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First round opponent


AnthonyG

Which first round match up do you want?  

81 members have voted

  1. 1. Which first round match up do you want?

    • NSH
      65
    • LAK
      3
    • VGK
      14


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1 hour ago, German Canuck said:

Kings or Knights?

 

It doesnt matter

 

Not a good season series against the Kings and Knights with Stone in the Lineup.

 

Both are tough to play but beatable with Canucks Hockey

 

Looking like the Preds now. We've won the season series but it was decided in 2023. Preds have been better in 2024. 

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I'm not too worried about who we play, Most likely Nash now...But what i noticed about this team is that they adjust fast, If they lose a game to a team and play them a week later they usually win..I'm sure GM 1 will be more of a feel out game and I think with our coaching staff the nux will make proper adjustments and start to dominate.

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Whoever the opponent is, it won't be easy.

 

Nashville has been playing extremely well... they are a veteran team... the Canucks will take them lightly at their peril.

 

They need to get on whoever it is really hard, forechecking, clearing the D-Zone, never letting up.

 

First round is the graveyard of 1st time playoff teams... especially those who have great records and come into the round overconfident.

 

Take nothing for granted.

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3 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

 

Looking like the Preds now. We've won the season series but it was decided in 2023. Preds have been better in 2024. 

We won't catch Dallas, they get the weakest of the wild cards which is Vegas.    
 

As for NSH, they have a couple legit star/supertars  in Forsberg and Josi, and very deep down the middle.     They are a good team really.  

 

Crazy that one of the best series in the playoffs, is happening in the first round.     Dallas and Vegas. 

Edited by IBatch
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2 hours ago, -Buzzsaw- said:

Whoever the opponent is, it won't be easy.

 

Nashville has been playing extremely well... they are a veteran team... the Canucks will take them lightly at their peril.

 

They need to get on whoever it is really hard, forechecking, clearing the D-Zone, never letting up.

 

First round is the graveyard of 1st time playoff teams... especially those who have great records and come into the round overconfident.

 

Take nothing for granted.

Their top scorers ... the second is Josi, and look at that center depth.   99 points and counting ... that's the Wests first wild card spot?!!! Nuts.    They are only 8 points behind us, the difference is razor thin between a good and a great team in the West especially these days.    It's possible both wild card spots will have 100-101 points.    At least 94-99      

IMG_3928.png

Edited by IBatch
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Nashville is by far the best 1st round opponent.

 

Preds have had a fantastic run here, and Brunette has them playing some solid offensive hockey. But that doesn’t always translate to the playoffs (it sure didn’t for Florida when Brunette was there). They are also a bit top-heavy, and should be easier to gameplan for.

 

The 2nd best would have been Vegas. They are stacked, but Hertl has missed a lot of time, Stone may not be 100% for a while, and their goalies have been sketchy. I think they will get stronger the deeper they go, but will have trouble getting past Dallas.

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4 hours ago, IBatch said:

As for NSH, they have a couple legit star/supertars  in Forsberg and Josi, and very deep down the middle.  

Actually wondering if they are deeper than us?... I think we got more skill down the middle but after that they may have the edge.  They have us on playoff experience for sure.  No advantage in goaltending either.

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15 hours ago, German Canuck said:

Kings or Knights?

 

It doesnt matter

 

Not a good season series against the Kings and Knights with Stone in the Lineup.

 

Both are tough to play but beatable with Canucks Hockey

Especially with Demko in net. Makes a huge difference.

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On 4/10/2024 at 5:49 PM, AnthonyG said:

It is still up in the air as to who our first round opponent may end up being.

Is NSH the team we want to see for the first round? Or is it either VGK or LAK?

I know fans would like Nashville just based on our record against them and the style they play. VGK is going to be getting healthy and is going to be a tough team for anyone to beat. LAK on the other hand plays a very stingy 1-3-1 style of forecheck and are defensively quite hard to expose. Or are they?

Lets look at our records and some advanced analytics that may lead to the truer story of who we actually want.

 

I'll start with Nashville. 

 

vs NSH

(3-0-0)

5v5

GF 9   

GA 6

xGF 5.64

xGA 6.18

SCF 68

SCA 71

HDCF 23

HDCA 28

HDGF 6

HDGA 2

CORSI 49.82%

SV% .897

 

All Situations

GF 13

GA 6

xGF 9.92

xGA 7.82

SCF 85

SCA 83

HDCF 33

HDCA 34

HDGF 8

HDGA 2

CORSI 49.85%

SV% .920

 

Here are the heat maps in all situations vs NSH

 

20232024-20095-all.png

20232024-20140-all.png

20232024-20491-all.png

 

Sure we are 3-0-0 against NSH, but the games are much closer than what the score and the record says. It's pretty damn even. 

 

vs VGK

(2-2-0)

5v5

GF 7

GA 11

xGF 7.18

xGA 6.75

SCF 76

SCA 76

HDCF 33

HDCA 25

HDGF 4

HDGA 6

CORSI 49.19%

SV% .912

 

All Situations

GF 11

GA 14

xGF 11.57

xGA 9.48

SCF 96

SCA 96

HDCF 45

HDCA 35

HDGF 5

HDGA 7

CORSI 49.78%

SV% .880

 

VGK Heat maps

20232024-20353-all.png

20232024-21002-all.png

20232024-21196-all.png

20232024-21238-all.png

 

 

 

Against VGK we actually get slightly more opportunities and we deserved to score more goals. It would appear we have a slight upper hand on VGK and with Demko and Lindholm returning, possession and SV% is just just going to add to our upper hand. No doubt VGK is good, but I feel we are deeper and more skilled and better structured.

 

Okay now for the  Lame ASS Kings. The record really doesn't favor us at all. BUT... A deeper dive into the stats and you'll see that no matter who we play, we have a very good chance of winning and especially versus LAK.

 

vs LAK

(1-3-0)

5v5

GF 4

GA 9

xGF 8.41

xGA 5.55

SCF 91

SCA 55

HDCF 48

HDCA 23

HDGF 4

HDGA 5

CORSI 59.55%

SV% .888

 

All Situations

GF 8

GA 15

xGF 12.36

xGA 7.17

SCF 116

SCA 65

HDCF 62

HDCA 28

HDGF 5

HDGA 7

CORSI 61.65%

SV% .837

 

LAK Heat maps 

20232024-20951-all.png\

20232024-20988-all.png

20232024-21135-all.png

20232024-21227-all.png

 

 

 

We absolutely dominate possession and get the LARGE majority of high danger chances and scoring chances period. LAK is not nearly as stingy as people think, we have exposed them countless times, pretty much double in scoring chances and definitely double in high danger chances. The difference has been LAK's goaltending, our season has been pretty strong all year long in terms of goaltending, so I dont see LAK getting the better of us in net in a best of 7 when the chances we get are a staggering 2x1 advantage with 60% possession. 
 

Anyways I was really bored and thought I'd do a little research. Haven't really been on the forums too much.

 

LAK is my vote. Either way we are taking it this year.

 

vs Conference 12-6-4

vs East 21-7-4

 

 

 

Phenomenal breakdown--thanks for capturing and sharing all of this.

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Can someone do a player versus player comparison between Canucks and Preds? Would be nice to see how we stack up against them. A couple of familiar faces in Beauvillier and Schenn. I think we matchup good against them.

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52 minutes ago, Canuck You said:

Nash isn't a lock just yet..They have 1 gm left, If they lose it and Vegas wins their 2 then we get LV. (assuming we do finish 2nd)..And guess who their last 2 opps are? Chicago and Ana lol.

 

We could still get Nashville in that case, if we win out and Dallas loses their last game in regulation. Then we'd win the West and get Nashville as WC2

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On 4/11/2024 at 7:43 PM, -AJ- said:

Honestly, I don't really care. There's no easy opponent.

 

Probably Vegas because of two reasons:

 

1. Vegas might be easiest in round 1. If they win a round and we have to face them in round 2 if we make it there, the snowball effect will be real for them and they might be harder in the 2nd round.

 

2. Vegas is probably the team against whom we'd be the least favoured. I'd rather be underdogs and be "playing with house money", so to speak.

 

There is no easier opponent but there is still such a thing as an easier opportonent.


No shame winning the cup with easier matchups. I am sure the Pens were glad to have faced a Ottawa team that has basically over achieved in their conference finals and an 8th seeded Nashville team that were beat down by the time the Finals hits.

 

Speaking of Nashville, my pick is Nashville.

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On 4/14/2024 at 8:46 AM, -Buzzsaw- said:

Whoever the opponent is, it won't be easy.

 

Nashville has been playing extremely well... they are a veteran team... the Canucks will take them lightly at their peril.

 

They need to get on whoever it is really hard, forechecking, clearing the D-Zone, never letting up.

 

First round is the graveyard of 1st time playoff teams... especially those who have great records and come into the round overconfident.

 

Take nothing for granted.

 

Canucks do have to play 100% regardless who they are facing but Nashville is still a favorable matchup for Vancouver.

 

LA Kings seem to have Vancouver's number and seems to be a bad matchup for Vancouver.

Vegas as the Stone factor. Adding Stone in the playoffs makes them a 2nd wild card team to an instant world beater.  

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Playoffs are all about who you play and who you avoid. Some years you play a team you struggle with some years you catch a break and they get knocked out first. Its a crap shoot. You need a few things to go right. Get the one point we need and let the chips fall where they may but id rather play the preds than the Knights or kings. Just based on history. 

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i'm sure if an annoymous vote was done by the teams or players on nashville LA or vegas.. they'll all be overwhelming vote for vancouver as their 1st round opponent as opposed to dallas or edmonton. Vancouver prolly have the better goaltending of the 3 easily.. defensively prolly a wash between dallas and van.. but offensively and especially special teams since the all star break.. it's not even close vancouver is the worse of the 3.. dallas is well balanced leading the league with 20+ goals scorer iirc.. and edmonton have the mcdavid factor.. if they can put a couple past demko they have a chance of grinding out the win vs edmonton or dallas where they are always a threat to outscore their problem.

 

hoping nashville gets at least 1 point tonight against a desperate pittsburgh team.. at the very least it'll guarantee vegas can't past them.. and we won't get vegas unless we win the conference. nashville at 100 points... LA or vegas can't pass them for the wc 1 no matter what. if LA finish with 101 points.. they win 3rd in the pacific.. if they or vegas only hit 100 points they can't past nashville as nashville holds the tiebreaker against both

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5 hours ago, iinatcc said:

 

There is no easier opponent but there is still such a thing as an easier opportonent.


No shame winning the cup with easier matchups. I am sure the Pens were glad to have faced a Ottawa team that has basically over achieved in their conference finals and an 8th seeded Nashville team that were beat down by the time the Finals hits.

 

Speaking of Nashville, my pick is Nashville.

 

I wanted Boston in the 2011 finals. Ever since then, I've decdied I don't care for certain picks.

 

The reality is that either way, if we're going to go far, we're gonna face a deadly team in the first two rounds.

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On 4/12/2024 at 5:02 AM, IBatch said:

St. Louis for sure gave hope to the entire mediocrity band.   Parity.   The difference now between a great team and a good team is razor thin.   Same with a good team and a mediocre one.   And as far as regular seasons go,  we've seen a lot of cups won outside of the top band as well.   LA times two.    Some teams are built better for the post season.    MTL is probably the only "Cinderalla" run i've seen since the cap came in... and that wasn't with fans and an odd year.   Maybe NSH, but they paid their dues as well, wouldn't call that team mediocre, just in the band of hopefuls.     Which this team certainly is right now as well. 

 

In case you're interested,  Canucks were ranked second as far as longest windows by THN.   A four year window.   Starting now.   So yes patience for sure.    Winning this year would be shocking if it was framed in the pre-season, they've proven some mettle now, winning the division would put an exclamation mark on the season.   As of right now, i'd rank only 93, 2011, 2012 as better regular seasons.  

 

   Usually it takes a few cracks at it.   Only Dallas ahead of us (their window is "open", makes sense given the age of their best players, and no state tax).    Our team isn't perfect, but has it all where it matters the most.    It also wouldn't be considered a Cinderella run if we went to the final or won a cup this year either.

 

Edit:  As for that window ... makes sense, once all these guys get paid ... it won't be easy.    Hopefully they can navigate that.   It's also why I was hoping we'd trade a first this year to give this team a chance.    Back in November when it was awfully apparent that Tochett definitely got through to the group last Spring.    Years 1-4.   At some point we should expect Miller to decline, and EP to ascend.   We wouldn't have a chance without either of those guys.    Same with Demko and QHs.     Brock breaking out is also timely, these guys finally came to play this season.    Tochett and his staff deserve a lot of credit for that. 

 

The way I see it, the mediocrity will come by keeping this team together organically.    It's peak is right now and sustainable for a few years, then we will need to re-tool.    Window gets wider is if Millers like Pavelski,  and if we can draft some studs to balance the cap, make some savy trades etc.   Four years of peak is pretty darn good these days.   

image.jpg

Nice to see Toronto's 5 year plan is just more of the same, i.e. regular season success + playoff suckage = TML Future.

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4 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

i'm sure if an annoymous vote was done by the teams or players on nashville LA or vegas.. they'll all be overwhelming vote for vancouver as their 1st round opponent as opposed to dallas or edmonton. Vancouver prolly have the better goaltending of the 3 easily.. defensively prolly a wash between dallas and van.. but offensively and especially special teams since the all star break.. it's not even close vancouver is the worse of the 3.. dallas is well balanced leading the league with 20+ goals scorer iirc.. and edmonton have the mcdavid factor.. if they can put a couple past demko they have a chance of grinding out the win vs edmonton or dallas where they are always a threat to outscore their problem.

 

hoping nashville gets at least 1 point tonight against a desperate pittsburgh team.. at the very least it'll guarantee vegas can't past them.. and we won't get vegas unless we win the conference. nashville at 100 points... LA or vegas can't pass them for the wc 1 no matter what. if LA finish with 101 points.. they win 3rd in the pacific.. if they or vegas only hit 100 points they can't past nashville as nashville holds the tiebreaker against both

thanks for posting this i was just calculating the math myself

 

Pittsburgh beating Nashville in OT today is my desired outcome.

 

i want Penguins to make it and Nashville clinches WC1 with one point today or if LA loses in regulation today than Nashville still clinches WC1 because in that case most points LA can get is 99 and Nashville has the tiebraker, if Vegas ends up with 100 points than they'll move into 3rd in division.

 

I just Nashville to clinch already so the playoff schedule can be announced. it's impossible to plan life, work, and going to the games right now...

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