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HKSR's Spreadsheet Forecasting the Cap Situation to 2026-27


HKSR

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I don't think the Kuzmenko experiment is over. I doubt we trade him for a low return getting him going again should be the priority. Pete and Kuzz can make magic together they just need a playmaking puck hound riding with them.  

 

Mikheyev I think they will be forced to trade in the offseason. 

 

Blueger Lafferty Cole walk. 

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If Hronek signs at $6.5M I expect that to be a pretty short contract.  I feel like DeSmith would agree to $2M.  I feel like Tanev would not agree to one year at $3M.  Some team will pay for term.  If Boeser hits 50g this year and at least 45g the next, I'm not sure if $7M is enough to keep him going to Minnesota.

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Thanks for all the research. This is a best case scenario.   I hope it all goes like this, or similar.  But as Rutherford said "if everything goes right".  That includes avoiding any major injuries, or too many at the wrong time, making players untradable and/or ineffective.  And the cap goes up enough. And I agree with Miss Korea about Boeser wanting more than 7 next time. And we'll be lucky to sign Hronek to a long term @ 6.5

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30 minutes ago, Miss Korea said:

If Hronek signs at $6.5M I expect that to be a pretty short contract.  I feel like DeSmith would agree to $2M.  I feel like Tanev would not agree to one year at $3M.  Some team will pay for term.  If Boeser hits 50g this year and at least 45g the next, I'm not sure if $7M is enough to keep him going to Minnesota.

My reasonings below:

 

I can't see Tanev getting term unless term is 2 years.  The guy is gonna be 35 years old by the end of this calendar year.  He's realistically one bad injury away from retirement.  Also hearing he really wants to come back to Vancouver.  So if that's the case, he might take a pay cut to be here.  Especially considering how the Canucks are now a potential Cup contender.

 

I'd be pleasantly surprised if Boeser hits 50.  He would need to go on another very hot run though.  Prior to his hattrick against CLB, he had 3 goals in the previous 14 games.  To hit 50, he's gonna need 20 in the final 33 games.  Could it happen?  Absolutely.  Will it likely happen?  I'm not betting on it.

 

Would be great if DeSmith comes back at $2M.  He's as solid of a backup as they come.  Just a placeholder of $2M there because I think that's the cost for a reliable backup.  Can't cheap out on that area.

 

Hronek is an interesting case.  Clearly he started out on fire like many Canucks did this year, but he has faded lately.  0 points in his last 7 games.  Yeah, he's a defenceman, but part of him earning the big bucks is because of his offensive output.  I think he finishes with about 55 points this season which puts him in the Hampus Lindholm range more than the Vince Dunn range. 

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I don't think the Lotto Line will ever be a long term permanent thing.  It's great to have for short term effect, but long term if we are paying Petey $12 million then he needs to be a centre and carrying his own line.

 

I like the all Swedish line of Hoglander  Pettersson and Lekkerimaki.  I also like to see Podkolzin turn into an NHL power forward and play with Miller and Boeser.  Not sure we need Blueger and to overpay him for one good year when Suter can take his spot as a 3C.  Joshua is a must as he is a legit power forward who is now in his prime.

 

Our future lineup in two years:

 

Hoglander    Pettersson   Lekkerimaki

Podkolzin     Miller            Boeser

Joshua         Suter            Garland

Bains            Aman            Lafferty

 

Hughes       Hronek

Zadorov      Willander 

D-Petey      Hunter B

 

Demko     Silovs

 

Raty is still a question mark as he is playing left wing in Abby not centre, so not sure if he will be a full time centre in the NHL.  If he can be, then he can take Suter's spot.  If not, then we probably need an upgrade on 3C in the future.  I think we still need one more RHD as I'm not sure Hunter B will be a good fit on the 3rd pairing.  I think we should use him as trade bait to get a legit 3C or a tough and rugged RHD...

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Good work @HKSR

 

Yep for sure Kuzy and Mik won't be part of the big OEL years. Which is fine, they don't need to be. 

 

We certainly do need to have Willander and Lekker in the mix going forward. I do see this years 1st and Kuzy being the big ticket items we'd be shopping for any upgrades for his run.

 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

Good work @HKSR

 

Yep for sure Kuzy and Mik won't be part of the big OEL years. Which is fine, they don't need to be. 

 

We certainly do need to have Willander and Lekker in the mix going forward. I do see this years 1st and Kuzy being the big ticket items we'd be shopping for any upgrades for his run.

 

Yip, I think Pods is in that mix as well. Pods is not wavier wire exempt next season and with this managements ability to find bottom six fill ins, they may see him as expandable. 

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4 minutes ago, Rekker said:

Yip, I think Pods is in that mix as well. Pods is not wavier wire exempt next season and with this managements ability to find bottom six fill ins, they may see him as expandable. 

 

could be... he could be the difference in a more blockbuster style deal. 

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4 minutes ago, Rekker said:

Yip, I think Pods is in that mix as well. Pods is not wavier wire exempt next season and with this managements ability to find bottom six fill ins, they may see him as expandable. 

They didn't trade Hoglander who's tops in the nhl 5v5 goals per 60.  Pods is part of the future. We need guys like him. 

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Just now, Hammertime said:

They didn't trade Hoglander who's tops in the nhl 5v5 goals per 60.  Pods is part of the future. We need guys like him. 

We do, but have to give to get. This management group has shown in Pitts and now here thay they are able to find affordable bottom six players if need be.

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Another thing to consider in your forecasting once you get many years out--the cap inflation will likely be relevant. 2026-27 numbers probably won't be apples to apples when comparing to 2023-24.

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3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I don't think the Lotto Line will ever be a long term permanent thing.  It's great to have for short term effect, but long term if we are paying Petey $12 million then he needs to be a centre and carrying his own line.

 

I like the all Swedish line of Hoglander  Pettersson and Lekkerimaki.  I also like to see Podkolzin turn into an NHL power forward and play with Miller and Boeser.  Not sure we need Blueger and to overpay him for one good year when Suter can take his spot as a 3C.  Joshua is a must as he is a legit power forward who is now in his prime.

 

Our future lineup in two years:

 

Hoglander    Pettersson   Lekkerimaki

Podkolzin     Miller            Boeser

Joshua         Suter            Garland

Bains            Aman            Lafferty

 

Hughes       Hronek

Zadorov      Willander 

D-Petey      Hunter B

 

Demko     Silovs

 

Raty is still a question mark as he is playing left wing in Abby not centre, so not sure if he will be a full time centre in the NHL.  If he can be, then he can take Suter's spot.  If not, then we probably need an upgrade on 3C in the future.  I think we still need one more RHD as I'm not sure Hunter B will be a good fit on the 3rd pairing.  I think we should use him as trade bait to get a legit 3C or a tough and rugged RHD...

Im really starting to think petey isnt worth much more than 10. His points come when playing with good players the majority of the time

 

he hasnt been able to get kuz or mik to turn the corner or even keep them on a 35-40 point pace

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17 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

 

17 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I don't think the Lotto Line will ever be a long term permanent thing.  It's great to have for short term effect, but long term if we are paying Petey $12 million then he needs to be a centre and carrying his own line.

 

I like the all Swedish line of Hoglander  Pettersson and Lekkerimaki.  I also like to see Podkolzin turn into an NHL power forward and play with Miller and Boeser.  Not sure we need Blueger and to overpay him for one good year when Suter can take his spot as a 3C.  Joshua is a must as he is a legit power forward who is now in his prime.

 

Our future lineup in two years:

 

Hoglander    Pettersson   Lekkerimaki

Podkolzin     Miller            Boeser

Joshua         Suter            Garland

Bains            Aman            Lafferty

 

Hughes       Hronek

Zadorov      Willander 

D-Petey      Hunter B

 

Demko     Silovs

 

Raty is still a question mark as he is playing left wing in Abby not centre, so not sure if he will be a full time centre in the NHL.  If he can be, then he can take Suter's spot.  If not, then we probably need an upgrade on 3C in the future.  I think we still need one more RHD as I'm not sure Hunter B will be a good fit on the 3rd pairing.  I think we should use him as trade bait to get a legit 3C or a tough and rugged RHD...

That's the thing about EP (You)

He doesn't seem to make his wingers better as a elite centre would , and does better with Miller as the Centre

 

Just last year  Hockey News rated centres and had Miller 10th  and EP 18th  Aho 12th

Aho is a Centre

EP making $12 would have to be a elite Centre, not an elite Winger

 

I see him getting closer to an Aho  deal, which was signed for $9.75 mil at 8 years (Maybe a extra $1 million) than the $12 million for our 2nd line Centre

 

 

Aho    565 games 522 points  

EP     374 games 387 points

 

Remember EP wants to play on a top team too (just how bad we will soon see, if he signs to stay longer term)- I think it will be 4-5 yrs myself? and he decides if he wants to stay and also get a bigger contract again

I am glad we have competent management and will decide the value and act accordingly where we are, cap to build a strong team

Edited by Ballisticsports
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56 minutes ago, Johnny said:

Im really starting to think petey isnt worth much more than 10. His points come when playing with good players the majority of the time

 

he hasnt been able to get kuz or mik to turn the corner or even keep them on a 35-40 point pace

 

52 minutes ago, Ballisticsports said:

 

That's the thing about EP (You)

He doesn't seem to make his wingers better as a elite centre would , and does better with Miller

Just last year  Hockey News rated centres and had Miller 10th  and EP 18th  Aho 12th

 

I see him getting closer to an Aho  deal which was $9.75 mil at 8 years (Maybe a extra $1)

 

Aho    565 games 522 points  

EP     374 games 387 points

 

Remember EP wants to play on a top team too (just how bad we will soon see, if he signs to stay longer term)- I think it will be 4-5 yrs myself? and he decides if he wants to stay and also get a bigger contract again

I am glad we have competent management and will decide the value and act accordingly where we are, cap to build a strong team

You almost wonder if Tocchet and management deliberately put Petey back with Miller and then separated them again to see how Petey's production would respond.  

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7 hours ago, HKSR said:

 

You almost wonder if Tocchet and management deliberately put Petey back with Miller and then separated them again to see how Petey's production would respond.  

Wouldn't surprise me.   EP had a bad month, it got him going right away.     His two way play continues to be high end.     Bure looked to be scoring 75-80 goals for half a season, cooled off and "only" scored 20ish more his second half.    It happens.   Thing is, what you see, is what we probably get at this point.   EP might have a big season or two, might not.    

 

Management needs to try and avoid paying him based on potential.    Cap percentage-wise,  he's shown flashes of a 14% plus cap hit player.   Which is usually reserved for the guys regularly close to, or first and second team all-stars, and have some individual hardware.   Naslund and Luongo, are the only guys we've had to get paid like that.   Super-stars.    And Naslund's was a pre-cap deal.  

 

14%, is 12.25-12.32 depending where the cap comes in (87.5-88).    Nylander and Panarin, more or less put EP at 11.5.   Don't expect it to be much less.    Media won't be nice to him if we aren't winning rounds and he's not top 5-10 in scoring.   It won't be an easy deal to live up to.   Value wise,  what we've seen the past year and a half,  is 10.5.   That's how I see it anyways.   We need EP.   Add 5% for cap going up, and maybe another 5% for taxes?   11 would be ok.    EP might choose to wait another season.   Sure hope not.   The more guys who get ridiculous deals, the worse the team bargaining position is.   

 

Edited by IBatch
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9 hours ago, Ballisticsports said:

 

That's the thing about EP (You)

He doesn't seem to make his wingers better as a elite centre would , and does better with Miller as the Centre

 

Just last year  Hockey News rated centres and had Miller 10th  and EP 18th  Aho 12th

Aho is a Centre

EP making $12 would have to be a elite Centre, not an elite Winger

 

I see him getting closer to an Aho  deal, which was signed for $9.75 mil at 8 years (Maybe a extra $1 million) than the $12 million for our 2nd line Centre

 

 

Aho    565 games 522 points  

EP     374 games 387 points

 

Remember EP wants to play on a top team too (just how bad we will soon see, if he signs to stay longer term)- I think it will be 4-5 yrs myself? and he decides if he wants to stay and also get a bigger contract again

I am glad we have competent management and will decide the value and act accordingly where we are, cap to build a strong team

AHO, Barkov, Mathew Tckchuk, are all decent comps.   Of those, Barkov probably the best,  Barkov is a better defensive player, and can play with anyone, also a Captain.    EP has more offensive upside, and game breaking ability.    Panarin would be a good comp too, if EP played on the wing (which he does to a degree on the Lotto line).    

 

Cap going up 5%, means a 9.5-10.5 deal, needs to go up 450-550k.   Taxes might be an issue.  Believe that's part of the reason, TO keeps overpaying.   We are in the same tax bracket.     In the end,  EPs stats this year, look good.   He's on pace for another 100 point season.   And as far as centers goes so far, he's only behind McKinnon, Miller, McDavid ... and right around Rhino .. for 8th in scoring.    I'm sure a lot of teams would offer him 12 once he's a UFA.   Even is he's "just" a PPG player next season.   Or a no state tax team, offer him 10.5, same take home anyways.    So what the OP has him down as a likely cost.    Just hope he can live up to it, our media, can be brutal.   Just look at how they've treated Miller at times.    A couple guys should be giving  him a full apology.   Miller is part of the reason, the team can afford to pay him, and also why they should pay him.     We've never had two centers, top 8 league wide.    H. Sedin and Kesler, high bar to date.    Miller and EP are tracking to pass that this year.  

Edited by IBatch
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It's really hard to predict that far ahead and I would say that when you look at a lot of teams there's usually loads more turnover over 2-3 years even, especially if they're not doing well. If we continue to succeed then hopefully Allvin will keep a lot of fringe guys (Lafferty, Blueger, Suter etc.) who would otherwise be lost to free agency but you never know. 


I like the idea of Podkolzin, Hoglander, Willander and Lekkerimaki making the team in a bigger way over the next few years. Surely they're all lock full-time NHLers but I'm not entirely sold on Podz or Raty just yet - they still have bust potential. Then there's always later picks, say like D.Petey or Hunter.B who might surprise everyone and become future studs.

 

In any case, we've got really good progression systems at most positions except skilled top centers. Miller's maybe only got a couple of years of top-line production left if we're lucky. Petey will run the show for a while. After that, we don't really have a skilled guy to work into the mix to eventually take the reins of Miller so that's something management have to start thinking about now - whether we draft a decent center (although, with what good pick?) or acquire a young guy. Raty, Blueger and Suter are far from that. Young skilled centers rarely fall to you in free agency. We've got great wingers of all sorts in our pipeline and our defence is finally solidly stocked, but now we could use a future skilled center in the mix.

 

Got to like the way the team is trending and to be honest it doesn't really matter which depth guys we roll around our star-studded core, if they match our coaching style they'll do great and likely on the cheap as well. I think as many good teams, we'll see a lot of cheap UFA pick ups excel and graduate from us and ask for too much money. I doubt Blueger, Suter, Joshua and Lafferty stay with the team as long as you've projected (a lot of them may well leave this off-season) but it's no big deal, we'll just replace them from within quite easily.

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14 hours ago, HKSR said:

 

You almost wonder if Tocchet and management deliberately put Petey back with Miller and then separated them again to see how Petey's production would respond.  

Always have to consider what is systems and the players you play with

 

IMO if petey cant drive a line and put up respectable numbers hes just a powerplay specialist and worth 8-10

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If we do trade for Lindholm and Tanev, can we feasibly extend them in the offseason?

 

This would come with trading Kuzmenko and or possibly trading Mikheyev.  Also Blueger and Lafferty would not be re-signed.

 

Re-Sign 

Pettersson 

Hronek

Zadorov

Lindholm

Tanev

Joshua

 

Joshua          Miller        Boeser

Pettersson  Lindholm   Hoglander

Podkolzin      Suter       Garland

Bains             Aman       Di Giuseppe

 

Hughes  Tanev

Zadorov  Hronek

Soucy     Juulsen

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17 hours ago, Ballisticsports said:

 

That's the thing about EP (You)

He doesn't seem to make his wingers better as a elite centre would , and does better with Miller as the Centre

 

Just last year  Hockey News rated centres and had Miller 10th  and EP 18th  Aho 12th

Aho is a Centre

EP making $12 would have to be a elite Centre, not an elite Winger

 

I see him getting closer to an Aho  deal, which was signed for $9.75 mil at 8 years (Maybe a extra $1 million) than the $12 million for our 2nd line Centre

 

 

Aho    565 games 522 points  

EP     374 games 387 points

 

Remember EP wants to play on a top team too (just how bad we will soon see, if he signs to stay longer term)- I think it will be 4-5 yrs myself? and he decides if he wants to stay and also get a bigger contract again

I am glad we have competent management and will decide the value and act accordingly where we are, cap to build a strong team

lol that's a bunch of crap about ep not making his wingers better and miller makes his wingers better.. EP have more assist in the last 2 years than miller overall and 5v5.. and if you take out miller's assist to EP and boeser.. and take out EP's assist to miller and boeser.. EP have way more assist to other players on the team than miller does.. so please.. the quality of linemates EP had over the last couple years including defence pairing is night and day compared to miller. yet EP still have more points/assist than miller last season and this season combined.. 

 

it's also pretty obvious those center rankings is probably heaily weighted with faceoff% or somethin.. lol EP who's 10th in scoring is lower than someone 27th and 63rd in scoring? EP last year is way better than Miller and Aho offensively and defensively.. heck Miller wasn't even playing center for 2 months last season

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3 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol that's a bunch of crap about ep not making his wingers better and miller makes his wingers better.. EP have more assist in the last 2 years than miller overall and 5v5.. and if you take out miller's assist to EP and boeser.. and take out EP's assist to miller and boeser.. EP have way more assist to other players on the team than miller does.. so please.. the quality of linemates EP had over the last couple years including defence pairing is night and day compared to miller. yet EP still have more points/assist than miller last season and this season combined.. 

 

it's also pretty obvious those center rankings is probably heaily weighted with faceoff% or somethin.. lol EP who's 10th in scoring is lower than someone 27th and 63rd in scoring? EP last year is way better than Miller and Aho offensively and defensively.. heck Miller wasn't even playing center for 2 months last season

Maybe you are right ?, but not without providing proof of the numbers of points (without providing) he has without Miller and Boeser in on his points collected

How many assists and goals does EP have without Boeser or Miller to prove that though?

People could see the 1st and 3rd lines scoring and not the 2nd (and were calling our 3rd line the 2nd)

EP has got points, but not so much directing his own line and I would wager most of his points are on the PP and while playing with Miller and Brock

No one is putting EP down with observations between Miller and EP centering their own lines seperate of one another

Edited by Ballisticsports
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