[Speculation] Hurricanes Rumors: Jake Guentzel Likely to Hit Market, Rights available for mid round pick

[RWJC]

22 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

They have 19 players signed and have already moved on from Pesce. They have lots of cap space to re-sign Guentzel. They don’t have 9 UFA’s like us. 
 

The owner has no problem paying Aho $9.75 million. Wouldn’t Guentzel be the perfect winger for Aho?  You know cause he did so well in the playoffs. 
 

What gives?  Carolina signing Guentzel should be a no brainer really. They can even give him 8 years so can probably do it for $8-8.5 million.  But they don’t want to. Speaks volumes. 

have you ever thought the player might want to hit market because they believe they can earn more or want to play elsewhere?!?

 

The team has no control over a UFA’s negotiation/decision.

[Elias Pettersson]

9 minutes ago, RWJC said:

You sign according to current market value for the player. You keep wanting a complete player for your valuation, but if you look across the league that’s not how it works and never has. Teams pay big $ for goals. Goals are what win you games.

 

The fact that you are trying to compare a current Guentel price point to a eg. Rantanen contract that was signed in 2019(!!!!) should be enough for you to realize that the only comparable that would matter in that case is if you’re GM of a team and what bringing a 9mill player into your cap structure does in terms of balance for now and future.

 

Unfortunately, yes…if the market dictates a player can earn a certain value from a willing GM, that then generally raises the bar across the board for similar players with similar expectations. 
 

just because you don’t like the price point doesn’t negate market values. And don’t extrapolate and put words in my mouth…I’m not saying we should sign Boeser to that kind of deal. What I am saying is there is competition for JG’s services and that drives the price up for everyone. If there were a plethora of high end snipers on the market, his price point would be lower. There aren’t and as such its not. That’s just the way it is.

I brought up Boeser because he’s a UFA next summer in an inflationary market. If he’s at 35-40 goals next summer is he not worth $9.5 million if that is the current cost of a 35-40 goal scorer?  
 

You don’t want to sign Boeser to that kind of a deal, but the fact is he may be a 40 goal scorer next summer, and a guy who can play in all situations and is pushing 210 pounds. So why shouldn’t he get paid the same as Guentzel?  He’s also two years younger.
 

If teams are lining up to pay Guentzel $9.5 million I am pretty sure they will be lining up for Boeser too. Minnesota says hiii and their dead cap is almost zero next summer so they’ll easily be able to pay  $9.5 million for Boeser. 

[chris12345]

51 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I’m waiting for someone to counter my argument that Guentzel has no business being in the same category as those 7 players on my list. I’ll wait. 
 

Guentzel is a good player. However, he’s coming off a 30 goal season and is hitting 30 years old. He’s not worth $9.5 million. Prove me wrong. 

I already said I'd get the double TTs.

 

Two wingers are better than one. Guentzel still leaves too many holes. The Canucks need at least 2 top 6 wingers.

[RWJC]

9 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I brought up Boeser because he’s a UFA next summer in an inflationary market. If he’s at 35-40 goals next summer is he not worth $9.5 million if that is the current cost of a 35-40 goal scorer?  
 

You don’t want to sign Boeser to that kind of a deal, but the fact is he may be a 40 goal scorer next summer, and a guy who can play in all situations and is pushing 210 pounds. So why shouldn’t he get paid the same as Guentzel?  He’s also two years younger.
 

If teams are lining up to pay Guentzel $9.5 million I am pretty sure they will be lining up for Boeser too. Minnesota says hiii and their dead cap is almost zero next summer so they’ll easily be able to pay  $9.5 million for Boeser. 

that’s my point though. We have a choice to pay what we want for said player. If the market next season dictates that BB6 is somehow worth 9.5 that’s the bridge you cross and choose whether it makes sense to retain him. 
 

the onus here is on the GMs who kept continuing to (over?)spend on the players and assisting in driving up salaries. 
 

Guentzel has a better track record than BB6, has put up more points in his career, has been less injured and has significant playoff experience. Some GMs will value that more than Brock’s total resume. But if BB6 posts another season like he did this past one, you can bet your ass there will be a list of GMs who will be interested in him even if the click bait media endows their $ valuation at 8-8.5 or more. Why? Because like I said, goals win you games. 

Edited June 22 by RWJC

[Elias Pettersson]

9 minutes ago, RWJC said:

have you ever thought the player might want to hit market because they believe they can earn more or want to play elsewhere?!?

 

The team has no control over a UFA’s negotiation/decision.

Guentzel has a NTC. So he approved the trade to Carolina. They weren’t on his list. He’s a perfect winger for Aho you would think. No reason for him not to sign there unless Carolina doesn’t want to pay him. 

[chris12345]

Just now, Elias Pettersson said:

Guentzel has a NTC. So he approved the trade to Carolina. They weren’t on his list. He’s a perfect winger for Aho you would think. No reason for him not to sign there unless Carolina doesn’t want to pay him. 

They won't. They are a beautifully run organization.

[RWJC]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Guentzel has a NTC. So he approved the trade to Carolina. They weren’t on his list. He’s a perfect winger for Aho you would think. No reason for him not to sign there unless Carolina doesn’t want to pay him. 

Don’t be ignorant. It’s his decision.

High end UFAs go where they want to.

 

He probably accepted to CAR because like you mention he would be lined up with a high end C and they looked as though they were a strong playoff club.

 

We have a high end C and we’re a strong reg season and playoff club. 
We also have a need for a player of his ilk to elevate EP and as a major threat on the PP. what does the PP do? It’s your best opportunity to score goals. 
Again, what do goals get you…?

[Elias Pettersson]

7 minutes ago, RWJC said:

that’s my point though. We have a choice to pay what we want for said player. If the market next season dictates that BB6 is somehow worth 9.5 that’s the bridge you cross and choose whether it makes sense to retain him. 
 

the onus here is on the GMs who kept continuing to (over?)spend on the players and assisting in driving up salaries. 
 

Guentzel has a better track record than BB6, has put up more points in his career, has been less injured and has significant playoff experience. Some GMs will value that more than Brock’s total resume. But if BB6 posts another season like he did this past one, you can’t bet your ass there will be a list of GMs who will be I treated in him even if the click bait media endows their $ valuation at 8-8.5 or more. Why? Because like I said, goals win you games. 

I agree. So the question is do you want Boeser at $9.5 million or Guentzel?  Because I am pretty sure we won’t be giving them both $9.5 million. Guentzel might have more history but IMO Boeser is a better for for this team. And is already part of the system and a known commodity for us. 

[Elias Pettersson]

3 minutes ago, RWJC said:

Don’t be ignorant. It’s his decision.

High end UFAs go where they want to.

 

He probably accepted to CAR because like you mention he would be lined up with a high end C and they looked as though they were a strong playoff club.

 

We have a high end C and we’re a strong reg season and playoff club. 
We also have a need for a player of his ilk to elevate EP and as a major threat on the PP. what does the PP do? It’s your best opportunity to score goals. 
Again, what do goals get you…?

You still haven’t advised as to why Carolina doesn’t want to pay Guentzel $9.5 million. Isn’t that his market value cause of inflation?  He’s a perfect fit for Aho and they got lots of cap space. Are you suggesting Guentzel

doesn’t want to play in Carolina?  They can even offer him 8 years. 
 

Carolina isn’t re-signing him because they don’t want to pay a 30 year old small winger $9.5 million. It’s not that complicated really. 

[Elias Pettersson]

17 minutes ago, chris12345 said:

I already said I'd get the double TTs.

 

Two wingers are better than one. Guentzel still leaves too many holes. The Canucks need at least 2 top 6 wingers.

Teravainen at $6 million and Joshua at $3.5 million. That’s $9.5 million. Makes more sense to me to spread the money around. 

Edited June 22 by Elias Pettersson

[RWJC]

25 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I agree. So the question is do you want Boeser at $9.5 million or Guentzel?  Because I am pretty sure we won’t be giving them both $9.5 million. Guentzel might have more history but IMO Boeser is a better for for this team. And is already part of the system and a known commodity for us. 

My answer is I don’t know. I don’t want us overspending on Guentzel but  I also realize just how important it is for us to secure a talent that can actually match or elevate EP on his wing. We can’t keep providing stop gap options because they are cheaper or we lack cap allocation for it. There’s no more excuse that way. We’ve locked in certain players and have taken major steps into being a contender. Unfortunately we have to take one more expensive step and add a proven commodity that has an ideal combination of experience, skill set, pedigree and expectation. That’s exactly what Guentzel provides. 
 

The gamble isn’t in JG, its in placing belief in that our prospects will develop enough in time to supplant the bottom 6 of the roster (and Lek into the top 6) before we have to make major concessions and either trade out draft picks again to bring in adequate bottom 6 resources or leverage certain players against their UFA market. 
 

that’s the cost off Guentzel and subsequently BB6 as well. If mgmt plays their cards right, we can afford these moves going forward and that includes extending BB6 even after signing JG. M-NTCs are still moveable as well, as like you mentioned JG waived his for CAR. It’s not life or death for us to sign him, it’s life or death if our pipeline doesn’t come through. 
 

to that end, I wait and see how BB6 performs this coming year before engaging in extension discussions. One year at a time is the safest way for us to budget going forward, even if it means giving a player an opportunity for UFA cash in. We still hold their rights, we still can give max term. And regardless of what we want as fans, the market will present the players value at that time. The negotiation at that point isn’t so much built out of desperation, but if the bet that is hedged is successful, we will have supplementary pieces that offset the potential loss of specific players and further stabilize our negotiation process. 

Edited June 22 by RWJC

[RWJC]

14 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

You still haven’t advised as to why Carolina doesn’t want to pay Guentzel $9.5 million. Isn’t that his market value cause of inflation?  He’s a perfect fit for Aho and they got lots of cap space. Are you suggesting Guentzel

doesn’t want to play in Carolina?  They can even offer him 8 years. 
 

Carolina isn’t re-signing him because they don’t want to pay a 30 year old small winger $9.5 million. It’s not that complicated really. 

 I’m going by what’s factual. They haven’t signed him, he hasnt agreed. They’ve now offered up his rights for a mid round pick yet no one has moved on that deal yet. Maybe he’s decided where he wants to go and for how much? 

 

Neither of us know, but quit taking a single side in what is obviously a two party situation.  Be objective, yeah?

Being firmly decided on something you have no inside information about just amounts to more conjecture on your part. Sound opinions are based on evidence. Only evidence there is right now is that they haven’t agreed to any extension that anyone knows about. That’s it. He may still sign there but hyperbole about the current status doesn’t make an argument. It’s just a guess. 

[tas]

42 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I brought up Boeser because he’s a UFA next summer in an inflationary market. If he’s at 35-40 goals next summer is he not worth $9.5 million if that is the current cost of a 35-40 goal scorer?  
 

You don’t want to sign Boeser to that kind of a deal, but the fact is he may be a 40 goal scorer next summer, and a guy who can play in all situations and is pushing 210 pounds. So why shouldn’t he get paid the same as Guentzel?  He’s also two years younger.
 

If teams are lining up to pay Guentzel $9.5 million I am pretty sure they will be lining up for Boeser too. Minnesota says hiii and their dead cap is almost zero next summer so they’ll easily be able to pay  $9.5 million for Boeser. 

if boeser takes another step with his consistency and replicates this year's production, yes, his market value would be similar to guentzel's. hopefully he's willing to take a discount to stay in vancouver in the $8-8.5m range on a term that lines up with miller's and (hopefully) guentzel's deals. 

 

 

[tas]

25 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I agree. So the question is do you want Boeser at $9.5 million or Guentzel?  Because I am pretty sure we won’t be giving them both $9.5 million. Guentzel might have more history but IMO Boeser is a better for for this team. And is already part of the system and a known commodity for us. 

you don't think they could find $2.75m in the budget for a raise for boeser? I'm skeptical. 

 

that said, I don't think it'll take $9.5 to keep brock either way. 

[Elias Pettersson]

10 minutes ago, tas said:

you don't think they could find $2.75m in the budget for a raise for boeser? I'm skeptical. 

 

that said, I don't think it'll take $9.5 to keep brock either way. 

Brock most likely takes a team friendly deal in the $8 million range. That’s what his buddy Miller is getting. I don’t think Guentzel is taking a team friendly deal to come to Vancouver. I’m perfectly happy to re-sign Brock and bring in a lower cost option to play with Petey. Signing Guentzel to a $9.5x7 contract just because he is supposedly the only guy out there who fits our need is short sighted and may have significant negative cap implications moving forward. 

Edited June 22 by Elias Pettersson

[tas]

6 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Brock most likely takes a team friendly deal in the $8 million range. That’s what his buddy Miller is getting. I don’t think Guentzel is taking a team friendly deal to come to Vancouver. I’m perfectly happy to re-sign Brock and bring in a lower cost option to play with Petey. Signing Guentzel to a $9.5x7 contract just because he is supposedly the only guy out there who fits our need is short sighted and may have significant negative cap implications moving forward. 

it truly doesn't concern me. good teams have expensive players. 

[HOFsedins]

1 hour ago, RWJC said:

You sign according to current market value for the player. You keep wanting a complete player for your valuation, but if you look across the league that’s not how it works and never has. Teams pay big $ for goals. Goals are what win you games.

 

The fact that you are trying to compare a current Guentel price point to a eg. Rantanen contract that was signed in 2019(!!!!) should be enough for you to realize that the only comparable that would matter in that case is if you’re GM of a team and what bringing a 9mill player into your cap structure does in terms of balance for now and future.

 

Unfortunately, yes…if the market dictates a player can earn a certain value from a willing GM, that then generally raises the bar across the board for similar players with similar expectations. 
 

just because you don’t like the price point doesn’t negate market values. And don’t extrapolate and put words in my mouth…I’m not saying we should sign Boeser to that kind of deal. What I am saying is there is competition for JG’s services and that drives the price up for everyone. If there were a plethora of high end snipers on the market, his price point would be lower. There aren’t and as such its not. That’s just the way it is.

 

Here’s a counter…the players you mention on that list. Imagine they are UFA this offseason…what do you think each would command on the open market?

That’s the comparable you should be using.

Exactly what I was about to say

[Grandmaster]

So it seems no one is wanting to give up a “mid round pick”. Figure that price ought to drop by now. I would give a 4th for his rights. Need to sort this out and see if we can fit in big Z before July 1. 

[RWJC]

7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Brock most likely takes a team friendly deal in the $8 million range. That’s what his buddy Miller is getting. I don’t think Guentzel is taking a team friendly deal to come to Vancouver. I’m perfectly happy to re-sign Brock and bring in a lower cost option to play with Petey. Signing Guentzel to a $9.5x7 contract just because he is supposedly the only guy out there who fits our need is short sighted and may have significant negative cap implications moving forward. 

It’s a catch 22 - either you obtain a proven asset, albeit more expensively, through UFA that doesn’t cost you commodities other than cap space, or you sign players with less potential and if they underperform your option is to then trade out you viable commodities (eg. Prospects and draft picks) to obtain the requisite talent that is required to only improve on the club’s performance. 
 

The safest bet, even for the long term, is to obtain the proven UFA, pay them, and afford your prospects the time to develop so that you can achieve turnover and balance internally without doing extra damage to your current and future positioning. 
 

sure you can bring in a guy like TT, but he’s not a comparable to JG. He’s a downgrade. At what point do you continue to either accept downgrades to accompany your top talent or actually provide them with an equitable player who adds to their game?

 

TT finishes for EP. That’s all he does, besides potentially slowing down zone entries as well (though I readily admit he’s a smart player in spite of his speed). We got Hronek for QH, EP deserves his version too and that first option should not be a 32 year old sniper who at any time during the term given to secure him as UFA, could realistically begin his regression. We need speed in the top 6. Maybe JG isn’t the answer. Who is then? And if not by free agency, what do we have to give up to get them? How much does that then set us back in forward planning? 

[tas]

3 minutes ago, Grandmaster said:

So it seems no one is wanting to give up a “mid round pick”. Figure that price ought to drop by now. I would give a 4th for his rights. Need to sort this out and see if we can fit in big Z before July 1. 

they would probably wait until after the playoffs are done before announcing it. 

[R3aL]

3 hours ago, DeNiro said:

Toffoli is 32…

 

Unless he’s willing to take a two year deal it makes no sense to sign a player that age who has already shown signs of slowing down.

 

If we can’t fix the top 6 problem this summer then don’t sign anyone. Getting stuck with more inflated middle 6 contracts with too much term is what we’re trying to get out of.

I was just sharing what Friedman said on 32 Thoughts.

 

I agree term is the most important part of a potential toffoli contract.

 

And I am not closed off to the idea of signing Toffoli I just dont see us being the highest bidder in regards to total money / term for him.

 

And I would say there is close to zero chance they dont add a top 6 winger in some capacity this summer.

 

As for his age I am aware of his age. But there are players producing from 32-35 in the NHL nowadays. Toffoli play style never been speed base so he should still be strong on boards, he still should be a good finisher and be in the right places to score and finish plays etc. I could see him scoring 20+ for the next 3 years pretty easily.

 

Im also not advocating want to sign him. I am just open minded to it and I trust management wouldn't overcommit term to him at a silly dollar figure it wouldn't make sense.

 

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Carolina added Guentzel to go for the cup. Didn’t help them much did it?  Why should we do the same? 

 

Carolina is trying/tried to keep him for a reason too.

 

To me thats kinda like saying The avalanche have makar on the backend and they couldn't even beat Dallas what's the point of paying him. 

 

Guentzel was a difference maker for them. He was very good. It wasnt his fault they lost, its a team sport and a lot of factors influence who wins and loses. The rangers also had a great team with a goalie playing his best hockey of the year. Carolina could have benefited from better goaltending too. It was the difference in the series imo.

 

 

 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, chris12345 said:

I already said I'd get the double TTs.

 

Two wingers are better than one. Guentzel still leaves too many holes. The Canucks need at least 2 top 6 wingers.

 

I think people are mostly overlooking this point.  Without Lindholm, they're probably playing Suter at 3C and that means Miller and Boeser need a winger as well.  

 

 

They need depth scoring, not one, high priced guy

[stawns]

4 minutes ago, R3aL said:

I was just sharing what Friedman said on 32 Thoughts.

 

I agree term is the most important part of a potential toffoli contract.

 

And I am not closed off to the idea of signing Toffoli I just dont see us being the highest bidder in regards to total money / term for him.

 

And I would say there is close to zero chance they dont add a top 6 winger in some capacity this summer.

 

As for his age I am aware of his age. But there are players producing from 32-35 in the NHL nowadays. Toffoli play style never been speed base so he should still be strong on boards, he still should be a good finisher and be in the right places to score and finish plays etc. I could see him scoring 20+ for the next 3 years pretty easily.

 

Im also not advocating want to sign him. I am just open minded to it and I trust management wouldn't overcommit term to him at a silly dollar figure it wouldn't make sense.

 

 

Carolina is trying/tried to keep him for a reason too.

 

To me thats kinda like saying The avalanche have makar on the backend and they couldn't even beat Dallas what's the point of paying him. 

 

Guentzel was a difference maker for them. He was very good. It wasnt his fault they lost, its a team sport and a lot of factors influence who wins and loses. The rangers also had a great team with a goalie playing his best hockey of the year. Carolina could have benefited from better goaltending too. It was the difference in the series imo.

 

 

 

 

Toffoli and Terravain on shorter term deals, for a similar cap hit as Jake guentzal

 

Hogz miller Boes

Terravainen Petey Toffoli

 

 

[BPA]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Brock most likely takes a team friendly deal in the $8 million range. That’s what his buddy Miller is getting. I don’t think Guentzel is taking a team friendly deal to come to Vancouver. I’m perfectly happy to re-sign Brock and bring in a lower cost option to play with Petey. Signing Guentzel to a $9.5x7 contract just because he is supposedly the only guy out there who fits our need is short sighted and may have significant negative cap implications moving forward. 

The answer is to re-sign Boeser this summer to the $8M deal. 

[RWJC]

9 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

I think people are mostly overlooking this point.  Without Lindholm, they're probably playing Suter at 3C and that means Miller and Boeser need a winger as well.  

 

 

They need depth scoring, not one, high priced guy

If Suter is compatible on that JTM/BB6 line then you keep him there. You sign Blueger for the 3C. I realize what you’re getting at but depth scoring is equatable to having 3rd pairing guys play above their salary and contributing on clip within the top 6, no? Suter will not produce as many pts when you drop him down to 3C, but he hasnt shown to be a detractor on the 1/2 line. That’s part of your depth scoring, regardless of where it’s situated. 
 

Would love to see us pick up 2 top 6 W’s but we need to allocate for D as you tend to reference as well. As such, displacing Suter is the least of the worries at the moment, imho. Finding EP bonafide linemates is the priority, even if it’s just one superior UFA. Watered down price points give you watered down production. You want value for EP for the long term, not secondary options that are a relatively slight upgrade on what he’s been accustomed to on his own. That’s how you create a superstar…give him the accurate instruments to work with and become one.