Popular Post PistolPete13 Posted August 22 Popular Post Share Posted August 22 3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: Speaking of polls. The most unbiased scientific poll has just been completed. The results are in!!! This poll is big. It's Bigly. It's probably the biggest poll ever done. Almost 6 million people voted!!! It's Yuuugggeeee.... 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentSam Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) 4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: I hate making predictions really. Sometime between October 2024 and Spring 2025? This market has been overvalued for a long time. Put it this way, if you sell now you may lose out on 5-10% gains in the next 6-12 months. That's your risk to selling. However, if you stay in the market and it crashes, your risk is 50-60% losses. That's the way I see it. To each his own though. I could be wrong. Or I could be right. I do have some history in making predictions though. Remember when I said they will do the switcheroo with Biden back in February? That was something that nobody else predicted. I knew it was coming though. How did I know? Can't tell you... you mean if Trump gets in ? that’s almost guaranteed if trump gets in . What the Dems have in the plate will keep it where it is. infrastructure / border / healthcare be more jobs added. and the longer the War goes on in UKraine , the military and tech industries will produce at a moderate to high level ,. With a level of tech that will carry over into other industries. Edited August 22 by SilentSam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistolPete13 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Tim Walz will be coming up soon. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Wait, baby's blood is working for Oprah. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 7 minutes ago, bishopshodan said: Wait, baby's blood is working for Oprah. Fuck, she looks good for 70. How do we go about getting some of that blood? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentSam Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 he might do better selling crack ,. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Oprah slayed 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentSam Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Free meals in jail !! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) 13 hours ago, Johngould21 said: The Dems shafting of Bernie during the convention pissed many of them off too. Bernie wasn’t even a democrat, he just didn’t have enough support and delegates. Any liberal that voted for Bernie in the primaries, but decided to vote for Trump in the general election, is a piece of shit. Without Bernie bros acting like babies and Russian interference, Hillary would have won. Edited August 22 by CBH1926 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) "It's an agenda nobody asked for..." Loved that line about Project 2025 Walz can give a speech Edited August 22 by bishopshodan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24K Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Well that was short compared to the rest of keynote speaker. Short but still effective. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Just now, 24K said: Well that was short compared to the rest of keynote speaker. Short but still effective. Pep talk from the coach 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 54 minutes ago, SilentSam said: Free meals in jail !! I'd honestly rather know how that same poll was doing in 2020 before the election. The polls themselves are going to be skewed and being able to compare the polls now with the polls back then that would help us give an understanding of what we might expect this coming election. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24K Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 21 minutes ago, The Lock said: I'd honestly rather know how that same poll was doing in 2020 before the election. The polls themselves are going to be skewed and being able to compare the polls now with the polls back then that would help us give an understanding of what we might expect this coming election. Just go look at 538 2020 polling aggregate and compare that with the election results. Honestly you shouldn't care about Maine polling as that is a safe blue state outside of the 2nd congressional district. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabrefan1 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 2 hours ago, 24K said: That is a 1.3 rated pollster by 538 so not the best pollster out there so that newsweek article is really cherry picking there.l not to mention this was a 3 week old poll back in Aug 8th. Anyways I give more leeway to articles quoting quality polls like ipsos. Either way you want to look at poll aggregate rather than individual polls. Looking at that, other than Wisconsin, it is pretty much a statistical tie in the battleground states. Yep that last part I've said here a bunch of times. Take the aggregate. The way that the media is handling this all, especially with the way that they are all cherry picking polls, it's starting to feel a bit like 2016 again. It's going to drive MAGA to hit the booths hard on election day, and cause left leaners that are angry at the war in Gaza to be comfortable enough to relax and sit at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 6 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said: Yep that last part I've said here a bunch of times. Take the aggregate. The way that the media is handling this all, especially with the way that they are all cherry picking polls, it's starting to feel a bit like 2016 again. It's going to drive MAGA to hit the booths hard on election day, and cause left leaners that are angry at the war in Gaza to be comfortable enough to relax and sit at home. I disagree. Trump is not an unknown entity anymore and people aren't going to turn to him as a protest vote. I'd say, it's the other way .........never trumper repugs will turn to Harris as a protest vote Trump has his loony tunes base and that's it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24K Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) 22 minutes ago, stawns said: I disagree. Trump is not an unknown entity anymore and people aren't going to turn to him as a protest vote. I'd say, it's the other way .........never trumper repugs will turn to Harris as a protest vote Trump has his loony tunes base and that's it I was going to say that till I took a look at 2020 polling. It actually underestimated Trump by 4 points. That said 2022 polling was fairly accurate so who knows if the pollsters finally fixed it. I will say only difference between Harris and Clintin as of now is people are enthusiastic to vote for Harris compared to Clinton in 2016 who really did not gave voters a reason to vote for her. It is less likely for someone to just not turn up with polls being up if they are energized to vote compared to 2016 where voters aren't really energized for Hillary and said F it she was gonna win anyways. Gaza thing is definitely a thorn in Harris camapign. They need to do the calculation fast to see whom they can ostracize more, Zionist or pro Palestinians. They have to choose at this point as it looks like they there is no longer a hole to thread the needle. Edited August 22 by 24K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said: Yep that last part I've said here a bunch of times. Take the aggregate. The way that the media is handling this all, especially with the way that they are all cherry picking polls, it's starting to feel a bit like 2016 again. It's going to drive MAGA to hit the booths hard on election day, and cause left leaners that are angry at the war in Gaza to be comfortable enough to relax and sit at home. Everyone wants to refer to 2016, but that's a bad comparison because it was unknown at the time how wonky the polls would be to the actual outcome. Voters haven't been blindsided much since. If anything, voters are more up in arms and divided. Because of this, our baseline is 2020. Those are the voters who turned out either to vote for Biden or vote against Trump, more likely the later. Then Trump calling election interference happened. Then Jan 6 happened. Then the documents issue happened. Then the criminal cases happened. Based on all of this, why would someone, who either voted for Biden or voted against Trump, suddenly want to vote for Trump? Not saying no one would do this at all, but there's unlikely going to be a lot of give with this. Mark my words. No matter what the polls say, no matter what cherry picking is done, if you think logically on it... Trump has very little chance so long as people are still up in arms and not complacent... and the only effect 2016 would have on now is making sure voters are NOT complacent. So you can say all you want about what may or may not happened, focus on 2016, focus on whatever else. The only voters to really worry about are the ones who didn't vote 2020... and I'm not all that worried about that as well. (Edited errors from needing to go to bed) Edited August 22 by The Lock 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Sabrefan1 said: Yep that last part I've said here a bunch of times. Take the aggregate. The way that the media is handling this all, especially with the way that they are all cherry picking polls, it's starting to feel a bit like 2016 again. It's going to drive MAGA to hit the booths hard on election day, and cause left leaners that are angry at the war in Gaza to be comfortable enough to relax and sit at home. They're going to do that anyways aren't they? Especially since their fearless leader has already proclaimed they have all the votes they need not that long ago. As for feeling like 2016 again, I don't see the Dems following a 'nickle defense' protecting a touchdown lead (course the Dems have been known to snatch defeats from the jaws of victory before so......). Roe vs Wade gives enough motivation I think for enough Independ. to select Harris. Key of course, is the Dems have to keep applying the pressure to election day. They've got a vast 'war chest'. Spend it wisely in close battleground states. Edited August 22 by NewbieCanuckFan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24K Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 2 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said: They're going to do that anyways aren't they? Especially since their fearless leader has already proclaimed they have all the votes they need not that long ago. As for feeling like 2016 again, I don't see the Dems following a 'nickle defense' protecting a touchdown lead (course the Dems have been known to snatch defeats from the jaws of victory before so......). Roe vs Wade gives enough motivation I think for enough Independ. to select Harris. Well this ain't your Obama, Clinton, or even Biden Democrats anymore. When they go low, we kick them in the balz is the new motto. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curmudgeon Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 1 minute ago, NewbieCanuckFan said: They're going to do that anyways aren't they? As for feeling like 2016 again, I don't see the Dems following a 'nickle defense' protecting a touchdown lead (course the Dems have been known to snatch defeats from the jaws of victory before so......). Roe vs Wade gives enough motivation I think for enough Independ. to select Harris. I have heard that Florida might be in play because abortion and marijuana are on the ballot, so a high turnout is expected. So to speak. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said: I have heard that Florida might be in play because abortion and marijuana are on the ballot, so a high turnout is expected. So to speak. Even if it isn't the Dems should campaign hard in the state to force Donnie to get off his fat ass & campaign there. Tire him out. Him sending Mr Couch-sex-man there isn't going to help as he's got even less charisma than Ron Santimonious. Edited August 22 by NewbieCanuckFan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 23 minutes ago, 24K said: I was going to say that till I took a look at 2020 polling. It actually underestimated Trump by 4 points. That said 2022 polling was fairly accurate so who knows if the pollsters finally fixed it. I will say only difference between Harris and Clintin as of now is people are enthusiastic to vote for Harris compared to Clinton in 2016 who really did not gave voters a reason to vote for her. It is less likely for someone to just not turn up with polls being up if they are energized to vote compared to 2016 where voters aren't really energized for Hillary and said F it she was gonna win anyways. Gaza thing is definitely a thorn in Harris camapign. They need to do the calculation fast to see whom they can ostracize more, Zionist or pro Palestinians. They have to choose at this point as it looks like they there is no longer a hole to thread the needle. No, the biggest difference is Donald Trump is a known entity, a felon and a sower of batshit crazy chaos. He has dragged the repugs under water since 2016 and he's going to finally sink them in nov 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 (edited) 12 minutes ago, stawns said: No, the biggest difference is Donald Trump is a known entity, a felon and a sower of batshit crazy chaos. He has dragged the repugs under water since 2016 and he's going to finally sink them in nov And Harris doesn't have the baggage that Hillary had (imho). And like it or not, HerrVonSh*tsHisPants was alot more energic in 2016 than now. Might be major factor on how effective he can campaign. Edited August 22 by NewbieCanuckFan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabrefan1 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 1 hour ago, stawns said: I disagree. Trump is not an unknown entity anymore and people aren't going to turn to him as a protest vote. I'd say, it's the other way .........never trumper repugs will turn to Harris as a protest vote Trump has his loony tunes base and that's it We'll know for sure in a little over 3 months. Even if I'm right, he better get his campaign in much better shape or he's gonna lose and the wolves will come out full force to tear him apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.