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The Russia/Ukraine War Thread

Sharpshooter

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JIAHN Middle 6

JIAHN

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1 hour ago, CBH1926 said:

My info was to show that comparing to 2022 aid has significantly dropped in 2023.

Next time try reading it first before responding. As far as Germany goes, that still has to go in front of German parliament in 2024 and get ratified. Also that amount is only 25% of total weapons pledged by the European nations in 2024 , the problem is  that there is lot of pushback from other countries.
 

No one is disputing that NATO and EU have more money than Russia, I am questioning willingness to spend it all to help Ukraine. Russia has converted about third of its total industry to produce military equipment. Is Canada or anyone else willing to do the same? Putin can’t lose the war, Ukraine has no choice but to fight, the rest of the world has other options. If U.S thinks that Ukraine can’t win the war, they will continue providing enough weapons to slowly bleed Russians but not enough to get them out of Ukraine.

 

I do agree that none of us have the crystal ball or know what will happen. All we can do is try to read tea leaves. My hope was for Ukraine to liberate their country. What I see now is quagmire, where Russians have dug in and fortified and liberating every square kilometer of the territory will be very costly. Considering that according to U.S intelligence sources Ukrainian army has 500k soldiers and thus far almost 100k have been killed and permanently maimed. Those are very heavy loses, now granted Russian loses are even higher but they have an army of 1.2 million so they can suffer bigger loses.

 

I did read your comments, and IMO, it was saying Russia will win the war because there is no will in the west. I disagree with that, and after coming back from Thailand, where I had the opportunity to talk to alot of Europeans, it became very obvious that they are invested. As for the USA, you made my point, if Ukraine is winning, they will continue funnelling support in (It is their industry that is the driver of this) and even if Ukraine is loosing, will continue, as it weakens Russia...and will exhort a major cost to Russia.  As for Putin, he is just the figurehead, and could not do this alone, but from what I was hearing abroad, there is growing discontent. He is pulling weapon systems from everywhere, and this indicates to me, that he is running short, if not shorter.

 

PS........my response, it merely to point out that there is an obvious awakening by the German government, and that was echoed by those germans I talked to. I think the general consensus from the germans I talked to was a understanding that this has to be ran to its conclusion, and that Germany is in for the long haul. IMO, this only shows that the feeling is not giving up. 

 

I think the press comments, just cement, these thoughts for me. I do however find it funny that you dismiss the German statements, but use the "IF" Trump wins argument as fact. IMO, you can not use one with out the other, as both are in future, and have equal arguments.

 

I do believe that Putin will stretch this out as long as he can, hoping for the west to tire, but I also think the west has equally thought this through and what we hear today, was planned months ago. If there is not a 1 month plan, a 6 month plan, a 1 year plan, and a 5 year plan, etc, then these leaders, both political and military, are not doing their jobs. I do not see them flying by the seat of their pants. 

 

Just my opinion. Cheers!

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Boudrias All-Star

Boudrias

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19 hours ago, JIAHN said:

@StrayDog

 

I just got back from Thailand where there is a large Russian population. I had chance to talk to some, who were there with their families. These people were very aware of world opinion, and declared their disgust with their government, but stated there is no ability to voice disagreement, so their statement was to leave the country, and avoid conscription. They did not want to die, nor to kill.

 

Another family, 2 people who lived in Russia (Omsk), the man was Russian (55 years old), the woman Ukrainian (Tanya). We talked, and would say good morning each day, their view was similar to the first family, but they obviously did not expect to be drafted due to age, but left as a protest, as he was a manager, and she a nurse, and felt their absence would be felt.

 

Tanya, the nurse, knitted me a Christmas Tree ornament, and presented it to me, on my way to my car, after I had checked out. I believe it was a statement. "we are good people!" (with no voice!) PS...they actually had waited for me! That says something!

 

The third encounter I had was with a Russian man, who as I fiddled to repair a wheelchair, came over and held the wheelchair still, while I secured the foot rest. After I thanked him, he reached out and shook my hand. (something I was confused about, as it was me that was given the help, and we did not actually talk.) Again, I believe it was a statement.

 

The point I walked away from all this, is that, I had a strong feeling, that all the Russians I encountered wanted to show me, they were decent people, and wanted me to understand this. 

 

I came away with the conclusion, that they did not want the world to see them in a negative light.

 

PS.............I was in Thailand for 16 days, and probably met 20 or more Russians, in each case , I said hi and asked them where they were from, in each case, I would say "Hello from Canada!" and in each case without exception, even though they knew Canada was part of NATO and fighting their country, none were aggressive, and in most cases, responded with handshakes and "Hello's", this included the 4 young drunk Russians blocking the sidewalk in Pattaya, who quietly moved when I asked them to.

 

It has certainly made me ponder how the common Russian thinks about this war. Certainly,those that have left.

 

Just something I thought I would share this with all you.........I am open to disagreement, as it is certainly up for debate.....I can reach no other conclusion

 

 

The Russian dissidents I admire are not the ones in Thailand but the Russians inside their country blowing up military warehouses, railroads, military factories etc. Those are the true patriots.

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JIAHN Middle 6

JIAHN

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24 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

The Russian dissidents I admire are not the ones in Thailand but the Russians inside their country blowing up military warehouses, railroads, military factories etc. Those are the true patriots.

Hi Boudrias

 

I don't disagree at all. But I certainly came away with a different view point. I wonder if they will ever go back, or even be allowed to, for fear of penalty.

 

My point was more that, those I met, were very compassionate, caring and open people, who, although not making large statements, were quietly trying to convey a message of peace.

 

Are they hero's, no, but disatents? Yes, I believe so. Maybe not all, but certainly, the majority of the ones I came in contact with.

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CBH1926 Franchise Star

CBH1926

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, JIAHN said:

 

I did read your comments, and IMO, it was saying Russia will win the war because there is no will in the west. I disagree with that, and after coming back from Thailand, where I had the opportunity to talk to alot of Europeans, it became very obvious that they are invested. As for the USA, you made my point, if Ukraine is winning, they will continue funnelling support in (It is their industry that is the driver of this) and even if Ukraine is loosing, will continue, as it weakens Russia...and will exhort a major cost to Russia.  As for Putin, he is just the figurehead, and could not do this alone, but from what I was hearing abroad, there is growing discontent. He is pulling weapon systems from everywhere, and this indicates to me, that he is running short, if not shorter.

 

PS........my response, it merely to point out that there is an obvious awakening by the German government, and that was echoed by those germans I talked to. I think the general consensus from the germans I talked to was a understanding that this has to be ran to its conclusion, and that Germany is in for the long haul. IMO, this only shows that the feeling is not giving up. 

 

I think the press comments, just cement, these thoughts for me. I do however find it funny that you dismiss the German statements, but use the "IF" Trump wins argument as fact. IMO, you can not use one with out the other, as both are in future, and have equal arguments.

 

I do believe that Putin will stretch this out as long as he can, hoping for the west to tire, but I also think the west has equally thought this through and what we hear today, was planned months ago. If there is not a 1 month plan, a 6 month plan, a 1 year plan, and a 5 year plan, etc, then these leaders, both political and military, are not doing their jobs. I do not see them flying by the seat of their pants. 

 

Just my opinion. Cheers!

I wasn’t saying that there is no will in the west, my point was that war fatigue is starting to kick in judging by falling donations. You mentioned talking to lot of Europeans in Thailand. As a born and raised European. I think most Europeans, Americans, Canadians etc. do support Ukraine. I live in Chicago area that has welcomed 30 000 Ukrainian refugees and also we have very sizable Ukrainian diaspora as well. It is very clear that most Americans are siding with Ukraine. With all that in mind, I don’t like how this conflict is turning. Politics and geopolitical interests trump public opinion imo. I have been hoping for Russian defeat in Ukraine for many reasons, latest turn of events have made me skeptical. I hope I am wrong.

Edited by CBH1926
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DSVII Top 6

DSVII

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One mistake the west has made was their delay the production and swift delivery of military equipment They delayed too long in giving Ukraine access to HIMARs and ATACMs and pinned their hopes on the 2023 Summer offensive when realistically they should have been gearing Ukraine for total war from the start.

 

Russia has done so this year, spending about 6% of their GDP on the war, while the Western leaders were hoping the limited stocks given to Ukraine in 2023 were enough. Russia knows it can only win now via a political victory (More pro-Russian leaders elected like in the netherlands, 2024 US election) so holding out another year isn't a big deal to him, and he can continue using hybrid warfare techniques to put pressure on Ukraine. I think 2024 we'll see the West come to that realization and begin gearing up their own production. 

 

One thing that isn't getting enough traction is the Polish Trucker blockade at the Ukraine border, where truckers are protesting and blocking thousands of trucks of humanitarian aid and gear into Ukraine. 

 

These union leaders have ties to the Kremlin, the truckers themselves are innocent, told by the union bosses they are protecting their livelihood, but the ringleaders themselves are being fed funds from the Kremlin.  They plan on striking for several months.

 

 

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