Baratheon Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 4 minutes ago, HKSR said: We will never agree on this. We've gone through this enough. The only comparable you could find out of ALL the RHD in the entire league that produce at the rate that Hronek does that got under $7M is a 30 year old Weegar (FOUR years older than Hronek). I have no idea how you could begin to argue that Hronek gets $6.xx AAV. The amount of evidence that he WILL get over $7M is overwhelmingly in his favour. Put it another way, if Hronek was a UFA this summer, you couldn't possibly believe in your mind that he would get $6.5M lmao. I WANT stawns to be right but it has never made sense to me. Aside from everything else that you’ve mentioned, the cap will be higher than when any of the previous RHD signings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 8 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said: The way I see this is that the value we get from Hughes and Hronek in the coming years exceeds the value we'd get from Hronek carrying his own line. I get the conventional thought of wanting Hronek to carry his own line but the real value is Hronek creating room for Hughes to be Hughes, which we've seen this year. I think we're better off focusing on the value of our top duo becoming even better together - freeing that up - rather than measuring this against whether Hronek can carry another pairing. That's also not factoring in value in the fact that Hronek's an RHD and fits within our current window. On a certain level of paying and risking for value, it's kind of like how JR and Allvin approached the Miller extension, also against the argument of a potential decline, in that you're banking on getting more and most of the value in the first four years, as much as you can for as long as you can. So the real value is/was having Miller being most productive in the first half of his contract and taking a calculated risk on the second half, and that being all worth what you pay. So in Hronek's case, the real value is locking in Hughes and Hronek (a known, proven top of the league entity now) and getting the most out of our contending caliber duo for Hughes's remaining contract on the cheap knowing how valuable they will be as they get even better. So, you're paying for the known of the duo and allowing them to increase their value knowing what that will be worth ... instead of breaking them up, forcing them to do more than they should, and rely on the unknown. Like the Miller contract, though, this is all about making the team better. So this Hronek contract needs to be fair so they can actually make the team better cap-wise. Yeah, I'm not as hung up on Hronek driving his own pairing if the goal is to largely keep him with Hughes. Every team in the league would like 40+ point players on each top four pairing, most teams don't have it though. Let's take a look at some of the current highest scoring teams. The Avs don't, the highest point producing after Makar and Toews is Walker with 27 points. Then it's Manson with 23. The Rangers don't, the only D with 30 points or more not named Fox is Gustaffson. Carolina's close, Skjei has 42 and Burns has 39. Toronto has Reilly with 51 and no other D with 30 or more. Tampa has Hedman with 71 and not a single other D with 30 or more. Maybe they would if Sergachev was healthy all season but he hasn't been. Dallas has two 40+ D but they both play on the same pairing. Nobody else with 30+. Same goes for Edmonton, both Ekholm and Bouchard play together. Boston has one guy with 40+ points. Florida doesn't have a single D with 40+ points. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 7 minutes ago, HKSR said: We will never agree on this. We've gone through this enough. The only comparable you could find out of ALL the RHD in the entire league that produce at the rate that Hronek does that got under $7M is a 30 year old Weegar (FOUR years older than Hronek). I have no idea how you could begin to argue that Hronek gets $6.xx AAV. The amount of evidence that he WILL get over $7M is overwhelmingly in his favour. Put it another way, if Hronek was a UFA this summer, you couldn't possibly believe in your mind that he would get $6.5M lmao. He may very get that on the open market. I don't think he's worth that, or at least hasn't proven that yet. I don't want to pay that kind of dough for passes across the blue line to hughes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, Baratheon said: I WANT stawns to be right but it has never made sense to me. Aside from everything else that you’ve mentioned, the cap will be higher than when any of the previous RHD signings. I think we actually ALL want Stawns to be right in this instance. It'd be a significant cap savings, but the evidence is just overwhelming. Hronek will get over $7M. Just hoping it'll be in the low $7M range and not the high end. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, stawns said: He may very get that on the open market. I don't think he's worth that, or at least hasn't proven that yet. I don't want to pay that kind of dough for passes across the blue line to hughes The fact he would get that on the open market, and you refute it with your personal opinion like it supercedes MARKET VALUE is a true testament to your arrogance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 13 minutes ago, stawns said: Aside from a great half season where he has to frame it around Hughes, I'm not really sure his counter argument would be for an elite dman payday I dunno, I suppose that depends on what you consider to be elite D money, which is something that's pretty subjective. I reckon he'll get somewhere between 7-8M, now that we've exited the dead-cap Covid era I don't really think that'll be elite D money going forward. Dahlin just got 11M, Hughes and Makar will likely get 12M+ when they're due, Dobson will probably get 10M+ sooner than later. I think it'll be standard for #1D to get closer to 10-12M+ and 2-3 guys to get a bit less going forward now that the cap is rising again, which is exactly where Hronek will fall. Edited April 2 by Coconuts 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 4 minutes ago, HKSR said: The fact he would get that on the open market, and you refute it with your personal opinion like it supercedes MARKET VALUE is a true testament to your arrogance. Having a different opinion than you is arrogance? The insecurity there, yikes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, Coconuts said: I dunno, I suppose that depends on what you consider to be elite D money, which is something that's pretty subjective. I reckon he'll get somewhere between 7-8M, now that we've exited the dead-cap Covid era I don't really think that'll be elite D money going forward. Dahlin just got 11M, Hughes and Makar will likely get 12M+ when they're due, Dobson will probably get 10M+ sooner than later. I think it'll be standard for #1D to get closer to 10-12M and 2-3 guys to get a bit less, which is exactly where Hronek will fall. Exactly. $7M to $8M for a top pairing defenceman is really not that much anymore. The true ELITE defencemen will get $10M+ now. If Hughes or Makar were to re-sign this season, they'd be breaking the $12M to $13M barrier without a doubt. The money we're talking about for Hronek is 40% less than that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Crossbar Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 25 minutes ago, RWJC said: Agreed but the caveat is you’re talking value from past to now with more cap space and amenable options. We may have less in the future, especially as a contending team that is only so because it can keep its core group together under an internal cap structure while also squeezing everything it can out of what become value contracts. FH is a value contract right now…maybe not necessarily so after his extension. More like “on par” value. When you lose quality depth in order to service the consumer cap space, you have to again create that value from somewhere. On D, the easiest and most realistic option is to perhaps spread the wealth going forward. OEL cap hit is substantial when d trying to accommodate and repeat a successful formula. I have faith in mgmt, but I sure hope we can obtain a new QH partner that is efficient so that we can effectively double up on the overall quality of our D rather than hope players to continue to play up or above their pay grade in order to facilitate continued success. Regardless, an extended FH does provide flexibility with the pairings and I’d love to him and QH drive the backend for the next few years together…just not sure it’s going to be feasibly achieve given cap restraints. Hope I’m wrong I get what you're saying, I do, and I don't think you're wrong, but I'm talking about the value of the duo right now and into the future and not looking at the other options because we already what we need as far as a young RHD and top contending caliber duo to compete in this window. They been one of the best in the league. That's known, so looking for something more amenable is unnecessary. The success of Hughes-Hronek is a huge "check" on the list for me. After all we've been through, our struggles to improve our blueline, our need for a top pairing, I'm more of the thought that you don't throw that away for an unknown. So, everything that enters the "if " and "we may" doesn't factor in for me on that. There's no need. We have Hughes and Hronek. We have our partner. It's here now. Rather than focusing on how things could be different, I think our focus should be on finding the better amenable options in the second and third pairings so our depth is solid. Leave the top duo alone. I think this will be more like the Miller contract in value as it ages and the cap increases. Perhaps even better in value because Hronek is on the younger end. Hey, I could be completely wrong, could have egg on my face, but I'm all in on Hughes and Hronek. Edited April 2 by Dr. Crossbar 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, stawns said: Having a different opinion than you is arrogance? The insecurity there, yikes Insecurity over what? That doesn't even make sense. You said: 8 minutes ago, stawns said: He may very get that on the open market. I don't think he's worth that, or at least hasn't proven that yet. The fact he would get the $7M+ on the open market, but you then say you don't think he has proven that or you don't think he's worth that tells me that you truly believe your opinion is more valid than what the open market dictates. That's arrogance on your end. MOST people would commit to the fact that the open market drives the value of a player. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, HKSR said: Insecurity over what? That doesn't even make sense. You said: The fact he would get the $7M+ on the open market, but you then say you don't think he has proven that or you don't think he's worth that tells me that you truly believe your opinion is more valid than what the open market dictates. That's arrogance on your end. MOST people would commit to the fact that the open market drives the value of a player. I don't think he is, but there always desperate GM's with cap space who will over pay. I don't think he'd get that from a playoff team. Par for the course for a group of people who struggle with people who have differing opinions from their own and make personal insults to soothe their own insecurities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 12 minutes ago, HKSR said: Exactly. $7M to $8M for a top pairing defenceman is really not that much anymore. The true ELITE defencemen will get $10M+ now. If Hughes or Makar were to re-sign this season, they'd be breaking the $12M to $13M barrier without a doubt. The money we're talking about for Hronek is 40% less than that. Comparables are also a tricky thing because contract extensions are largely tied to current cap realities. Age, RFA status, UFA status, the buying of UFA yars, there's a lot that goes into hammering out an extension. It's why the argument that Hronek shouldn't make more than Hughes falls on deaf ears with me, the cap realities are different now than they were when we signed Hughes back in 2021. How do you argue that a deal signed in October, 2021 is the gold standard in 2024? It doesn't work. Soft or hard internal caps don't really operate the way folks would like them to most of the time. There was a lot of arguing that Pettersson shouldn't make more than Miller, it never made any sense given factors such as age, production, a rising cap, ect. Top end players always get the lions share of cap increases, it's the way she goes. 1D see larger boosts, so do 2-3D. Things shift, all folks have to do is go back and look what the top D were making back in the 2000's and 2010's. One has to factor for the cap having grown significantly but still. Edited April 2 by Coconuts 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, stawns said: I don't think he is, but there always desperate GM's with cap space who will over pay. I don't think he'd get that from a playoff team. Par for the course for a group of people who struggle with people who have differing opinions from their own and make personal insults to soothe their own insecurities You can argue it's desperate GMs, but I'd argue that professional General Managers of multi-million to multi-billion dollar franchises in the NHL know a thing or two more than you do. For you to come along and say YOU don't think X player has proven his value for the open market is arrogance. Par for the course that an individual on a hockey forum thinks he knows better than the collective minds of 32 NHL General Managers and deny facts and deflect to fulfill their narcissistic tendencies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Crossbar Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 17 minutes ago, Coconuts said: Yeah, I'm not as hung up on Hronek driving his own pairing if the goal is to largely keep him with Hughes. Every team in the league would like 40+ point players on each top four pairing, most teams don't have it though. Let's take a look at some of the current highest scoring teams. The Avs don't, the highest point producing after Makar and Toews is Walker with 27 points. Then it's Manson with 23. The Rangers don't, the only D with 30 points or more not named Fox is Gustaffson. Carolina's close, Skjei has 42 and Burns has 39. Toronto has Reilly with 51 and no other D with 30 or more. Tampa has Hedman with 71 and not a single other D with 30 or more. Maybe they would if Sergachev was healthy all season but he hasn't been. Dallas has two 40+ D but they both play on the same pairing. Nobody else with 30+. Same goes for Edmonton, both Ekholm and Bouchard play together. Boston has one guy with 40+ points. Florida doesn't have a single D with 40+ points. After a full-season, I'm thinking they likely know the primary option and real value is in them together. The great thing is that Hronek can always improve upon the secondary option of carrying his line when needed as the contract evolves. That is actually fluid and not absolute. And with Foote and Gonchar leading the D, that has value. Thanks for listing those out. Correct me if I'm wrong but Makar and Toews would be the closest to what we have in our duo. And Toews isn't carrying his own line. That pairing is gold! The numbers show that we're fortunate to have Hughes and Hronek. There's no need to keep looking for greener grass on the top pairing. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 8 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said: After a full-season, I'm thinking they likely know the primary option and real value is in them together. The great thing is that Hronek can always improve upon the secondary option of carrying his line when needed as the contract evolves. That is actually fluid and not absolute. And with Foote and Gonchar leading the D, that has value. Thanks for listing those out. Correct me if I'm wrong but Makar and Toews would be the closest to what we have in our duo. And Toews isn't carrying his own line. That pairing is gold! The numbers show that we're fortunate to have Hughes and Hronek. There's no need to keep looking for greener grass on the top pairing. Makar and Toews would probably be the closest, yeah, if only because Makar and Hughes are each other's most direct comparable. Toews is a bit older, having just turned 30, and he's the superior player between him and Hronek, but his 45 points in 75 games isn't far off from Hronek's 46 in 74. The caveat is that Toews undoubtedly took a discount to stay in Colorado. He took a 7x7.25M deal when he easily could have gotten 8M+ via UFA. But it's a bit easier to get guys to take less when they've won a cup with you and will have legitimate opportunities to chase more if they stay. Lot of top teams around the league play their best D together, Hronek's the best RD option we currently have and acquiring a better one wouldn't be easy, or cheap. Paying him to play with Hughes is a good problem to have, if it's viewed as a problem at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boziffous Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Gustav Forsling who just signed an 8 year/$46 million last month would seem to be a pretty good comparable. Since the start of the 2021/22 season Gustav Forsling Games - 225 Goals - 33 Assists - 80 Points - 113 PP Pts - 7 +/- +106 Hits - 213 Blocks - 287 Shots - 496 ATOI - 22:17 Filip Hronek Games - 216 Goals - 19 Assists - 104 Points - 123 PP Pts - 34 +/- +10 Hits - 259 Blocks - 216 Shots - 395 ATOI - 22:27 Forsling got a NMC for the first 6 years of his new 8 year contract with the last 2 years both having an M-NTC for a 16 team no-trade list. Tax rate in Florida should make some difference as well. Forsling is about 17 months older than Hronek. Right handed premium for Hronek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, boziffous said: Gustav Forsling who just signed an 8 year/$46 million last month would seem to be a pretty good comparable. Since the start of the 2021/22 season Gustav Forsling Games - 225 Goals - 33 Assists - 80 Points - 113 PP Pts - 7 +/- +106 Hits - 213 Blocks - 287 Shots - 496 ATOI - 22:17 Filip Hronek Games - 216 Goals - 19 Assists - 104 Points - 123 PP Pts - 34 +/- +10 Hits - 259 Blocks - 216 Shots - 395 ATOI - 22:27 Forsling got a NMC for the first 6 years of his new 8 year contract with the last 2 years both having an M-NTC for a 16 team no-trade list. Tax rate in Florida should make some difference as well. Forsling is about 17 months older than Hronek. Right handed premium for Hronek? I could see that...and you're right about the differences: Tax Rate difference is about $1M, so let's give Hronek +750k to offset some of that. Nearly 1.5 years of age is significant enough to warrant a +500k difference IMO. RHD premium of +500k. So $5.75M + 750k + 500k + 500k = $7.5M. Right in the ball park. You could change those premiums up or down a little bit, but it'll likely land between $7M to $8M as most people are predicting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Crossbar Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Coconuts said: Makar and Toews would probably be the closest, yeah, if only because Makar and Hughes are each other's most direct comparable. Toews is a bit older, having just turned 30, and he's the superior player between him and Hronek, but his 45 points in 75 games isn't far off from Hronek's 46 in 74. The caveat is that Toews undoubtedly took a discount to stay in Colorado. He took a 7x7.25M deal when he easily could have gotten 8M+ via UFA. But it's a bit easier to get guys to take less when they've won a cup with you and will have legitimate opportunities to chase more if they stay. Lot of top teams around the league play their best D together, Hronek's the best RD option we currently have and acquiring a better one wouldn't be easy, or cheap. Paying him to play with Hughes is a good problem to have, if it's viewed as a problem at all. That's what I thought about Toews. Thanks. It's interesting for Hronek in that this is his window to be great. It's a big opportunity to not only be an integral pairing with a superstar on the rise but also cement his legacy on a rising contending team in their prime window. To do that, he'll need to be fair and have the team's success and potential in mind. Hopefully that matters. The guy has a huge opportunity in front of him both as a player and financially. Edited April 2 by Dr. Crossbar 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said: That's what I thought about Toews. Thanks. It's interesting for Hronek in that this is his window to be great. It's a big opportunity to not only be an integral pairing with a superstar on the rise but also cement his legacy on a rising contending team in their prime window. To do that, he'll need to be fair and have the team's success and potential in mind. Hopefully that matters. The guy has a huge opportunity in front of him both as a player and financially. During what some argue will be the Canucks best window no less. Which is basically before having to re-up Demko and Hughes, and while Miller is still playing at a high level. And maybe, the Canucks being competitive this season may help a bit, but ultimately most guys want to get paid too. The Stanley Cup is the hardest championship to win and taking less likely doesn't affect the odds much for most players. More than likely both sides will find middle ground, I'm not expecting Hronek to squeeze the Canucks for everything he can but I'm not expecting him to take a whole lot less than market value either. And certainly, he'd be hard pressed to find a better running mate than Hughes. Edited April 2 by Coconuts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rounoush Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 8 hours ago, Coryberg said: D Petey plays the left side. Whoops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1964 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 On 3/17/2024 at 10:18 AM, stawns said: I feel like he needs a stick or curve change and maybe a rocker adjustment on his skate. He doesn't seem confident with either. I don't know either, he's almost making McDavid etc money but he simply doesn't have the kind of drive to dominate or at least try to dominate every time he steps on the ice like McD does, even JTM has more drive and is paid less, I wouldn't have been disappointed at all had 40 been traded, especially for a number 1,.big, hard nosed, hard hitting, PMD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coryberg Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 6 hours ago, Chon derry said: Because he apperantly turned down 6.5 he’s all of sudden redundant ? Their not too far apart. I was just commenting on how it's impossible to say if he is or isn't a playoff performer because he hasn't played in the playoffs. I'm of the opinion that his deal will come in around 7.4 give or take 100k. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chon derry Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Coryberg said: I was just commenting on how it's impossible to say if he is or isn't a playoff performer because he hasn't played in the playoffs. I'm of the opinion that his deal will come in around 7.4 give or take 100k. I wasn't Disagreeing with your post but referring to others that said he wasn’t worth his ask. Edited April 3 by Chon derry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chon derry Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 4 minutes ago, Coryberg said: I was just commenting on how it's impossible to say if he is or isn't a playoff performer because he hasn't played in the playoffs. I'm of the opinion that his deal will come in around 7.4 give or take 100k. JR offered 6.5. Which isn’t to far off his ask. So clearly they know his worth. And I did say it was all bargaining tactics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cripplereh Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Well 6.5 is a good start. Guess by summer we will see what he wants and gets. Hope he signs decent or draft day might see something happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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