[Speculation] Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

[RWJC]

Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks

 

May 29th, 2024 at 8:22am CST • By Josh Erickson

 

Free agency is now just a bit more than a month away, and teams are looking ahead to when it opens. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free-agent situation for the Canucks.

 

Key Restricted Free Agents:

 

D Filip Hronek – Talk about an ideal contract year. After an injury-plagued stint in Vancouver to end last season following his acquisition from the Red Wings, Hronek began the season on the team’s top defense pairing alongside Quinn Hughes and never looked back. He recorded career highs with 43 assists, 48 points and a +33 rating, although, as critics point out, most of that production came on an early-season tear. The 26-year-old had three assists in 16 games after the trade deadline and was limited to a goal and an assist in 13 postseason games, both coming in Games 6 and 7 of their second-round loss to the Oilers. With reports indicating his ask is in the $8MM neighborhood annually, the Canucks are likely to shop his signing rights around with an unwillingness to dole out that kind of cash with the way he ended his season.

 

G Arturs Silovs – A couple of months ago, Silovs wouldn’t have had anything to do with a “key restricted free agents” moniker after serving as the club’s AHL starter for most of the campaign. However, injuries to Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith forced him into action for Game 4 of the first round against the Predators, and the 23-year-old Latvian remained in the crease for the rest of their playoff run. While Demko would have been an upgrade if available, Silovs was serviceable, posting a .898 SV%, one shutout and allowed 0.2 goals above expected, per MoneyPuck. After posting a .898 SV% and 6-2-1 record in nine regular-season appearances over the last two seasons, he’s in line for a cheap deal to make him Demko’s full-time backup moving forward. Silovs, who led Latvia to a bronze medal at the 2023 World Championship, had a 2.74 GAA, .907 SV%, four shutouts and a 16-11-6 record in 34 games for AHL Abbotsford this season.

 

Other RFAs: D Nick Cicek, D Filip Johansson, F Linus Karlsson, F Aidan McDonough, D Cole McWard, D Jett Woo
 

 

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

 

 

D Ian Cole – While Cole had some notable individual blunders in the playoffs, he had a solid regular season in Vancouver that proved he’s still a fringe top-four blue liner as he enters his mid-30s. Much like his showing last season with the Lightning, he was a strong shutdown force, controlling 53% of expected goals at 5-on-5 despite 63.6% of his zone starts coming in the defensive end. Adding 11 points in 78 games as well, Cole is in line for a deal similar to the one-year, $3MM pact that brought him to the Canucks last summer. He turned 35 in February, so he can take a 35+ contract with performance bonuses to lower his cap hit artificially if Vancouver wants to bring him back but runs out of space. However, if he meets his performance bonuses and the Canucks can’t afford to accommodate them, they’ll be applied as a cap penalty in 2025-26.

 

 

F Dakota Joshua – A Maple Leafs draft pick back in 2014, Joshua has been on a steady rise since they moved his rights to the Blues shortly before the pandemic. He parlayed that into an everyday role with the Canucks upon reaching Group Six UFA status in 2022 and had a career year this season, posting 18 goals and 32 points in only 63 games while costing just $825K against the cap. He averaged solid third-line minutes at 14:23 per game and had nearly all of his production come at even strength, notching only one power-play point. The 28-year-old had positive relative possession numbers, too. Unfortunately, that means he’s one of the likelier candidates to have priced himself out of Vancouver, earning himself a multi-million dollar raise wherever he signs this summer.

 

F Elias Lindholm – The Canucks gave up quite a haul for Lindholm at the end of January, giving the Flames a large package that included a first-round pick and middle-six sniper Andrei Kuzmenko to acquire the 2022 Selke Trophy finalist. His performance in the regular season left much to be desired, potting only six goals and 12 points in 26 games after the deal. Still, he exploded back to form in the postseason with 10 points and a +4 rating in 13 games while logging nearly 20 minutes a night, tying for third on the club in scoring. That’s likely repaired a good chunk of his market value after having an extremely underwhelming contract year. After finishing the campaign with 44 points and a -14 rating in 75 games, he won’t command the upward of $8MM per season he left on the table for an extension in Calgary, but he should still get something in the $6MM-$7MM annually on a longer-term deal. Whether that comes in Vancouver or with one of his other expected suitors, namely the Bruins, remains to be seen.

 

 

D Tyler Myers – The final season of Myers’ bloated five-year, $30MM deal was his best hockey in Vancouver. He dropped down to a second/third-pairing role, averaging under 20 minutes per game for the first time in his lengthy career, but responded with 29 points and a 49.8% expected goals share at 5-on-5, his best as a Canuck. Vancouver and Myers would both like to see him back in a Canucks uniform next season, something they should be able to get done at a significant pay cut from his previous $6MM cap hit as he enters his age-34 season.

 

 

D Nikita Zadorov – Also an in-season trade pickup from Calgary, Zadorov quickly became a fan favorite in Vancouver and was, bar none, their second-best defenseman in the playoffs behind Quinn Hughes. The towering Russian rattled off four goals and eight points in 13 postseason contests, averaging over 20 minutes per game after logging 17:04 per game in the regular season after the trade. Reports indicate his camp is asking for a six-year deal at $6MM annually – likely too rich for the Canucks’ taste (or anybody’s taste, for that matter). If his camp gets the sense that he won’t be able to achieve that figure on the open market, it wouldn’t surprise anybody to see this generation’s Big Z end up back in Vancouver.

 

 

Other UFAs: F Teddy Blueger, G Casey DeSmith, F Sheldon Dries, D Mark Friedman, D Matt Irwin, F Sam Lafferty, G Zach Sawchenko

 

 

Projected Cap Space

 

 

The Canucks enter the summer with roughly $23.75MM in cap space. However,h they’re likely operating with an internal figure closer to $26.25MM with the final season of defenseman Tucker Poolman‘s contract slated for long-term injured reserve again in 2024-25. It’s a solid chunk of change – they’re still below the $64.7MM floor for next season – but the space will disappear quickly as they have likely $13-15MM committed to either re-signing Hronek and Lindholm or for their replacements.

 

Take another $5MM out for what Zadorov will likely command for an extension at this stage, and it’s clear not everyone on this list will be back next season. They have a solid chance of retaining most of their expiring talent, but whether they want to pay market value for someone like Lindholm or look for a more undervalued replacement on the open market remains to be seen. Expect General Manager of the Year Award finalist Patrik Allvin to be one of the busier GMs this offseason as he navigates what could be a fair amount of roster turnover for the defending Pacific Division champions.

 

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/05/free-agent-focus-vancouver-canucks-7.html#ref=home

Edited May 29 by RWJC

[RWJC]

Article makes it sound as though we’re in a fair bit of trouble in terms of how to manage raises and replace potential losses but I think we’re in relatively decent shape going forward. And Z better come down in his asking price because he should only be in our jersey 

[Ghostsof1915]

Maybe Lindholm didn't want to stay in Calgary? That's why he turned down Calgary's offer?

[DrJockitch]

If Toronto can clear some cap I could see them spend big on Zads.

[HKSR]

The more I look at the numbers, the more I think we walk from Joshua.  I believe PA/JR talked about finding the next Dakota Joshua... perhaps foreshadowing what they expect to happen.

[Bob Long]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

The more I look at the numbers, the more I think we walk from Joshua.  I believe PA/JR talked about finding the next Dakota Joshua... perhaps foreshadowing what they expect to happen.

 

we have just over 26 mil in cap space if you include LTIR, thats enough to bring in more high end scoring talent and retain some of the size this group had. 

 

For me, I'd rather retain the big players in the d group and let F's like Joshua go, if the cap won't allow both. Its way easier to find F's that can fit into Tocc's style. 

 

[HKSR]

Just now, Bob Long said:

 

we have just over 26 mil in cap space if you include LTIR, thats enough to bring in more high end scoring talent and retain some of the size this group had. 

 

For me, I'd rather retain the big players in the d group and let F's like Joshua go, if the cap won't allow both. Its way easier to find F's that can fit into Tocc's style. 

 

Yeah, my thoughts are if Joshua is pushing close to $4M AAV, we're better off spending a bit more and finding a top 6F instead.  Love the game Joshua brings, but at $4M, a 3rd liner who isn't a centre shouldn't be making that much.

[Bob Long]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah, my thoughts are if Joshua is pushing close to $4M AAV, we're better off spending a bit more and finding a top 6F instead.  Love the game Joshua brings, but at $4M, a 3rd liner who isn't a centre shouldn't be making that much.

 

would you take Lindy at 8, for a Mik buyout plus Joshua walking? 

Edited May 29 by Bob Long

[fuzzy]

8 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah, my thoughts are if Joshua is pushing close to $4M AAV, we're better off spending a bit more and finding a top 6F instead.  Love the game Joshua brings, but at $4M, a 3rd liner who isn't a centre shouldn't be making that much.

Agreed

 

[HKSR]

15 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

would you take Lindy at 8, for a Mik buyout plus Joshua walking? 

No... only cuz I don't think Lindy is worth 8.  If we got a legitimate player worth $8m though, I think that would help us a lot more than Joshua and Mikheyev.

[Ghostsof1915]

51 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

If Toronto can clear some cap I could see them spend big on Zads.

They wouldn't do that.

Zads can actually play defence. That goes against the Shannaplan!

[DrJockitch]

27 minutes ago, HKSR said:

The more I look at the numbers, the more I think we walk from Joshua.  I believe PA/JR talked about finding the next Dakota Joshua... perhaps foreshadowing what they expect to happen.

I would go to about $3M for Joshua on 4-5 years. He has proven himself very valuable but has only done it for short time. UFA is UFA you always give more term or money than you might have wished, unless Benning is around and you give both. 
‘I think Lindholm will look around but not find quite the money he is looking for but with Utah looking to spend it could be a different off-season. Who is going to eat bad contracts now, even Chicago seems to be willing to start spending again. 

[Provost]

I think there will be a couple trades that impact our offseason.  You can’t shop to fill all holes in free agency, there are teams like Utah who can outbid you.

 

It is probably even odds that Hronek is moved.  It is the same as Petterson, you can’t let this draw out and risk having your offseason entirely paralyzed because you are waiting for an arb decision and don’t know how much he will cost.  It if isn’t signed by the draft you need to move his rights.  Utah currently has exactly zero defence signed for next season, they would likely be very happy to trade for him, and you can likely package up Mikheyev in that deal.

 

There are a bunch of teams really needing goaltending.  Silovs has cranked his value up to being a candidate as a starter.  If we need to fill holes, he is a luxury and his value may be at an all time high.  He is definitely trade bait if we need a chip to use.

[Nucker67]

I hope they don't buy out Mikheyev, that would really mess the cap up even more for the Canucks for a few years. He's got 2 years left, and if he can't be traded, then I hope they can work with him to make him better. Maybe the new special teams coach will turn Mik into a superb forechecker and PK specialist with his speed. He sure doesn't have the hands for scoring. Well, there's hope he can still be a useful player anyway.

 

 

[DownUndaCanuck]

I could see us give Toffoli 5M x 3 years or something silly and lose a defenceman to help Petey, especially with how our season ended. We've got to remember what made us great - solid big defencemen.

 

This Hronek situation is getting silly but surely we keep him at 7.5M or trade him and go after a cheaper UFA.

 

Same could be said for Zadorov at 5.5M.

[fuzzy]

34 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I would go to about $3M for Joshua on 4-5 years. He has proven himself very valuable but has only done it for short time. UFA is UFA you always give more term or money than you might have wished, unless Benning is around and you give both. 
‘I think Lindholm will look around but not find quite the money he is looking for but with Utah looking to spend it could be a different off-season. Who is going to eat bad contracts now, even Chicago seems to be willing to start spending again. 

I love Joshua at his current cap hit.

 

I like Joshua at 2 mil

 

I don't like Joshua at anything higher.

 

I don't see them giving Joshua more than 2 mil. He's a nice player but not irreplaceable.

[DeNiro]

8 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I could see us give Toffoli 5M x 3 years or something silly and lose a defenceman to help Petey, especially with how our season ended. We've got to remember what made us great - solid big defencemen.

 

This Hronek situation is getting silly but surely we keep him at 7.5M or trade him and go after a cheaper UFA.

 

Same could be said for Zadorov at 5.5M.

They want speed in the lineup, that ain’t Toffoli. Canucks fans need to let him go. 

 

Trade for Necas or sign Guenztel. Those will be the main targets if we trade Hronek if I had to guess.

 

Either Hronek straight up for Necas or get picks prospects that can be flipped for another D and sign Guenztel.

[DeNiro]

2 minutes ago, fuzzy said:

I love Joshua at his current cap hit.

 

I like Joshua at 2 mil

 

I don't like Joshua at anything higher.

 

I don't see them giving Joshua more than 2 mil. He's a nice player but not irreplaceable.

Joshua still has to prove that season wasn’t a one off.

 

A short term show me deal makes the most sense for both sides. If he can do it for two more seasons he can earn one big payday.

[Don Brodka Jr]

I'll be LIVID if they actually sign Joshua to anything above $3M per year.. let some other team make that mistake.
Lindholm is as good as gone, He probably will get north of $7M per year from a team like Boston. I'd like to see Zadorov back but not if it starts if it starts with $6M per year though. They just got rid of the Tyler Myers headache why create another one? 

[Blitz-Pix]

33 minutes ago, Nucker67 said:

I hope they don't buy out Mikheyev, that would really mess the cap up even more for the Canucks for a few years. He's got 2 years left, and if he can't be traded, then I hope they can work with him to make him better. Maybe the new special teams coach will turn Mik into a superb forechecker and PK specialist with his speed. He sure doesn't have the hands for scoring. Well, there's hope he can still be a useful player anyway.

 

 

 

If we have to move Mikheyev, I'd rather see us retain up to $1.75 million on his contract, rather than buy him out.

It may hurt a little (short term) but he'd be off our books in 2 seasons. At $3+ mill a season I think he has value to other teams. 

 

[fuzzy]

1 minute ago, DeNiro said:

Joshua still has to prove that season wasn’t a one off.

 

A short term show me deal makes the most sense for both sides. If he can do it for two more seasons he can earn one big payday.

Agreed

[AlexanderM]

First thing, they'll ask Hronek, do you want to be here, if so, sign a deal that makes sense, or he'll be traded, that should happen fairly quickly. Same thing with Lindstrom, or his rights will be dealt. Then go from there, everything else follows those two decisions. I expect PA to get out in front of these quickly. 

[DrJockitch]

6 minutes ago, fuzzy said:

I love Joshua at his current cap hit.

 

I like Joshua at 2 mil

 

I don't like Joshua at anything higher.

 

I don't see them giving Joshua more than 2 mil. He's a nice player but not irreplaceable.

I could see a Chicago or Utah giving him quite a bit. Doubt 2 gets it done but with PA all bets are off. 

[fuzzy]

3 minutes ago, Don Brodka Jr said:

I'll be LIVID if they actually sign Joshua to anything above $3M per year.. let some other team make that mistake.
Lindholm is as good as gone, He probably will get north of $7M per year from a team like Boston. I'd like to see Zadorov back but not if it starts if it starts with $6M per year though. They just got rid of the Tyler Myers headache why create another one? 

I have a feeling we'll resign Lindholm for around 6.5 and Zadorov for around 5. These are players mgmt targeted and brought in. They will move other players first imo

[Rekker]

19 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Joshua still has to prove that season wasn’t a one off.

 

A short term show me deal makes the most sense for both sides. If he can do it for two more seasons he can earn one big payday.

100 percent. Joshua did show up to start the year in less than ideal shape. Tochett commented on it. He's also playing with a spark blug puck hound in Garland. I'm all for a decent two year show me deal but I hope management stays away from any long term big money deal. Great player, love him, but still has a lot to prove.