US Politics Thread

[RWMc1]

2 hours ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

 

Trump is winning the battleground states in most polls.  People are too busy concentrating on the popular vote polls.  Biden may win the popular vote no matter what. 

 

Winning the popular vote doesn't make you the POTUS.  Winning the electoral college does that.

I suspect that if Republicans do anything shady it will involve electoral college votes. They've put Trump loyalists in place in a few states. It's possible that at the last moment one or more of them will give all the votes to Trump regardless of the voters wishes. That could swing the tide.

[24K]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Even CNN is pointing out the Zelenskyy Putin mistake…

 

 

Dude to be fair. Biden caught his mistake immediately and played it off well enough with Zelensky. Hardly devastating. People slip up names all the time when there is something bothering their mind which is Russia and Putin in this instance.

 

Now the VP Trump one is more inexcusable as he did not correct himself.

[Sabrefan1]

36 minutes ago, 24K said:

Here is where we stand on the popular vote. (Using 538 cause the at least do some filtering of garbage polls unlike realclear politics)

 

 

Arizona:

Trump still well ahead but Biden pulled in after debate.

 

Georgia:

Same story as Arizona.

 

Michigan:

Once again same as the other two.

 

Nevada:

This is either a wash or Trump opening up. Pretty mixed picture.

 

North Carolina:

I really don't think this is even a battle ground state but from what we have no change.

 

Ohio:

Again not really a battle ground state. Trump did open up here.

 

Penn:

Now this is the killer.

 

Wisconsin:

Biden clearly went up in this one.

 

Don't have post debate state polls for Minnesota.

 

So essentially only true battleground state where Biden is slipping in Pennsylvania. You can also throw in Ohio like the pundits like to pretend that ain't a solid gop state nowadays.

 

Other key battle state either is a wash or show Biden tightening it up while you see a clear slippage of Biden in the popular vote.

 

That said, Biden ain't doing well in those state that did tighten up and really ain't ahead to begin with.

 

So going by trend with the whole post debate polling, Biden is doing worse on the popular vote front than he is in the battle ground state front with the only really killer being Pennsylvania.

 

If trend hold, this may be the first election in which Dem loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college should Biden win.

 

That said I think Biden will lose to Trump and why I want him replaced as the only real reason he is behind is his age and people want someone else that is not the incumbent. There should be no reason why Trump isn't getting destroyed with his conviction, record, and other questionable activities and equally degraded age and mental capacity.

 

I had always maintained the only person Trump can beat is Biden and the only person Biden can beat is Trump. Why not remove the Biden side of the equation if you are the Dem.

 

 

Thanks for taking the time and breaking down your opinion into detail.  You put effort into it and I enjoyed reading your post very much and it's most certainly informative.

 

The tweet that I posted from NBC News' political managing editor has shaken my belief that Biden can still win this election.  The people to re-elect him don't think that he's going to take the swing states apparently.

 

The new media clickbait though is that they are trying to call NY a battleground now.  Biden is still winning NY by 9 points.  That's well outside the margin of error.  Biden will win NY by plenty of votes.

[24K]

23 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

 

Thanks for taking the time and breaking down your opinion into detail.  You put effort into it and I enjoyed reading your post very much and it's most certainly informative.

 

The tweet that I posted from NBC News' political managing editor has shaken my belief that Biden can still win this election.  The people to re-elect him don't think that he's going to take the swing states apparently.

 

The new media clickbait though is that they are trying to call NY a battleground now.  Biden is still winning NY by 9 points.  That's well outside the margin of error.  Biden will win NY by plenty of votes.

I think the real issue is with Pennsylvania. That is the lynch pin to Biden's victory.

 

He is clearly losing Penn at this point and without it, Biden's path to victory has no margin for error if there is any without Pennsylvania. 

 

I think that is the real concern with the staffers saying Biden has no path to victory. 

Edited July 12 by 24K

[Sabrefan1]

20 minutes ago, RWMc1 said:

I suspect that if Republicans do anything shady it will involve electoral college votes. They've put Trump loyalists in place in a few states. It's possible that at the last moment one or more of them will give all the votes to Trump regardless of the voters wishes. That could swing the tide.

 

The SCOTUS put a stop to that possibility just 4 years ago when people were worrying about "faithless electors" then.  They can go to prison if they even attempt it.

(Chiafalo v. Washington)

 

 

https://ask.loc.gov/law/faq/331082

[Sabrefan1]

1 minute ago, 24K said:

I think the real issue is with Pennsylvania. That is the lynch pin to Biden's victory.

 

He is clearly losing Penn at this point and without it, Biden's path to victory has no margin for ever if there is any without Pennsylvania. 

 

I think that is the real concern with the staffers saying Biden has no path to victory. 

 

A couple months ago, some political commentators were using Virginia as a bellwether state on Biden's candidacy.  But he's pulled a few points ahead of Trump in the time since then.  Kamala Harris polls roughly even with Trump in Virginia last I checked.

 

If Biden loses Pennsylvania, then he'd likely have to carry both Michigan and Wisconsin to even that out.  Even then, things would get hairy because Trump will take Ohio and Florida and likely Georgia too.

[RWMc1]

16 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

The SCOTUS put a stop to that possibility just 4 years ago when people were worrying about "faithless electors" then.  They can go to prison if they even attempt it.

(Chiafalo v. Washington)

 

 

https://ask.loc.gov/law/faq/331082

Thanks, I wasn't aware of that. One less avenue for them.

 

I just remember there was talk of that being done long time ago so I thought maybe there was precedence. Thankfully not.

[King Heffy]

1 hour ago, Joe-Kerr said:

The dems are absolutley screwed lol Bidens brain has been mush for about 4/5 years now. The problem is they just cant hide it anymore. And they have no one to replace him! I would be shocked if they keep him in though, the guy can barely make it though a sentence without completely flubbing. Its the independents that win the elections and i cant see anyone in their right mind voting for this guy.

When the alternative is Nazi vermin like Trump, I can't see anyone in their right mind not voting for Biden. 

[Curmudgeon]

It isn't Trump that Democrats should fear, but the vast, far right Republican boards and agencies and commissions who are or will be willing to reject the will of the voters. We'd like to think the court system will uphold the laws on the books, but with a rotten Supreme Court and a crap-ton of Trump appointed judges, all bets are off. The scary thing is there are Republican jurisdictions who are ever more emboldened to refuse to certify election results. This is from the USA Today, July 11, 2024:

 

In a first, Republican majority on a Nevada county commission refuses to certify election

 

Three Republican commissioners in a key Nevada swing county have refused to certify an election recount, creating new turmoil in a community that since the 2020 election has been a hotbed for election skepticism, misinformation, and vitriol against public officials. The members make up a majority of the Washoe County Commission, a five-member board in the Reno area that signs off on all election results in the county and will be responsible for holding a similar vote after the Nov. 5 presidential election.  

The secretary of state and attorney general said Wednesday night the commissioners have failed to uphold a nonpartisan law and are asking the Nevada Supreme Court to require the entire county commission to meet their legal obligations and certify the results.

-------

Now, if you think it is okay for any election commission to reject the majority of electors, then democracy no longer exists. And if you are okay with that, you are an idiot who deserves every ounce of misery that will inevitably destroy American society as we know it.

 

[Curmudgeon]

48 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

It isn't Trump that Democrats should fear, but the vast, far right Republican boards and agencies and commissions who are or will be willing to reject the will of the voters. We'd like to think the court system will uphold the laws on the books, but with a rotten Supreme Court and a crap-ton of Trump appointed judges, all bets are off. The scary thing is there are Republican jurisdictions who are ever more emboldened to refuse to certify election results. This is from the USA Today, July 11, 2024:

 

In a first, Republican majority on a Nevada county commission refuses to certify election

 

Three Republican commissioners in a key Nevada swing county have refused to certify an election recount, creating new turmoil in a community that since the 2020 election has been a hotbed for election skepticism, misinformation, and vitriol against public officials. The members make up a majority of the Washoe County Commission, a five-member board in the Reno area that signs off on all election results in the county and will be responsible for holding a similar vote after the Nov. 5 presidential election.  

The secretary of state and attorney general said Wednesday night the commissioners have failed to uphold a nonpartisan law and are asking the Nevada Supreme Court to require the entire county commission to meet their legal obligations and certify the results.

-------

Now, if you think it is okay for any election commission to reject the majority of electors, then democracy no longer exists. And if you are okay with that, you are an idiot who deserves every ounce of misery that will inevitably destroy American society as we know it.

 

 

Edit: Found this, too. From January.

 

Elise Stefanik Refuses to Commit to Certify 2024 Results, Calls January 6 Prisoners “Hostages”

New York Representative Elise Stefanik, the fourth-ranking member of House Republican leadership and a staunch defender of former President Donald Trump, refused to say whether she would certify the 2024 presidential election results. “We will see if this is a legal and valid election,” Stefanik told Kirsten Welker of NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” Stefanik went on to accuse Democrats of “suppression of the American people,” referencing the various legal efforts to keep Trump off the ballot in 2024.

[Sabrefan1]

8 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

 

Edit: Found this, too. From January.

 

Elise Stefanik Refuses to Commit to Certify 2024 Results, Calls January 6 Prisoners “Hostages”

New York Representative Elise Stefanik, the fourth-ranking member of House Republican leadership and a staunch defender of former President Donald Trump, refused to say whether she would certify the 2024 presidential election results. “We will see if this is a legal and valid election,” Stefanik told Kirsten Welker of NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” Stefanik went on to accuse Democrats of “suppression of the American people,” referencing the various legal efforts to keep Trump off the ballot in 2024.

 

 

A few of them tried that tact once already.  The election was still certified anyways and It didn't go well for them in the end.  Biden was still sworn in as president and they had to see MAGA feces smeared on the chamber walls.

[Duodenum]

19 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

 

A few of them tried that tact once already.  The election was still certified anyways and It didn't go well for them in the end.  Biden was still sworn in as president and they had to see MAGA feces smeared on the chamber walls.

The law works until it doesn't. They'll get closer each time they try, especially with the way things are going.

[Sabrefan1]

40 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

The law works until it doesn't. They'll get closer each time they try, especially with the way things are going.

 

She's kissing Trump's butt by saying what she's saying.  Trump's nuthuggers want a spot in his administration and will say anything to get one.  She's also from New York.  Letitia James would be licking her chops to be able to prosecute her.

[CBH1926]

8 hours ago, Curmudgeon said:

 

Edit: Found this, too. From January.

 

Elise Stefanik Refuses to Commit to Certify 2024 Results, Calls January 6 Prisoners “Hostages”

New York Representative Elise Stefanik, the fourth-ranking member of House Republican leadership and a staunch defender of former President Donald Trump, refused to say whether she would certify the 2024 presidential election results. “We will see if this is a legal and valid election,” Stefanik told Kirsten Welker of NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” Stefanik went on to accuse Democrats of “suppression of the American people,” referencing the various legal efforts to keep Trump off the ballot in 2024.

There are photos of her hiding in the chamber during January 6th insurrection.

She should have come out to say hello to these so called hostages.

Another soulless ghoul trying to capitalize on Trump and MAGA cult.

[Bob Long]

6 hours ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

She's kissing Trump's butt by saying what she's saying.  Trump's nuthuggers want a spot in his administration and will say anything to get one.  She's also from New York.  Letitia James would be licking her chops to be able to prosecute her.

 

I mean why not? If you don't need actual skills, talent or experience, this is your moment. Just say what maga's want to hear in short sentences .

 

[Smashian Kassian]

We live in the best timeline

 

 

[Bob Long]

7 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

We live in the best timeline

 

 

 

By best, you mean two really awful choices for the US?

 

Also what do you think trump winning means to Canada? It might not be funny this time next year 

[Smashian Kassian]

33 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

By best, you mean two really awful choices for the US?

 

Also what do you think trump winning means to Canada? It might not be funny this time next year 

 

I mean best in the sense that it's hilarious & unbelievable how far things have sunk, reality has turned to parody.

 

[Bob Long]

24 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I mean best in the sense that it's hilarious & unbelievable how far things have sunk, reality has turned to parody.

 

 

I guess I have a hard time seeing it funny, when I think about what's going to happen to Ukraine eg when trump wins, or the inevitable stupid shit he'll try to pull with Canada. 

[Warhippy]

43 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

I guess I have a hard time seeing it funny, when I think about what's going to happen to Ukraine eg when trump wins, or the inevitable stupid shit he'll try to pull with Canada. 

I absolutely wish I could remember where I was reading this statement (pretty sure it was an energy report)

 

But it had to do with the pentagons recent war chest regarding rare earth metals and how they had factored Canada in as the single best place to find them to ensure Chinese supremacy didn't hamper uS defensive capabilities.

 

A mining expert in Canada was asked outright about a Trump presidency and the knowledge that Trump would essentially force Canada to do with mining what we do with oil and sell to the US at a lower price or creating a separate market price for Canadian minerals to the benefit of the US

 

It was essentially said that, Canada doesn't have the same issues with China that Trump and the US do and that China is a major player in Canadian energy and resources and if Trump tried to force Canada to accept the US as a soul buyer for our resources that mining companies would have little to no issue just selling directly to China and India as we don't have the same restrictions at ports for mining materials as we do for oil.

[Sabrefan1]

1 hour ago, Bob Long said:

I guess I have a hard time seeing it funny, when I think about what's going to happen to Ukraine eg when trump wins, or the inevitable stupid shit he'll try to pull with Canada. 

 

He tried to screw with NAFTA once already and didn't get much more out of it.  There's very little else left for him to mess with as far as Canada goes that isn't already covered by treaty.  If he unilaterally withdrew from any treaties with Canada, that could potentially work out poorly for the US.  The US can't afford for Canada to shut off the spigot of raw materials, like oil, to the country.

 

Now China on the other hand...  Conservatives are pushing for manufacturing to come back to the US.  That means that China could get hit with tariffs that increase year over year.

[DSVII]

3 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said:

 

He tried to screw with NAFTA once already and didn't get much more out of it.  There's very little else left for him to mess with as far as Canada goes that isn't already covered by treaty.  If he unilaterally withdrew from any treaties with Canada, that could potentially work out poorly for the US.  The US can't afford for Canada to shut off the spigot of raw materials, like oil, to the country.

 

Now China on the other hand...  Conservatives are pushing for manufacturing to come back to the US.  That means that China could get hit with tariffs that increase year over year.

Won't China simply do what it did last time and just make deals with Vietnam/Southeast Asia to build 99% of the product in China, slap a made in Vietnam with the 1% assembly in those countries, and just bypass the Tariffs altogether?

[Sabrefan1]

1 minute ago, DSVII said:

Won't China simply do what it did last time and just make deals with Vietnam/Southeast Asia to build 99% of the product in China, slap a made in Vietnam with the 1% assembly in those countries, and just bypass the Tariffs altogether?

 

Congress would have to pass legislation to stop that.

[bolt]

 

[Sabrefan1]

Like him or not, he doesn't give a sh*t about p*ssing off governments when they try to censor speech.  The EU was foolish to think that he was going to stay silent.

 

He's halfway there.  Now he just has to stop X from suspending accounts for speech that he personally doesn't like.