RupertKBD Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 22 minutes ago, The Lock said: Actually, she did the opposite of accusing Biden of misconduct. She instead gave more context behind the video: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/31/joe-biden-stephanie-carter-1246007 See, I do know how to use google and if you actually used google you would be able to find out the context behind this, although I'm sure this wasn't your intention of getting us to do your homework for you. In addition: The fact that someone would post this as if it were on par for what Donald Trump did to E. Jean Carroll tells you all you need to know about the person who did so. At the very best, it's intellectually dishonest....which, I'd wager, is one of the very few times he's had the word "intellectually" used as a descriptor.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Jobs data continues it's string of impressive reports. Wage growth which had been impressive appears to have switched into overdrive. Wages now sharply outstripping inflation. 2 month net revisions are sharply higher. Not much to find fault with in this report. However it should kill the chances of a March rate cut as the Fed will not want to overstimulate the economy. US January non-farm payrolls +353K vs +180K expected January 2023 US employment data from the non-farm payrolls report Prior +216K (revised to +333K) November revised to +173K from +164K Two-month net revision +126K vs -71K prior Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.8% expected Prior unemployment rate 3.7% Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.5% prior U6 underemployment rate 7.2% vs 7.1% prior Average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +4.5% y/y vs +4.1% expected Average weekly hours 34.1 vs 34.3 expected Change in private payrolls +317K vs +164K expected Change in manufacturing payrolls +23K vs +5K expected Household survey -31K vs -683K prior Birth-death adjustment -121K vs -52K prior USD/JPY was trading at 146.67 ahead of the data and the market was pricing in 142 bps in cuts by year end and a 34% chance in March of a cut. This is undoubtedly hawkish and USD/JPY is up to 147.54 immediately with March down to 21% and 127 bps on the year. This report is reminiscent of last January's report where there was also a huge beat. There are big seasonal adjustments in January and I think the BLS is struggling with that, something I wrote about at the start of the week. Interestingly, the household survey shows a second consecutive drop in the number of employed people and exactly zero jobs growth in the past year, rising unemployment and more people who are looking for a job. What worries me here -- and will worry the Fed -- is the wage growth. it accelerated at a sharp clip. Again, that could be due to seasonal adjustments as well because wages usually reset higher in the new year. That should be adjusted for but it could be hard for the BLS because of pandemic effects. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post The Lock Posted February 2 Popular Post Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, RupertKBD said: In addition: The fact that someone would post this as if it were on par for what Donald Trump did to E. Jean Carroll tells you all you need to know about the person who did so. At the very best, it's intellectually dishonest....which, I'd wager, is one of the very few times he's had the word "intellectually" used as a descriptor.... I've said it before where I genuinely hope Wiggums figures his stuff out and breaks away from whatever brainwashing he's received. I hate to see people so radicalized to the point where they're unwilling to even listen to logic itself. Even within the right wing itself, the list of people who can see through Trump's garbage is ever-growing and I want to see the right wing get back to the way it was before Trump. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flat land fish Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 40 minutes ago, RupertKBD said: Chairman Powell disagrees with you: The piece noting inflation is declining would be the driver of lower rates. Some of the Inflation decline is due to low growth and that could turn into a recession. Recession will drive higher unemployment and further economic weakness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) 13 minutes ago, flat land fish said: The piece noting inflation is declining would be the driver of lower rates. Some of the Inflation decline is due to low growth and that could turn into a recession. Recession will drive higher unemployment and further economic weakness. This isn't really true if taken literally. It's actually the increase of economic growth which tends to cause a decline in inflation. The opposite doesn't generally happen. There's a good article that explains a lot of it: https://www.cato.org/policy-report/november/december-1999/does-growth-cause-inflation Low growth would not be the reason for the decline in inflation. Instead, low growth would be one of the factors for inflation not declining faster. Edited February 2 by The Lock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RupertKBD Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, flat land fish said: The piece noting inflation is declining would be the driver of lower rates. Some of the Inflation decline is due to low growth and that could turn into a recession. Recession will drive higher unemployment and further economic weakness. Do you have a source for that claim? Everything I can find suggests the opposite: https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-us-gdp-inflation-federal-reserve-economic-growth-canada-germany-2024-1 Quote US recession calls are still on the table, but the economy is still outpacing other rich nations. US GDP grew at a surprise 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter, beating estimates for 2.0%. Outlooks for G7 nations show slower growth and higher inflation compared to the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 21 minutes ago, RupertKBD said: At the very best, it's intellectually dishonest....which, I'd wager, is one of the very few times he's had the word "intellectually" used as a descriptor.... I think the actual Simpsons character is more intelligent 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) 3 hours ago, RupertKBD said: Do you have a source for that claim? Everything I can find suggests the opposite: https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-us-gdp-inflation-federal-reserve-economic-growth-canada-germany-2024-1 This is why I said regardless of current polling, if Biden were a stock I'd be buying him right here. Economic data rarely turns on a dime. Rather it tends to trend. Nearly all of the economic data is trending in the right direction. At some point in the not too distant future the Gaza conflict will cool down and the hostages will/should be released. This will be a plus for Biden. The border issue is going to be hung around the neck of every Republican for the House Reps sabotaging the deal on the orders of Trump. Meanwhile for Trump there is no good news on the horizon. It will be a constant drip drip of damaging headlines. Edited February 2 by nuckin_futz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiggums Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) 6 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said: I think the actual Simpsons character is more intelligent Trump should sue you for defamation Nice insults again guys, real mature. Edited February 2 by Wiggums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post nuckin_futz Posted February 2 Popular Post Share Posted February 2 Mr. Chew is the CEO of Tik Tok. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RupertKBD Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 15 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Mr. Chew is the CEO of Tik Tok. Tom Cotton from Arkansas.....that tracks. I'll bet he thinks there's nothing even slightly racist about his line of questioning. I'd also wager that a few CFF members would agree with him.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Duodenum Posted February 2 Popular Post Share Posted February 2 (edited) 57 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Jobs data continues it's string of impressive reports. Wage growth which had been impressive appears to have switched into overdrive. Wages now sharply outstripping inflation. 2 month net revisions are sharply higher. Not much to find fault with in this report. However it should kill the chances of a March rate cut as the Fed will not want to overstimulate the economy. US January non-farm payrolls +353K vs +180K expected January 2023 US employment data from the non-farm payrolls report Prior +216K (revised to +333K) November revised to +173K from +164K Two-month net revision +126K vs -71K prior Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.8% expected Prior unemployment rate 3.7% Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.5% prior U6 underemployment rate 7.2% vs 7.1% prior Average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +4.5% y/y vs +4.1% expected Average weekly hours 34.1 vs 34.3 expected Change in private payrolls +317K vs +164K expected Change in manufacturing payrolls +23K vs +5K expected Household survey -31K vs -683K prior Birth-death adjustment -121K vs -52K prior USD/JPY was trading at 146.67 ahead of the data and the market was pricing in 142 bps in cuts by year end and a 34% chance in March of a cut. This is undoubtedly hawkish and USD/JPY is up to 147.54 immediately with March down to 21% and 127 bps on the year. This report is reminiscent of last January's report where there was also a huge beat. There are big seasonal adjustments in January and I think the BLS is struggling with that, something I wrote about at the start of the week. Interestingly, the household survey shows a second consecutive drop in the number of employed people and exactly zero jobs growth in the past year, rising unemployment and more people who are looking for a job. What worries me here -- and will worry the Fed -- is the wage growth. it accelerated at a sharp clip. Again, that could be due to seasonal adjustments as well because wages usually reset higher in the new year. That should be adjusted for but it could be hard for the BLS because of pandemic effects. Weird part is how low Biden's approval in regards to the economy. All the data shows that the economy has flourished in his time. The brainwashing is strong, all the facts disregarded because of feels. Too many people just don't care about the truth. Edited February 2 by Duodenum 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Roberta Kaplan says Trump threw papers across table at Mar-a-Lago deposition because his legal team agreed to feed her lunch https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/politics/roberta-kaplan-donald-trump-deposition-maralago/index.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 36 minutes ago, Duodenum said: Weird part is how low Biden's approval in regards to the economy. All the data shows that the economy has flourished in his time. The brainwashing is strong, all the facts disregarded because of feels. Too many people just don't care about the truth. The sting from the bout of inflation is strong. The funny thing is he's hardly responsible for the inflation. There's 2 main factors which result in inflation. #1) an increase in the monetary supply #2) a decrease in production. There has been a major increase in the monetary supply since 2009 which did not result in inflation because production kept up. Enter Covid, you had every major central bank (The Federal Reserve, Canada, European Union, England, Japan, Australia etc) flooding the markets with stimulus "at levels no one has ever seen before" to quote a certain orange someone. At a time when production was greatly curtailed and supply chains were hampered. The deficit spending Biden is incurring while large is dwarfed by the deficit spending under Trump. So where was the genesis for inflation? I'll leave that up to everyone to decide for themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 First US retaliatory strikes underway in Syria - report ABC report It's no surprise but bombs are reportedly falling in Syria right now in response to the US soldiers killed last weekend. Earlier this week there were reports that Biden had authorized strikes in Iraq and Syria in response. So long as no bombs fall in Iran, I don't think this will matter for markets, including oil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Trump Accuses Fed Chairman, Who He Nominated, of Trying to Improve Economy to Help Joe Biden: ‘He’s Political’ https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump-accuses-fed-chairman-who-he-appointed-of-trying-to-improve-economy-to-help-joe-biden-hes-political/ 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistolPete13 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, Satchmo said: So here is a rare occasion where I have to agree with Mr. Wiggums. Trump used his fingers not his willie, thus proving he always makes the right decisions. NEW YORK (AP) — A jury found Donald Trump liable Tuesday for sexually abusing advice columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996, awarding her $5 million in a judgment that could haunt the former president as he campaigns to regain the White House. The verdict was split: Jurors rejected Carroll’s claim that she was raped, finding Trump responsible for a lesser degree of sexual abuse. The judgment adds to Trump’s legal woes and offers vindication to Carroll, whose allegations had been mocked and dismissed by Trump for years. If Trump tried to use his willie he would have been charged with assault with a dead weapon. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, PistolPete13 said: If Trump tried to use his willie he would have been charged with assault with a dead weapon. Which wouldn't be his two inch p*cker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RupertKBD Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 One has to wonder why Republicans allow the moron to comment on anything..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, Wiggums said: And all the other women who have accused Biden of inappropriate conduct? Lemme guess, all liars? Got it Ok who are all these other women? Please let us know who they all are. 7 hours ago, Wiggums said: I love when you act like you don't know how to use Google. Creepy Joe loves a woman's scent Ok but, who are all these women who accused Biden? 6 hours ago, Wiggums said: Video is unrelated to any of the accusers, I guess I should of clarified that. How many accusers? Who are they? 6 hours ago, Wiggums said: Trump should sue you for defamation Nice insults again guys, real mature. Ok great you're feelings are hurt. But who are all these accusers and how many are there 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabrefan1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) I only listen to and/or watch his podcast when he has scientists like Michio Kaku on, or an actor or comedian that I like on, but I figured I'd post this because I know how much the left leaning people on this board love him with all their hearts and so badly wanted him cancelled. *edit* I have it in US Politics because he's been very politicized by a large percentage of the Western Hemisphere. Edited February 3 by Sabrefan1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ilunga Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Sabrefan1 said: I only listen to and/or watch his podcast when he has scientists like Michio Kaku on, or an actor or comedian that I like on, but I figured I'd post this because I know how much the left leaning people on this board love him with all their hearts and so badly wanted him cancelled. *edit* I have it in US Politics because he's been very politicized by a large percentage of the Western Hemisphere. I am sure he endeared himself to many Canadians when he referred to Canada as a " frozen communist shithole " 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spur1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 11 hours ago, Wiggums said: Trump should sue you for defamation Nice insults again guys, real mature. If the shoe fits. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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