Vaccine thread

[Xanlet]

Just now, Satchmo said:

I said almost every post my tenacious friend.  Can we see some posts on 'adverse reactions' to Covid 19?

 

So you do accept the numbers from the Government of Canada? Because you accused me of "cherry picking" serious adverse reaction data when I simply used math based on official Government of Canada numbers, which equals out to 1 serious adverse reaction per 74 families of 20 who all take 6 shots.

 

I think it's very important to nail down each part of the equation, and by now, we should all be able to agree there is a very clear and present risk of serious adverse reactions to this vaccine based on official data.

[Satchmo]

1 minute ago, Xanlet said:

So you do accept the numbers from the Government of Canada? Because you accused me of "cherry picking" serious adverse reaction data when I simply used math based on official Government of Canada numbers, which equals out to 1 serious adverse reaction per 74 families of 20 who all take 6 shots.

 

I think it's very important to nail down each part of the equation, and by now, we should all be able to agree there is a very clear and present risk of serious adverse reactions to this vaccine based on official data.

Yet we don't agree after all this.  I predict we will not regardless of how much longer the discussion continues.

 

And yes, I do accuse you of cherry picking and will continue to do so based on what I've seen.  Call tenacious.

 

This is an example of a question you decided not to pick:  What about 'adverse reactions' to Covid 19?

[Alflives]

41 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

It's very simple math, here I'll show you every step.

 

14 billion / 633 thousand = 22,116. This is 1 adverse reaction per 22,116 shots

 

if you get 6 shots, that means 22,116 / 6 = 3,686. That means 1 adverse reaction per 3,686 people with 6 shots

 

If you have 20 family members who all get 6 shots, that's 3,686 / 20 = 184. Each family of 20 who all get 6 shots have a 1 in 184 chance of one of them having a moderate to severe adverse reaction.

 

This is very simple and straight forward math based on the numbers you just provided.

 

Explain again how I'm lying???

Are there 14 billion people? 

[Warhippy]

13 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

Not sure, but according to the official Government of Canada, the rate was actually higher here in Canada with 11,702 serious adverse reactions reported and a total of 105,016,456 doses.

 

If you calculate these numbers, it comes out to 1 adverse reaction per 8,974 shots.

 

8,974 / 6 is 1,495. So 1 severe adverse reaction per 1,495 people with 6 shots.

 

A family of 20 would be 1,495 / 20 = 74. So a family of 20 with 6 shots each based on the Canadian data would have a 1 in 74 chance of 1 serious adverse reaction.

 

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccine-safety/

 

 

 

A non serious adverse event can include itching and irritation at the site of injection followed by aches and pains similar to a flu shot for a couple days afterwards.

 

That's hardly worth charting 

 

Or 11,702 events deemed serious out of 28 million injections or a 0.039% chance of a serious adverse effect.  That's a pretty slim margin there

 

But.  We have almost 30 MILLION people dead or seriously fucked up from covid out of 705 million total infections or 4.25% chance of death or long term health issue.

 

This 4.25% is the number you refuse to even mention because you know full well what that means.  You keep cherry picking numbers and skirting around things.

 

But a 4.25% chance of death or long term health issue from simply getting covid based on world infection and health rates vs a 0.089% chance based on the world injection vs server VAERs event rates.

 

4.25% vs 0.089%

 

Which number does the alligator eat??

[Warhippy]

45 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

It's very simple math, here I'll show you every step.

 

14 billion / 633 thousand = 22,116. This is 1 adverse reaction per 22,116 shots

 

if you get 6 shots, that means 22,116 / 6 = 3,686. That means 1 adverse reaction per 3,686 people with 6 shots

 

If you have 20 family members who all get 6 shots, that's 3,686 / 20 = 184. Each family of 20 who all get 6 shots have a 1 in 184 chance of one of them having a moderate to severe adverse reaction.

 

This is very simple and straight forward math based on the numbers you just provided.

 

Explain again how I'm lying???

Ok.  So show of hands.

 

How many people have had 6 shots?

 

With 8 billion people on earth, 14 billion injections that's less than 1.7 per person.

 

Try again homie

Edited June 11 by Warhippy

[StrayDog]

1 hour ago, Xanlet said:

It's very simple math, here I'll show you every step.

 

14 billion / 633 thousand = 22,116. This is 1 adverse reaction per 22,116 shots

 

if you get 6 shots, that means 22,116 / 6 = 3,686. That means 1 adverse reaction per 3,686 people with 6 shots

 

If you have 20 family members who all get 6 shots, that's 3,686 / 20 = 184. Each family of 20 who all get 6 shots have a 1 in 184 chance of one of them having a moderate to severe adverse reaction.

 

This is very simple and straight forward math based on the numbers you just provided.

 

Explain again how I'm lying???

Your math is flawed. 

14 billion total shots. This accounts for people who got multiple shots, including everyone who got 6. So a 1 in 22116 chance of having an adverse effect from any given shot. So assuming your 20 family members who each got six shots that's a 1 in 1105 that one of them would have an adverse effect. Since you say you had two, that comes to 1 in 2210. And those odds change dramatically if they had less than 6 shots each.

[Spur1]

2 hours ago, StrayDog said:

Your math is flawed. 

14 billion total shots. This accounts for people who got multiple shots, including everyone who got 6. So a 1 in 22116 chance of having an adverse effect from any given shot. So assuming your 20 family members who each got six shots that's a 1 in 1105 that one of them would have an adverse effect. Since you say you had two, that comes to 1 in 2210. And those odds change dramatically if they had less than 6 shots each.

The odds do not change no matter how many shots you take. It is one in 22116 for every shot. In fact the chances of an adverse reaction decreases as your body adapts to the vaccine. 

[Xanlet]

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

 

But.  We have almost 30 MILLION people dead or seriously fucked up from covid out of 705 million total infections or 4.25% chance of death or long term health issue.

 

3 hours ago, Satchmo said:

Yet we don't agree after all this.  I predict we will not regardless of how much longer the discussion continues.

 

And yes, I do accuse you of cherry picking and will continue to do so based on what I've seen.  Call tenacious.

 

This is an example of a question you decided not to pick:  What about 'adverse reactions' to Covid 19?

Refer to this chart:

 

 

The excess deaths for people under 45 is literally a completely flat line for the whole of 2020. There was simply no risk to young people of death from the virus.  Match that against the very clear and present risk from the vaccine and the calculation is clear.

[the destroyer of worlds]

9 minutes ago, Spur1 said:

The odds do not change no matter how many shots you take. It is one in 22116 for every shot. In fact the chances of an adverse reaction decreases as your body adapts to the vaccine. 

Ya, if odds worked like was claimed, me and my family would have to just buy a few tickets each and a win in the lottery is all but guaranteed.  

[Xanlet]

3 hours ago, StrayDog said:

Your math is flawed. 

14 billion total shots. This accounts for people who got multiple shots, including everyone who got 6. So a 1 in 22116 chance of having an adverse effect from any given shot. So assuming your 20 family members who each got six shots that's a 1 in 1105 that one of them would have an adverse effect. Since you say you had two, that comes to 1 in 2210. And those odds change dramatically if they had less than 6 shots each.

1 in 22,116 is the risk PER SHOT. If you get six, you multiple your risk by 6, so per person with 6 shots it becomes 1 in 3686.

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

7 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

There was simply no risk to young people of death from the virus.

 

The 565 under-40 persons and additional 715 persons between 40-49 who died would beg to differ.

 

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/current-situation.html?stat=num&measure=deaths_total&map=pt

[Spur1]

1 minute ago, Xanlet said:

1 in 22,116 is the risk PER SHOT. If you get six, you multiple your risk by 6, so per person with 6 shots it becomes 1 in 3686.

It does not. It stays the same for each shot. 
We used to play a game with a stack of quarters where you had to guess if the next coin was heads or tails. Some times heads would come up several times in row and guys would start betting on tails coming up not realizing the odds for the next coin are still 50/50. 

[Satchmo]

11 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

 

Refer to this chart:

 

 

The excess deaths for people under 45 is literally a completely flat line for the whole of 2020. There was simply no risk to young people of death from the virus.  Match that against the very clear and present risk from the vaccine and the calculation is clear.

Thankyou for the information.   I'll look it over and get back to you in a month or two if my schedule permits.

[The Arrogant Worms]

15 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

 

art:

 

. There was simply no risk to young people of death from the virus.  Match that against the very clear and present risk from the vaccine and the calculation is clear.

My wife's cousin young...healthy.....early 30's.  Anti vaxxer.]

 

Dead.

 

Left young children because he was an idiot.

[Warhippy]

20 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

 

Refer to this chart:

 

 

The excess deaths for people under 45 is literally a completely flat line for the whole of 2020. There was simply no risk to young people of death from the virus.  Match that against the very clear and present risk from the vaccine and the calculation is clear.

You're intentionally ignoring the truth again

 

Cute

 

4.25% or less then .01%

 

The math is mathing

[Warhippy]

18 minutes ago, Xanlet said:

1 in 22,116 is the risk PER SHOT. If you get six, you multiple your risk by 6, so per person with 6 shots it becomes 1 in 3686.

14 billion injections 

 

8 billion people on planet earth

 

Less than 2 shots per person

 

Math vs histrionics 

Edited June 11 by Warhippy

[Satchmo]

1 hour ago, Xanlet said:

1 in 22,116 is the risk PER SHOT. If you get six, you multiple your risk by 6, so per person with 6 shots it becomes 1 in 3686.

What scientific - and not simple arithmetic - proof do you have that risk increases on a per shot basis that way?

[StrayDog]

2 hours ago, Xanlet said:

1 in 22,116 is the risk PER SHOT. If you get six, you multiple your risk by 6, so per person with 6 shots it becomes 1 in 3686.

Let's try this one more time. In the time frame you have put forth:

14 billion shots total were given out. That means that's all of them. No more get added or subtracted. 

There were 633 thousand adverse reactions to those 14 billion doses. Again, no more and no less.

So there was a 1 in 22116 chance per shot that an adverse reaction would occur. It didn't matter how many shots you got because those numbers are static. Getting more shots during the time that these numbers were generated doesn't change anything because the numbers were set. It's still a 1 in 22116 chance of an adverse reaction occurring during that time frame.

If means that no matter how many shots you got, by the math every single time anyone got a shot was a 1 in 22116 chance something would go wrong.  

[StrayDog]

3 hours ago, Spur1 said:

The odds do not change no matter how many shots you take. It is one in 22116 for every shot. In fact the chances of an adverse reaction decreases as your body adapts to the vaccine. 

You're correct here. I was getting loose with taking the odds of someone getting an adverse reaction and trying to then factor odds of knowing someone who had a reaction.

[Xanlet]

4 hours ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

 

The 565 under-40 persons and additional 715 persons between 40-49 who died would beg to differ.

 

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/current-situation.html?stat=num&measure=deaths_total&map=pt

This is across the entire pandemic. I think you just proved my point.

[Xanlet]

1 hour ago, StrayDog said:

Let's try this one more time. In the time frame you have put forth:

14 billion shots total were given out. That means that's all of them. No more get added or subtracted. 

There were 633 thousand adverse reactions to those 14 billion doses. Again, no more and no less.

So there was a 1 in 22116 chance per shot that an adverse reaction would occur. It didn't matter how many shots you got because those numbers are static. Getting more shots during the time that these numbers were generated doesn't change anything because the numbers were set. It's still a 1 in 22116 chance of an adverse reaction occurring during that time frame.

If means that no matter how many shots you got, by the math every single time anyone got a shot was a 1 in 22116 chance something would go wrong.  

So if you got 6 shots you'd have a 6 in 22,116 chance that one of them would give you a serious adverse reaction. Simplify the equation by dividing both sides by 6 gives you a 1 in 3,686. Again, basic math.

[Xanlet]

3 hours ago, Satchmo said:

What scientific - and not simple arithmetic - proof do you have that risk increases on a per shot basis that way?

The data records total shots and total adverse reactions. What are you even suggesting? That the first shot has all the danger and that taking a second shot does not increase your risk that it will give you an adverse reaction? Even if you suggest that all the risk is in the first shot, you'd then have to divide the total adverse reactions by the number of people with at least single shot and the 1 in 22,116 would change to be a way higher risk because you've ruled out subsequent risks (in other words, to suggest the risk is concentrated in the first shot means the first shot must be riskier than my calculation to account for all the adverse reactions).

 

It doesn't matter if you assume the risk is either in the first few shots or subsequent shots or evenly across all shots, it won't change the total risk factor across all the shots. The basic calculation is 1 adverse reaction per 22,116 shots. Not per person who had a shot, since that is not the 14 billion number, but across the shots themselves.

[Xanlet]

4 hours ago, Warhippy said:

14 billion injections 

 

8 billion people on planet earth

 

Less than 2 shots per person

 

Math vs histrionics 

Tons of people, (in the millions in African countries for example), had zero shots. Some people had 6+ some people had 0. The risk factor doesn't change, it is 1 serious adverse reaction per 22,116 shots based on the numbers you provided. It's not risk per person vaccinated, it's risk per shot. Not sure why this is hard to grasp.

[WeneedLumme]

On 6/10/2024 at 11:32 AM, The Lock said:

 

Okay, so even if it was a 0.0001% chance, you're willing to claim it's a massive issue to where we should all become anti-vaxxers?

 

On 6/10/2024 at 11:33 AM, bolt said:

If there's even that high of a chance I would take my odds on not getting a booster as most Canadians are avoiding.

 

I see one common theme here. The anti-vaxers as usual are (or pretend to be) extremely weak at math and science.

 

0.0001% is one chance in a million. It is such a small chance that reasonable people use the term "one in a million chance" to describe something that is so  extremely unlikely that it is not really worth thinking about.

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

1 hour ago, Xanlet said:

This is across the entire pandemic. I think you just proved my point.

 

On the contrary, the 1280 or so folks who died under the age of 50 shows that your point of "no risk to young people of death from the virus" was completely wrong.  It was wrong 1280 times over.  Nice try though.