[Speculation] Hurricanes Rumors: Jake Guentzel Likely to Hit Market, Rights available for mid round pick

[ArmchairGM22]

Have to expect some rights will start moving soon. Less than 2 weeks to UFA and teams wanting first dibs / giving up picks to negotiate need time.

 

i suspect we see the Canucks move rights to Lindholm and Joshua soon 

 

maybe we give up one of those picks to Carolina to see if we can sign Guentzel

[Diamonds]

On 6/18/2024 at 10:52 AM, Rusty Shackleford said:

Is a 30 y/o Guentzal worth a large contract?  Serious question as I haven't watched him play much.

As someone who has watched quite a few Penguins games, no (if you're talking $9M+).

 

Guentzel is a good player. He posses a good shot, is a good skater, and has shown the ability to play with elite talent. He has also never been a play driver. He is essentially a better skating version of Boeser but slightly worse defensively. He became an early fan favorite in Pittsburgh with his breakout playoffs his rookie year but the Pittsburgh fans always viewed his success as being tied to Crosby.

 

If we can get him closer to $8M then I am all for it. However, if we're talking $9M+ (or the rumored $9.5M) then I think we should be looking elsewhere. I might consider a higher contract if he was 26 or 27, but realistically I would expect him to start declining in 3-4 years and it's only his peak that is worth close to $9.5M. That extra $1.5M is going to matter for filling out the rest of the roster.

[Rusty Shackleford]

28 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

As someone who has watched quite a few Penguins games, no (if you're talking $9M+).

 

Guentzel is a good player. He posses a good shot, is a good skater, and has shown the ability to play with elite talent. He has also never been a play driver. He is essentially a better skating version of Boeser but slightly worse defensively. He became an early fan favorite in Pittsburgh with his breakout playoffs his rookie year but the Pittsburgh fans always viewed his success as being tied to Crosby.

 

If we can get him closer to $8M then I am all for it. However, if we're talking $9M+ (or the rumored $9.5M) then I think we should be looking elsewhere. I might consider a higher contract if he was 26 or 27, but realistically I would expect him to start declining in 3-4 years and it's only his peak that is worth close to $9.5M. That extra $1.5M is going to matter for filling out the rest of the roster.

 

Thanks, Diamonds!  

 

This is what my gut tells me and as I mentioned in the Hronek thread, I think a true shutdown 3C along with keeping most of our d core from last season would be more valuable.  

 

Hopefully we have a Guentzal in our system that solves that problem from within, at a much cheaper cap hit.  (Lekkerimaki?)

[HKSR]

32 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

As someone who has watched quite a few Penguins games, no (if you're talking $9M+).

 

Guentzel is a good player. He posses a good shot, is a good skater, and has shown the ability to play with elite talent. He has also never been a play driver. He is essentially a better skating version of Boeser but slightly worse defensively. He became an early fan favorite in Pittsburgh with his breakout playoffs his rookie year but the Pittsburgh fans always viewed his success as being tied to Crosby.

 

If we can get him closer to $8M then I am all for it. However, if we're talking $9M+ (or the rumored $9.5M) then I think we should be looking elsewhere. I might consider a higher contract if he was 26 or 27, but realistically I would expect him to start declining in 3-4 years and it's only his peak that is worth close to $9.5M. That extra $1.5M is going to matter for filling out the rest of the roster.

He did put up 25 points in 17 games with CAR this year... but even if he slowed down considerably (which is likely since that's a 120 point pace lol), he'd still probably be a PPG+ player.  No disrespect to Aho and Svechnikov... but they're not Crosby and Malkin.

[Coconuts]

1 hour ago, ArmchairGM22 said:

Have to expect some rights will start moving soon. Less than 2 weeks to UFA and teams wanting first dibs / giving up picks to negotiate need time.

 

i suspect we see the Canucks move rights to Lindholm and Joshua soon 

 

maybe we give up one of those picks to Carolina to see if we can sign Guentzel

 

Here's hoping, even if they're on the lower end it'd be nice to pick up a couple picks for guys who'll probably end up walking regardless. 

[Diamonds]

15 minutes ago, HKSR said:

He did put up 25 points in 17 games with CAR this year... but even if he slowed down considerably (which is likely since that's a 120 point pace lol), he'd still probably be a PPG+ player.  No disrespect to Aho and Svechnikov... but they're not Crosby and Malkin.

Aho isn't prime Crosby, but I would say they were pretty comparable this year. Guentzel did have a great finish to the season with Carolina but in the playoffs it was still Aho and Svechnikov who drove play and Guentzel the complementary piece. (Guentzel rarely played with Malkin except for the PP so I wouldn't use him as a comparable). Again, Guentzel is a good player, just not someone I think is worth $9M+ especially with a contract starting at age 30.

 

Honestly for half the price and half the term I would rather pick up Teuvo Teravainen then use that extra cap space to round out our defense with someone like Matt Roy or an elite 3C like Chandler Stephenson.

[DeNiro]

I would pay a 3rd if we could do a sign and trade and get ahead of the market.

 

As soon as July 1 hits you know there’s gonna be stupid money thrown around which will drive the price up. 
 

I bet you can get him close to 9 mil on an 8 year. All it takes is some stupid team offering him 10-10.5 and that number goes up.

 

 

Edited June 19 by DeNiro

[Goose]

PLD is the reason why I think it’s smart to avoid expensive signings w/o knowing what the fit will be like.  

 

Miller, Petey, Hronek all got big deals based on how they’ve performed w the Canucks.  I kinda hope they chase a younger RFA winger for Petey (as has been rumoured) for these same reasons.  

 

But this mgmt group does deserve the benefit of the doubt too

 

[DeNiro]

7 minutes ago, Goose said:

PLD is the reason why I think it’s smart to avoid expensive signings w/o knowing what the fit will be like.  

 

Miller, Petey, Hronek all got big deals based on how they’ve performed w the Canucks.  I kinda hope they chase a younger RFA winger for Petey (as has been rumoured) for these same reasons.  

 

But this mgmt group does deserve the benefit of the doubt too

 

Biggest difference is that our coach and management know Guentzel personally. They’ve won a cup together.

 

The key from the PLD signing is to do your due diligence on a player before handing them a huge deal. The red flags were already there from his time in Columbus and Winnipeg. LA ignored those red flags.

[aGENT]

4 hours ago, Sika21 said:

 

 

Better? Definitely not. I’d rather split that money up in the likes of Toffoli/Monahan or the likes of that than put it all on JG. 
 

Guentzel is gonna get a haul. Boeser is due for a raise next year. OEL’s buyout is gonna spike soon. 
 

Wait to see who the buyouts are, and who’s remaining July 2.

 

Toffoli is a solid player but he's also slow. Can't see us targeting him given team makeup/needs.

Edited June 19 by aGENT

[Billabong]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Be honest, did your heart skip a beat? 

[HKSR]

Just now, Billabong said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Be honest, did your heart skip a beat? 

No... it's not UFA season yet lol.  You should have saved this for when UFA season actually opens.

[Billabong]

12 minutes ago, HKSR said:

No... it's not UFA season yet lol.  You should have saved this for when UFA season actually opens.

I was thinking coulda been a sign and trade 

[spook007]

17 minutes ago, Billabong said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Be honest, did your heart skip a beat? 

You bastard.... 

Definitely had to read to full post.

Edited June 19 by spook007

[Billabong]

20 minutes ago, spook007 said:

You bastard.... 

Definitely had to read to full post.

[canucks curse]

41 minutes ago, Billabong said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Be honest, did your heart skip a beat? 

dude I love how the neck doesn't match JG's face at all 

[HorvatToBaertschi]

4 hours ago, Diamonds said:

As someone who has watched quite a few Penguins games, no (if you're talking $9M+).

 

Guentzel is a good player. He posses a good shot, is a good skater, and has shown the ability to play with elite talent. He has also never been a play driver. He is essentially a better skating version of Boeser but slightly worse defensively. He became an early fan favorite in Pittsburgh with his breakout playoffs his rookie year but the Pittsburgh fans always viewed his success as being tied to Crosby.

 

If we can get him closer to $8M then I am all for it. However, if we're talking $9M+ (or the rumored $9.5M) then I think we should be looking elsewhere. I might consider a higher contract if he was 26 or 27, but realistically I would expect him to start declining in 3-4 years and it's only his peak that is worth close to $9.5M. That extra $1.5M is going to matter for filling out the rest of the roster.

I appreciate the insight and I don’t want to come off as rude, so take this for what you will.

 

I trust Allvin and Rutherford’s judgment of their player more than yours. They know him better than any of us can even imagine, and they know what fair value is for him. If they sign him at 9.5, it’s because he’s worth 9.5. 
 

If this wasn’t a player that was brought up under their regime, I wouldn’t have said anything to your comment. 

[MeanSeanBean]

3 hours ago, Goose said:

PLD is the reason why I think it’s smart to avoid expensive signings w/o knowing what the fit will be like.  

 

Miller, Petey, Hronek all got big deals based on how they’ve performed w the Canucks.  I kinda hope they chase a younger RFA winger for Petey (as has been rumoured) for these same reasons.  

 

But this mgmt group does deserve the benefit of the doubt too

 

I get it, but kinda apples and oranges. PLD had had very brief stints of lookin dominate but the overwhelming majority of the time looked lazy and uninteresting his entire career. Kings were hoping a new environment could draw the best out of him. JG is a proven top line winger with a long history of playoff dominance. 

[aGENT]

41 minutes ago, MeanSeanBean said:

JG is a proven top line winger with a long history of playoff dominance. 

 

*On two teams.

Edited June 19 by aGENT

[R3aL]

5 hours ago, Diamonds said:

As someone who has watched quite a few Penguins games, no (if you're talking $9M+).

 

Guentzel is a good player. He posses a good shot, is a good skater, and has shown the ability to play with elite talent. He has also never been a play driver. He is essentially a better skating version of Boeser but slightly worse defensively. He became an early fan favorite in Pittsburgh with his breakout playoffs his rookie year but the Pittsburgh fans always viewed his success as being tied to Crosby.

 

If we can get him closer to $8M then I am all for it. However, if we're talking $9M+ (or the rumored $9.5M) then I think we should be looking elsewhere. I might consider a higher contract if he was 26 or 27, but realistically I would expect him to start declining in 3-4 years and it's only his peak that is worth close to $9.5M. That extra $1.5M is going to matter for filling out the rest of the roster.

4 hours ago, Diamonds said:

Aho isn't prime Crosby, but I would say they were pretty comparable this year. Guentzel did have a great finish to the season with Carolina but in the playoffs it was still Aho and Svechnikov who drove play and Guentzel the complementary piece. (Guentzel rarely played with Malkin except for the PP so I wouldn't use him as a comparable). Again, Guentzel is a good player, just not someone I think is worth $9M+ especially with a contract starting at age 30.

 

Honestly for half the price and half the term I would rather pick up Teuvo Teravainen then use that extra cap space to round out our defense with someone like Matt Roy or an elite 3C like Chandler Stephenson.

 

Garland is a play driver but it doesn't mean he is the right fit for Miller or Pettersson. Guentzel is an elite top line NHL forward. You could say his skill set is more complimentary, sure. But that is what a Miller or Petey needs and vice versa. Miller-Boeser is a great duo they compliment each other well and Miller drives play. Petey and Guentzel would be similar and should be an even more high end duo. Guentzel is an elite enough player too that when Petey has an off night or struggles he can help Petey. Whereas this year Petey had Lafferty, Mikehyev and Hoglander. 

 

Comparing Boeser and Guentzel defensive game is kind of hard. But Guentzel has been strong enough defensively on two teams top lines and is very good at puck retrievals and board battles. I would say hes been more consistent year to year defensively than Boeser has been over their careers thus far.

 

A better skating Boeser is quite a comp.I would take that player for Petey any day of the week. 40 goal guy that can win board battles, perform in the playoffs, compliment a top line C, thrive in a matchup role and a great person / locker room guy and a solid skater. Sign me up.

 

-

 

The money is tough. This is hard for sure. But the reality of the league is we are going to start seeing big contract bumps with the cap finally starting to rise and projected to rise year over year for the foreseeable future as it was frozen for so long. 

 

We also have the opportunity to bring in a perfect puzzle piece for our forward group. He not only gives Petey a legit running mate but it brings balance to our top 6 and completes our PP.JG and Boeser as bumper and net front, JT to JG is going to be deadly and a healthy and confident Petey will certainly make a difference as well.

 

I would expect a top tier PP next year with the addition of JG.

 

Management also knows the player better than anyone. They know his work ethic, they know how he takes care of himself and would have a better reaction on how they think he will age.

 

It is safe to say he will be a very effective top line winger for the next 4 years though. Age 30-34. After that sure things could get dicey. But the players who do play well into their mid 30s are guys like guentzel imo. High IQ elite guys who take care of themselves and have champion habits. JG saw how Crosby did it too, I am sure would give him confidence that he can be a high end player at 35-36 too with the proper preparation and mindset.

 

Also - With Millers age, Hughes Demko Contract the next 2-3 years really is peak window for us. There aren't too many ways to add a player like JG in our forward mix. And a difference of 1-1.5M dollars shouldn't make the difference here imo.

 

I am 100% into signing him no hesitations. But I agree ofc I would love it being closer to 8 but I also would have loved Petey to be closer to 10, Hronek closer to 6 etc. 

 

-

 

Teurvo is still going to come at big ticket price and term probably $6M+ on Term. He is not a guy that practices hard from reports from Carolina media, which concerns me. And makes me think he's not a guy our management would target nor RT would want most either. He is also the same age as JG so the age argument is the same.

 

It is very unrealistic to think he would sign for half the term and money of JG imo. $4-5M at 4 years? Why would he do that? There is a lot of money available to spend this free agency unlike the last couple years and the caps projected to rise.  But if he does and I am wrong and thats the contract range he signs then yes I would certainly entertain the idea of doing: Teravainen-Petey-Toffoli or bringing in a Roy / Stephenson with him.

 

But I dont think he will be paid that little and would prefer JG as I think that is a home run hit.

 

-

 

Im open minded though and trust our management group.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DrJockitch]

I think with our signings and we have some cap we need to take a run at him within reason. We need a winger and an PF and a 3rd line C though. 
Adding JG and loosing Dak we are back to getting a bit to easy to push around especially if Zads walks. 
Fun times. Go PA, can’t wait to see what he can pull off. 

[garthsbutcher]

6 minutes ago, R3aL said:

 

Garland is a play driver but it doesn't mean he is the right fit for Miller or Pettersson. Guentzel is an elite top line NHL forward. You could say his skill set is more complimentary, sure. But that is what a Miller or Petey needs and vice versa. Miller-Boeser is a great duo they compliment each other well and Miller drives play. Petey and Guentzel would be similar and should be an even more high end duo. Guentzel is an elite enough player too that when Petey has an off night or struggles he can help Petey. Whereas this year Petey had Lafferty, Mikehyev and Hoglander. 

 

Comparing Boeser and Guentzel defensive game is kind of hard. But Guentzel has been strong enough defensively on two teams top lines and is very good at puck retrievals and board battles. I would say hes been more consistent year to year defensively than Boeser has been over their careers thus far.

 

A better skating Boeser is quite a comp.I would take that player for Petey any day of the week. 40 goal guy that can win board battles, perform in the playoffs, compliment a top line C, thrive in a matchup role and a great person / locker room guy and a solid skater. Sign me up.

 

-

 

The money is tough. This is hard for sure. But the reality of the league is we are going to start seeing big contract bumps with the cap finally starting to rise and projected to rise year over year for the foreseeable future as it was frozen for so long. 

 

We also have the opportunity to bring in a perfect puzzle piece for our forward group. He not only gives Petey a legit running mate but it brings balance to our top 6 and completes our PP.JG and Boeser as bumper and net front, JT to JG is going to be deadly and a healthy and confident Petey will certainly make a difference as well.

 

I would expect a top tier PP next year with the addition of JG.

 

Management also knows the player better than anyone. They know his work ethic, they know how he takes care of himself and would have a better reaction on how they think he will age.

 

It is safe to say he will be a very effective top line winger for the next 4 years though. Age 30-34. After that sure things could get dicey. But the players who do play well into their mid 30s are guys like guentzel imo. High IQ elite guys who take care of themselves and have champion habits. JG saw how Crosby did it too, I am sure would give him confidence that he can be a high end player at 35-36 too with the proper preparation and mindset.

 

Also - With Millers age, Hughes Demko Contract the next 2-3 years really is peak window for us. There aren't too many ways to add a player like JG in our forward mix. And a difference of 1-1.5M dollars shouldn't make the difference here imo.

 

I am 100% into signing him no hesitations. But I agree ofc I would love it being closer to 8 but I also would have loved Petey to be closer to 10, Hronek closer to 6 etc. 

 

-

 

Teurvo is still going to come at big ticket price and term probably $6M+ on Term. He is not a guy that practices hard from reports from Carolina media, which concerns me. And makes me think he's not a guy our management would target nor RT would want most either. He is also the same age as JG so the age argument is the same.

 

It is very unrealistic to think he would sign for half the term and money of JG imo. $4-5M at 4 years? Why would he do that? There is a lot of money available to spend this free agency unlike the last couple years and the caps projected to rise.  But if he does and I am wrong and thats the contract range he signs then yes I would certainly entertain the idea of doing: Teravainen-Petey-Toffoli or bringing in a Roy / Stephenson with him.

 

But I dont think he will be paid that little and would prefer JG as I think that is a home run hit.

 

-

 

Im open minded though and trust our management group.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll take Tyler T for half the money and term and the savings equals money for big Z

[Jim McMahon]

Twitter says a realtor was showing Guentzel and his wife homes in Vancouver 

[J-23]

We need to trade for him now, so we can get him signed to an 8 year deal and lower that cap hit, in my opinion.

[J-23]

Guentzel - Pettersson - Garland

 

We probably won’t be able to sign another top 6 winger if we get Guentzel and bring back Zadorov. So I would just run this line.

 

Garland will get the puck.

Pettersson will pass the puck.

Guentzel will score the puck.