[Discussion]Too much hype around Necas

[Rekker]

18 minutes ago, rmok said:

That makes NO sense. Even if Necas was worth that (and he isn't)  top pairing RD are way more valuable and way harder to find

Maybe this. What if the trade was Hronek and Mik (cap dump) for Necas. I really like Necas game.

[Jester13]

Necas is a prime candidate for a bigger role, and alongside Petey...

[DeNiro]

9 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

Necas is a prime candidate for a bigger role, and alongside Petey...

I think it’s worth a gamble if the cost isnt crazy. Playing it safe isn’t gonna get us another elite top 6 player. At some point you gotta gamble.

 

Getting a player like this that could very well be ready to break out would accelerate this teams arc big time. Imagine adding a Pastrnak just entering his prime? Not saying he’ll be that good but even a fraction of that is a hell of a player.

 

 

Edited June 1 by DeNiro

[wai_lai416]

5 hours ago, Blitz-Pix said:

 

It's the same situation as Lindholm IMO...you got Miller and Petey ahead of him, you can't really pay Lindholm (who's a very good player) 8 million a season to play 3rd line center.    

at least they can play lindholm in the top 6.. carolina have no room for necas in the top 6 at all he doesnt play center and he doesnt play LW.. and there's 2 guys ahead of him in rw

[IBatch]

On 5/31/2024 at 6:43 PM, HKSR said:

If you've watched Necas play, he's a very good player.  The reason Carolina is looking to move him is the same reason why the Canucks would even consider moving Hronek... too much cap, not enough cap space.  To me, it looks like Necas is ready to break out into a PPG+ player.

They want to take a run at Geuntzal.   So they need to find cap.    Necas has value.   

[Blitz-Pix]

20 hours ago, rmok said:

Its not like there is some rule that says you can't have three good lines with three good centers that share minutes. There also isn't a rule that says petey can't be the 'elite' winger and lindholm his center. 

There is also no rule that we all have to pretend that Necas is some elite top 6 forward when his numbers going back 5 seasons don't show that AT ALL. In the last 5 years the guy has had one good season.. not great or super star season.. but good. And it wasn't even this year.. it was last year so he has regressed. And people are talking about him being the 'elite winger' answer? Talking about locking him up to a contract similar to lindholm or guentzel? Its crazy. 

 

Who said anything about rules? LOL

 

It just comes down to asset allocation and where you want to spend your money IMO...a center making 8 million on the 3rd line doesn't make sense (to me).

Necas is 25 years old (12th O/A pick), and primarily played on the 3rd line this season. He offers the Canucks something they don't have a lot of... SPEED, YOUTH and a little more size. I THINK the idea would be to acquire Necas before he breaks out playing with better players, higher up the line up and getting more PP time.

 

To me it's very similar when we acquired JT Miller... a trade that a lot of people didn't like at the time.

Miller (15th O/A pick) was playing on the 3rd line, getting middle 6 minutes. He was 25-26 and had never put up more than 55 points in a season.

With a bigger opportunity, top line minutes and PP opportunity he flourished....Granted he did have term left on his $5.35 million contract.  

 

Lindholm and Guentzel are great players but at 29-30 years old I'd have concern with 7 or 8 year contract. It would be fine for the first 4 years or so (IMO)

but years 5-8 would hurt...not to mention Miller will be 35 or so at the time and still have 2 years left on his contract. Those guys are going to slow down (or regress) at some point.

 

FWIW.... If your concerned Necas game regressed this year then you should be VERY CONCERNED about Lindholm's game the past 2 years. 

OR... perhaps players just have off years, injuries or aren't getting the same opportunities as before.  Just a thought. 

   

 

 

Edited June 2 by Blitz-Pix

[Blitz-Pix]

15 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

at least they can play lindholm in the top 6.. carolina have no room for necas in the top 6 at all he doesnt play center and he doesnt play LW.. and there's 2 guys ahead of him in rw

 

I agree with you, however Tocchet doesn't seem to feel the same way.

He seems to prefer him down the middle, and using him in matchups, which isn't fixing our top 6 issue that Alvin wants to address.  

[R3aL]

2 hours ago, Blitz-Pix said:

 

Who said anything about rules? LOL

 

It just comes down to asset allocation and where you want to spend your money IMO...a center making 8 million on the 3rd line doesn't make sense (to me).

Necas is 25 years old (12th O/A pick), and primarily played on the 3rd line this season. He offers the Canucks something they don't have a lot of... SPEED, YOUTH and a little more size. I THINK the idea would be to acquire Necas before he breaks out playing with better players, higher up the line up and getting more PP time.

 

To me it's very similar when we acquired JT Miller... a trade that a lot of people didn't like at the time.

Miller (15th O/A pick) was playing on the 3rd line, getting middle 6 minutes. He was 25-26 and had never put up more than 55 points in a season.

With a bigger opportunity, top line minutes and PP opportunity he flourished....Granted he did have term left on his $5.35 million contract.  

 

Lindholm and Guentzel are great players but at 29-30 years old I'd have concern with 7 or 8 year contract. It would be fine for the first 4 years or so (IMO)

but years 5-8 would hurt...not to mention Miller will be 35 or so at the time and still have 2 years left on his contract. Those guys are going to slow down (or regress) at some point.

 

FWIW.... If your concerned Necas game regressed this year then you should be VERY CONCERNED about Lindholm's game the past 2 years. 

OR... perhaps players just have off years, injuries or aren't getting the same opportunities as before.  Just a thought. 

   

 

 

Lindy and guentzel are both players that don’t bank on their speed to be effective players so you could project they stay effective into their 30s but for sure it’s a risk.

 

Agree 30-34 should be solid years regardless though unless injured. And it’s the 35-36 years that will be the risk and then 37 I think you can expect serious regression for sure. 
 

not everyone is Crosby / pavelski

 

necas is a gamble too in his own way one that you have to pay to play.

 

you have to pay him based on a projection bet and hope he delivers value and is the player projected because he hasn’t done it yet. So he worry’s me a little too.

 

and he also worries me with fit if he wants to be a C. I think his best season in NHL was at C too so I think the team that trades for him will want to deploy him as a C and that’s where he probably will want to sing long term. I don’t think we acquire Necas 

[Blitz-Pix]

1 hour ago, R3aL said:

Lindy and guentzel are both players that don’t bank on their speed to be effective players so you could project they stay effective into their 30s but for sure it’s a risk.

 

Agree 30-34 should be solid years regardless though unless injured. And it’s the 35-36 years that will be the risk and then 37 I think you can expect serious regression for sure. 
 

not everyone is Crosby / pavelski

 

necas is a gamble too in his own way one that you have to pay to play.

 

you have to pay him based on a projection bet and hope he delivers value and is the player projected because he hasn’t done it yet. So he worry’s me a little too.

 

and he also worries me with fit if he wants to be a C. I think his best season in NHL was at C too so I think the team that trades for him will want to deploy him as a C and that’s where he probably will want to sing long term. I don’t think we acquire Necas 

 

Agreed...It doesn't matter who they sign, there is RISK involved either way.  

 

Lindholm & Guentzel risks are: Age, Salary & Term

 

- Downside - I believe both missed time this season due to injuries, often it takes longer to bounce back as you get older, it COULD be an issue for them moving                                           forward...second issue is cost and term. We can't have to many 30+ y/o players on the team, in a conference where size & speed kill.

                      As I stated before the first 4 years should be fine...from 35-38 is where the signing would hurt us (IMO)

 

- Upside Guentzel - a proven performer (regular season and playoffs) and MGT should know the player their getting. 

- Upside Lindholm - a very good 2 way player that can kill penalties and great in the dot, MGT should have a good read on him by now

                                  could play up and down your lineup. 

 

Martin Necas risks: Chemistry 

 

- Upside - Only 25 and PROBABLY just hitting his most productive seasons , highly skilled forward with ELITE SPEED in the 97th and 99th percentile,

                  can play both wing and center and adds size. Checks all 3 of MGT's boxes (Speed, Youth & Size) - a 7 or 8 year contract should buy his                          most productive year and allows him to grow with the team...much like Miller, Petey, Brock, Hughes and Demko have. 

 

-Downside - MGT is not familiar with the player, might not be the right fit, not sure if he can kill penalties...although with that speed I think he would be given 

                     every opportunity. A red flag (for me) is his father's comments about not playing for Carolina anymore. He says, his son wants first line minutes and PP

                     time (or opportunity). I'm not a fan of players (their parents or agents) telling a team how they should be deployed. Maybe his Dad's comments were lost 

                     in translation, but off-puting for me none the less. I'm not interested in difficult players disrupting team chemisrty

 

 

Personally I don't think Guentzel makes it to FA ...

 

25 Year OLD - Martin Necas  NHL Stats:  .6712 PPG over his NHL career

29 Year OLD - Elais Lindholms NHL Stats:  .6809 PPG over his NHL career 

 

Which guy would you wanna sign to an 7 or 8 year contract...youth and speed heading into his prime or...

steady and expierenced vet at or near his peak...there's no wrong answers just RISK either way.  

 

  

 

 

Edited June 2 by Blitz-Pix

[Tower102]

On 5/31/2024 at 3:50 PM, Bob Long said:

 

the scenario where it makes sense to me is if Hronek just won't move off 8+ mil and we only have him for one more year. In that instance, if we can move him for a young shooter like Necas with years of control left you do it. 

 

And as long as Necas comes in cheaper. We only move Hronek to alleviate cap problems, not as a sideways move on cap.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Blitz-Pix said:

 

Agreed...It doesn't matter who they sign, there is RISK involved either way.  

 

Lindholm & Guentzel risks are: Age, Salary & Term

 

- Downside - I believe both missed time this season due to injuries, often it takes longer to bounce back as you get older, it COULD be an issue for them moving                                           forward...second issue is cost and term. We can't have to many 30+ y/o players on the team, in a conference where size & speed kill.

                      As I stated before the first 4 years should be fine...from 35-38 is where the signing would hurt us (IMO)

 

- Upside Guentzel - a proven performer (regular season and playoffs) and MGT should know the player their getting. 

- Upside Lindholm - a very good 2 way player that can kill penalties and great in the dot, MGT should have a good read on him by now

                                  could play up and down your lineup. 

 

Martin Necas risks: Chemistry 

 

- Upside - Only 25 and PROBABLY just hitting his most productive seasons , highly skilled forward with ELITE SPEED in the 97th and 99th percentile,

                  can play both wing and center and adds size. Checks all 3 of MGT's boxes (Speed, Youth & Size) - a 7 or 8 year contract should buy his most productive years

                  and allows him to grow with the team...much like Miller, Petey, Brock, Hughes and Demko have. 

 

-Downside - MGT is not familiar with the player, might not be the right fit, not sure if he can kill penalties...although with that speed I think he would be given 

                     every opportunity. A red flag (for me) is his father's comments about not playing for Carolina anymore. He says, his son wants first line minutes and PP

                     time (or opportunity). I'm not a fan of players (their parents or agents) telling a team how they should be deployed. Maybe his Dad's comments were lost 

                     in translation, but off-puting for me none the less. I'm not interested in difficult players disrupting team chemisrty

 

 

Personally I don't think Guentzel makes it to FA ...

 

25 Year OLD - Martin Necas  NHL Stats:  .6712 PPG over his NHL career

29 Year OLD - Elais Lindholms NHL Stats:  .6809 PPG over his NHL career 

 

Which guy would you wanna sign to an 7 or 8 year contract...youth and speed heading into his prime or...

steady and expierenced vet at or near his peak...there's no wrong answers just RISK either way.  

 

  

 

 

Not too sure Nrcas plays well enough without the puck to be a good fit here. 

[Blitz-Pix]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Not too sure Nrcas plays well enough without the puck to be a good fit here. 

 

Perhaps that's why Brind'amour is playing him on the 3rd line...maybe trying to build up his game.

Rod and Tocc kinda seem like "peas in a pod" to me, both very system oriented coaches.

 

Edited June 2 by Blitz-Pix

[Alflives]

Just now, Blitz-Pix said:

 

Perhaps that's why Brind'amour is playing him on the 3rd line...perhaps trying to build up his game.

Rod and Tocc kinda seem like "peas in a pod" to me, both very system oriented coaches.

 

Yup. There’s a way to play that looks fancy and fun and then there’s playing winning hockey. 

[Blitz-Pix]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Yup. There’s a way to play that looks fancy and fun and then there’s playing winning hockey. 

 

FWIW...I'm not suggesting we SHOULD go after Necas...but I understand why Management likes him so much.

I'm excited over what he COULD become... a bonafide star. all some players need is an opportunity.

 

To me, it's kinda like Miller's situation 5 years ago in Tampa Bay.

 

 

[Alflives]

Just now, Blitz-Pix said:

 

FWIW...I'm not suggesting we SHOULD go after Necas...but I understand why Management likes him so much.

I'm excited over what he COULD become... a bonafide star. all some players need is an opportunity.

 

To me, it's kinda like Miller's situation 5 years ago in Tampa Bay.

 

 

Yup. Depends on the cost to acquire and what Nescas expects in his next contract. His speed through the neutral zone would certainly open up more room for Petey. Maybe the Canes like Garland? 
Garland + Hronek for Nescas + + + 

[cripplereh]

3 hours ago, Alflives said:

Not too sure Nrcas plays well enough without the puck to be a good fit here. 

He is young and can learn better ways,look at how Joshua turned it around.

 

 

We have great coaches to help players.

[cripplereh]

3 hours ago, Alflives said:

Yup. Depends on the cost to acquire and what Nescas expects in his next contract. His speed through the neutral zone would certainly open up more room for Petey. Maybe the Canes like Garland? 
Garland + Hronek for Nescas + + + 

That's an over payment.

 

RHD's with skill are worth way more.If anything they would have to add at very least a 3rd without us adding Garland.

[Alflives]

16 minutes ago, cripplereh said:

That's an over payment.

 

RHD's with skill are worth way more.If anything they would have to add at very least a 3rd without us adding Garland.

Hence the + + +
 

[The Lock]

On 5/31/2024 at 2:19 PM, Blue said:

This reminds me of the David Clarkson hype.(I know he was a free agent)

 

If Necas isn't good enough for Carolina at his price point , then he ain't good enough for the Canucks. Every team seems to be interested in him. Hard pass

 

With that logic though, you might as well question why any team would trade any player.

 

I don't know whether Necas is right for us or not, but the logic of "if 1 team doesn't want him at a price point why would we?" is essentially ignoring:
- Each team's makeup

- The salary cap

- What each player brings to our team as opposed to the other team

- Supply and demand, etc

 

Necas is very much expendable for Carolina as they already have at least 2 solid forward lines without him. They don't want to pay a 3rd liner top 6 money. However, he'd likely be top 6 for us; therefore, that same paycheck is better for us based on that logic alone. Again, that all depends on if he feels right for our team, but it shows there's reasoning behind it.

[Diamonds]

25 minutes ago, The Lock said:

 

With that logic though, you might as well question why any team would trade any player.

 

I don't know whether Necas is right for us or not, but the logic of "if 1 team doesn't want him at a price point why would we?" is essentially ignoring:
- Each team's makeup

- The salary cap

- What each player brings to our team as opposed to the other team

- Supply and demand, etc

 

Necas is very much expendable for Carolina as they already have at least 2 solid forward lines without him. They don't want to pay a 3rd liner top 6 money. However, he'd likely be top 6 for us; therefore, that same paycheck is better for us based on that logic alone. Again, that all depends on if he feels right for our team, but it shows there's reasoning behind it.

Yep, just because a player isn't the best player in the world doesn't mean they don't have value.

 

For Carolina, Necas is a luxury. Seth Jarvis has supplanted him in Carolina's lineup which has made him not necessary. It doesn't mean Necas isn't good, just that Jarvis is slightly better. However, the Canucks desperately need another top 6 winger so there's a very clear role for Necas here. On the Canucks, only our top two centers in Miller and Pettersson are better than Necas (and Boeser this year but might just be on par going forward).

 

Additionally, Carolina might be able to re-sign Teravainen for cheaper to fill out their top 6 which also contributes to Necas being made available.

[rmok]

6 hours ago, Blitz-Pix said:

 

Agreed...It doesn't matter who they sign, there is RISK involved either way.  

 

Lindholm & Guentzel risks are: Age, Salary & Term

 

 

 

Martin Necas risks: Chemistry 

 

 

 

  

 

 

Um.... Salary and term are also risks for Necas.

They are in fact even bigger risks for Necas because he has never proven that he is a high level player. You are going to give up assets... and have to sign him at big $$$ and for term for a guy that has shown nothing in the league. The overating of a 3rd line 45ish point player is just wild to me. 

I wouldn't sign Guentzel for big $$ and term either .. he's old and a winger. 

Lindholm at least has value in multiple areas of the game.. 

But if they are giving up assets.. and signing for term and giving $$$$ they need to be going for a SURE THING not a maybe. I'd rather package Lek a couple of 1sts and something else to try to pry Tkachuk out of ottawa. He's 24, singed for a few years still, and is a legit power forward with legit multi year record of scoring. Thats the kind of player they should be committing to long term at big money for Petey's wing. Not a guy that has shown virtually nothing. 

[wai_lai416]

10 hours ago, Blitz-Pix said:

 

I agree with you, however Tocchet doesn't seem to feel the same way.

He seems to prefer him down the middle, and using him in matchups, which isn't fixing our top 6 issue that Alvin wants to address.  

that's a tocchet thing.. if given the choice he rather have a miller line followed by 9 grinders.. he doesn't like free flowing offensive hockey.. he likes low event park the bus style.. we have the 7th lowest shots on goals in the league for a reason.. he even said it in one of his playoff press conference.. he doesn't want his team to shoot unless it's a high % shot.. prolly why his team doesn't shoot on the powerplay.. if it's a borderline good shot/bad shot.. they won't take it... this style of hockey puts so much extra fatigue on the players.. imagine parking the bus allowing the other team to shoot 70-80 attempts a game and then blocking as many shots as we can.. the team will be beat up before the playoff even start.

[Blitz-Pix]

1 hour ago, rmok said:

Um.... Salary and term are also risks for Necas.

They are in fact even bigger risks for Necas because he has never proven that he is a high level player. You are going to give up assets... and have to sign him at big $$$ and for term for a guy that has shown nothing in the league. The overating of a 3rd line 45ish point player is just wild to me. 

I wouldn't sign Guentzel for big $$ and term either .. he's old and a winger. 

Lindholm at least has value in multiple areas of the game.. 

But if they are giving up assets.. and signing for term and giving $$$$ they need to be going for a SURE THING not a maybe. I'd rather package Lek a couple of 1sts and something else to try to pry Tkachuk out of ottawa. He's 24, singed for a few years still, and is a legit power forward with legit multi year record of scoring. Thats the kind of player they should be committing to long term at big money for Petey's wing. Not a guy that has shown virtually nothing. 

 

Salary and Term are risks for EVERY player.

 

All I meant regarding Lindholm & Guentzel was it was more of a concern (to me) due to them being older players.

 

Young players are getting bigger contracts because (in theory) teams are buying their most productive years.

Older players are signing bigger contracts because they've proved their worth and are looking to maximize on what could be there final deals.

 

A couple examples of youth getting bigger contracts at younger ages:

 

Brady Tkachuk 25 years old (in Sept) has youth and size on his side and has been a .7931 PPG in his career. He also makes $8.2 million a season.

Tage Thompson is 27 years old (in Oct) and has some youth and size and has been a .6801 PPG in his career. He makes $7.142 million a season.

I like both players but they also get top 6 playing time and PP opportunity,    

 

Martin Necas is 25 years old. He has youth, some size and ELITE speed playing on the 3rd line. He's been a .68 PPG player for his career and needs a new contract.

What do you think his PPG would be if he was playing the PP and getting top 6 minutes? closer to Tkachuks?  Lower/Higher? 

Necas needs a new contract and what will it look like is the big question. Frankly I could see the Canucks and him looking for a bridge deal,

he probably wants to cash in for big $$$ at 28 (if he's continues to get better). I could see him getting $6.25-$6.75 million on a bridge deal. 

 

As for assets to acquire...I see Necas for Hronek as pretty even...Hurricanes SHOULD have to add (IMO) but in a bidding war we might settle for 1 for 1 trade.

It would create a hole for us on RD though. The silly part of this, is that we got rid of Horvat who wanted to much money to acquire Hronek to address our RD needs.

I've heard talk (media and talk radio) that this years off season is a bit of a unicorn for RHD though, in that there is a lot available in UFA. We'll see I guess.

 

Not sure if Necas is the guy we need but I sure like the potential he offers, the fact management REALLY likes him makes me think it could be a good fit.

 

     

 

 

   

Edited June 3 by Blitz-Pix

[Diamonds]

1 hour ago, rmok said:

Um.... Salary and term are also risks for Necas.

They are in fact even bigger risks for Necas because he has never proven that he is a high level player. You are going to give up assets... and have to sign him at big $$$ and for term for a guy that has shown nothing in the league. The overating of a 3rd line 45ish point player is just wild to me. 

I wouldn't sign Guentzel for big $$ and term either .. he's old and a winger. 

Lindholm at least has value in multiple areas of the game.. 

But if they are giving up assets.. and signing for term and giving $$$$ they need to be going for a SURE THING not a maybe. I'd rather package Lek a couple of 1sts and something else to try to pry Tkachuk out of ottawa. He's 24, singed for a few years still, and is a legit power forward with legit multi year record of scoring. Thats the kind of player they should be committing to long term at big money for Petey's wing. Not a guy that has shown virtually nothing. 

It kind of sounds like you have a personal vendetta against the guy. It's fine if you don't want him, but you are making up false narratives. Necas has absolutely proven that he is a top 6 winger.

 

He only recently turned 25 and in his 5 seasons he's had 3 pacing for at least 56 points (53 in 77 this year, 41 in 53 in the Covid-shortened 2021 season, and 71 in 82 last season). He has never had a season under 0.5ppg. He also just had 9 points in 11 playoff games this year. No, he's not some superstar but he is a proven top 6 player and still quite young at 25. Yes, there is always a risk and with Necas you don't really know if he's going to be the 55 point player or the 70+ point player but both are top 6 players.

Edited June 3 by Diamonds

[HarbularyBattery]

7 hours ago, Blitz-Pix said:

 

FWIW...I'm not suggesting we SHOULD go after Necas...but I understand why Management likes him so much.

I'm excited over what he COULD become... a bonafide star. all some players need is an opportunity.

 

To me, it's kinda like Miller's situation 5 years ago in Tampa Bay.

 

 

ding ding ding

 

yes, thats a great comparison (to the situation, obviously the player is very different)