats not necessarily a bad thing either. It wouldnt be good for us but any territory that they take and hold would be territory that wont fall to civil war and warlordism so that would provide a level of stability and security for the region, although it would make China a bigger threat on the world stage.

[Optimist Prime]

No confirmation of authenticity to this, just something that came up on a Ukrainian bloggers feed.

Quote

From the Ruzzian Wagner channel: 

Automatic translation 

Judging by the latest information, we are now wasting our mobile formations in attempts to break into the enemy’s defenses in Avdeevka.

These units, as well as the ammunition for them, had been accumulated and equipped since the winter. And if there is no success in the near future, it turns out that the parts will be wasted. But the enemy still has operational reserves and their logistics leverage is much shorter than ours. The presence of such units will allow them to carry out an offensive with a breakthrough of the front and access to operational space.

Judging by the enemy’s video recordings, we have ALREADY lost no less equipment than they did during the entire summer campaign near Rabotino. And if they initially did not intend to hit with all their might, but only imposed local activity all summer, then the plan is quite workable. Over the summer, exchange our trained and active units for their infantry, which is easier with mobs. reserve (permanent mobilization, hello). Do not allow the parts to recover over the summer, keep the entire area under tension and constantly grind down the prepared skeleton.

I see only one way out along Avdeevka. Don’t throw at a new battalion every day, in the expectation that “well, these ones will definitely be consolidated now,” but stop and think. These are echoes of the tactics of the First World War and grinding. We are already at a much different level of technical development. We can afford to iron their first and second lines for a week, not allowing rotations and deliveries. During this time, establish communication (which again does not exist) and interaction. This is provided that we need Avdiivka itself like air

If anyone was inspired by Wagner and the operation in Bakhmut , then remember the amount of iron that was rained down on the enemy’s heads every day. And that level of organization and interaction.
We have enough iron to bury Avdeevka, not for one PR day of artillery strikes, but for weeks and months. If you can’t take with precision, take with massaging. We'd rather build new cities than dig graves.

If you can’t break through a wall with your head, try to think with your head, otherwise you might break it

 

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, Optimist Prime said:

No confirmation of authenticity to this, just something that came up on a Ukrainian bloggers feed.

 

Absolutely staggering the losses that the Russians are absorbing. 55 tanks in one day? That is over 2 companies! I don't put much credence in any news out of Russia. All levels of their society seems to be full of blowhards that are trying to outdo their fellow citizens spewing BS. I watched a clip the other day of 2 men at a desk threatening all the West with death and destruction. As one yapped away the other sat there with a half smile as he waited his turn.  

[Honky Cat]

 

[Honky Cat]

 

[Optimist Prime]

https://youtu.be/hvlSgd4WL9M?si=LwaALQ28v1f6TS-m

 

[Muscatel Marauder]

 

[Ds4quality]

21 hours ago, RomanPer said:

 

And some people in the Israeli war thread were making fun of me when I suggested that russia was involved...  

You mean the guy who needs the united states tax dollars finally speaks out... took him this long to grow a backbone. 

This is just posturing to get more financial aid. If he really cared he would have done something before his money was tied to Ukraine. 

[Satchmo]

1 hour ago, Ds4quality said:

You mean the guy who needs the united states tax dollars finally speaks out... took him this long to grow a backbone. 

This is just posturing to get more financial aid. If he really cared he would have done something before his money was tied to Ukraine. 

Sorry, but I've tried and I can't figure out who 'the guy' is.   Can you name names?

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Sharpshooter]

 

[Optimist Prime]

2 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

 

I don't know about that number. It is in the thousands, 100%, but I just don't think it is that high. The CIA fact book cites a standing ground troop force of 350,000 and a further 150,000 airborne troops along with 20,000 special operations forces. almost a million total full time personnel.  While it does't specifically list tanks, I understand the Russian Federation to have had a prewar number said to be around 13,000 total tanks, but modern 'main battle fleet' tanks hovering around 3,000. 
We have seen some instances of post ww2 tanks rumbling into battle or dug in as more or less stationary artiliary pieces, so maybe the high number of 13,000 is correct? I would guess it is less, but I just don't know exactly. If 5000 russian tanks destroyed is correct they coming close to having lost half their prewar complete total of all possible tanks. 

[Boudrias]

2 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

 

Ukrainians are using drones with AI capability. They can complete their missions even if they lose communications. Also developing drones that can return to their bases after completing their missions. The Russians digging trenches towards Ukrainian lines is right out of WW 1.