JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 7 minutes ago, bishopshodan said: I'm gonna trust them. Cause, they must be super smart as the time stamps on the tweets suggest they have figured out time travel. It's twitter ffs. It requires no verification of identity and its world wide. If there is a less reliable polling method out there I have yet to see it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 26 minutes ago, bishopshodan said: Weird, the tweet that says 'Let's try this again' is dated a day before the other version of the question.... They did a poll about a two weeks ago in regard to the second tweet, the first poll is unrelated to the second poll... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 21 minutes ago, JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo said: How did you find out about them? 800k followers is huge? I have no idea who they are so I googled them. It's seems as though most on the left have labelled them as grifters. They thrive on engaging Trumpers so it makes sense a lot them would be motivated to vote. Plus bots and trolls that were already mentioned. I follow them. Between the two of them they have 2 million followers. Also, Silent Sam seems to follow them too as he posted their stuff as well. Not sure I'd call them grifters, but they are certainly monetizing what they do on Twitter like many other people do... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Just now, Elias Pettersson said: They did a poll about a two weeks ago in regard to the second tweet, the first poll is unrelated to the second poll... The way it is displayed is strange. The second tweet you posted is dated a day before but reads like a follow-up clarification question. "Let's try this again" Doesn't that seem strange to you EP? If it was from two weeks ago, was it the first poll? and if so, why would you ask " lets try this again' ...and Biden stepped down about week ago so why was he asking about Kamala? I guess he knew it might happen? and if so, then the poll was conducted before Kamala was actually the pick. Which could make sense. Kamala's popularity seems to have sky rocketed surprisingly once she was announced, not before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6of1_halfdozenofother Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 54 minutes ago, Satchmo said: That's why you have to look at a lot of them and still take them with a grain of salt. A poll done on twitter needs to be taken with multi grains. By the way, I was so focused on trying to find an appropriate "grain of salt" pic that I forgot to mention that the person you replied to sure likes to refer to a lot of polls in the Canadian politics thread even as he himself points out here that they in general can be manipulated. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 12 minutes ago, bishopshodan said: The way it is displayed is strange. The second tweet you posted is dated a day before but reads like a follow-up clarification question. "Let's try this again" Doesn't that seem strange to you EP? If it was from two weeks ago, was it the first poll? and if so, why would you ask " lets try this again' ...and Biden stepped down about week ago so why was he asking about Kamala? I guess he knew it might happen? and if so, then the poll was conducted before Kamala was actually the pick. Which could make sense. Kamala's popularity seems to have sky rocketed surprisingly once she was announced, not before. I don't know the exact date of the first poll as I couldn't find it. However, both polls are unrelated as per the timeline on his feed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: I don't know the exact date of the first poll as I couldn't find it. However, both polls are unrelated as per the timeline on his feed... Well, I'm throwing them out with the bathwater if they are from before Kamala was announced. Seems like a whole new world. Cat ladies are locked and loaded. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Just now, bishopshodan said: Well, I'm throwing them out with the bathwater if they are from before Kamala was announced. Seems like a whole new world. Cat ladies are locked and loaded. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said: The Krassenstein brothers are Democrats who have a huge following on Twitter. Brian even did the poll twice and it came out the same. So, if these polls can be manipulated as you suggest then why can't every poll also be manipulated? Because there's an entire profession around it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, Warhippy said: Twitter bots. China and Russia baby Probably. Apparently that "proves" all polls are bad now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 minute ago, Bob Long said: Because there's an entire profession around it? Sure. And the entire profession is supposedly deemed to be biased based on how they conduct their polls. How else do you explain this discrepancy? Two polls on the same day (3 hours apart) with completely different results? Doesn't that tell you the polls are manipulated to what the pollster wants to see? So which poll is correct Bob? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 4 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Sure. And the entire profession is supposedly deemed to be biased based on how they conduct their polls. How else do you explain this discrepancy? Two polls on the same day (3 hours apart) with completely different results? Doesn't that tell you the polls are manipulated to what the pollster wants to see? So which poll is correct Bob? Well the second one actually provided the sample size for one thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the destroyer of worlds Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Sure. And the entire profession is supposedly deemed to be biased based on how they conduct their polls. How else do you explain this discrepancy? Two polls on the same day (3 hours apart) with completely different results? Doesn't that tell you the polls are manipulated to what the pollster wants to see? So which poll is correct Bob? Polymarket isn't a polling organization. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market, built atop the Ethereum and Polygon blockchain networks. People are BETTING on stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Two polls on the same day (3 hours apart) Are you sure?..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RupertKBD Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 In other news, Tish James looks poised to take another scumbag to the cleaners....possibly an entire organization of scumbags.... https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/disgraced-nra-head-tells-judge-proposed-punishment-would-be-putting-a-knife-into-group/ar-BB1qQo6I?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=d777374a5565468bab79f6229b59a212&ei=47 Quote Wayne LaPierre, the former head of the National Rifle Association, told a judge that appointing a financial monitor would be "equivalent to putting a knife straight through the heart of the organization and twisting it." According to The Associated Press, LaPierre made the remarks Monday on the final day of arguments in a case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James. The attorney general is seeking an independent monitor for the NRA after LaPierre and another deputy were found guilty of misspending millions of dollars of the organization's funds. The AP said that LaPierre told the judge in Monday's hearing that a monitor would be an "existential threat to the group because it would send a message to prospective members and donors that the NRA was 'being surveilled by this attorney general in New York.'" "General James will have achieved her objective to fulfill that campaign promise of, in effect, dissolving the NRA for a lack of money and a lack of members," LaPierre claimed. The former head of the organization also argued against a ban on his future participation in the gun group. However, NRA attorney Sarah Rogers told the judge that the organization had no plans to rehire LaPierre. In a statement, James said, "LaPierre used charitable dollars to fund his lavish lifestyle, spending millions on luxury travel, expensive clothes, insider contracts, and other perks for himself and his family." "LaPierre and senior leaders at the NRA blatantly abused their positions and broke the law," she added. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 19 minutes ago, the destroyer of worlds said: Polymarket isn't a polling organization. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market, built atop the Ethereum and Polygon blockchain networks. People are BETTING on stuff. Meh, I guess. Doesn't the house always win though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 19 minutes ago, bishopshodan said: Are you sure?..... Touche... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the destroyer of worlds Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Meh, I guess. Doesn't the house always win though? Not always. Especially if they get their odds wrong. Like when they gave 5000 to 1 for Leicester City to win the Premier League in 15/16. Number of British books were offering early payouts with games remaining on the schedule in an attempt to limit how much they were going to have to pay out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 38 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Sure. And the entire profession is supposedly deemed to be biased based on how they conduct their polls. How else do you explain this discrepancy? Two polls on the same day (3 hours apart) with completely different results? Doesn't that tell you the polls are manipulated to what the pollster wants to see? So which poll is correct Bob? I know you love to do this, but really, anyone can go to a credible pollster website and see the methodology used, how they estimate and account for bias, etc. Your shtick only works if people don't bother to do their homework. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 47 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Sure. And the entire profession is supposedly deemed to be biased based on how they conduct their polls. How else do you explain this discrepancy? Two polls on the same day (3 hours apart) with completely different results? Doesn't that tell you the polls are manipulated to what the pollster wants to see? So which poll is correct Bob? Neither of them.......online polls are not even remotely credible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post 4petesake Posted July 29 Popular Post Share Posted July 29 1 hour ago, JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo said: It's twitter ffs. It requires no verification of identity and its world wide. If there is a less reliable polling method out there I have yet to see it. 538 has them rated at 0 stars with a reliability score just a few spots behind @Ricky Ravioli’s poll of his grandmas whether or not they thought he was cute. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 9 minutes ago, Bob Long said: I know you love to do this, but really, anyone can go to a credible pollster website and see the methodology used, how they estimate and account for bias, etc. Your shtick only works if people don't bother to do their homework. I tried to do so for Polymarket and no such luck. There's your difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 2 minutes ago, stawns said: Neither of them.......online polls are not even remotely credible interesting article here on online poll bias. Honestly I think this might account for some of PP's numbers: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/02/18/assessing-the-risks-to-online-polls-from-bogus-respondents/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 minute ago, Bob Long said: interesting article here on online poll bias. Honestly I think this might account for some of PP's numbers: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/02/18/assessing-the-risks-to-online-polls-from-bogus-respondents/ Just read that too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4petesake Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 3 minutes ago, stawns said: Just read that too I was reading something earlier from Pew on opt-in polls and bogus answers and was struck by this - To help us observe this phenomenon in practice, we asked an opt-in sample to tell us whether they were licensed to drive a nuclear submarine, a qualification held by very few Americans. (While the exact number of submarine operators is unavailable, the entire U.S. Navy constitutes less than 0.2% of the adult population.) Among adults under 30 in this opt-in sample, 12% said yes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.