[PGT] Canucks @ Oilers (i.e., the DeSmith apology thread)

[Dr. Crossbar]

3 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Also shows how good the Oilers, Avs and especially Dallas have been over the back half of the season. 

 

Real team.

[-dlc-]

2 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Also shows how good the Oilers, Avs and especially Dallas have been over the back half of the season. 

Av's in their last 10: 4-5-1

 

Teams get hot and cold....I like our team because they've been fairly consistent (see above).

[Dr. Crossbar]

3 minutes ago, -dlc- said:

Av's in their last 10: 4-5-1

 

Teams get hot and cold....I like our team because they've been fairly consistent (see above).

 

Cold hard facts right there!

[Captkirk888]

56 minutes ago, footsteps said:

@#*&^ ^&^$%^& *()$ ^%?><*%@ ^%@@:">>< ^&#**^

 

Well, just heard from my sister, our Dad (94) has tested positive for covid (again)...

 

Sorry to hear that. You are lucky to have him tho at that age.

i lost mine when I was 38, he was just 70.

miss him every day.

[Rocket-68]

4 hours ago, Pears said:

People also seem to forget he was a cap dump at the time and wasn't just an asset to get Lindholm, so of course we were going to have to pay a bit extra. Clearing that extra $5.5 million will be huge for the offseason. 

 

I think Lindholm will prove himself well worth the trade come post season. Yesterday he stuck to Dry-Saddle like a fat kid on a pack of Smarties, giving him very little space and time, made excellent defensive plays and was money on the penalty kill. Time will tell of course.

 

But assume Kuzmenko was still here and Lindholm wasn't:

 

1) Could he do to Dry "please bring McDavid back" Saddle what Lindholm did and will do to many other top players in the playoffs

2) With $5M added to the cap next year, which one of Zad, Honker, Joshua would you wave goodbye to assuming Mik doesn't get moved 

3) In my ever so humble opinion, keeping Kuz would make Mik harder to move next season for reasons several keyboards have been broken over expounding upon

4) Stats - left is Kuzy time in Van this season and the right is his performance in Calgary after the trade. An argument could be made he is playing worse in Calgary than he was here in Vancouver and in Vancouver he was given opportunities to play on Miller's and Petey's line ... I guess JT and the Alien really suck if Kuz "performed" better in Calgary according to some posters

    

 

I liked Kuzmenko and really rooted for him, but given the chance to trade Lindholm for Kuzmenko right now (assuming such a thing was possible), which would you prefer on the roster come game time, game 1 against the Preds or much less likely the Knights. I know what my choice would be.

 

EDIT: for comparison, added Lindholm's stats, left is time in Van while right is time in Calgary this season. 

 

    

 

Just my two shekels. 

 

GO CANUCKS GO!

Edited April 15 by Rocket-68

[Canuck You]

I'm ready for some long sunny days, Warm nights, BBQ's and finally some frickin' P/O hockey in Vancouver! Let's GO Canucks!

[Johnny]

1 hour ago, Darius said:

I was a bit  surprised .. I think I’m in here so much reading a lot of posts I had convinced myself we took a nose dive! 

I love coming around this place when the team is doing well

 

when the team is losing it turns into a toxic waste pit of arrogance and ignorance 

[Captain Hughes]

I woke up this morning and stubbed my toe. I was rolling on the floor in pain. Then I remembered we swept the oilers and that victory last night and all the sudden I forgot about my pain and did 3 back flips. Go nucks go! My Lindholm jersey should be arriving any day now in time for game 1!!! Fck the oilers and the Nashville "child" predators 

[Dr. Crossbar]

22 minutes ago, Johnny said:

I love coming around this place when the team is doing well

 

when the team is losing it turns into a toxic waste pit of arrogance and ignorance 

 

That's putting it nice and politely.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14 by Dr. Crossbar

[Dr. Crossbar]

11 minutes ago, Rocket-68 said:

 

I think Lindholm will prove himself well worth the trade come post season. Yesterday he stuck to Dry-Saddle like a fat kid on a pack of Smarties, giving him very little space and time, made excellent defensive plays and was money on the penalty kill. Time will tell of course.

 

But assume Kuzmenko was still here and Lindholm wasn't:

 

1) Could he do to Dry "please bring McDavid back" Saddle what Lindholm did and will do to many other top players in the playoffs

2) With $5M added to the cap next year, which one of Zad, Honker, Joshua would you wave goodbye to assuming Mik doesn't get moved 

3) In my ever so humble opinion, keeping Kuz would make Mik harder to move next season for reasons several keyboards have been broken over expounding upon

4) Stats - left is Kuzy time in Van this season and the right is his performance in Calgary after the trade. An argument could be made he is playing worse in Calgary than he was here in Vancouver and in Vancouver he was given opportunities to play on Miller's and Petey's line ... I guess JT and the Alien really suck if Kuz "performed" better in Calgary according to some posters

    

 

I liked Kuzmenko and really rooted for him, but given the chance to trade Lindholm for Kuzmenko right now (assuming such a thing was possible), which would you prefer on the roster come game time, game 1 against the Preds or much less likely the Knights. I know what my choice would be.

 

Just my two shekels. 

 

GO CANUCKS GO!

 

Good points!

 

1. The vibe around Lindholm is already changing. People are recognizing his value to the team.

 

2. Getting rid of Mik is the smarter move to keep others.

 

3. Excellent point about Kuz. It would have made it harder. No one has really mentioned that.

 

4. It's just different systems, players, roles, and expectations that can't be applied equally across both teams. The thing with Kuz is that some will excuse and overlook things just because he made them feel good.

 

5. People like numbered lists on here.

[Hogs and Podz]

2 minutes ago, Johnny said:

I love coming around this place when the team is doing well

 

when the team is losing it turns into a toxic waste pit of arrogance and ignorance 

Unfortunately many fans... Including the usual suspects here have so much trepidation and deep seeded fears from past hopes and dreams being crushed by past canuck teams Stanley Cup loses... Many just won't allow themselves to be remotely hopeful or positive about the present team.  "Once bitten twice shy". 

 

Some here are proceeding with caution, some fully on the fandom bandwagon. 

 

Yet.... some here, actually hope the team rips our hearts out again so they can say... "told you so!... Should have believed me when I said they're not real or sustainable or no experience or too inconsistant etc....".

 

Those 'fans' are the toxic ones... No faith, wet blanket, Debbie Downer, chicken littles.  We know who they are.  

 

Should we go far or win the cup this year, I'll call them out by name because I don't believe they deserve to revel in the celebration like the rest of us that have stuck by the team, stayed loyal, and not spewed their weak, fear doubting beliefs.

[Rocket-68]

Vancouver's first round opponent - Preds or Knights ... 

 

1) Preds - need to get at least 1 point and Knights have to gather 3/4 points against Quackers and Hawks (ouch)

2) Knights - if Preds lose in regulation and Knights get 4 points over their next 2 games.

 

When Avs were up 3-0 over the Knights, I would have bet the farm on a Canucks / Predators Round 1 matchup. Now, with Preds playing a desperate Penguins team on Monday and Knights having two of the worst teams in the league Tuesday and Thursday, we could very easily be up against Vegas Round 1. 

Oh well, whoever it is, my money will be on the Canucks to pull it out and move onto Round 2 ... anyone else of the same mindset?

 

GO CANUCKS GO!

Edit: Assumption is that Canucks get at least 1 point in the next 2 games and Dallas wins the Western Conference title.

Edited April 14 by Rocket-68

[DrJockitch]

56 minutes ago, -dlc- said:

Av's in their last 10: 4-5-1

 

Teams get hot and cold....I like our team because they've been fairly consistent (see above).

I can compliment other teams without dragging the Canucks.

We have maintained the pace that put us in first in the league in the first half and still got caught and passed by a few teams.  Carolina, NYR, Colorado, Dallas really did great through back half. I still like a matchup with most of those teams especially since they will be later rounds and 5v5 we are tough to beat.
Great year by any measure so far. I like us especially as things get further along and special teams play a smaller role. 

[NoCupSyndrome]

10 minutes ago, Rocket-68 said:

Vancouver's first round opponent - Preds or Knights ... 

 

1) Preds - need to get at least 1 point and Knights have to gather 3/4 points against Quackers and Hawks (ouch)

2) Knights - if Preds lose in regulation and Knights get 4 points over their next 2 games.

 

When Avs were up 3-0 over the Knights, I would have bet the farm on a Canucks / Predators Round 1 matchup. Now, with Preds playing a desperate Penguins team on Monday and Knights having two of the worst teams in the league Tuesday and Thursday, we could very easily be up against Vegas Round 1. 

Oh well, whoever it is, my money will be on the Canucks to pull it out and move onto Round 2 ... anyone else of the same mindset?

 

GO CANUCKS GO!

Edit: Assumption is that Canucks get at least 1 point in the next 2 games and Dallas wins the Western Conference title.

 

Last night I had a funny feeling it would be Canucks and Vegas in round 1. End of the day, careful what you wish for (re: wanting Preds over Vegas) so probably best to just embrace whichever team it is. A Vegas/EDM/Dallas/eastern champ SC win would be amazing!!!

 

 

 

[Bure10Kuzmenko96]

1 hour ago, Darius said:

Looks consistent. 
 

 

Damn, that's very good!

[Hogs and Podz]

The thing is... If we face Vegas, though we finished with a better record, we by most, would be considered 'underdogs' and would have very little pressure on us to win.  Whereas it would be the opposite should we face Nashville.  

[CanuckDownUnder]

1 hour ago, Darius said:

Looks consistent. 
 

 

 

Its a great way to look at it and is very encouraging. Points aside, though, I think people have seen a difference in their play over the last while compared to the first half. True, the points were there, but they were losing leads in the third, and I think the goal differential has gone down too. Just saying people have had concerns and they weren't imaginary. Having said that, seeing the play over the last few and with Demko back I think those are being addressed and its looking good for the first round.

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Pesce at 5M is better the Hronek at 8M 

Agree completely 

[Hogs and Podz]

1 hour ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Pesce at 5M is better the Hronek at 8M 

Pesce is a ufa after this season no?  He will expect a raise.  He's 29, 30 in November.  Coming off a 6 year deal.  So do you think he could be had for say 6.5 to 7 over 6-8 years? 

[footsteps]

35 minutes ago, NoCupSyndrome said:

 

Last night I had a funny feeling it would be Canucks and Vegas in round 1. End of the day, careful what you wish for (re: wanting Preds over Vegas) so probably best to just embrace whichever team it is. A Vegas/EDM/Dallas/eastern champ SC win would be amazing!!!

 

 

 

A SC win would be fantastic in and of itself - I don't care who we run over to get there! 

[Hairy Kneel]

11 minutes ago, Hogs and Podz said:

Pesce is a ufa after this season no?  He will expect a raise.  He's 29, 30 in November.  Coming off a 6 year deal.  So do you think he could be had for say 6.5 to 7 over 6-8 years? 

He's currently at 4M 29 years old,

5.5 over 6 years? If he likes where our team is at.

[Hogs and Podz]

1 minute ago, Hairy Kneel said:

He's currently at 4M 29 years old,

5.5 over 6 years? If he likes where our team is at.

Okay so you're saying if he's good with a 1 mill raise... I think as a right shot, mobile, close to, if not already elite defencmen... He'll want and can get 7 mill for 5 years or 6.5 at 7 no?  

 

So if Pesce can get say 45.5 over 7 years (6.5 per, taking him to 37 years old) vs Hronek (already proven to fit well with Hughes) 60 over 8 years (7.5 per, taking him to 35.  Which is a more guaranteed smart signing?  

Not so sure... Unless you can get Pesce for 6 or under I think I'd go with Hronek (IF he stays 7.5 or under).

[Jaimito]

Last regular season home game. 

What better way to appreciate the fans by clinching the Pacific Division?

 

 

 

Edited April 15 by Jaimito

[JamesB]

21 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

 

Hey James, I really enjoy your synopsis of the games. I'm not into advanced stats but I do enjoy your analysis of them cross referenced with your own eye test. You make some interesting and subtle observations as a result.

 

One thing I've noticed though is that the expected goals never seem to actually match the actual goals. I find a lot of those stats pretty flawed in what they're actually attempting to measure. Is this common or am I just noticing the odd contradiction? It seems as if you say a lot that one team had the advanced stats edge but often they didn't win the game.

 

Good question.

 

Expected goals are based on how likely a shot is to score based on where the shot was taken and some other factors like type of shot (slap, wrist, etc.), PP situation (5-on-4, 5-on5, 4-on-5 etc.) and location of previous "event".

 

In any one game, the expected goals and actual goals often differ quite a bit. A shot from the blueline near the boards at even strength has a low chance of going in: maybe 2%, so the expected goals would be 0.02. But if the puck goes in because it deflects in off a defender, the actual goals will be 1.0 -- 50 times as much. And, as a result of that lucky bounce, that team is likely to end up with more actual goals than expected goals in that game. 

 

But bounces tend to even out in the long run and expected goals and actual goals for a season are usually quite similar. This year, however, the Canucks are outliers in a positive direction with 273 actual goals and only 256 expected goals (all strengths).  But even for the Canucks, those numbers are not far apart (less than 7% more actual goals than expected goals). Why do the Canucks have a positive differential? They have better than average shooters and they go for high danger chances. 

 

But the main factor that makes expected goals differ from actual goals is goaltending.  If you get good goaltending actual goals against will be less than expected goals against.  This year the Canucks have 230 expected goals against but only 216 actual goals against. Why? Good goaltending. 

 

Expected goals give a good measure relative dominance in play. But actual goals differ because of lucky bounces, good or bad goaltending and other factors. It is pretty common for the teams in the NHL to win despite being behind in expected goals or vice versa. Another factor is that the team that is behind often puts on a late flurry (the "chasing team") while the team that is ahead focuses on defending. That inflates expected goals for chasing teams. 

 

But, in the long run, having a high expected goals for number and a low expected goals against number is important. 

 

The teams with the best expected goals percentages in the Western Conference are Edmonton, Dallas, Nashville and Vancouver. The worst are San Jose, Anaheim, and Chicago.  That is a pretty good indicator of team quality. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15 by JamesB

[kilgore]

9 minutes ago, JamesB said:

 

Good question.

 

Expected goals are based on how likely a shot is to score based on where the shot was taken and some other factors like type of shot (slap, wrist, etc.), PP situation (5-on-4, 5-on5, 4-on-5 etc.) and location of previous "event".

 

In any one game, the expected goals and actual goals often differ quite a bit. A shot from the blueline near the boards at even strength has a low chance of going in: maybe 2%, so the expected goals would be 0.02. But if the puck goes in because it deflects in off a defender, the actual goals will be 1.0 -- 50 times as much. And, as a result of that lucky bounce, that team is likely to end up with more actual goals than expected goals in that game. 

 

But bounces tend to even out in the long run and expected goals and actual goals for a season are usually quite similar. This year, however, the Canucks are outliers in a positive direction with 273 actual goals and only 256 expected goals (all strengths).  But even for the Canucks, those numbers are not far apart. Why do the Canucks have a positive differential? They have better than average shooters and they go for high danger chances. 

 

But the main factor that makes expected goals differ from actual goals is goaltending.  If you get good goaltending actual goals against will be less than expected goals against.  This year the Canucks have 273 expected goals against but only 256 actual goals against. Why? Good goaltending. 

 

Expected goals give a good measure relative dominance in play. But actual goals differ because of lucky bounces, good or bad goaltending and other factors. It is pretty common for the teams in the NHL to win despite being behind in expected goals or vice versa. Another factor is that the team that is behind often puts on a late flurry (the "chasing team") while the team that is ahead focuses on defending. That inflates expected goals for chasing teams. 

 

But, in the long run, having a high expected goals for number and a low expected goals against number is important. 

 

The teams with the best expected goals percentages in the Western Conference are Edmonton, Dallas, Nashville and Vancouver. The worst are San Jose, Anaheim, and Chicago.  That is a pretty good indicator of team quality. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I knew those Garly side goal line shots would pay off.