[Speculation] VGK has only 900K of cap space and can not extend Marchessault/Stephenson

[IBatch]

On 5/28/2024 at 8:03 PM, DrJockitch said:

It is truly some fantastic GMing. They go after the biggest player every year and get them. Somehow they squeeze them in. No sentimentality. 
They play the system they are in and have done an amazing job of it. I don’t like a lot of their players or their team but 5 years they have a cup, 50 we don’t, I will bend any rule almost to breaking for a cup.

They saw what TB did with Kucherov, and doubled down on using that part of the CBA.     They also have the luxury, to sign stars to deals they would ask for more elsewhere.   Even Alex P in St. Louis, they more then matched that offer with their net pay.  Reality is, teams like Vegas, TB, Florida and Dallas are able to jam in a lot more.    Meanwhile Allvin and other teams, have an incredibly difficult time creating a top 9, and a top six without plugs.     Drafting is incredibly important for any teams, what Vegas managed with their "draft" was unreal. 

[DrJockitch]

4 minutes ago, IBatch said:

They saw what TB did with Kucherov, and doubled down on using that part of the CBA.     They also have the luxury, to sign stars to deals they would ask for more elsewhere.   Even Alex P in St. Louis, they more then matched that offer with their net pay.  Reality is, teams like Vegas, TB, Florida and Dallas are able to jam in a lot more.    Meanwhile Allvin and other teams, have an incredibly difficult time creating a top 9, and a top six without plugs.     Drafting is incredibly important for any teams, what Vegas managed with their "draft" was unreal. 

We are in trouble if depending on picks. JR hates picks. 

[IBatch]

19 hours ago, HKSR said:

Amadio and Carrier could be had for probably a combined $4M to $4.5M.  Makes us realize that Joshua is replaceable.  I really can't see us signing Joshua for the nearly $4M AAV that some analysts are predicting.  Joshua walks IMO.

3.25 x 4 is the predictive model.   That's palatable.    He's only got to score in the low 30's to make par, and his intangibles are what's difficult to find.   Threw more hits (and his are heavy, just ask NSH and EDM) then anyone,  and did have a key game for us as well.   Replaceable maybe, just hard to find these guys.   Not sure Tochett is going to like that much either, his third line won us a lot of games this year.   Cost to keep it, 3M or so with Bluegars raise as well.    Not an expensive third line either, for what they bring to the table. 

 

9 hours ago, canucks curse said:

TO CHI
Milky + podz

 

TO VAN
CHI for 2024 CH 2nd

= - 5.75 cap hit 

 

= 23.778+5.75 = 29.6

 

TO VGK

Hogz

Woo

Klimovich

 

 

TO VAN

Theadore (5.2)

Roy (3)

 

chandler 5x 6yrs

Hronek 7.75 x 8 yrs

Roy 3

Theadore 5.2

Myers 2.75

Joshua 3x6

Silovs 1.25

Letteremaki 9k

 

 

Cap space 750k

 

Chandler Petey Brock

Joshua Miller Garland

Suter Roy Letteremaki 

PDG Aman Bains

 

Hughes Hronek

Theadore Myers

Soucy Juulsen

 

Silovs 

demko 

Theodore, that's not happening for that package.    Guy plays both sides well.    Some injury issues the past two years, still manages over 40 points.    Another example of a low state tax deal, and also what an appropriate cap percentage looks like for Hronek.    Theodore has a five team NTC, my bets are Van, TO, MTL and OTT are on it.  

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

3.25 x 4 is the predictive model.   That's palatable.    He's only got to score in the low 30's to make par, and his intangibles are what's difficult to find.   Threw more hits (and his are heavy, just ask NSH and EDM) then anyone,  and did have a key game for us as well.   Replaceable maybe, just hard to find these guys.   Not sure Tochett is going to like that much either, his third line won us a lot of games this year.   Cost to keep it, 3M or so with Bluegars raise as well.    Not an expensive third line either, for what they bring to the table. 

 

Theodore, that's not happening for that package.    Guy plays both sides well.    Some injury issues the past two years, still manages over 40 points.    Another example of a low state tax deal, and also what an appropriate cap percentage looks like for Hronek.    Theodore has a five team NTC, my bets are Van, TO, MTL and OTT are on it.  

I don't see only $3.25M for Joshua considering the type of game he brings on top of his production. 

 

But with that being said, what predictive model are you referring to?  I'm always interested in that kinda thing.

[spook007]

On 5/29/2024 at 1:03 AM, DrJockitch said:

It is truly some fantastic GMing. They go after the biggest player every year and get them. Somehow they squeeze them in. No sentimentality. 
They play the system they are in and have done an amazing job of it. I don’t like a lot of their players or their team but 5 years they have a cup, 50 we don’t, I will bend any rule almost to breaking for a cup.

Seem to remember we did that.... and got hammered...

[boziffous]

22 hours ago, HKSR said:

32 points in 68 games translates to about 39 points over 82 games.  Generally forwards get about $1M for every 10 points that they put up.  With his forechecking ability, speed, strength, and PK ability, he will probably get a deal in or around $4M AAV.

 

Joshua actually only played 63 games, so his pt per game production was even higher. He started off slow with 6 pts in his first 24 games, but seemed to get stronger as the season went on, finishing with 26 pts in his last 39 regular season games.

[DownUndaCanuck]

Don't think they care, they basically just acquired a new core in their prime to move forward - Hertl and Hanifin. That's two top pieces of a core. They can shed some older guys and not stress at all.

 

I think the big problem will hit next year when their goalies contracts expire as well as Theodore's and no real cap coming off the books - that's when they'll have to make some really big decisions. Next year they go into the season with arguably the best D in the league.

[RWJC]

11 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Don't think they care, they basically just acquired a new core in their prime to move forward - Hertl and Hanifin. That's two top pieces of a core. They can shed some older guys and not stress at all.

 

I think the big problem will hit next year when their goalies contracts expire as well as Theodore's and no real cap coming off the books - that's when they'll have to make some really big decisions. Next year they go into the season with arguably the best D in the league.

Rumour I heard on podcast this morning is that the Laffs and VGK may have already discussed (early stage) a deal that sends Marner to VGK for Theodore+. TML would potentially pay the bonuses for both players but would also create a large amount of cap space to fill other holes, perhaps on D.

 

Hope this does not evolve, if any substance to it to begin with, because once again VGK comes out the winner.

[VegasCanuck]

With Hertl on board, they will probably let Marchessault walk. With LTIR, they have almost 5.9 million, I think they try and sign Stephenson and then fill out from lower priced guys.

 

They are actually in pretty good shape overall.

 

 

[Blue]

Judging by how many times i hear his name when we play against him , I'd be happy to acquire him. I thought the same about Saucy and was right 

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, VegasCanuck said:

With Hertl on board, they will probably let Marchessault walk. With LTIR, they have almost 5.9 million, I think they try and sign Stephenson and then fill out from lower priced guys.

 

They are actually in pretty good shape overall.

 

 

I think it depends on how much Marchessault wants.  I think they'd rather keep him and move someone like Karlsson if they could.  Either way, they will lose someone from the old core, but have replaced him with Hertl.

[R3aL]

I’d be very interested in signing JM short term to flank petey. 
 

if we can’t make a top line trade or get guentzel 

 

I don’t love the idea of 3/9 top 9 players being 5 9 or below but he is a proven playoff performer and garland has proven his size isn’t something he can’t overcome in the playoffs and hoglander hopefully can take another step.

 

we usually struggle vs vgk and I could see JM torch them in games we play them 

[RWJC]

Update:

 

Insider: A Turn of Events in Marchessault - Golden Knights Stalemate

 

Dave Litman Sunday, June 09, 2024 

 

 

The last we had heard from the Vegas Golden Knights' reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Marchessault a couple of weeks back, he was disappointed that the team had yet to reach out for any extension talks. 

On Sunday, we get an update from hockey insider Elliotte Friedman, on somewhat of a turning point in the stalemate with Vegas and the impending UFA. 

“It's clear from some people I heard from at the Combine, that those conversations at least have started. I can understand how a player can get frustrated, but teams will sometimes say 'look, we've got time'. But I'm under the impression from some things I've heard that at least the conversations have begun.”

 

It was 'frustrating' for both Marchessault, and no doubt Vegas fans, that their team leader was sort of twisting in the wind as his contract expired after their season came to an end after the first round of this year's playoffs. "I did not have a call yet or anything," he said at the time. 
 

Adding to his annoyance was the fact that he didn't want it to get this far in the first place. “I asked last summer. I was like, ‘You know what? I would rather do it in the summer before the season.’ And they said they’re not ready to do that, and after there’s not even a single talk that happened during the season,” Marchessault said. “I don’t know."

 

Now, there's no doubt that the Golden Knights have precious little, if any, cap space to play with, and it'll take some cap gymnastics to make it work, what with all the other things they need to get done this summer, so it's understandable that they're taking their time to figure things out. But they do have until June 30th to stave off Marchessault hitting free agency, so hopefully this new development is a harbinger that not all is lost just yet. 

Following his Conn Smythe playoff run in helping the team to the 2022-23 Stanley Cup championship, all Marchessault did for an encore this season was net a career-high 42 goals and 69 points. 
 

https://www.nhltraderumors.me/2024/06/insider-turn-of-events-in-marchessault.html

 

 

[fanfor42]

Vegas and the cap. Lol.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 10 by fanfor42

[Elias Pettersson]

Vegas is screwed. They don’t have access to CapFriendly any longer. They should have outbid Washington. 

[IBatch]

On 5/31/2024 at 9:46 AM, HKSR said:

I don't see only $3.25M for Joshua considering the type of game he brings on top of his production. 

 

But with that being said, what predictive model are you referring to?  I'm always interested in that kinda thing.

Not sure if I replied to this - AFPAnalytics does a good predictive model.     Another one (you will have a laugh at where they have Myers and some guys at), is Dobber Hockey, don't know where they get some of their numbers, but Myers at 1.8 isn't going to happen.     6.1 Hronek on short term, 7.4 and change term deal.    DJ 3.26 x 4.     Myers 3.1 x 2.      Lindholm  6.8 x 5.     Very different numbers then some that i've read on here, and of course this is just some math dudes dealio.     Different the ones offered already too if true (7 x 7 for Lindholm).  

 

There are close to 500 RFA/UFA deals to get done this year.   Yikes.   AFPAnalytics spreadsheet is quite something.  

[IBatch]

On 5/31/2024 at 12:19 PM, RWJC said:

Rumour I heard on podcast this morning is that the Laffs and VGK may have already discussed (early stage) a deal that sends Marner to VGK for Theodore+. TML would potentially pay the bonuses for both players but would also create a large amount of cap space to fill other holes, perhaps on D.

 

Hope this does not evolve, if any substance to it to begin with, because once again VGK comes out the winner.

Paying the bonus's is just a money thing, the AVV is what the cap will count for these guys.    They'd have to send a pretty big money guy with Theodore to make this work capwise. 

[Alflives]

50 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Not sure if I replied to this - AFPAnalytics does a good predictive model.     Another one (you will have a laugh at where they have Myers and some guys at), is Dobber Hockey, don't know where they get some of their numbers, but Myers at 1.8 isn't going to happen.     6.1 Hronek on short term, 7.4 and change term deal.    DJ 3.26 x 4.     Myers 3.1 x 2.      Lindholm  6.8 x 5.     Very different numbers then some that i've read on here, and of course this is just some math dudes dealio.     Different the ones offered already too if true (7 x 7 for Lindholm).  

 

There are close to 500 RFA/UFA deals to get done this year.   Yikes.   AFPAnalytics spreadsheet is quite something.  

Funny number projections. I wonder if those who project factor in who else is available as a UFA? For example Lindholm is the only top 2C of any consequence. He’s getting over 8 mil x 7 years from Boston. 

[IBatch]

32 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Funny number projections. I wonder if those who project factor in who else is available as a UFA? For example Lindholm is the only top 2C of any consequence. He’s getting over 8 mil x 7 years from Boston. 

 They factor in past signings, as well as positional availability's, no team specifics though.   As in what a certain team would pay, just pure market value as a baseline.   This off season, there are 500 RFA and UFA's that are competing to play.    The cap raise is going to be swallowed up this summer in full.   Still going to take time for things to settle down a bit.   And fully expect some GMs to overpay like usual.   

 

   One thing they stay out of is tax differences.    That's something personally, i'd like to see added to these models, what a low or no state tax team would sign for compared to the next tier (CAL, EDM, NYI, NYR, ANA,LA,SJ) and the tier we are in with OTT, TO and MTL, WNP etc.    An easy way to do that is just add 5% for middle tier and 10% for our tier, it's exactly where EP came in at, compared to his comps.   JB was blasted, for his deals.  JR came in and publicly stated he "misjudged" the market.   They get it now though.   Not as easy as PIT was.   Should have called Burke maybe first. 

 

    Agree with Burke; it's not easy to find guys who don't have the Canadian teams on a players lists (no trade lists sent at the start of the year, the first 7 all the Canadian teams, as a guy who was running Vancouver and CAL, he knows), or compete for UFAs, especially the big fish.   Look what Mike Gillis paid to land Sundin, absolutely nuts, and he was his agent.   Kick backs?   Sure seemed like to 10 x 2, thank god Sundin retired and didn't take the deal.  

 

  Lindholm might get that your right.    They committed to trying to keep it going by re-signing Pasta, who at the time, was smart enough to understand he might be part of a rebuild, which he didn't want to do.    Boston somehow, just keeps it going.    Lindholm could be playing with them next season your correct.

 

On this.   Thank god Zadarov wants to play in Vancouver, and both sides are working on a deal.    Players that want to stay (Miller, EP), we should be grateful.     Despite whatever they sign for.    Miller took a big pay cut to stay.  Expect Myers will sign for something like 2.75 x 3.    Or 3 x 2.     

 

Hronek have no clue on that one.   Doesn't seem that fond of the media.   And not sure he wants to stay either.  

 

Lindholm is another Swedish player.   That might help our odds of making a deal.    
 

If we managed to sign Geuntzal, for 9.5 x 7, that's a huge win by Allvin compared to what he'd get in most cities.   Massive really.   It could pay off massively too,  EP and Geuntzal could go on and win a cup for us next season.     If we have two great lines, expect our bottom six to be filled with PKers and rough and tumble sorts.    And lose Garland.  

Edited June 10 by IBatch

[IBatch]

30 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Funny number projections. I wonder if those who project factor in who else is available as a UFA? For example Lindholm is the only top 2C of any consequence. He’s getting over 8 mil x 7 years from Boston. 

Nope.   He likely signs our best offer, in Boston or somewhere else if money is the reason,  and here is why: 

 

The only way we can compete with this, is adding the 8th year.   Not an easy market.   We'd have to pay 8 ourselves, to compete with their 7.2 or so, just on money.  
 

Sweden is thankfully, something we have a long history with.   For any out there that hasn't realized this yet, it's one of Vancouver's competitive advantages compared to US city's.     

 

 

Edited June 10 by IBatch

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Nope.   He likely signs our best offer, in Boston or somewhere else if money is the reason,  and here is why: 

 

The only way we can compete with this, is adding the 8th year.   Not an easy market.   We'd have to pay 8 ourselves, to compete with their 7.2 or so. 

 

 

30% added to players’ pay after exchange from US to Canadian dollars. This is old news. the whole tax thing is a wash when factoring in exchange. 
We need to go 7.3 x 8 to match Boston’s 8.5 x 7.  

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Not sure if I replied to this - AFPAnalytics does a good predictive model.     Another one (you will have a laugh at where they have Myers and some guys at), is Dobber Hockey, don't know where they get some of their numbers, but Myers at 1.8 isn't going to happen.     6.1 Hronek on short term, 7.4 and change term deal.    DJ 3.26 x 4.     Myers 3.1 x 2.      Lindholm  6.8 x 5.     Very different numbers then some that i've read on here, and of course this is just some math dudes dealio.     Different the ones offered already too if true (7 x 7 for Lindholm).  

 

There are close to 500 RFA/UFA deals to get done this year.   Yikes.   AFPAnalytics spreadsheet is quite something.  

All of those numbers look low to me.  Even Myers who on the open market could probably fetch $4M per.  Shah recently said Yzerman is already prepared to offer north of $4M AAV for Joshua.

 

Edit:  Oops, I was just referring to the guys you mentioned. Zadorov, Blueger, Lafferty, Cole, DeSmith, and Friedman look about right to me.

 

Edited June 10 by HKSR

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, Alflives said:

30% added to players’ pay after exchange from US to Canadian dollars. This is old news. the whole tax thing is a wash when factoring in exchange. 
We need to go 7.3 x 8 to match Boston’s 8.5 x 7.  

Everyone gets paid in US dollars - it's a zero factor (well not really, it actually makes it worse for Canadian franchise's we lost two as a result, and almost lost our team as well).   And is very very old news, going back to why we lost Bure.   He wanted US dollars.   As did everyone else.   And for good reason the two were not the same.  

 

Any of these guys can buy a house in Canada on the strength of US dollars, or a car.   Or whatever.   And the US dollar is why cars are 40% more in Canada than they are in the US.   Even with the exchange, it's cheaper down there to buy a vehicle.   Using Canadian currency, until you pay your "duty" on it.    So if a player can make 16.5% more US dollars... well I don't think you understand.   Despite many efforts to explain.    It's why EP isn't getting paid MT 9.5-10.5 like Barkov.   Ok.  It's also why Bobrovsky is making the same as McDavid. 
 

It's also why average Joes's don't go the US when our dollar sucks or bite it and do it anyways.    It's not that hard to understand.    They win until the Canadian dollar is higher.    That's happened exactly twice in my lifetime (reached par or gone above).  And that doesn't even get into taxes.   Imagine the real estate and business opportunities with all that extra US dollars.   Canadian NHLers in the US, do so much better than they do playing in Canada, they've also got citizenship, plus a way fatter wallet.   

 

Edit:  Canadian teams are at a massive disadvantage.   Their gate revenue is in Canadian dollars.   They pay their athletes in US funds.    Our athletes are taxed based on where they live and play.   It's complicated in the US, but not overly.    They pay based on their home state plus where they play the away games.    Thing is, if the cap didn't come in, maybe just TO and MTL would have survived.   That's it.    Vancouver was toast or close to toast.   EDM and CAL, maybe one of them would have survived if they merged their fanbase which never was going to happen.    Look at the free market with baseball.   Yikes.   How would we compete with the NYR?  Or what DET did in 2002?  Can't.    For all the hate towards Bettman, we should be thanking him.   Otherwise the US would have mostly gobbled up our NHL, and we'd have to cheer for the Habs, or Seattle Orca's circa 2004-2007.   

Edited June 10 by IBatch

[Coconuts]

 

 

[RupertKBD]

On 5/30/2024 at 5:29 PM, R3aL said:

You think we are trading him?

 

He's been saying this for a couple of weeks now....

 

In one of the other threads, he made the claim that the Canucks were trying to trade Garland, which was a big surprise to me, since word is they are trying to add scoring, not subtract....

 

I asked him what his source was and he said he heard it on the radio. Turns out it was a convo about the 'Nucks trying to shed salary and the guys were spitballing on which players the team would be trying to move. Alf got offended that I didn't consider this confirmation that the team was shopping Garly and he's been repeating the "trade Garland" thing now in every thread and in every other post....

 

....as if repeating it often enough will make it come to pass....