US Politics Thread

[stawns]

Just now, Bob Long said:

 

He uses them like a chew toy and they love it.

 

Harris has to kick his ass on Tuesday. It's not fair but imo the election is won or lost for her this week, barring some future thing no one saw coming.

 

 

I don't think so........debates don't generally move the needle much either way.  

[Bob Long]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

 

I don't think so........debates don't generally move the needle much either way.  

 

Did you see the last one 

[stawns]

6 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

Did you see the last one 

 

Thats the outlier and only because it confirmed Democrats fears.  Honestly, though he likely would have lost the election, Biden wouldn't have lost all that many voters when the chips were down.

[24K]

39 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

That's a favourability poll, not a state by state poll and that's what matters and I'd say Harris has the inside track to 270

It is a national poll not just a favorability poll. Yes not as useful as starting bybstate but rule of thumb is Dem have to be up 5% to squeeze out a win. 

 

This is the first major non paritisian poll that shows Trump leading. After.3 weeks.

 

No matter how you slice it, this is not good for Harris and kinda proved my concern she is running a bad camapign heavily relying on vibes rather than life changing policies that drive out enthusiasm and more importantly separate herself from Biden that is dragging her down. Hate to say it, Harris need to shove Biden under the bus at this point. 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

41 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

That's a favourability poll, not a state by state poll and that's what matters and I'd say Harris has the inside track to 270

As long as they campaign hard in all the battleground states & avoid using the Hillary playbook (don't take voters for granted).  I actually think all the close votes helps her as it removes the feeling of "why bother voting when the outcome is already decided?". Alot is at stake in this election.

[stawns]

6 minutes ago, 24K said:

It is a national poll not just a favorability poll. Yes not as useful as starting bybstate but rule of thumb is Dem have to be up 5% to squeeze out a win. 

 

This is the first major non paritisian poll that shows Trump leading. After.3 weeks.

 

No matter how you slice it, this is not good for Harris and kinda proved my concern she is running a bad camapign heavily relying on vibes rather than life changing policies that drive out enthusiasm and more importantly separate herself from Biden that is dragging her down. Hate to say it, Harris need to shove Biden under the bus at this point. 

 

I don't buy that stat.  The only thing that matters is electoral votes.  Further to that, I'd bet my first born that Harris gets at least 8 million more votes than Trump, nationally.  The last time a Republican won the popular vote was 20 years ago.

[stawns]

10 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

As long as they campaign hard in all the battleground states & avoid using the Hillary playbook (don't take voters for granted).  I actually think all the close votes helps her as it removes the feeling of "why bother voting when the outcome is already decided?". Alot is at stake in this election.

 

I don't think it's going to be as close as people think it is, personally.  I think Harris walks away with a pretty convincing victory.........with the potential to be a complete wipeout if she can flip one of Texas or Florida

[Curmudgeon]

1 hour ago, stawns said:

 

I don't think so........debates don't generally move the needle much either way.  

 

I agree. Harris voters won't change their minds, Trump voters won't change their minds, and the so-called undecideds will still be undecided because they like being special and getting all this attention from the cable networks. FWIW, if someone is still undecided, they haven't been paying attention or are still pondering whether it is better to be killed by a shark or electrocuted by batteries. 

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

1 minute ago, Curmudgeon said:

FWIW, if someone is still undecided, they haven't been paying attention or are still pondering whether it is better to be killed by a shark or electrocuted by batteries. 

 

Or maybe even

Spoiler

 

[King Heffy]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

 

For probably the first time in history there's a candidate (and former prez) who isnt overly smart and I think that's what appeals to his cult followers.......hrs probably the first politician they can understand and who speaks at around the same level as they do 

 

The irony is that he actually loathes the people who worship him

 Bush was stupid, but wasn't obviously mentally handicapped like Trump.

[Rip The Mesh]

26 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

 Bush was stupid, but wasn't obviously mentally handicapped like Trump.

I believe you!

[bishopshodan]

Wont even click on that.

 

Nobody told me to hate Trump. He brought that all on by himself.

 

All I had to do is watch one episode of the Apprentice to think he was a complete turd.

He was as appealing as Gordon Ramsay except fat and without any talent. 

 

I'm stunned people still like him and try to draw comparables to normal folk. 

Its like driving around in a Pinto and laughing at other cars. 

[The Lock]

4 hours ago, 24K said:

I am more worried about the new high quality nyt/Siena poll that shows Trump leading by 1% and voters trust him more on issues and he being thermostat moderate candidate. 

 

The whole US electorate is out of whack. 

 

If that number holds it will be a landslide for Trump as Dems need to be 5% up to barely squeeze it out thanks to ec. 

 

https://news.google.com/read/CBMimwFBVV95cUxQbnBucXpWSDluVkRkU0Y5cThmVHQ5X0lZeFdUS3BOMlhHS1RvTjhKblJEUkZOTzAyVk5zdnkySENHM1l5Nk9tNjRZSi1EbGhQN1RqVHRQTUdtdDN5RjUxUEh6Zmx4WW81VmZtV01BYU5NLVdhMXZXUkVLRmM1U19pU3VjdVRoeC1Ga3ZlU2otVjF4STlDYXJ3M0I1Yw?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

 

Remember that it's in the best interest of the media to have the polls going back and forth. Polls are adjustedy to take into account voters who won't take surveys, but that is highly unlikely to be entirely what polls are adjusted for. Of course, this is going to vary from polls trying to be as accurate as possible to polls with more... sinister motives.

 

So, honestly, I could have seen this coming a mile away. If the polls showed Harris continuing to "run away with it", media such as the NYT would get less views. The polls are likely to show back and forth the entire way to the election, especially with the polls run by media. Therefore, it's better to get an overall idea rather than just worry about 1 poll that's more designed to get you to click on their page rather than giving you an accurate poll.

 

Besides, what does "high quality" mean with a poll? There's still adjustments made no matter the "quality".

Edited September 8 by The Lock

[The Lock]

3 hours ago, Curmudgeon said:

 

I agree. Harris voters won't change their minds, Trump voters won't change their minds, and the so-called undecideds will still be undecided because they like being special and getting all this attention from the cable networks. FWIW, if someone is still undecided, they haven't been paying attention or are still pondering whether it is better to be killed by a shark or electrocuted by batteries. 

 

And to add to my post just above this, this quote is very much why I often think these polls are more "adjusted" to make things seem more tense to get the views. Anyone "on the fence" probably already knows who they are voting for.

[RupertKBD]

32 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

Wont even click on that.

 

Nobody told me to hate Trump. He brought that all on by himself.

 

All I had to do is watch one episode of the Apprentice to think he was a complete turd.

He was as appealing as Gordon Ramsay except fat and without any talent. 

 

I'm stunned people still like him and try to draw comparables to normal folk. 

Its like driving around in a Pinto and laughing at other cars. 

I never watched a single episode of the Apprentice.....I thought the fat bastard was a waste of skin since sometime around the turn of the century....

 

First there was the bragging about having the tallest building in Manhattan after the collapse of the Twin Towers......and his Islamophobic lie about "thousands of Muslims celebrating in New Jersey, after the towers came down.

 

He reinforced my distaste with his racist "birther" campaign against Obama and his characterization of immigrants from central America as "rapists"and "drug dealers".

[stawns]

8 minutes ago, RupertKBD said:

I never watched a single episode of the Apprentice.....I thought the fat bastard was a waste of skin since sometime around the turn of the century....

 

First there was the bragging about having the tallest building in Manhattan after the collapse of the Twin Towers......and his Islamophobic lie about "thousands of Muslims celebrating in New Jersey, after the towers came down.

 

He reinforced my distaste with his racist "birther" campaign against Obama and his characterization of immigrants from central America as "rapists"and "drug dealers".

 

Never watched it either and it was obvious he was a psychopath back in the 80's.  He's never not been a despicable human

[Gurn]

14 minutes ago, RupertKBD said:

I never watched a single episode of the Apprentice.....I thought the fat bastard was a waste of skin since sometime around the turn of the century....

 

First there was the bragging about having the tallest building in Manhattan after the collapse of the Twin Towers......and his Islamophobic lie about "thousands of Muslims celebrating in New Jersey, after the towers came down.

 

He reinforced my distaste with his racist "birther" campaign against Obama and his characterization of immigrants from central America as "rapists"and "drug dealers".

Also paid for adds calling for the death penalty to be re instated, for the Central Park 5

[Elias Pettersson]

This poll is big.  It’s Bigly. It might be the biggest poll yet…

 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

6 hours ago, stawns said:

 

I don't think so........debates don't generally move the needle much either way.  

Didn’t Joe literally drop out of the race because of the last debate?

[stawns]

3 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Didn’t Joe literally drop out of the race because of the last debate?

 

Again, last debate notwithstanding.  And, despite the immediate reaction by the left, he probably wouldn't have lost much support because of it 

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, King Heffy said:

 Bush was stupid, but wasn't obviously mentally handicapped like Trump.

Bush invaded a country over a lie and murdered hundreds of thousands of innocent people. You keep talking about sending people to GITMO. Bush should be the first person on your list. 

[bishopshodan]

10 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

This poll is big.  It’s Bigly. It might be the biggest poll yet…

 

I know you are a true bonafide centrist and you are only posting about Trump to show some balance in this extreme far-left radical echo chamber...

 

So I think you are the perfect, most unbiased, person to ask by far.

 

Do you think Trump is actually going to win?

[Bob Long]

20 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

This poll is big.  It’s Bigly. It might be the biggest poll yet…

 

 

 

Yep that electoral college is a mofo for the dems.

 

I know some disagree, but Tues imo is where Harris makes or breaks this.

 

Maybe Trump will be so full of uppers he'll step in it bigly. 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

13 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

 

I know you are a true bonafide centrist and you are only posting about Trump to show some balance in this extreme far-left radical echo chamber...

 

So I think you are the perfect, most unbiased, person to ask by far.

 

Do you think Trump is actually going to win?

You are probably the smartest poster on this forum. You can read me like nobody else really. The fact that I’ve said many times that Bush and Cheney should be at GITMO should tell you I’m not a war hawk. I even liked Clinton. I mean total respect for him getting some right in the Oval Office. If it was me l probably would have done the same thing. Too bad he is linked with Epstein. That might ruin his legacy. 
 

I predicted Trump was going to prison on September 18. Unfortunately, the judge didn’t have the balls to do it. And now it might never happen. If Kamala folds like a cheap tent on Tuesday in the debate then I can see Trump winning quite easily. Kamala is a weak candidate IMO. She never even got a single vote in the primary in 2020 and was the first candidate to drop out of the race. 
 

In order for Kamala to have a legit shot at winning, she needs to get out into the public and start a real campaign. She needs to do interviews on a weekly basis. Go on tv and tell your story. Show the people you can lead the country. This is exactly what Trump is doing. He is on the television almost every day. He’s obviously getting old and senile, but you have to give him credit for at least getting out there. Kamala can’t rely on Trump fucking up and looking stupid every day. She needs to be her own person and lead the charge. How many interviews has she done in the last 2 months?  One?  
 

There is still a lot that can happen between now and the election. But based on those latest polls it seems Trump has the advantage right now. 
 

Those are my thoughts. 

Edited September 8 by Elias Pettersson

[bishopshodan]

3 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

You are probably the smartest poster on this forum. You can read me like nobody else really. The fact that I’ve said many times that Bush and Cheney should be at GITMO should tell you I’m not a war hawk. I even liked Clinton. I mean total respect for him getting some right in the Oval Office. If it was me l probably would have done the same thing. Too bad he is linked with Epstein. That might ruin his legacy. 
 

I predicted Trump was going to prison on September 18. Unfortunately, the judge didn’t have the balls to do it. And now it might never happen. If Kamala folds like a cheap tent on Tuesday in the debate then I can see Trump winning quite easily. Kamala is a weak candidate IMO. She never even got a single vote in the primary in 2020 and was the first candidate to drop out of the race. 
 

In order for Kamala to have a legit shot at winning, she needs to get out into the public and start a real campaign. She needs to do interviews on a weekly basis. Go on tv and tell your story. Show the people you can lead the country. This is exactly what Trump is doing. He is on the television almost every day. He’s obviously getting old and senile, but you have to give him credit for at least getting out there. Kamala can’t rely on Trump fucking up and looking stupid every day. She needs to be her own person and lead the charge. How many interviews has she done in the last 2 months?  One?  
 

There is still a lot that can happen between now and the election. But based on those latest polls it seems Trump has the advantage right now. 
 

Those are my thoughts. 

 

Thank you for your completely honest, perfectly said, kind words.

 

So, in short, like without 3inch heels kinda short, you think Trump takes this?...with what you know today, not based on debate outcomes, as of today...your Kreskin abilities have Trump winning?