US Politics Thread

[Sabrefan1]

3 minutes ago, stawns said:

I think too much weight is being put on "polls", especially given the rocky road ahead for Trump.  Obviously it will energize his base, but I think moderate repubs will simply stay home.  Further to that, I think he's going to have a hard time raising money for a campaign, especially if things start going south for him 

 

I'm all for Biden packing it in, they both should.......however, I think he will thump trump again if they are the candidates.  I also think repugs, in general, are going to suffer at the ballot.

 

 

Only time will tell.  Polls are the only tool we have to gauge these things.  It also depends on the poll of course.  Some use suspect methods to get their numbers.  That's why it's smart to toss the top and bottom outliers when trying to get a read on them.   Apparently the Democrats believe in their own internal polling or they'd put the kibosh on Newsome and get the media that they're aligned with to back off the Biden criticism.

 

A more solid argument against the current polls are that they don't measure any upcoming voter fatigue.  Who will the voters sour on and tire of over time?  If the Democrats continue to worry about Biden's electibility, who will replace him if Newsome's internal poll numbers turn out to be no better than Biden's... 

 

Hillary has been making appearances and statements lately about Trump and about Putin and the Russian/Ukraine situation.  Do the Democrats have the stomach to run her against Trump again?

[Gurn]

Michell Obama decides that she is the only person, other than Joe that can stop Drumpf, so she joins the race.

Barack says he'll run as her vice president.

 

[stawns]

1 minute ago, Gurn said:

Michell Obama decides that she is the only person, other than Joe that can stop Drumpf, so she joins the race.

Barack says he'll run as her vice president.

 

I actually thought she should have been on the ticket with biden last time

 

Could you imagine if Biden and Obama kicked the hell out of Trump and whoever?

[the destroyer of worlds]

Here is TRUMP being presented a gun.  His Federal indictments means that this might  be against the law.  

 

https://www.atf.gov/firearms/qa/are-there-persons-who-cannot-legally-receive-or-possess-firearms-andor-ammunition

 

 

[Sabrefan1]

17 minutes ago, the destroyer of worlds said:

Here is TRUMP being presented a gun.  His Federal indictments means that this might  be against the law.  

 

https://www.atf.gov/firearms/qa/are-there-persons-who-cannot-legally-receive-or-possess-firearms-andor-ammunition

 

 

He didn't buy it. 

 

Here's the federal statute dealing with that issue...  https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/922

 

d1 is the pertinent section.

 

(d) It shall be unlawful for any person to sell or otherwise dispose of any firearm or ammunition to any person knowing or having reasonable cause to believe that such person, including as a juvenile—

 

 

(1) is under indictment for, or has been convicted in any court of, a crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year;

 

"dispose of" under d means gifting ownership.  It's a legal loophole closer.

 

[24K]

1 hour ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

 

Only time will tell.  Polls are the only tool we have to gauge these things.  It also depends on the poll of course.  Some use suspect methods to get their numbers.  That's why it's smart to toss the top and bottom outliers when trying to get a read on them.   Apparently the Democrats believe in their own internal polling or they'd put the kibosh on Newsome and get the media that they're aligned with to back off the Biden criticism.

 

A more solid argument against the current polls are that they don't measure any upcoming voter fatigue.  Who will the voters sour on and tire of over time?  If the Democrats continue to worry about Biden's electibility, who will replace him if Newsome's internal poll numbers turn out to be no better than Biden's... 

 

Hillary has been making appearances and statements lately about Trump and about Putin and the Russian/Ukraine situation.  Do the Democrats have the stomach to run her against Trump again?

Yeah this is thebproblem with the Dems right now. They have no one young and energized like Obama on their bench for President outside of Newsome thanks to their geriatrics taking up most of the senior posts. 

 

They really need to find Obama v2.0 fast. 

[Warhippy]

8 hours ago, 24K said:

Yeah this is thebproblem with the Dems right now. They have no one young and energized like Obama on their bench for President outside of Newsome thanks to their geriatrics taking up most of the senior posts. 

 

They really need to find Obama v2.0 fast. 

He lost to a near 80 year old in Markey in his senate race

 

But I said this was the guy about 5 years ago

 

Joe Kennedy the 3rd

 

[Sabrefan1]

9 hours ago, 24K said:

Yeah this is thebproblem with the Dems right now. They have no one young and energized like Obama on their bench for President outside of Newsome thanks to their geriatrics taking up most of the senior posts. 

 

They really need to find Obama v2.0 fast. 

 

Newsome's problem is that California is becoming a failure of a state and the rest of the country knows it.  It's residents and businesses are fleeing and he's been ineffective in turning things around so far.

 

As always, I'll vote 3rd party across my ballot when the time comes. 

 

I still play close attention to the races because I want to take and know the measure of whoever ends up winning.

[Gnarcore]

11 hours ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

 

Only time will tell.  Polls are the only tool we have to gauge these things.  It also depends on the poll of course.  Some use suspect methods to get their numbers.  That's why it's smart to toss the top and bottom outliers when trying to get a read on them.   Apparently the Democrats believe in their own internal polling or they'd put the kibosh on Newsome and get the media that they're aligned with to back off the Biden criticism.

 

A more solid argument against the current polls are that they don't measure any upcoming voter fatigue.  Who will the voters sour on and tire of over time?  If the Democrats continue to worry about Biden's electibility, who will replace him if Newsome's internal poll numbers turn out to be no better than Biden's... 

 

Hillary has been making appearances and statements lately about Trump and about Putin and the Russian/Ukraine situation.  Do the Democrats have the stomach to run her against Trump again?

Watched a bit on the polling vs special elections. The Dems are actually outperforming polling in the majority of of the byelections held so far. I think it is 32 nationwide. This includes red, purple and blue districts. Overall their performance was 11 pts above the polling. Small sample size but demographics wise was pretty much covering all bases. 

[Sabrefan1]

1 hour ago, Gnarcore said:

Watched a bit on the polling vs special elections. The Dems are actually outperforming polling in the majority of of the byelections held so far. I think it is 32 nationwide. This includes red, purple and blue districts. Overall their performance was 11 pts above the polling. Small sample size but demographics wise was pretty much covering all bases. 

 

As always, it will come down to a few swing states.  States like my own (NY) and California will vote for a cookie if it has a (D) next to it and they'll skew the overall nationwide polls.  Whereas states like Texas and Oklahoma will do the same with whatever has an (R).

 

I guarantee the in-house Democrat and Republican party polls are solely concentrating on swing states all the way down to the voting district level.

[Warhippy]

23 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

As always, it will come down to a few swing states.  States like my own (NY) and California will vote for a cookie if it has a (D) next to it and they'll skew the overall nationwide polls.  Whereas states like Texas and Oklahoma will do the same with whatever has an (R).

 

I guarantee the in-house Democrat and Republican party polls are solely concentrating on swing states all the way down to the voting district level.

They need to be very careful on the Dem side ot not ignore the existing seats up that they deem safe.  The GOP can make some more mistakes and be fine but the Dems don't have that freedom

[the destroyer of worlds]

Hunter finally going after the crew behind the laptop.  I wonder if The NY Post had meeting with their counsel regarding this story that they curated, being one of the first to "break" the story.

 

 

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4222992-hunter-biden-sues-giuliani-for-hacking-and-disseminating-his-data/

Hunter Biden sues Giuliani for ‘hacking’ and disseminating his data

[Playoff Beered]

Supreme Court rejects Alabama's defiance in voting case

https://www.npr.org/2023/09/26/1200906844/supreme-court-alabama-voting-case

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/supreme-court-alabama-redistricting/index.html

Edited September 26, 2023 by Playoff Beered

[nuckin_futz]

 

 

[nuckin_futz]

Speculation but interesting enough.....

 

 

 

 

 

[nuckin_futz]

 

 

It appears the judge decided a trial was unnecessary and could rule on the evidence presented in the filings. Can't recall ever hearing something like that before.

 

Tish James 1 -  Dotard 0

Edited September 26, 2023 by nuckin_futz

[24K]

7 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

 

 

It appears the judge decided a trial was unnecessary and could rule on the evidence presented in the filings. Can't recall ever hearing something like that before.

 

Tish James 1 -  Dotard 0

It is called a summary judgement. When evidence is overwhelming for or against, the prosecuter or defense can motion for a judgement from the judge without a trial. 

 

Guess this was overwhelming. Kinda hard not to be with value for the same property being completely different for loan applications and taxes by orders of magnitudes. 

[nuckin_futz]

Apparently the assets of the Trump Organization to be placed into a receivership to be dissolved within 10 days.

 

They will appeal and they will lose.

 

 

Also having business certificates cancelled are Eric Trump and FF Jr.

Edited September 26, 2023 by nuckin_futz

[stawns]

5 hours ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

Newsome's problem is that California is becoming a failure of a state and the rest of the country knows it.  It's residents and businesses are fleeing and he's been ineffective in turning things around so far.

 

As always, I'll vote 3rd party across my ballot when the time comes. 

 

I still play close attention to the races because I want to take and know the measure of whoever ends up winning.

California is far from a failure of a state, nor even close.  It's the 5th largest economy in the wotld

[stawns]

2 hours ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

As always, it will come down to a few swing states.  States like my own (NY) and California will vote for a cookie if it has a (D) next to it and they'll skew the overall nationwide polls.  Whereas states like Texas and Oklahoma will do the same with whatever has an (R).

 

I guarantee the in-house Democrat and Republican party polls are solely concentrating on swing states all the way down to the voting district level.

If the Dems continue to challenge gerrymandered maps and the courts continue to rule against Repugs....... we'll start to see state legislatures getting more purple as the boomers die off.

[Sabrefan1]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

They need to be very careful on the Dem side ot not ignore the existing seats up that they deem safe.  The GOP can make some more mistakes and be fine but the Dems don't have that freedom

 

The Dems made that mistake in the last election here in NY state.  They ignored some Central NY seats and if I remember correctly, a couple of island seats even, and spent the money elsewhere, and ended up losing several of those seats.

 

That almost happened here in the Buffalo area in 2008 for a US House seat.  The incumbent figured that he was a shoe-in and didn't bother campaigning.  He fell way behind in the polls, got scared, then hit the area and started "pressing the flesh" with the voters and hitting the airwaves.  He did just enough to squeak by the challenger and keep his seat.

[Sabrefan1]

37 minutes ago, stawns said:

If the Dems continue to challenge gerrymandered maps and the courts continue to rule against Repugs....... we'll start to see state legislatures getting more purple as the boomers die off.

 

Don't believe everything you see on CNN and MSNBC.  The Democrats also play the gerrymander game as much as the Republicans.  They're just less obvious about it and gerrymandering doesn't flat out break any federal election laws as long as you aren't disenfranchising a "protected class". 

 

The reason why the Republicans keep getting in trouble with the courts, and continue to get bad press, is because they gerrymander minorities and they are anything but subtle about it.  It's not a racist thing so much as it's a power grab thing.

 

Even the conservative majority Supreme Court just denied a hearing today (or yesterday) brought about by Republicans where they flat out ignored lower courts that had ordered them to redraw a more representative map in Alabama that didn't lump all blacks into one district.  https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4217097-supreme-court-refuses-to-revive-alabamas-gop-drawn-congressional-map

[Sabrefan1]

50 minutes ago, stawns said:

If the Dems continue to challenge gerrymandered maps and the courts continue to rule against Repugs....... we'll start to see state legislatures getting more purple as the boomers die off.

 

Also, as people age, they tend to get more conservative.  As the old saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

I think plenty of moderate Millennials will eventually take the place of conservative Gen X'ers and Baby Boomers.   I doubt the US will see a significant shift to the left until the Gen Z'ers become the elder generation.  Gen Z is so far left as a whole, that I'd imagine that when they take over, the US will become more like present day Europe.

 

I don't like the radical left or the radical right so thankfully I'll be long dead by the time Gen Z takes control.

[24K]

2 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

Also, as people age, they tend to get more conservative.  As the old saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

I think plenty of moderate Millennials will eventually take the place of conservative Gen X'ers and Baby Boomers.   I doubt the US will see a significant shift to the left until the Gen Z'ers become the elder generation.  Gen Z is so far left as a whole, that I'd imagine that when they take over, the US will become more like present day Europe.

 

I don't like the radical left or the radical right so thankfully I'll be long dead by the time Gen Z takes control.

Think there are researches out there finding out that younger generation including millennial do not become more conservative as the generation ages.

 

The argument if I remember correctly is that people get more conservative not because of age but rather because of having nuclear family or have giant increase in wealth accumulation. Given current generation trend in Millenials and gen z where the generation tend not to have kids or form families and the stagnation of wealth accumulation, the younger generation as a whole is not becoming more conservative. 

[Sabrefan1]

1 hour ago, stawns said:

California is far from a failure of a state, nor even close.  It's the 5th largest economy in the wotld

 

Of course they have the largest state economy.  They are the most populous state. 

 

That ranking of 5 will change if they don't get control of their social problems and businesses as well as people continue to leave the state.

 

I judge state success by more than their economy. 

 

California is hardly the only state that is currently failing.  My home state of NY is a huge mess.  That's why we're bleeding residents and as a result losing House seats after every census.  It starts happening slowly.  We were at one time a powerful state brimming with people.  We're now a shadow of what we once were.