[ARTICLE] What it might take to sign Nikita Zadorov and if it makes sense for the Canucks

[GrammaInTheTub]

Everyone arguing that Zadorov isn’t a top 4 dman based on TOI is out to lunch. You’re arguing literally one extra shift in deployment while ignoring his effectiveness in other areas. Reading people’s posts here is worse than having to grade first year undergrad papers. 

Edited March 22 by GrammaInTheTub

[PureQuickness]

12 minutes ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

Everyone arguing that Zadorov isn’t a top 4 dman based on TOI is out to lunch. You’re arguing literally one extra shift in deployment while ignoring his effectiveness in other areas. Reading people’s posts here is worse than having to grade first year undergrad papers. 

 

Well that's a bit harsh. I think everyone will run into comments that they would never agree - and that's fine. That's a difference in opinion. But it is important to separate opinion from "fact". If you go to any social media website, you'll run into people like that.

[Chronic.Canuck]

15 minutes ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

Everyone arguing that Zadorov isn’t a top 4 dman based on TOI is out to lunch. You’re arguing literally one extra shift in deployment while ignoring his effectiveness in other areas. Reading people’s posts here is worse than having to grade first year undergrad papers. 

Lol we have not been ignoring his effectiveness. I've said multiple times I'm a fan of his play and style. But if not basing it on TOI then what determines if he's a Top 4 dman? Vibes?

 

Del Zotto and Stecher averaged 19-20 minutes a game here when we sucked. Did that make them quality top 4 defenseman?

[Coryberg]

39 minutes ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

Everyone arguing that Zadorov isn’t a top 4 dman based on TOI is out to lunch. You’re arguing literally one extra shift in deployment while ignoring his effectiveness in other areas. Reading people’s posts here is worse than having to grade first year undergrad papers. 

I'd say simple math would be your biggest hurdle.

[Mike Vanderhoek]

On 3/19/2024 at 8:54 AM, Elias Pettersson said:

Zadorov is the equivalent of Jamie Oleksiak who averaged under 16 minutes a night for his first 8 years in the NHL. Big Z has averaged over 18 minutes a night his entire career since he came into the league. 
 

Oleksiak is now averaging over 19 minutes a night into his 30’s. Zadorov should be able to do the same thing. 
 

So I have no issues giving him the Oleksiak contract. 4.6x5. 

 

He has averaged less than 18 mins a game in 7 of the 11 years in his career thus far. His 3rd lowest ATOI in his career has been this year in Vancouver AT 17:02 which puts him in 6th place among Canucks defensemen.

 

If he is asking for $ 5m per on a multi year deal I just don't see it. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

 

[Mike Vanderhoek]

25 minutes ago, Chronic.Canuck said:

Lol we have not been ignoring his effectiveness. I've said multiple times I'm a fan of his play and style. But if not basing it on TOI then what determines if he's a Top 4 dman? Vibes?

 

Del Zotto and Stecher averaged 19-20 minutes a game here when we sucked. Did that make them quality top 4 defenseman?

 

He is a solid defenseman absolutely. The coaching staff have shown more confidence in Cole and Myers to this point and the latter Tocchet absolutely loves.

[GrammaInTheTub]

We paid Myers $6M per in a lower cap era. There’s no way Zad doesn’t get at least the rumoured 5x5. 

[HKSR]

I don't think you can base deployment on a contender like the Canucks as the basis of what a player is.  Garland is a great example.  He's clearly a capable 2nd line (top 6 winger), but he played primarily 3rd line winger role here on Vancouver.  That doesn't make him a 3rd line player. 

 

Looking at defencemen for example, Orlov in Carolina is only playing 17min a night (on average).  Does that make him a 3rd pair guy?  Absolutely not.  He's clearly a top 4 guy being deployed differently on a contender with a solid mix of defencemen. 

 

Let's face it, the Canucks have 7 defencemen that are perfectly capable NHL quality defencemen.  Other than playing Hughes and Hronek for well over 20min a game, the other 5 guys get rotated in and out of the lineup and get deployed for different purposes.  Cole and Myers absolutely rack up more minutes because they PK more than Zadorov.  However, 5v5, their ATOI would be almost identical.

[Coryberg]

2 minutes ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

We paid Myers $6M per in a lower cap era. There’s no way Zad doesn’t get at least the rumoured 5x5. 

I'm sure there is some GM out there dumb enough to do it.

[Mike Vanderhoek]

9 minutes ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

We paid Myers $6M per in a lower cap era. There’s no way Zad doesn’t get at least the rumoured 5x5. 

 

Different management group at the time. Confidence in PA/JR to be more shrewd and ensure they make more responsible deals. As it stands now Hronek should be jumping on $ 6.875m per on a new deal, if the team has to up that number anywhere closer to $ 7.5m per that would definitely start being uncomfortable.

 

You likely see Cole back at around $ 2.5m and then its a saw off between Zadorov and Myers coming back in the $ 4m+ per range. If Myers wants term he goes to FA, if Zadorov wants $5m+ per he goes to FA.

[GrammaInTheTub]

I would be very happy with Zadorov at $4.5 for a 4+ year term. Like others, I would welcome Myers back at a $3 AAV for a couple years, but I suspect he also commands more in free agency. I really liked Cole’s game for the first 40 or so but his hitting game has disappeared a bit and he’s looking less effective at times than Juulsen; so, I’m fine moving on from Cole. He’s a valuable part of our back end this year, but going forward I just don’t see him in the picture. 

[Diamonds]

3 hours ago, GrammaInTheTub said:

We paid Myers $6M per in a lower cap era. There’s no way Zad doesn’t get at least the rumoured 5x5. 

We paid Myers $6M because of the UFA surcharge and the because previous management thought he could be a top pairing defenseman (this season is literally the first of his entire career where he is averaging less than 20min/game). We may not have always been happy with Myers, but during his time in Vancouver he's been consistently our highest minutes RD (yes, he even played more than Tanev his first season in Vancouver). He averaged over 21min/game his first four seasons in Vancouver and only this season has his ice time has finally been cut. As a side note I don't think it's a coincidence that now that Myers is averaging 19min/game instead of 21min/game+ he looks a lot steadier.

 

Myers was always considered a little overpayed right from the moment he was signed, but he's also been used as a top 4 (if not top 2) defenseman his entire career and therefore has been payed as such.

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, Diamonds said:

We paid Myers $6M because of the UFA surcharge and the because previous management thought he could be a top pairing defenseman (this season is literally the first of his entire career where he is averaging less than 20min/game). We may not have always been happy with Myers, but during his time in Vancouver he's been consistently our highest minutes RD (yes, he even played more than Tanev his first season in Vancouver). He averaged over 21min/game his first four seasons in Vancouver and only this season has his ice time has finally been cut. As a side note I don't think it's a coincidence that now that Myers is averaging 19min/game instead of 21min/game+ he looks a lot steadier.

 

Myers was always considered a little overpayed right from the moment he was signed, but he's also been used as a top 4 (if not top 2) defenseman his entire career and therefore has been payed as such.

 

Myers got paid because he was a 30-35 point pace D, with size, who can skate. Offense pays. Size (that can skate) pays. The rumours were all $7x7 contracts before we signed him. We actually signed him slightly below (open) market value.

 

Myers looks steadier because we have actual systems/puck support, and for the first time since Edler left, a complementary partner.

[Elias Pettersson]

4 hours ago, HKSR said:

I don't think you can base deployment on a contender like the Canucks as the basis of what a player is.  Garland is a great example.  He's clearly a capable 2nd line (top 6 winger), but he played primarily 3rd line winger role here on Vancouver.  That doesn't make him a 3rd line player. 

 

Looking at defencemen for example, Orlov in Carolina is only playing 17min a night (on average).  Does that make him a 3rd pair guy?  Absolutely not.  He's clearly a top 4 guy being deployed differently on a contender with a solid mix of defencemen. 

 

Let's face it, the Canucks have 7 defencemen that are perfectly capable NHL quality defencemen.  Other than playing Hughes and Hronek for well over 20min a game, the other 5 guys get rotated in and out of the lineup and get deployed for different purposes.  Cole and Myers absolutely rack up more minutes because they PK more than Zadorov.  However, 5v5, their ATOI would be almost identical.

 

This is an excellent point.  5v5 Zadorov's ice time is actually higher than Cole's.  All of Soucy, Cole, Myers and Zadorov play between 15:20-15:50 of ice time 5v5.  It's the PK time that separates Zadorov from the rest.  There is no reason why Tocchet can't deploy Zadorov more in a PK role in the future...

[Diamonds]

20 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

Myers got paid because he was a 30-35 point pace D, with size, who can skate. Offense pays. Size (that can skate) pays. The rumours were all $7x7 contracts before we signed him. We actually signed him slightly below (open) market value.

 

Myers looks steadier because we have actual systems/puck support, and for the first time since Edler left, a complementary partner.

Having a more complimentary partner for Myers definitely helps, but I also think his decision-making suffered when he played more minutes and was more tired. I think it's a combination of both. He's also now no longer getting double-shifted to get Hughes more 5-on-5 minutes since Hronek can actually play them all unlike Hughes' previous partners.

 

Also yes, the rumors were that we were offering $7M but I remember everyone (including the panelists of Sportsnet and TSN) thinking that would be an overpayment. The $6M was also discussed as being a possible overpayment but because it was thought that we were in a bidding war and because all the rumors were for $7M everyone was a little more okay with it. And yes, offense does pay.

[The Duke]

I remember the Myers 7x7 days.  Geez.  
 

And yeah, before Hronek, he was consistently our top minute RD.

 

For all the “chaos giraffe” brain farts, he’s had three pretty good years. First with Edler (bubble playoffs) and then with OEL’s first season… plus this one playing with Soucy or Zadorov.
 

His two other years were terrible, along with the rest of the team.  The disastrous “Canadian division” year and the one where Boudreau told the guys “fuck it, don’t play defence.” I know noones changing their mind on the guy anytime soon, but with a decent partner when the team wasn’t playing like complete ass he’s been solid.  Not 6 mil solid.  But somewhere around 4 solid.  

Edited March 23 by The Duke

[GrammaInTheTub]

2 hours ago, Diamonds said:

We paid Myers $6M because of the UFA surcharge and the because previous management thought he could be a top pairing defenseman (this season is literally the first of his entire career where he is averaging less than 20min/game). We may not have always been happy with Myers, but during his time in Vancouver he's been consistently our highest minutes RD (yes, he even played more than Tanev his first season in Vancouver). He averaged over 21min/game his first four seasons in Vancouver and only this season has his ice time has finally been cut. As a side note I don't think it's a coincidence that now that Myers is averaging 19min/game instead of 21min/game+ he looks a lot steadier.

 

Myers was always considered a little overpayed right from the moment he was signed, but he's also been used as a top 4 (if not top 2) defenseman his entire career and therefore has been payed as such.

Agreed on all your points and my post wasn’t intended to be a knock on Myers, but rather an internal comparable.

[SilentSam]

Just felt this thread needed the “bump” ..

 

I don’t think this team can afford to lose Zadorov to FAgency.….   And to get him signed during the playoffs to a term contract that makes him feel WANTED, and keeping  him as a “Template Player” for others coming up through the system would have added value with what the Big Man brings already.

 

Large Dmen like Z have great longevity and there should be no worry in signing him to a   6 yr contract.  
At 29 he is just priming ,  as good late bloomers do.

His fantastic shutdown / squeeze game on the boards is overshadowed by his tremendous presence and physical delivery.

      Z is fan-tastic 

 

[N4ZZY]

1 hour ago, SilentSam said:

Just felt this thread needed the “bump” ..

 

I don’t think this team can afford to lose Zadorov to FAgency.….   And to get him signed during the playoffs to a term contract that makes him feel WANTED, and keeping  him as a “Template Player” for others coming up through the system would have added value with what the Big Man brings already.

 

Large Dmen like Z have great longevity and there should be no worry in signing him to a   6 yr contract.  
At 29 he is just priming ,  as good late bloomers do.

His fantastic shutdown / squeeze game on the boards is overshadowed by his tremendous presence and physical delivery.

      Z is fan-tastic 

 

 

Again, I think the question always is at what cost? I just cannot see Allvin and Rutherford signing this guy to 6m, if that's what his agent and him are asking for. If he's looking for term, then how much is a reasonable cost? The big question mark is that the player itself has never really played in a top 4 role in a prolonged period of time. Can he sustain that? Would 4m over 5/6 years get it done with Zadorov? Or does he want more than that? If he wants more than that, I wonder if there's another team willing to offer him 5/5.5m over 6 years? To me, that's taking a huge risk. That's like paying Myers his last contract (6mx6 years). Can we even afford that? 

 

[The Duke]

1 hour ago, N4ZZY said:

 

Again, I think the question always is at what cost? I just cannot see Allvin and Rutherford signing this guy to 6m, if that's what his agent and him are asking for. If he's looking for term, then how much is a reasonable cost? The big question mark is that the player itself has never really played in a top 4 role in a prolonged period of time. Can he sustain that? Would 4m over 5/6 years get it done with Zadorov? Or does he want more than that? If he wants more than that, I wonder if there's another team willing to offer him 5/5.5m over 6 years? To me, that's taking a huge risk. That's like paying Myers his last contract (6mx6 years). Can we even afford that? 

 

Yeah. Canucks have some serious work to do on their back end next year since only Hughes, Soucy and Juulsen are under contract. 
 

One of the biggest barriers in bringing back Zadorov is that they have Hughes and Soucy on the left side already.  Obviously Hughes is elite and capable of playing a ton of minutes, while Soucy has been very good as well and also brings size.  
 

On the right side, Juulsen can slot in as a 6 but he’s a 15 min a night guy ATM so Allvin needs to know he needs at least one minute muncher above him. If they don’t think Hronek is that guy, or worth his price tag, then that’s 23:30 a night that needs to be replaced.  Myers looked a lot better this year in 19 a night, a lot less than his career minutes, but he was also 2nd in PK time.  First in PK time?  Cole. 
 

Back Zadorov, I think we’d all love to bring him back… but he’s not an ideal solution to the top 4 RHD or the PK.  He also doesn’t bring a lot of offense. I’d like to see us give him some term to keep the AAV down - getting him at 4.5 or under would be fabulous.  But even that would be costly for what’s essentially a 4/5 D man - and there’s some big holes to fill elsewhere. 

Edited April 28 by The Duke

[Alflives]

Fans Big Z is a pure rental. We stole him for only a third. He will go to the highest bidder this July. JR/PA will find a guy who brings what Z does for a lot less. He’s really not that special. 

[Coconuts]

 

2 hours ago, The Duke said:

Yeah. Canucks have some serious work to do on their back end next year since only Hughes, Soucy and Juulsen are under contract. 
 

One of the biggest barriers in bringing back Zadorov is that they have Hughes and Soucy on the left side already.  Obviously Hughes is elite and capable of playing a ton of minutes, while Soucy has been very good as well and also brings size.  
 

On the right side, Juulsen can slot in as a 6 but he’s a 15 min a night guy ATM so Allvin needs to know he needs at least one minute muncher above him. If they don’t think Hronek is that guy, or worth his price tag, then that’s 23:30 a night that needs to be replaced.  Myers looked a lot better this year in 19 a night, a lot less than his career minutes, but he was also 2nd in PK time.  First in PK time?  Cole. 
 

Back Zadorov, I think we’d all love to bring him back… but he’s not an ideal solution to the top 4 RHD or the PK.  He also doesn’t bring a lot of offense. I’d like to see us give him some term to keep the AAV down - getting him at 4.5 or under would be fabulous.  But even that would be costly for what’s essentially a 4/5 D man - and there’s some big holes to fill elsewhere. 

 

I think he could be a cap casualty, and I'm fine with that tbh. I like what Zadorov but I'm not interested in giving him 4.5M+ for 5+ years, I'd offer him a 4 year deal max. 

 

Soucy and Hughes are back as LD next next season and Soucy costs less. Canucks already need more punch in their top six and will be looking to probably keep Joshua. I'm not sure there's enough cap to keep everyone, even with Myers and Cole maybe not coming back. 

 

Pettersson's deal is kicking in, keep Joshua would necessitate a pretty solid raise. We probably need at least another top six player to with Pettersson, Miller, Boeser, and Hoglander. Suter shouldn't in the top six, Mikheyev's a middle six tweener at best. We probably don't keep Lindholm, I'd throw his money into the top six. Bluegar may be gone too, he'll need to be replaced with an NHL level body at least, I'd assume Suter slots into his spot if he walks. 

 

Myers is fine as an RD stopgap, one could probably have him on a 1-2 year deal to bridge between now and Willander stepping in. A short-term RD is what the Canucks should be looking for imo, whether that's Myers or someone else. 

 

If he's willing to take 4 years or less I'd be open to allocating some of the money to him, but Hronek's raise is also going to eat into what we actually have to give and he's likely a bigger priority for management than Zadorov. 

Edited April 28 by Coconuts

[NHL97OneTimer]

There's no better player that keeps the other team honest and he's not a liability at this point.  He's not worth $6M/yr, but if they can get him for $4.5M/y x 5 years, I'd say lock him up.  He and Joshua are key re-signings IMO.

[N4ZZY]

6 hours ago, The Duke said:

Yeah. Canucks have some serious work to do on their back end next year since only Hughes, Soucy and Juulsen are under contract. 
 

One of the biggest barriers in bringing back Zadorov is that they have Hughes and Soucy on the left side already.  Obviously Hughes is elite and capable of playing a ton of minutes, while Soucy has been very good as well and also brings size.  
 

On the right side, Juulsen can slot in as a 6 but he’s a 15 min a night guy ATM so Allvin needs to know he needs at least one minute muncher above him. If they don’t think Hronek is that guy, or worth his price tag, then that’s 23:30 a night that needs to be replaced.  Myers looked a lot better this year in 19 a night, a lot less than his career minutes, but he was also 2nd in PK time.  First in PK time?  Cole. 
 

Back Zadorov, I think we’d all love to bring him back… but he’s not an ideal solution to the top 4 RHD or the PK.  He also doesn’t bring a lot of offense. I’d like to see us give him some term to keep the AAV down - getting him at 4.5 or under would be fabulous.  But even that would be costly for what’s essentially a 4/5 D man - and there’s some big holes to fill elsewhere. 

Yeah, those are all good points, and makes sense. I mean, with what you've said, sounds like Zadorov might be the odd man out. But couldn't Soucy play the third pair, and you move Zadorov up to the second pairing LHD? 

 

I think Myers comes back to be honest. They can't afford to lose both Myers and Hronek. Hronek probably comes back through management qualifying him, but that means they're probably looking to trade him at that point because he's asking for way too much. The Canucks gave up a lot for Hronek, so I find it difficult that they would not bring him back. 

 

Zadorov to me is a lot like a defensive defenseman, much like Tanev was in his time here. Might not be as good defensively as Tanev was in his prime, but I find Zad better defensively than Myers (at least through the eye test, not sure about all the advanced statistics). 

 

[N4ZZY]

3 hours ago, NHL97OneTimer said:

There's no better player that keeps the other team honest and he's not a liability at this point.  He's not worth $6M/yr, but if they can get him for $4.5M/y x 5 years, I'd say lock him up.  He and Joshua are key re-signings IMO.

Joshua for sure. I'd also sign if Zadorov agrees to 4-4.5M/5 years. Not too long, but not short either.