[ARTICLE] What it might take to sign Nikita Zadorov and if it makes sense for the Canucks

[Coconuts]

30 minutes ago, The Duke said:

I doubt he goes 7 unless it’s for a seriously muted AAV - somewhere in the mid 4s.  
 

His ceiling is speculated at a 6x6 and the speculation is usually higher than the contract.  Even at that, total money on a 7 year deal that would be 5.15. 
 

I still think there’s something to be done in the 5 mil x 6 years range - and at that point I don’t see it as a bargain at all, though he would see it as a discount based on that speculation. 

 

Even six years seems like a bit much, if he's retained I'm hoping it's closer to 5x5M max, maybe up to 5.25M. 

 

I understand why folks like him and want him retained, but it seems like he's been mythologized a bit around these parts. 

[PhillipBlunt]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Looks like a deal is done. Should be announced tomorrow or sometime next week. 
 

Love you Big Z…

[CaptainCanuck12]

5 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Looks like a deal is done. Should be announced tomorrow or sometime next week. 
 

Love you Big Z…

[Elias Pettersson]

4 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

 

[PhillipBlunt]

Just now, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Where does one find out about the deal being done?

[ArmchairGM22]

11 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

Even six years seems like a bit much, if he's retained I'm hoping it's closer to 5x5M max, maybe up to 5.25M. 

 

I understand why folks like him and want him retained, but it seems like he's been mythologized a bit around these parts. 

I think it’s more about the unique traits he brings to THIS group. 
 

I don’t think many expect him to be Zdeno Chara, but having a guy who can skate, hit and intimidate like him, on a team as small as ours matters. 
 

Would he matter as much on say a Vegas or Florida who have big tough teams? Nope

 

but the value to US is greater 

 

I think that’s why people are ok with overpaying, it’s helping address a major gap we have, that even with him isn’t addressed. 
 

at least that’s why I’m ok with paying up. 

Edited June 17 by ArmchairGM22

[Elias Pettersson]

6 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Where does one find out about the deal being done?

Ummm, my username is Elias Pettersson.

[PhillipBlunt]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Ummm, my username is Elias Pettersson.

[The Duke]

15 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

Even six years seems like a bit much, if he's retained I'm hoping it's closer to 5x5M max, maybe up to 5.25M. 

 

I understand why folks like him and want him retained, but it seems like he's been mythologized a bit around these parts. 

Id love if we could keep him but part of me is curious what he goes for if he makes it to July 1st.
 

Even 5 mil AAV feels like a lot, though he does add some serious swagger to our group.  Was he like that on other teams?  I barely noticed him as a flame.

[Chon derry]

9 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

 

[PhillipBlunt]

2 minutes ago, Chon derry said:

 

[Coconuts]

8 minutes ago, ArmchairGM22 said:

I think it’s more about the unique traits he brings to THIS group. 
 

I don’t think many expect him to be Zdeno Chara, but having a guy who can skate, hit and intimidate like him, on a team as small as ours matters. 
 

Would he matter as much on say a Vegas or Florida who have big tough teams? Nope

 

but the value to US is greater 

 

I think that’s why people are ok with overpaying, it’s helping address a major gap we have, that even with him isn’t addressed. 
 

at least that’s why I’m ok with paying up. 

 

I get that, I just don't see him as being the only D out there who could do this. Although it's easier to keep him, certainly. 

 

I think there are plenty of folks who are blinded by recency bias a bit. Yeah, he put up 8 points in 13 games this past playoff run, but let's be real, he's not that sort of player most of the time.

 

Zadorov is a guy entering his 29-30 age season as a D who's never cracked 22 points in a season. 

 

Last season he put up a career high 14 goals, but that's also the only time he's scored more than 7 in a season and he hadn't done that since 2018-2019. 

 

He's big, he hits, and so on, fantastic, but he's not the only D out there who could do those things if he walks. I just don't view him as being irreplaceable the way some folks believe he is, which isn't to say I have an issue with us retaining him at the right price. 

 

Realistically he's maybe a guy who plays top 4 minutes, hits, fights occasionally, and maybe hits 20ish points. I certainly wouldn't be giving a player 6x6M to do that. If others view him as a keep at all costs sort of player, even if that requires an overpayment, more power to them, but I don't. 

 

If his deal lands around 4.5-5M over 4-5 seasons I doubt there'd be much complaining, but once you're into 6-8 at 5M+? Yeah, that's not as appealing. 

 

 

[testycal]

Folks..as has been mentioned..we wanted the other Nikita so badly and he spurned us...Mr. Z wants to be here.  I believe he will grow into a top 4 role. Given his physical stature, I believe he will grow older gracefully.  I believe he has more to give as well.  He will make his teammates play bigger. I understand the concern for the amount and term BUT he is a unique player who appears to have been limited with other terms.  He will grow into a bigger role with us.  I want him on the Canucks.

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

I get that, I just don't see him as being the only D out there who could do this. Although it's easier to keep him, certainly. 

 

I think there are plenty of folks who are blinded by recency bias a bit. Yeah, he put up 8 points in 13 games this past playoff run, but let's be real, he's not that sort of player most of the time.

 

Zadorov is a guy entering his 29-30 age season as a D who's never cracked 22 points in a season. 

 

Last season he put up a career high 14 goals, but that's also the only time he's scored more than 7 in a season and he hadn't done that since 2018-2019. 

 

He's big, he hits, and so on, fantastic, but he's not the only D out there who could do those things if he walks. I just don't view him as being irreplaceable the way some folks believe he is, which isn't to say I have an issue with us retaining him at the right price. 

 

Realistically he's maybe a guy who plays top 4 minutes, hits, fights occasionally, and maybe hits 20ish points. I certainly wouldn't be giving a player 6x6M to do that. If others view him as a keep at all costs sort of player, even if that requires an overpayment, more power to them, but I don't. 

 

If his deal lands around 4.5-5M over 4-5 seasons I doubt there'd be much complaining, but once you're into 6-8 at 5M+? Yeah, that's not as appealing. 

 

 

 

As I've said before, many Canucks fans are falling victim to recency bias based on a great post season.  As much as I like Zad, he's probably a $4.5m dman, $5m tops 

[PhillipBlunt]

[PhillipBlunt]

What’s going on? I’ve heard the term recency bias twice now in the last few posts. 
 

What is this recency bias?

 

Is it spreading or contained to a specific area?

 

If I want to contract this recency bias is there a place where I can come into contact with it?

[Coconuts]

17 minutes ago, The Duke said:

Id love if we could keep him but part of me is curious what he goes for if he makes it to July 1st.
 

Even 5 mil AAV feels like a lot, though he does add some serious swagger to our group.  Was he like that on other teams?  I barely noticed him as a flame.

 

You'd have to ask Flames fans, but my understanding is he was more of a 5 in Calgary based on ice time. His first season there he played roughly 17 minutes a night, behind Andersson, Hanifin, Tanev, Kylington, Stone, and Gudbranson. 

 

Look at 2022-2023 and he averaged about 18:41, behind Andersson, Hanifin, Weegar, and Tanev. 

 

This season he averaged about 18:24, behind Andersson, Hanifin, Weegar, and Tanev. 

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/2022.html

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/2023.html

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/

Edited June 17 by Coconuts

[ArmchairGM22]

10 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

I get that, I just don't see him as being the only D out there who could do this. Although it's easier to keep him, certainly. 

 

I think there are plenty of folks who are blinded by recency bias a bit. Yeah, he put up 8 points in 13 games this past playoff run, but let's be real, he's not that sort of player most of the time.

 

Zadorov is a guy entering his 29-30 age season as a D who's never cracked 22 points in a season. 

 

Last season he put up a career high 14 goals, but that's also the only time he's scored more than 7 in a season and he hadn't done that since 2018-2019. 

 

He's big, he hits, and so on, fantastic, but he's not the only D out there who could do those things if he walks. I just don't view him as being irreplaceable the way some folks believe he is, which isn't to say I have an issue with us retaining him at the right price. 

 

Realistically he's maybe a guy who plays top 4 minutes, hits, fights occasionally, and maybe hits 20ish points. I certainly wouldn't be giving a player 6x6M to do that. If others view him as a keep at all costs sort of player, even if that requires an overpayment, more power to them, but I don't. 

 

If his deal lands around 4.5-5M over 4-5 seasons I doubt there'd be much complaining, but once you're into 6-8 at 5M+? Yeah, that's not as appealing. 

 

 

He brings an element that allows this team to play bigger 

 

he intimidates players from going to the net hard, from taking liberties, and going into the corner hard - this matters in the playoffs

 

I don’t asses Z’s salary on his points. I asses his salary based on what it takes to win a cup, and does he have a skill set very lacking on our team. Imagine if we had a big Z when Ferland was running us over that year in the playoffs. Think he would have settled down? Yes 

 

So let’s pay up and lock in a monster who scares the crap out of the opposition 

 

not many players actually do that. Other than Trouba I don’t think I can name one.

Edited June 17 by ArmchairGM22

[stawns]

1 minute ago, PhillipBlunt said:

What’s going on? I’ve heard the term recency bias twice now in the last few posts. 
 

What is this recency bias?

 

Is it spreading or contained to a specific area?

 

If I want to contract this recency bias is there a place where I can come into contact with it?

 

Recency bias means youre influenced by a small, most recent sample size instead of looking at the totality of something.

 

In this case, I think people are overlooking the full body of Zads work and are, instead, influenced by his great 13 game run in the playoffs.

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, ArmchairGM22 said:

He brings an element that allows this team to play bigger 

 

he intimidates players from going to the net hard into the corner hard - this matters in the playoffs 

 

I don’t asses Z’s salary on his points. I asses his salary based on what it takes to win a cup, and does he have a skill set very lacking on our team 

 

yes. So pay up and lock in a monster who scares the crap out of the opposition 

 

not many players actually do that. Other than Trouba I don’t think I can name one.

I agree with all that, but that's not something you overpay for, imo.  The reality is, hes a 29 year old #5-4 dman and a long term, high aav contract is pretty risky.

[PhillipBlunt]

6 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

Recency bias means youre influenced by a small, most recent sample size instead of looking at the totality of something.

 

In this case, I think people are overlooking the full body of Zads work and are, instead, influenced by his great 13 game run in the playoffs.

They may be looking ahead at a full year under Jack Adams level coaching.
 

Tying Zadorov’s very steady and efficient presence in the playoffs to input from excellent defensive minds making him a vital cog in postseason success. 

Edited June 17 by PhillipBlunt

[Chon derry]

20 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

 

[ArmchairGM22]

8 minutes ago, stawns said:

I agree with all that, but that's not something you overpay for, imo.  The reality is, hes a 29 year old #5-4 dman and a long term, high aav contract is pretty risky.

Sure but in the playoffs he was #3 in minutes 

 

And I tend to consider him and Soucy combined at say 8.75, that’s an average of 4.375 each. Which is not crazy.
 

Also given how good he is, it allows the top pair to play less, making them more effective. ie Quinn was tired in the second round and arguably so was Hronek. Allowing pair 2/3 to take heavy minutes improves the team. Not to mention Soucy has not been very healthy with us so it’s insurance. Depth in the playoffs on D matters too. 
 

for all those reason, I’m hitting the golden buzzer! 

Edited June 17 by ArmchairGM22

[stawns]

5 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

They may be looking ahead at a full year under Jack Adams level coaching.
 

Tying Zadorov’s very steady and efficient presence in the playoffs to input from excellent defensive minds making him a vital cog in postseason success. 

 

I love Zad, but it's doubtful he plays the way he did in the playoffs and they shouldn't be paying him based on that.

 

He had a solid reg season and that's probably who he really is.

[stawns]

1 minute ago, ArmchairGM22 said:

Sure but in the playoffs he was #3 in minutes 

 

And I tend to consider him and Soucy combined at say 8.75, that’s an average of 4.375 each. Which is not crazy.
 

Also given how good he is, it allows the top pair to play less, making them more effective. ie Quinn was tired in the second round and arguably so was Hronek. Allowing pair 2/3 to take heavy minutes improves the team. Not to mention Soucy has not been very healthy with us so it’s insurance. Depth in the playoffs on D matters too. 
 

for all those reason, I’m hitting the golden buzzer! 

 

Again, recency bias.  You have to look at the whole picture, not just 13 games