Bob Long Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 13 minutes ago, Baratheon said: IMO most of you are way overcomplicating this. Hronek is worth what he can command in UFA. It would be nice if he signed for less but is under no obligation to do so. If you're trying to compare other players contracts then you have to look at the cap percentage at the time that they were signed. Current dollars values of players who signed contracts years ago is irrelevant. Most folks seem to have the best case scenario at 6.75. I personally find it hard to believe that Hronek in the 2024 off season gets only .75 more than Myers in the 2019 off season. Myers was really overpaid tho, not sure thats a fair comp. 6.75 is fair if its an 8 year term, given how much certainty that gives the player over the rest of his career. Could he go get a shorter deal with higher AAV, sure maybe by at bit. But you're just an injury away from losing a lot of money in this league. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flat land fish Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I tend to agree if granting an 8 year extension the AAV comes down as the team is sharing alot of risk in that scenario. Canucks are building something alot of players will want to be part of. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook007 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 34 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said: i think he ends up somewhere between 7.5-8 and wouldn't be surprise if he ends up higher than hughes whether it's from the canucks are from someone else. i think he gets more than toews just for the fact he's a RD.. those are a premium less than 50% of the defenceman are RD and even less when it comes to RD that can put up decent amount of points. It won't be from the Canucks... we simply can't afford handing out overflated contracts left, right and centre. If he gets gready Canucks will find Hughes another partner... so far just about anyone put on his pairing har succeded... Tan man until Willander is ready Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4ZZY Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 minutes ago, flat land fish said: I tend to agree if granting an 8 year extension the AAV comes down as the team is sharing alot of risk in that scenario. Canucks are building something alot of players will want to be part of. I wouldn't mind having Hronek for 8 years, as long as the cap hit is low-ish. That would be favourable for the Canucks. There's also cost certainty moving forward, so management will know how much they've got to spend. Hopefully a deal with Hronek's camp gets done soon. I wouldn't be surprised either if he was traded because they can't get to an agreement. I'd be sad, but wouldn't be as sad as Petey leaving the team. If a trade is inevitable for Hronek, then I hope that we get something really good in return for a youngish RHD on the market. Hard to believe he's only 26 years old. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook007 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 27 minutes ago, Baratheon said: IMO most of you are way overcomplicating this. Hronek is worth what he can command in UFA. It would be nice if he signed for less but is under no obligation to do so. If you're trying to compare other players contracts then you have to look at the cap percentage at the time that they were signed. Current dollars values of players who signed contracts years ago is irrelevant. Most folks seem to have the best case scenario at 6.75. I personally find it hard to believe that Hronek in the 2024 off season gets only .75 more than Myers in the 2019 off season. Is he not RFA? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 If/when a deal is struck, it'll almost certainly be between $7M to $8M. Personally I think it'll be on the higher end, if not $8M on the dot. Vince Dunn is the perfect comparable. - Signed his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 203lbs able to play LD or RD. - Signed his deal coming off a 14 goal, 64 point season in 81 games. - Drafted 2nd Round, 56 OA. Filip Hronek - Will sign his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 183lbs RHD - Will sign his deal coming off a 6 goal, 56 point season in 81 games (on pace). - Drafted 2nd Round, 53 OA. RHD will give Hronek a bit of a premium, but Dunn is a capable LHD that can play the right side, so the premium is less when comparing the two (+$500k). Dunn was more productive his final year before signing his deal, so based on production, Hronek should get a touch less (-$250k). Using 8.8% as a starting point = $7.72M + $500k - $250k = $7.97M ... let's round it to an even $8M AAV. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 29 minutes ago, spook007 said: Is he not RFA? Exactly. He is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, wai_lai416 said: i think he ends up somewhere between 7.5-8 and wouldn't be surprise if he ends up higher than hughes whether it's from the canucks are from someone else. i think he gets more than toews just for the fact he's a RD.. those are a premium less than 50% of the defenceman are RD and even less when it comes to RD that can put up decent amount of points. No doubt on the open market, someone might be willing to pay a big premium. We have to be careful given his deal starts next season. Don't see the rush ... unless Allvin is concerned a lot of bad deals are about to happen this summer which is possible. Wouldn't it be nice, to first see how things go the rest of the season and the playoffs? Personally think he's going to have a hard time finding a team willing to pony up 56-59 million over 7 years. Edited March 13 by IBatch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 (edited) 21 minutes ago, HKSR said: If/when a deal is struck, it'll almost certainly be between $7M to $8M. Personally I think it'll be on the higher end, if not $8M on the dot. Vince Dunn is the perfect comparable. - Signed his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 203lbs able to play LD or RD. - Signed his deal coming off a 14 goal, 64 point season in 81 games. - Drafted 2nd Round, 56 OA. Filip Hronek - Will sign his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 183lbs RHD - Will sign his deal coming off a 6 goal, 56 point season in 81 games (on pace). - Drafted 2nd Round, 53 OA. RHD will give Hronek a bit of a premium, but Dunn is a capable LHD that can play the right side, so the premium is less when comparing the two (+$500k). Dunn was more productive his final year before signing his deal, so based on production, Hronek should get a touch less (-$250k). Using 8.8% as a starting point = $7.72M + $500k - $250k = $7.97M ... let's round it to an even $8M AAV. The biggest difference of course, Dunn doesn't play with QHs. He is their top pairing. It's not bad though. They also don't have any state taxes. You could be right. Dunn's also has a penchant for scoring goals, going back to his early St. Louis days. Man St. louis, and MIN lost some guys. Our gain this signing (Soucy). Personally think they should be evaluating on a guy who's capable of scoring 40-45 points on his own with first unit PP time. Not 14 goals and 64 points. The tax thing might give Hronek a bump, and for sure the RHD thing and of course keeping QHs happy also matters Edited March 13 by IBatch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 minute ago, IBatch said: The biggest difference of course, Dunn doesn't play with QHs. He is their top pairing. It's not bad though. They also don't have any state taxes. You could be right. My primitive math above based off Dunn's deal lands at $8M AAV. So if we're offering him $8M x 8, there's pretty much no team that will match that. $8M x 8 = $64M Other teams max term is 7 years. So... $64M / 7 = $9.14M AAV ! Yes, there's always the state tax factor, but it didn't really factor that much into Petey's deal (if at all), so I'll assume we'll be ok here too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captkirk888 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 hours ago, wai_lai416 said: playoff is irrelevant.. Hronek carried his own line in detroit.. you can't say Hronek doesn't carry his own line when he was never even given a chance to do that.. they literally put him with hughes since game 1 coz they worked so well together. Hronek was basically avg similar ppg in detroit without hughes with inferior forwards.. and sergachev signed coming off a 38 point season.. not 64 lol get ur fact straight... and if anything sergachev is a 2nd pairing defenceman behind hedman So you’re saying Hronek should get 8.5/yr? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
testycal Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Spoiler I think Tanev for free, receive value in trade returning will be just fine...too many top end contracts... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baratheon Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Bob Long said: Myers was really overpaid tho, not sure thats a fair comp. 6.75 is fair if its an 8 year term, given how much certainty that gives the player over the rest of his career. Could he go get a shorter deal with higher AAV, sure maybe by at bit. But you're just an injury away from losing a lot of money in this league. Right shot defenseman often do get overpaid. I'm sure Hronek and his agent are aware of this. 59 minutes ago, spook007 said: Is he not RFA? Yep but it provides me with no comfort. He can take a QO and ride shotgun with Hughes for a year. It's all negotiations obviously but Hronek is coming from a position of strength. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammertime Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 hours ago, wai_lai416 said: playoff is irrelevant.. Hronek carried his own line in detroit.. you can't say Hronek doesn't carry his own line when he was never even given a chance to do that.. they literally put him with hughes since game 1 coz they worked so well together. Hronek was basically avg similar ppg in detroit without hughes with inferior forwards.. and sergachev signed coming off a 38 point season.. not 64 lol get ur fact straight... and if anything sergachev is a 2nd pairing defenceman behind hedman Lost me with your first sentence. If you think playoff performance is irrelevant in contract negotiations I don't know what to tell you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I think Hronek's camp will await the new Hanifin deal with VGK to be completed. It will set the floor for Hronek's new deal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/11/2024 at 11:18 PM, PhillipBlunt said: I think Hronek will end up signing around $6.75M a year. The other priority signings from what I understand are Zadorov, Joshua, and Blueger. Lindholm if he’s reasonable. Re-signing Myers is decent but nothing higher than $2.5M per season. On 3/12/2024 at 1:55 AM, JeremyCuddles said: This blueline hasn't looked this good since 2011. Coincidentally during a time where Myers is injured. I wouldn't bring Myers back at league min. Botch used to have this bit 'getting drunk on Biega', and I wonder if we are sort of getting drunk on Myers with the teams improved structure. He's played better (and had some spectacular goals/moments), but he still takes penalties & make mistakes. To me if they replaced Myers with Tanev tommorrow I like the defense significantly more, so I think we should be looking to upgrade our #2 RD. As a 5/6 he'd be a great luxury, but given our cap situation I struggle seeing it makes sense at more than 2M. Ideally 1-1.5M, and he could certainly get more than that. Idk we'll see, if I'm betting.. they'll bring him back between 3-4M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, HKSR said: If/when a deal is struck, it'll almost certainly be between $7M to $8M. Personally I think it'll be on the higher end, if not $8M on the dot. Vince Dunn is the perfect comparable. - Signed his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 203lbs able to play LD or RD. - Signed his deal coming off a 14 goal, 64 point season in 81 games. - Drafted 2nd Round, 56 OA. Filip Hronek - Will sign his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 183lbs RHD - Will sign his deal coming off a 6 goal, 56 point season in 81 games (on pace). - Drafted 2nd Round, 53 OA. RHD will give Hronek a bit of a premium, but Dunn is a capable LHD that can play the right side, so the premium is less when comparing the two (+$500k). Dunn was more productive his final year before signing his deal, so based on production, Hronek should get a touch less (-$250k). Using 8.8% as a starting point = $7.72M + $500k - $250k = $7.97M ... let's round it to an even $8M AAV. Idk, Dunn was clearly Seattle's #1D. Hronek is clearly not that here. I think Dunn had a more impactful season than Hronek despite the #'s being similar. I think 6.5-7M is a good range for the team, if they do a max term deal maybe he would take something around there, which, while having some risk like all 8 yr deals, wouldn't be horrible given his age. If he wants 8x8 you have to move on, as much as I love him here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 6 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said: Idk, Dunn was clearly Seattle's #1D. Hronek is clearly not that here. I think Dunn had a more impactful season than Hronek despite the #'s being similar. I think 6.5-7M is a good range for the team, if they do a max term deal maybe he would take something around there, which, while having some risk like all 8 yr deals, wouldn't be horrible given his age. If he wants 8x8 you have to move on, as much as I love him here. You can't use position on a team as the indicator of value. Taking it to the extreme, it's like giving Jan Ruuta in SJ additional credit because he's their top defenceman this year and therefore more 'impactful'. End of the day Rutta is still worth what he is because of his production and TOI. Dunn this year = 23:15 ATOI Hronek this year = 23:43 ATOI There's absolutely no way Hronek's deal will be under $7M. Simply not gonna happen given his production and his position (RHD) against his comparables. Walking away from him at $8M AAV wouldn't be wise. As the contract ages, it'll be equivalent to a $7.xx AAV deal. It'll age nicely IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said: Botch used to have this bit 'getting drunk on Biega', and I wonder if we are sort of getting drunk on Myers with the teams improved structure. He's played better (and had some spectacular goals/moments), but he still takes penalties & make mistakes. To me if they replaced Myers with Tanev tommorrow I like the defense significantly more, so I think we should be looking to upgrade our #2 RD. As a 5/6 he'd be a great luxury, but given our cap situation I struggle seeing it makes sense at more than 2M. Ideally 1-1.5M, and he could certainly get more than that. Idk we'll see, if I'm betting.. they'll bring him back between 3-4M. I agree. If there are better players available in the offseason, Alvin should look at them over Myers. Adding a true 2nd pairing right handed defenseman is key. Based on what Alvin has already done, I can't see him offering anything more than $2M to Myers. Offering him $4M is a Benning move. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highstickin Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 10 minutes ago, HKSR said: You can't use position on a team as the indicator of value. Taking it to the extreme, it's like giving Jan Ruuta in SJ additional credit because he's their top defenceman this year and therefore more 'impactful'. End of the day Rutta is still worth what he is because of his production and TOI. Dunn this year = 23:15 ATOI Hronek this year = 23:43 ATOI There's absolutely no way Hronek's deal will be under $7M. Simply not gonna happen given his production and his position (RHD) against his comparables. Walking away from him at $8M AAV wouldn't be wise. As the contract ages, it'll be equivalent to a $7.xx AAV deal. It'll age nicely IMO. I agree with your point about Rutta, but does that same kind of philosophy also not apply to players whose numbers are inflated by playing on better teams/with better D-partners? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 minute ago, Highstickin said: I agree with your point about Rutta, but does that same kind of philosophy also not apply to players whose numbers are inflated by playing on better teams/with better D-partners? It does, but Hronek has already shown his production was similar on Detroit with a much weaker roster overall. Before Vancouver acquired him, Hronek had 9 goals and 38 points in 60 games with DET -- on pace for 12 goals and 52 points in 82 games. After Vancouver acquired him, Hronek has 5 goals and 45 points in 66 games this year -- on pace for 6 goals and 56 points in 82 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Crossbar Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, HKSR said: If/when a deal is struck, it'll almost certainly be between $7M to $8M. Personally I think it'll be on the higher end, if not $8M on the dot. Vince Dunn is the perfect comparable. - Signed his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 203lbs able to play LD or RD. - Signed his deal coming off a 14 goal, 64 point season in 81 games. - Drafted 2nd Round, 56 OA. Filip Hronek - Will sign his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 183lbs RHD - Will sign his deal coming off a 6 goal, 56 point season in 81 games (on pace). - Drafted 2nd Round, 53 OA. RHD will give Hronek a bit of a premium, but Dunn is a capable LHD that can play the right side, so the premium is less when comparing the two (+$500k). Dunn was more productive his final year before signing his deal, so based on production, Hronek should get a touch less (-$250k). Using 8.8% as a starting point = $7.72M + $500k - $250k = $7.97M ... let's round it to an even $8M AAV. Nice post! Good comparable. I think you might be onto something here. Hronek will be a bit of a premium. $8M AAV isn't outrageous. If we get under that, great! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 hours ago, spook007 said: Is he not RFA? You bet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12 hours ago, The Duke said: We’re going to do this with every player on an expiring contract, aren’t we? Who’s next, Joshua? Work ourselves into a lather when Dhaliwal reports he wants 4+ with term. Of course, what's CFF without a bit of panic? 2 hours ago, HKSR said: If/when a deal is struck, it'll almost certainly be between $7M to $8M. Personally I think it'll be on the higher end, if not $8M on the dot. Vince Dunn is the perfect comparable. - Signed his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 203lbs able to play LD or RD. - Signed his deal coming off a 14 goal, 64 point season in 81 games. - Drafted 2nd Round, 56 OA. Filip Hronek - Will sign his deal at 26yo. - 6'0" 183lbs RHD - Will sign his deal coming off a 6 goal, 56 point season in 81 games (on pace). - Drafted 2nd Round, 53 OA. RHD will give Hronek a bit of a premium, but Dunn is a capable LHD that can play the right side, so the premium is less when comparing the two (+$500k). Dunn was more productive his final year before signing his deal, so based on production, Hronek should get a touch less (-$250k). Using 8.8% as a starting point = $7.72M + $500k - $250k = $7.97M ... let's round it to an even $8M AAV. I wouldn't be surprised by 8M, I think those expecting 7M or less are probably out to lunch though 7.5-7.75 is probs the sweet spot, maybe a little more Folks are focusing too much on his being an RFA when it's UFA years that the Canucks will be buying, it's not like he's a 22-23 year-old RFA 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, HKSR said: I think Hronek's camp will await the new Hanifin deal with VGK to be completed. It will set the floor for Hronek's new deal. And this will likely favour Hronek's side because tax shenanigans will drive Hanifin's cap hit down, Canucks will end up having to pay more to give him equivalent pay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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