US Politics Thread

[Bob Long]

Just now, 24K said:

I am not playing gatekeeper. I feel like you don't fully read my post and I have to repeat myself every time. 

 

Your link didn't work. I posted one with the actual margins that does work with some additional analysis from npr. 

 

[nuckin_futz]

 

 

[24K]

16 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

Your link didn't work. I posted one with the actual margins that does work with some additional analysis from npr. 

 

I was trying to get pass a pay wall for your benefit but I guess it doesn't work in Canada. 

 

Here is original link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clin

 

But anyways both source show the same information. 

 

Both source have the same analysis and conclusion, saying Bernie costed Hillary was nonsense realistically. Yes, Hillary could have won if she got all of Sanders voters if you go by the math but realistically you can't expect 100% transfer of vote from one candidate to the other not to mention Sander to Trump voters is on the lower end of flip voters in the general election. Like I quote almost 1 in 4 (24%) of Hillary voter went to McCain instead of towing the part line and voted for Obama. 

Edited August 21 by 24K

[Smashian Kassian]

18 minutes ago, 24K said:

I doubt anyone can turn that camapign around. It was doomed the moment the opponent isn't Biden. That is the fundamental truth of this election.

 

Americans are tired of Trump and find Biden to be a loving fossil. Anyone other than those two will get the wave of support we are seeing with Kamala. 

 

You say Trump is a more legitimate candidate but thatbis probably more than offset in many voters eyes by his action on Jan 6th and his 34 convictions making him a less legitimate candidate. 

 

Honestly Trump might have way more support and likely be winning against any Dem had he just conceded to Biden in 2020. 

 

I disagree with the bolded. Biden only dropped out a month ago, this race is far from over. And Kamala Harris is not a good candidate in her own right. Yes the Democrats are very excited, but alot of this hype around her is corporate media generated & Im not convinced it's a lasting representative of the majority of non-registered voters at all.

 

You can go back & look at the leftist talking heads from the time between the debate that sank Biden & the time Biden was officially out/Kamala officially in. She was best positioned but there was never a clear consensus that she was the best candidate.

Spoiler

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/25/top-10-democrats-president-rankings-biden/

 

I saw it was confirmed today that she dropped out of the 2nd debate, which is probably a good move for her, I think she has alot more to lose going into these debates than Trump cause she isn't good at talking off script & alot of non-Democrats see it clearly.

 

Then there's always other factors; whether her socialist proposals will be popular to non-Dems, how much being tied to the current administration will hurt her, exc.

[Smashian Kassian]

1 hour ago, Bob Long said:

 

Even if she was right that "basket of deplorables" comment came off really arrogant. 

 

If you look at the slim margins and the pretty large number of bernie to trump vote switching, you have to wonder if she cost herself some support from that group.

 

I think there was also a perverse incentive that worked against them by telling a free population that they cannot do something (vote for Trump).

 

Back then it was very much a socially engineered push that voting for Trump was not acceptable, you were automatically unworthy of being entertained let alone respect if you support Trump, and there wasn't even a conversation to be had in the matter b/c the acceptable choice was obvious & made apparent for you.

 

It was part of their strategy, along with giving him all that free pub to get the GOP nomination thinking he would be easiest to beat, and the it failed spectacularly. Was a very arrogant way of going about it.

 

Edited August 21 by Smashian Kassian

[24K]

27 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I disagree with the bolded. Biden only dropped out a month ago, this race is far from over. And Kamala Harris is not a good candidate in her own right. Yes the Democrats are very excited, but alot of this hype around her is corporate media generated & Im not convinced it's a lasting representative of the majority of non-registered voters at all.

 

You can go back & look at the leftist talking heads from the time between the debate that sank Biden & the time Biden was officially out/Kamala officially in. She was best positioned but there was never a clear consensus that she was the best candidate.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/25/top-10-democrats-president-rankings-biden/

 

I saw it was confirmed today that she dropped out of the 2nd debate, which is probably a good move for her, I think she has alot more to lose going into these debates than Trump cause she isn't good at talking off script & alot of non-Democrats see it clearly.

 

Then there's always other factors; whether her socialist proposals will be popular to non-Dems, how much being tied to the current administration will hurt her, exc.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

I think this is the problem for people like us that discuss politics. We get bogged down by all these minutias and policies when at end of the day election are pretty simple affair. 

 

Obama won based on his unmatched charisma and message of hope and change after the disastrous Bush presidency. 

 

Obama won again cause of Obama's unmatched charisma and things being pretty damn good in US at the time. 

 

Trump won cause most of the country despise Hillary's elitist attitude and her decades long baggage finally caught up to her.

 

Biden won cause of Trump and his disastrous response to covid.

 

This time, the overall theme is people are tired of Biden and Trump and want a fresh air. Trump was winning against Biden cause of Biden's age and Americans don't think he can survive for 4 more years. 

 

You know I live in ruby red Idaho and everyone I talked to that isn't maga have the same response before Biden dropped out. "I wish we had someone differnet and younger."

Edited August 21 by 24K

[24K]

31 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

I saw it was confirmed today that she dropped out of the 2nd debate, which is probably a good move for her, I think she has alot more to lose going into these debates than Trump cause she isn't good at talking off script & alot of non-Democrats see it clearly.

Missed this.

 

Where did you see that? Only source I can find is Trump saying Kamala pulled out of Fox News debate on Sept 4th on a truth social post. For one, saying she pulled out is not exactly correct as there was not a fox news debate agree upon to begin with and second she will never agree to a fox news debate just like Trump will never agree to a msnbc hosted debate.

 

The only debate agreed upon is ABC on spet 10th and vp one on Oct 1st on CBS.

Edited August 21 by 24K

[Smashian Kassian]

2 minutes ago, 24K said:

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

I think this is the problem for people like us that discuss politics. We get bogged down by all these minutias and policies when at end of the day election are pretty simple affair. 

 

Obama won based on his unmatched charisma and message if hope and change after the disastrous Bush presidency. 

 

Obama won again cause of Obama's unmatched charisma and things being pretty damn good in US at the time. 

 

Trump won cause most of the country despise Hillary's elitist attitude and her decades long baggage finally getting caught up to her.

 

Biden won cause of Trump and his disastrous response to covid.

 

This time, the overall theme is people are tired of Biden and Trump and want a fresh air. Trump was winning against Biden cause of Biden's age and Americans don't think he can survive for 4 more years. 

 

I think your analysis is mostly spot on, but the only disagreement is I think there's more support for Trump this time than 2020. The political dynamic is totally different now than 2020 or 2016.

 

One major thing I forgot to mention that leads me to that, is that I think more people are increasingly seeing the Democratic party as transparently corrupted/captured & dishonest. Which isn't minutiae. And is also why RFK has gotten pretty significant support (by 3rd party standards).

 

Now as a Bernie supporter (if I have that right?) you know that they've controlled the process to deny him the nomination the last 2 cycles, but for normies I think what has happened with Biden is far more glaring & profound:

 

Independent/non-partisan people have watched the president clearly declining for years. The party continually responded to this legitimate concern with all arms of the party assuring the public that, no, he's completely fine. Then things got worse & those same people/entities had no choice but to do a complete 180 and concede this facade when they had to force him out after the debate. Then they handpick a candidate who was extremely unpopular (least popular VP at one point), then proceed forward with a mass media campaign as if nothing unusual had happened.

 

I think this whole situation has been transparent in how it's played out, and it will hurt them. Especially if RFK drops out & endorses Trump which is the latest rumour.

 

Not saying Kamala still can't win, but I don't think it's at all in the bag.

 

[Sabrefan1]

1 hour ago, Jaimito said:

That speech by Ana Navarro about how dictators put their family and friends in positions of power when they aren't the best person to do the job rings true. Nepotism will not get the best people to do the job.  Also, many of those that have real skill and have taken a chance to work for Trump in the first term have left him. They realized what a terrible boss he is. Trump has a talent deficit in this campaign. 

 

All true, but he has enough money between his own war chest and the RNC's stash to overpay anyone still available.  He needs to do that now.

 

Personally I think it's likely an ego thing.  He wants to win it again mostly on his own.  He's failing and he's running out of time to boot.

 

The Republicans are beginning to pay for his poor showing down ticket also, if the polling is accurate, just like when Joe was dragging the Democrats down.

[Smashian Kassian]

12 minutes ago, 24K said:

Missed this.

 

Where did you see that? Only source I can find is Trump saying Kamala pulled out of Fox News debate on a truth social post. For one, saying she pulled out is not exactly correct as there was not a fox news debate agree upon to begin with and second she will never agree to a fox news debate just like Trump will never agree to a msnbc hosted debate.

 

The only debate agreed upon is ABC on spet 10th and vp one on Oct 1st on CBS.

 

Trump had actually already agreed to all 3, Harris had previously dodged questions about the 2nd & 3rd debates so it was unclear, but people on twitter today now claiming she officially denied the 2nd debate as you saw. 

 

Trump did do debates on CNN which is no better than MSNBC, I don't think he's as worried about it in all honesty. Though I don't blame Harris from a strategy stand-point.

[24K]

2 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I think your analysis is mostly spot on, but the only disagreement is I think there's more support for Trump this time than 2020. The political dynamic is totally different now than 2020 or 2016.

 

One major thing I forgot to mention that leads me to that, is that I think more people are increasingly seeing the Democratic party as transparently corrupted/captured & dishonest. Which isn't minutiae. And is also why RFK has gotten pretty significant support (by 3rd party standards).

 

Now as a Bernie supporter (if I have that right?) you know that they've controlled the process to deny him the nomination the last 2 cycles, but for normies I think what has happened with Biden is far more glaring & profound:

 

Independent/non-partisan people have watched the president clearly declining for years. The party continually responded to this legitimate concern with all arms of the party assuring the public that, no, he's completely fine. Then things got worse & those same people/entities had no choice but to do a complete 180 and concede this facade when they had to force him out after the debate. Then they handpick a candidate who was extremely unpopular (least popular VP at one point), then proceed forward with a mass media campaign as if nothing unusual had happened.

 

I think this whole situation has been transparent in how it's played out, and it will hurt them. Especially if RFK drops out & endorses Trump which is the latest rumour.

 

Not saying Kamala still can't win, but I don't think it's at all in the bag.

 

I don't buy that analysis. This one squarely falls into being a political nerd and over analyzing everything. 

 

Most normies don't care about any of that. Dem base itself wanted Biden gone and the party responded and did exactly what the base wanted. Same with independents. They want someone different and one party delivered.

 

You can say Dem was putting up a facade but ultimately the Dems responded like a competent and responsible party and did the right thing for both itself and their voters in course correcting with Biden. Voters respect a party that knows they made a mistake and corrected in the end just like you would a co-worker that corrected their mistake rather trying to bull doze their way through it. 

 

It is also hard to argue that Dem installed Harris when there is no opposition other than a brief flint of it from Manchine who isn't even a Democrat anymore. The whole party from Sanders and AOC to even Manchine united behind Harris in quick succession. That does not sound like Dems forcibly installed someone and frankly having Harris be the nominee is probably the furthest away from installing anyone as she was the natural successor to Biden by being his running mate not to mention people voted in this primary knowing full well that Harris was the 2nd in command and successor. Don't think that line of reasoning lands with anyone. 

 

End of the day, people like the results and when people like the result, the process hardly matters especially when there was no lose of life, injuries, or major property damage. 

 

Do you think the Bruins asked how they won the cup in 2011?

 

If what you said was true, you would see that effect already with independents. It is way more sensible to see an effect closer to the switch rather than two or three months down the road especially with our fast news cycle. 

 

What we do see is a surge of support among independents for Harris rather than a slide. 

 

High RFK Jr. support also plays into the idea that people want someone different than Biden and Trump. His support have now been trending downward or held steady at best since Harris came in. If your analysis is correct than we should be seeing an upward directory. 

 

Your analysis is mainly a right wing framing and pushed far more by the right then by the left or independents.

 

if anything, your last point from your previous post of people not liking her economic policies is more of a valid argument for pull back of her poll numbers. Debate performance too though that usually don't play much of a factor when you have somewhat comparable performances per studies. 

 

I support Bernie cause I want universal healthcare but I don't subscribe to the party cheated Bernie out of the nomination. End of the day, there was an election process and Bernie did not have majority support of the party base when it came down to it. If he had Obama level of support, he would have won no matter what the DNC tried to pull. Not surprising considering he was an outsider that somewhat tried to hijack the party. 

Edited August 21 by 24K

[King Heffy]

14 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Trump had actually already agreed to all 3, Harris had previously dodged questions about the 2nd & 3rd debates so it was unclear, but people on twitter today now claiming she officially denied the 2nd debate as you saw. 

 

Trump did do debates on CNN which is no better than MSNBC, I don't think he's as worried about it in all honesty. Though I don't blame Harris from a strategy stand-point.

 

CNN hasn't succesfully defended itself in court using the argument that no reasonable person takes them seriously.  Faux had.  Harris will have no problem destroying a mentally handicapped Nazi who is showing signs of insanity in a debate under any kind of civilized rule.

[24K]

2 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

Trump had actually already agreed to all 3, Harris had previously dodged questions about the 2nd & 3rd debates so it was unclear, but people on twitter today now claiming she officially denied the 2nd debate as you saw. 

 

Trump did do debates on CNN which is no better than MSNBC, I don't think he's as worried about it in all honesty. Though I don't blame Harris from a strategy stand-point.

 

You can't just unilaterally agree to something that require two parties. 

 

That is a disingenuous framing and you said on Twitter which means it was paroted by right wing influencers from Trump's post. You need a better source to make a pulled out or denied claim. Harris made it pretty clear she will discuss additional debates after then one on Sept 10th. You know six days after the debate Trump claim Harris pulled out from. 

 

Also msnbc is more to the left than cnn. Traditional centrist news are considered to be CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS.

 

If the right want to frame CNN as some sort of far left then that is on them. 

Edited August 21 by 24K

[NewbieCanuckFan]

7 hours ago, 24K said:

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

I think this is the problem for people like us that discuss politics. We get bogged down by all these minutias and policies when at end of the day election are pretty simple affair. 

 

Obama won based on his unmatched charisma and message of hope and change after the disastrous Bush presidency. 

 

Obama won again cause of Obama's unmatched charisma and things being pretty damn good in US at the time. 

 

Trump won cause most of the country despise Hillary's elitist attitude and her decades long baggage finally caught up to her.

 

Biden won cause of Trump and his disastrous response to covid.

 

This time, the overall theme is people are tired of Biden and Trump and want a fresh air. Trump was winning against Biden cause of Biden's age and Americans don't think he can survive for 4 more years. 

 

You know I live in ruby red Idaho and everyone I talked to that isn't maga have the same response before Biden dropped out. "I wish we had someone differnet and younger."

He barely beat a loathed candidate like Killery.  By extremely slim margins.  He had the 'benefit of the doubt' then (as he hadn't been in elected office then).   I don't see any remotely the same level is dislike to Harris (beyond the goose stepping faction of the GOP).  

Edited August 21 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Johngould21]

9 hours ago, Bob Long said:

 

No, just looking at the numbers. It is a fact tho that bernie supporters that later switched could have won the election for Hillary.

 

The Dems shafting of Bernie during the convention pissed many of them off too.

[Bob Long]

11 minutes ago, Johngould21 said:

The Dems shafting of Bernie during the convention pissed many of them off too.

 

If I were able to vote, it certainly would have been for Bernie. I would have been pretty annoyed too. I wouldn't have switched to trump but I get why the "change" voter would.

 

I really think had Hillary not insulted a big voting block things could be a lot different.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

8 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

If I were able to vote, it certainly would have been for Bernie. I would have been pretty annoyed too. I wouldn't have switched to trump but I get why the "change" voter would.

 

I really think had Hillary not insulted a big voting block things could be a lot different.

As well, Killery ran a HORRIBLE campaign.  Don't pay attention enough to the battleground states & took it for granted she'd carry enough of them.  

[Bob Long]

3 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

As well, Killery ran a HORRIBLE campaign.  Don't pay attention enough to the battleground states & took it for granted she'd carry enough of them.  

 

100%

 

I don't think Harris is going to make the same mistakes.

[bishopshodan]

10 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

If I were able to vote, it certainly would have been for Bernie. I would have been pretty annoyed too. I wouldn't have switched to trump but I get why the "change" voter would.

 

I really think had Hillary not insulted a big voting block things could be a lot different.

 

You know, the convo seemed to start when I referenced Susan Sarandon.

It was a little comment in a discussion with Sabre.

He implied the protestors were dem supporters.

I pointed out that since they were threatening to not vote for the dems (that they will abstain), if they dont address the Gaza situtation, then they arn't really dem supporters. And that it would be worse for them if Trump wins.

 

In this light, this is why i joked saying something like ' giving me Susan Sarandon flashbacks'

 

My point was...dont sit out pouting or even worse, vote repub, because the party you align with more has pissed you off. 

 

Some posters seemed to run with it, and try to teach you a lesson ( in a kinda rude way btw) about what they thought was being said.

When what was being said is similar to some of their own points!

 

 

[Satchmo]

8 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

One major thing I forgot to mention that leads me to that, is that I think more people are increasingly seeing the Democratic party as transparently corrupted/captured & dishonest. 

 

Seriously? I don't want to get into a debate on this but I think that's bollocks.   A certain segment of the population have felt that way since the last election 'was stolen' but I do not believe those numbers have grown much.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

11 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

100%

 

I don't think Harris is going to make the same mistakes.

That & Donnie looks/seems OLDER than his 78 years (Baconators diet aged him badly).  He doesn't have the same energy than in 2016.  And him largely staying his bunker so far isn't helping him. 

[bishopshodan]

4 minutes ago, Satchmo said:

Seriously? I don't want to get into a debate on this but I think that's bollocks.   A certain segment of the population have felt that way since the last election 'was stolen' but I do not believe those numbers have grown much.

 

i think one of Trumps strongest weapons is the idea that the dems ( gov) are corrupt. 

So easy to say, many think politicians are.

 

However, my counter point is... 'ok, so get a new leader. This one, Donny, is done. He is worse than those that he is clambering on about. If you are really concerned about draining the swamp, fine. But first prove that you are not in a cult, get rid of Don and provide a person that isnt so vile. Cause if you dont, then you're in a cult, and cult leaders arent democratic.'

[NewbieCanuckFan]

7 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

 

i think one of Trumps strongest weapons is the idea that the dems ( gov) are corrupt. 

So easy to say, many think politicians are.

 

However, my counter point is... 'ok, so get a new leader. This one, Donny, is done. He is worse than those that he is clambering on about. If you are really concerned about draining the swamp, fine. But first prove that you are not in a cult, get rid of Don and provide a person that isnt so vile. Cause if you dont, then you're in a cult, and cult leaders arent democratic.'

You mean "I plead the 5th four hundred times, multiple times convicted felon, lost civil case involving sexual assault isn't a paragon of virtue and integrity?"

[Bob Long]

28 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

 

You know, the convo seemed to start when I referenced Susan Sarandon.

It was a little comment in a discussion with Sabre.

He implied the protestors were dem supporters.

I pointed out that since they were threatening to not vote for the dems (that they will abstain), if they dont address the Gaza situtation, then they arn't really dem supporters. And that it would be worse for them if Trump wins.

 

In this light, this is why i joked saying something like ' giving me Susan Sarandon flashbacks'

 

My point was...dont sit out pouting or even worse, vote repub, because the party you align with more has pissed you off. 

 

yep, its just weird. I'm so mad I'll hurt the thing I say I care about. <shrugs>

 

28 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

Some posters seemed to run with it, and try to teach you a lesson ( in a kinda rude way btw) about what they thought was being said.

When what was being said is similar to some of their own points!

 

 

 

I thought I showed remarkable restraint, given you know, me. 

 

[Bob Long]

23 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

That & Donnie looks/seems OLDER than his 78 years (Baconators diet aged him badly).  He doesn't have the same energy than in 2016.  And him largely staying his bunker so far isn't helping him. 

 

he does look more defeated than I've seen before. It must have been such a kick in the nads to lose 6 years of Biden-bashing. His usual attacks haven't worked on Harris, AND the "weird" thing has done some damage back his way. He's reeling.