[REPORT] Canucks make contract offer to Filip Hronek

[Elias Pettersson]

17 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

The big problem with this comparable is Dunn only signed a 4 year deal. 7.25M x 4 years. In this situation I think we are looking at a long-term deal, possibly max term, in order to bring the AAV down. The term difference changes the math entirely. If we are signing him for 3-4 years then I could see Dunn's being a comparable. But given we are likely going long I think Weegar is a recent RHD max-term signing that makes more sense at a baseline.

 

If we are using Weegar's percentage = 7.58, that's 6.6M based on next years cap.

 

 

Dunn signed at 7.35x4.  If you are trying to sign a player to an 8 year deal then the AAV goes up not down.  Dunn on an 8 year deal would have been over $8 million.  He took a shorter term deal to bet on himself and wait for the cap to hit $100 million.

 

I actually wouldn’t mind signing Hronek to the same 7.35x4 deal.  That pushes his deal to past when we have to re-sign Hughes.  In 4 years, if we haven’t won a cup then we can trade him at that time…

Edited March 14 by Elias Pettersson

[Gurn]

41 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

ya pretty much except maybe lindholm i think he'll price himself out of the market and with the rumors they wanted to flip him he might not want to be here anyways. the people that wanted to trade EP are now on the trade Hronek train if he refuse to sign for below market.. they rather get rid of star players and trade for lottery tickets and have money so they can end up overpaying other positions.

if boston comes in with an 8mil offer.. you are happy with a 25-32 pick a late 2nd and a late 3rd?

Yes, although it is more likely the nucks work a trade with the team that is putting in an offer.

And it is also very unlikely a team makes an offer anyway. Offers are made so seldom it's  almost bordering on collusion, but not quite,

 

[HKSR]

42 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

The big problem with this comparable is Dunn only signed a 4 year deal. 7.25M x 4 years. In this situation I think we are looking at a long-term deal, possibly max term, in order to bring the AAV down. The term difference changes the math entirely. If we are signing him for 3-4 years then I could see Dunn's being a comparable. But given we are likely going long I think Weegar is a recent RHD max-term signing that makes more sense at a baseline.

 

If we are using Weegar's percentage = 7.58, that's 6.6M based on next years cap.

 

That's fair in regards to Dunn, but I also ignored the tax differences completely.  I think it's realistic that Hronek will come in above Dunn due to 2 main things:

1. RHD Premium

2. Tax difference

 

Weegar signed at 28yo and lower production.  I'd expect Hronek to come in 1.0 to 1.5% higher in terms of CH%.

[N4ZZY]

53 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Pesce isn’t coming to Vancouver, so it’s a moot point.  Tanev wants $5 million.  I’d rather overpay for Hronek than pay Tanev $5 million.  There’s no way Myers is coming back unless he signs a team friendly deal.  $2.5-3 million tops if he wants to play in his hometown. 

 

At the end of the day, you re-sign your best and most important players and then fill in the gaps with ELC contracts and cheap UFA’s.  There is zero reason to split up arguably the best top pairing defensive duo in the entire NHL over $500k per year.  That would be insane…

Hopefully they can get a deal done quickly, but I think it's more likely that a deal gets done by the summer time, and if Hronek signs his QO, then management will work to find a deal to trade him. Hope he stays in blue, green and white. But the deal has to make sense for the team moving forward. Especially with that dreaded OEL cap hit coming into effect soon. ugh. 

 

[ABNuck]

20 minutes ago, HKSR said:

That's fair in regards to Dunn, but I also ignored the tax differences completely.  I think it's realistic that Hronek will come in above Dunn due to 2 main things:

1. RHD Premium

2. Tax difference

 

Weegar signed at 28yo and lower production.  I'd expect Hronek to come in 1.0 to 1.5% higher in terms of CH%.

 

Not much "tax difference" in real dollars (spending power) when you compare that to a roughly 40% bump in pay by playing in Canada vs USA. A player making 10mil in the US and paying 40% tax has 6mil in take home pay. A player making 10mil in Canada makes 14mil in CDN$ and even if he pays 50% tax he still takes home 7mil in CDN$. Now I know a lot of players have homes south of the border where they train in the off season, but even then living most of the year in Canada they can realize a lifestyle somewhat similar to their US counterparts. So I don't buy into the whole "tax difference" as a reason why players don't like playing in Canada (other than FLA & TEX due to their lack of state taxes...but hey, we have low taxes in Alberta too)...it might have more to do with intense hockey culture and the fact that if you hate winters, there's about a dozen teams in the NHL that are geographically located where you can wear shorts pretty much year round.

[HKSR]

7 minutes ago, ABNuck said:

 

Not much "tax difference" in real dollars (spending power) when you compare that to a roughly 40% bump in pay by playing in Canada vs USA. A player making 10mil in the US and paying 40% tax has 6mil in take home pay. A player making 10mil in Canada makes 14mil in CDN$ and even if he pays 50% tax he still takes home 7mil in CDN$. Now I know a lot of players have homes south of the border where they train in the off season, but even then living most of the year in Canada they can realize a lifestyle somewhat similar to their US counterparts. So I don't buy into the whole "tax difference" as a reason why players don't like playing in Canada (other than FLA & TEX due to their lack of state taxes...but hey, we have low taxes in Alberta too)...it might have more to do with intense hockey culture and the fact that if you hate winters, there's about a dozen teams in the NHL that are geographically located where you can wear shorts pretty much year round.

I don't think tax differences are about lifestyle when they're making multimillion dollar deals.  It's about the cumulative effect of the difference in tax over 7 or 8 years that adds up.

 

In your example, a 40% to 50% difference is 10%.  That's the bottomline.  A player making $10m a year would add up to be about $7m to $8m USD difference over the course of his contract.  That's a huge difference even for these professional athletes.  

 

We can all argue about the tax impact til we're blue in the face, but the proof is when you look at the actual salaries of the guys playing in low tax states and you clearly see they are pretty much all lower than places like Vancouver or Montreal.

[Elias Pettersson]

31 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I don't think tax differences are about lifestyle when they're making multimillion dollar deals.  It's about the cumulative effect of the difference in tax over 7 or 8 years that adds up.

 

In your example, a 40% to 50% difference is 10%.  That's the bottomline.  A player making $10m a year would add up to be about $7m to $8m USD difference over the course of his contract.  That's a huge difference even for these professional athletes.  

 

We can all argue about the tax impact til we're blue in the face, but the proof is when you look at the actual salaries of the guys playing in low tax states and you clearly see they are pretty much all lower than places like Vancouver or Montreal.

 

For someone like Petey who doesn’t live in the USA, he will get paid $15,600,000 CAD per year.  After tax that is still over $7 million.  If he played in Florida he would make around the same, about $7.3 million.  Petey lives in Vancouver and in Sweden, so the fact that his salary is in US dollars makes a huge difference to him.  At the end of the day, if a player is signing a long term deal in Vancouver, most likely they will live in Vancouver full time, over 183 days.  Even Miller bought a house in West Van…

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

For someone like Petey who doesn’t live in the USA, he will get paid $15,600,000 CAD per year.  After tax that is still over $7 million.  If he played in Florida he would make around the same, about $7.3 million.  Petey lives in Vancouver and in Sweden, so the fact that his salary is in US dollars makes a huge difference to him.  At the end of the day, if a player is signing a long term deal in Vancouver, most likely they will live in Vancouver full time, over 183 days.  Even Miller bought a house in West Van…

For Petey he would have roughly 7.2m CDN after taxes.

In Florida he would have about $7.4m USD after taxes.

 

The key factor is that exchange rate effects everything.  For example, the $100k car in Canada is $70k in the US.  So in terms of real spending power, because of the exchange rate on goods and services, Petey still loses out playing and living in Vancouver vs Florida.

[Elias Pettersson]

13 minutes ago, HKSR said:

For Petey he would have roughly 7.2m CDN after taxes.

In Florida he would have about $7.4m USD after taxes.

 

The key factor is that exchange rate effects everything.  For example, the $100k car in Canada is $70k in the US.  So in terms of real spending power, because of the exchange rate on goods and services, Petey still loses out playing and living in Vancouver vs Florida.

 

Petey isn’t buying a car in Florida. He’s buying a car in Vancouver with US dollars.  So that $100k car is only $70k to him.  Same with food and everything else.

 

One thing that nobody brings up is that a foreigner cannot buy a property in Vancouver.  So unless you are a permanent resident or a Canadian citizen you have to rent a place, throwing away more money. Petey probably has his PR card.  I’m assuming he has bought a nice bachelor pad in Vancouver. Hopefully one without an elevator…

Edited March 14 by Elias Pettersson

[HKSR]

8 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Petey isn’t buying a car in Florida. He’s buying a car in Vancouver with US dollars.  So that $100k car is only $70k to him.  Same with food and everything else.

 

One thing that nobody brings up is that a foreigner cannot buy a property in Vancouver.  So unless you are a permanent resident or a Canadian citizen you have to rent a place, throwing away more money. Petey probably has his PR card.  I’m assuming he has bought a nice bachelor pad in Vancouver. Hopefully one without an elevator…

We've already accounted for the exchange.  We know that with the tax differences AND the exchange, Petey would get around $7m CDN after taxes in Vancouver and around $7m USD after taxes in Florida. 

 

Then like I said, the exchange rate affects everything.  So if Petey uses that $7m CDN after taxes to buy stuff in Canada, it'll buy 30% less than if he spent his $7m USD buying stuff in the states (whether it's a car, food, clothing, technology, etc).  A $1 worth of goods in Canada is generally $0.70 in the US.

[Smashian Kassian]

17 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Dunn signed at 7.35x4.  If you are trying to sign a player to an 8 year deal then the AAV goes up not down.  Dunn on an 8 year deal would have been over $8 million.  He took a shorter term deal to bet on himself and wait for the cap to hit $100 million.

 

I actually wouldn’t mind signing Hronek to the same 7.35x4 deal.  That pushes his deal to past when we have to re-sign Hughes.  In 4 years, if we haven’t won a cup then we can trade him at that time…

 

Not necessarily. For example Dhaliwal mentioned today that the Canucks talked about a 5 year deal that would've been over 12M with Pettersson, but going long = more guaranteed $$$ and a lesser term. Same with JT Miller, if that was a 4 year deal it would've been way more than 8M AAV. Maybe in some cases, but in other cases where your buying prime UFA years on established players its the opposite.

 

In Dunn's case you might be right, but part of the Dunn calculation was that he had played like a legit #1D out of nowhere. The uncertainty in what he truly was played a part for both sides. In this case I don't think anyone is unsure of what Hronek is, a solid #2 or great #3.

 

I agree 7.35 x 4 wouldn't be bad, but in a % of cap calculation its actually 7.7M x 4. I'd rather go long, offer more guaranteed $$$ and bring it down. 

 

Keep in mind Hronek is cashing in off a career year, his contract prospects may never be this good. Taking a shorter term deal carries risk for him aswell, so maybe he'd play ball on AAV with more security. 

 

21 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Pesce isn’t coming to Vancouver, so it’s a moot point.  Tanev wants $5 million.  I’d rather overpay for Hronek than pay Tanev $5 million.  There’s no way Myers is coming back unless he signs a team friendly deal.  $2.5-3 million tops if he wants to play in his hometown. 

 

At the end of the day, you re-sign your best and most important players and then fill in the gaps with ELC contracts and cheap UFA’s.  There is zero reason to split up arguably the best top pairing defensive duo in the entire NHL over $500k per year.  That would be insane…

 

Regardless the specific players, the point stands; are you better getting a 7+7/10 or a 5+8/10? One guy only plays a 1/3 of the game.

 

I don't view it as splitting it up over 500k. I agree that's not a hard bridge to gap, its more if they think he's worth 8-8.5 and you think he's worth 6.5-7. That's a significant gulf. Nvm the implications for attempting to set an internal cap so this team can compete in the long-run. That's another consideration. 

 

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

That's fair in regards to Dunn, but I also ignored the tax differences completely.  I think it's realistic that Hronek will come in above Dunn due to 2 main things:

1. RHD Premium

2. Tax difference

 

Weegar signed at 28yo and lower production.  I'd expect Hronek to come in 1.0 to 1.5% higher in terms of CH%.

 

Well its all the negotiation of it.

 

Like I say above, its also Hronek's best opportunity to cash in. If he's trying to secure the bag is he going to have a better season than this one if he goes to arb & gets traded? If he's going for total dollars he can get 50+ million by going 8 years with the Canucks (at an AAV the Canucks are more comfortable with) or try elsewhere. Even if he got 8M x 4 (like Dunn) he'd be taking on risk in the long run as opposed to taking something closer to the Weegar deal.

[Iron Fist]

Stever Yzerman traded Hronek halfway through the second year of a bridge deal. They obviously discussed long term deals. He knew he wasn't down to pay him what he wanted otherwise why would you trade a 26 year old offensive defenseman

Edited March 14 by Iron Fist

[wai_lai416]

 

2 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Not necessarily. For example Dhaliwal mentioned today that the Canucks talked about a 5 year deal that would've been over 12M with Pettersson, but going long = more guaranteed $$$ and a lesser term. Same with JT Miller, if that was a 4 year deal it would've been way more than 8M AAV. Maybe in some cases, but in other cases where your buying prime UFA years on established players its the opposite.

 

In Dunn's case you might be right, but part of the Dunn calculation was that he had played like a legit #1D out of nowhere. The uncertainty in what he truly was played a part for both sides. In this case I don't think anyone is unsure of what Hronek is, a solid #2 or great #3.

 

I agree 7.35 x 4 wouldn't be bad, but in a % of cap calculation its actually 7.7M x 4. I'd rather go long, offer more guaranteed $$$ and bring it down. 

 

Keep in mind Hronek is cashing in off a career year, his contract prospects may never be this good. Taking a shorter term deal carries risk for him aswell, so maybe he'd play ball on AAV with more security. 

 

 

Regardless the specific players, the point stands; are you better getting a 7+7/10 or a 5+8/10? One guy only plays a 1/3 of the game.

 

I don't view it as splitting it up over 500k. I agree that's not a hard bridge to gap, its more if they think he's worth 8-8.5 and you think he's worth 6.5-7. That's a significant gulf. Nvm the implications for attempting to set an internal cap so this team can compete in the long-run. That's another consideration. 

 

 

Well its all the negotiation of it.

 

Like I say above, its also Hronek's best opportunity to cash in. If he's trying to secure the bag is he going to have a better season than this one if he goes to arb & gets traded? If he's going for total dollars he can get 50+ million by going 8 years with the Canucks (at an AAV the Canucks are more comfortable with) or try elsewhere. Even if he got 8M x 4 (like Dunn) he'd be taking on risk in the long run as opposed to taking something closer to the Weegar deal.

what is the risk? 8m x 4? 32mil? + prolly 7-8mil in aribitration? so 5 years at around 40mil? so unless he completely disappear off the face of the earth at 31 year old.. i'm sure he will get more than 10mil in 3 years easy with the cap prolly closer to 100mil by that time

[NorthWestNuck]

9 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Dunn signed at 7.35x4.  If you are trying to sign a player to an 8 year deal then the AAV goes up not down.  Dunn on an 8 year deal would have been over $8 million.  He took a shorter term deal to bet on himself and wait for the cap to hit $100 million.

 

I actually wouldn’t mind signing Hronek to the same 7.35x4 deal.  That pushes his deal to past when we have to re-sign Hughes.  In 4 years, if we haven’t won a cup then we can trade him at that time…

It’s never usually that way, typically a player will leave money on the table for long term security in a longer contract and so AAV goes down. There are of course exceptions, but typically longer term usually means lower cap hit…

[wai_lai416]

44 minutes ago, NorthWestNuck said:

It’s never usually that way, typically a player will leave money on the table for long term security in a longer contract and so AAV goes down. There are of course exceptions, but typically longer term usually means lower cap hit…

that's not true AAV goes up for max term deal if it ends around age 33-34 aav goes down if it's a max term deal that ends around 37-38 reason being your contract ends at the tail end of ur prime and u ain't paying a premium for his declining years vs you are still paying a premium for the next 3-4 years for a guy that's in his decline

[Elias Pettersson]

4 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

that's not true AAV goes up for max term deal if it ends around age 33-34 aav goes down if it's a max term deal that ends around 37-38 reason being your contract ends at the tail end of ur prime and u ain't paying a premium for his declining years vs you are still paying a premium for the next 3-4 years for a guy that's in his decline

 

Exactly.  If you are paying for a player from age 26-34, you are paying MORE on the AAV on a long term deal, not less.  Miller took less because we are paying him until age 37, so that last 2-3 years he will probably be overpaid...

[N4ZZY]

15 hours ago, ABNuck said:

if you hate winters, there's about a dozen teams in the NHL that are geographically located where you can wear shorts pretty much year round.

In Canada, Vancouver's pretty much the only NHL city that has mild winters compared to the rest of the country. Calgary? Snow. Winnipeg? Definitely snow. Toronto? Cold. Ottawa? Let's not even go there. So if players wanted to play in an intense hockey market, and have a mild winter to boot, then Vancouver's really their only choice. 

 

[Goose]

I just hope Hronek doesnt get too high on himself.  He reminds me a lot of Z Hyman actually.  Really good player whose production is skyrocketing playing w elite player.  On his own or w/o McDavid tho would he be worth his current production?  Nah.  Same w Hronek.

Edited March 14 by AngryGoose

[N4ZZY]

4 minutes ago, AngryGoose said:

I just hope Hronek doesnt get too high on himself.  He reminds me a lot of Z Hyman actually.  Really good player whose production is skyrocketing playing w elite player.  On his own or w/o McDavid tho would he be worth his current production?  Nah.  Same w Hronek.

let’s hope he doesn’t get too high on himself. The problem is that most athletes see themselves quite high. Like if the outside noise is saying he’s only producing because of Quinn. He’s more likely to believe that he can produce apart from Hughes. I do think that playing with Quinn obviously pumps his stats. So I think if Hronek were to play apart from Hughes. His numbers would definitely drop. How much? Dunno. 

[Goose]

18 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

let’s hope he doesn’t get too high on himself. The problem is that most athletes see themselves quite high. Like if the outside noise is saying he’s only producing because of Quinn. He’s more likely to believe that he can produce apart from Hughes. I do think that playing with Quinn obviously pumps his stats. So I think if Hronek were to play apart from Hughes. His numbers would definitely drop. How much? Dunno. 

 

hopefully the Canucks/Aqualini can do something similar like they did w EP (bonuses) that help persuade him not to fight over 7-8 million (over the entire length of his contract).  He’s has a good situation here playing w Hughes so hopefully all parties can get something theyre happy w

[kettlevalley]

Maybe someone can explain to me why the Hronek comparable is not Devon Toews.  

[spook007]

1 hour ago, N4ZZY said:

let’s hope he doesn’t get too high on himself. The problem is that most athletes see themselves quite high. Like if the outside noise is saying he’s only producing because of Quinn. He’s more likely to believe that he can produce apart from Hughes. I do think that playing with Quinn obviously pumps his stats. So I think if Hronek were to play apart from Hughes. His numbers would definitely drop. How much? Dunno. 

Issue is also, he is likely never going to get a better opportunity to cash in on a top contract... This is definitely, what his agent is going to tell him.

[Dr. Crossbar]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Exactly.  If you are paying for a player from age 26-34, you are paying MORE on the AAV on a long term deal, not less.  Miller took less because we are paying him until age 37, so that last 2-3 years he will probably be overpaid...

 

A monkey could point this out on a chalkboard.

[PhillipBlunt]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

 

A monkey could point this out on a chalkboard.

[Highstickin]

29 minutes ago, kettlevalley said:

Maybe someone can explain to me why the Hronek comparable is not Devon Toews.  

Two main reasons I see are age (Toews is 3 years older) and Toews is a left shot vs Hronek being right shot.