US Politics Thread

[stawns]

15 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

Yep that electoral college is a mofo for the dems.

 

I know some disagree, but Tues imo is where Harris makes or breaks this.

 

Maybe Trump will be so full of uppers he'll step in it bigly. 

 

 

That poll isnt even remotely reflected in other polls.  Harris is leading in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and it's razor thin in Georgia, Arizona and NC.  Even more surprising is Harris is within 5 points in Texas.

 

Harris has easier path to 270 than Trump does.  If she wins Penn, it's over.  Trump has to sweep the three rust belt swing states and not lose any of the repub leaning states like Georgia, NC or AZ.

Edited September 8 by stawns

[Elias Pettersson]

7 hours ago, stawns said:

 

How dare you disparage such a fine organization

 

 

Fuck, the Flintstones were my favourite cartoon of all time. I’ll never think of them the same way anymore. 

[Elias Pettersson]

14 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

 

Thank you for your completely honest, perfectly said, kind words.

 

So, in short, like without 3inch heels kinda short, you think Trump takes this?...with what you know today, not based on debate outcomes, as of today...your Kreskin abilities have Trump winning?

As of today, with the fact that Trump never went to prison, if I had to place a bet in Vegas, I would go with Trump winning the election. 
 

FYI, Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market. They currently have Trump at 51% and Kamala at 46%. So I would go with the odds if I had to put money on it. 
 

[stawns]

17 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

As of today, with the fact that Trump never went to prison, if I had to place a bet in Vegas, I would go with Trump winning the election. 
 

FYI, Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market. They currently have Trump at 51% and Kamala at 46%. So I would go with the odds if I had to put money on it. 
 

 

That goes against pretty much every legitimate pollster out there.  I'm not sure I put a lot of credence in a prediction from "poly market"

[Bob Long]

44 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

That poll isnt even remotely reflected in other polls.  Harris is leading in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and it's razor thin in Georgia, Arizona and NC.  Even more surprising is Harris is within 5 points in Texas.

 

Harris has easier path to 270 than Trump does.  If she wins Penn, it's over.  Trump has to sweep the three rust belt swing states and not lose any of the repub leaning states like Georgia, NC or AZ.

 

Isn't @Elias Pettersson quoting 538 there? I do believe that they are quite reputable. 

 

The EC does not work in the dem's favour, thats not news. They need to be 3-5% ahead in pollling to get over the hump.

 

Also, the number of people that said that they need to see more from Harris is still quite high, in the mid-20%'s.

 

Edited September 9 by Bob Long

[Elias Pettersson]

9 minutes ago, stawns said:

 

That goes against pretty much every legitimate pollster out there.  I'm not sure I put a lot of credence in a prediction from "poly market"

Nate Silver isn’t legit?

[Bob Long]

7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Nate Silver isn’t legit?

 

I bet you a coke that Harris knows who he is and the recent results, and is planning her debate strategy accoringly. It would be a real mistake for Harris to take any of the swing states for granted, which is what i think the polls are showing. Don't pull a Hillary. 

 

I know I've been droning about it, but Tues is key, she needs to target her message to the swing state folks, look tough but not like a bitch, be likable, not smile too much, etc etc. Trump can be his asshat self. 

 

Harris has a way harder job. 

 

Edited September 9 by Bob Long

[24K]

10 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

Isn't @Elias Pettersson quoting 538 there? I do believe that they are quite reputable. 

 

The EC does not work in the dem's favour, thats not news. They need to be 3-5% ahead in pollling to get over the hump.

 

Also, the number of people that said that they need to see more from Harris is still quite high, in the mid-20%'s.

 

538 fired Nate Silver like 2 or 3 years ago. He has nothing to do with 538 now. 

 

Nate Silver is essentially hired by poly market and Peter Theil and has a vested interest in Trump winning cause of the crypto bros. 

 

Remember polymarket is a crypto based betting market so it will lean towards Trump. I rather go look at predict it for actual betting action. 

[Bob Long]

12 minutes ago, 24K said:

538 fired Nate Silver like 2 or 3 years ago. He has nothing to do with 538 now. 

 

Nate Silver is essentially hired by poly market and Peter Theil and has a vested interest in Trump winning cause of the crypto bros. 

 

Remember polymarket is a crypto based betting market so it will lean towards Trump. I rather go look at predict it for actual betting action. 

 

Oh shit, I didn't know that, thank you.

[Rip The Mesh]

[Curmudgeon]

This thread is so schizoid. We hate polls. Polls are inaccurate. We love polls. Polls tell us our candidate is ahead. No, not those polls, our polls. But our polls are accurate and yours aren't. In 2020 the polls were right. In 2020 the polls were wrong. Pollsters are all working for Soros. Pollsters are all working for Peter Thiel. I use polls to tell me who to vote for. I don't use polls to decide how I'm going to vote. Yay polls. Boo polls. Lather, rinse, repeat.

[4petesake]

48 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Nate Silver isn’t legit?

 

That’s a good question now that he’s joined Polymarket. Doesn’t this give you pause at all? 

 

 

Some social media users have denounced his complaints as not based in math, especially as he makes similar adjustments to his data. Silver has adopted the FiveThirtyEight system of weighting polls differently, ostensibly based on reliability. He's  facing criticism for allegedly favoring junk polls over respected pollsters.

“Patriot Polling is literally run by two right wing high school students that is ranked 240th on FiveThirtyEight,” former pollster Adam Carlson noted on X, asking why that poll was weighted more highly than a YouGov poll, which they called “an internationally respected pollster that is ranked 4th on FiveThirtyEight.”

Some users believe that Silver’s methods of weighting polls are dubious, especially as his swing state calculated “polling averages” move in the opposite direction as recently released swing state polls.

 

 

 

[Satchmo]

52 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Nate Silver isn’t legit?

He's legit.  I read just the other day though that he and the big company he used to work for are saying the opposite of each other in the recent  polls they have done.

 

All we know is that it is close.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, 24K said:

538 fired Nate Silver like 2 or 3 years ago. He has nothing to do with 538 now. 

 

Nate Silver is essentially hired by poly market and Peter Theil and has a vested interest in Trump winning cause of the crypto bros. 

 

Remember polymarket is a crypto based betting market so it will lean towards Trump. I rather go look at predict it for actual betting action. 

Peter Theil has a vested interest in Trump. And every pollster who has Kamala ahead has a vested interest in Kamala. 
 

538 predicted that Hillary would win in a landslide. They got it wrong then. They also predicted Biden to win. They got it right then. So who’s to say what will happen this time around. 
 

Trump was supposed to go to prison on September 18. That never happened. So IMO it’s wide open now. Anything can happen. Those who think Kamala has it in the bag are kidding themselves. 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo]

12 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Peter Theil has a vested interest in Trump. And every pollster who has Kamala ahead has a vested interest in Kamala. 
 

538 predicted that Hillary would win in a landslide. They got it wrong then. They also predicted Biden to win. They got it right then. So who’s to say what will happen this time around. 
 

Trump was supposed to go to prison on September 18. That never happened. So IMO it’s wide open now. Anything can happen. Those who think Kamala has it in the bag are kidding themselves. 

You either have no idea who Peter Theil is, or you're being purposely disingenuous, if you think he is passively supporting Trump. Perhaps you should have a little look into Theil before pulling the both sides defense? For guys who love every little conspiracy that pops up in their twitter feed you should be all over this. Though, in your defense, this particular conspiracy probably doesn't pop up much on twitter, does it?

[Elias Pettersson]

55 minutes ago, JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo said:

You either have no idea who Peter Theil is, or you're being purposely disingenuous, if you think he is passively supporting Trump. Perhaps you should have a little look into Theil before pulling the both sides defense? For guys who love every little conspiracy that pops up in their twitter feed you should be all over this. Though, in your defense, this particular conspiracy probably doesn't pop up much on twitter, does it?

 

Not sure what you are getting at.  Are you saying Peter Theil isn’t supporting Trump?

Edited September 9 by Elias Pettersson

[Ghostsof1915]

9 hours ago, 24K said:

It is a national poll not just a favorability poll. Yes not as useful as starting bybstate but rule of thumb is Dem have to be up 5% to squeeze out a win. 

 

This is the first major non paritisian poll that shows Trump leading. After.3 weeks.

 

No matter how you slice it, this is not good for Harris and kinda proved my concern she is running a bad camapign heavily relying on vibes rather than life changing policies that drive out enthusiasm and more importantly separate herself from Biden that is dragging her down. Hate to say it, Harris need to shove Biden under the bus at this point. 

What life changing polices has Pumpkinhead offered? He just rambles on saying nothing, to the point where you can tell he didn't even listen to the question. 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo]

2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Not sure what you are getting at.  Are you saying Peter Theil isn’t supporting Trump?

Idk, it sounded like you were trying to downplay Theil's vested interest, with a little whataboutism, to add credibility to your prefered poll. I felt that it was pertinent to point out that Theil's involvement in the trump campaign is a lot more than just being an enthusiastic donor. He's gambled a lot in right wing politics for years, and on this campaign in particular, so he's got a lot to lose. 

 

Now that we're here, since you're claiming that "every pollster who has Kamala ahead" had a vested interest in her campaign as well, perhaps you could provide some examples? I could post some links to Theil's vested interests if you'd like?

[PistolPete13]

14 hours ago, 4petesake said:

 

What the hell, final offer…tarps off. 
 

 

How MAGA sees Trump

 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

12 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Nate Silver isn’t legit?

Tough to avoid the fact he's being paid by the GOP.

 

A smart post as it shows him attempting to gain the youth vote.  Harris  I don't think has responded to this.  This is the kind of populism that he should go towards instead of the whackjob stuff which he doesn't need to do since his base will vote for him even if he supported incest.

 

[24K]

12 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

What life changing polices has Pumpkinhead offered? He just rambles on saying nothing, to the point where you can tell he didn't even listen to the question. 

It doesn't matter what Trump propos3s, he ain't part of Biden administration and that looks like it is enough for the American electorate.

 

It is painfully obvious Americans want nothing to do with Biden and pretty much hates him for inflation. The best thing Harris can do is to drag Biden through the mud and distance herself completely from him. Pretty much should say Biden is too stubborn to listen to her. 

[Bob Long]

2 minutes ago, 24K said:

It doesn't matter what Trump propos3s, he ain't part of Biden administration and that looks like it is enough for the American electorate.

 

It is painfully obvious Americans want nothing to do with Biden and pretty much hates him for inflation. The best thing Harris can do is to drag Biden through the mud and distance herself completely from him. Pretty much should say Biden is too stubborn to listen to her. 

 

I don't really understand how kicking Joe while he's down will make Harris look like a better option. That kind of thing would turn me off as a voter.

[JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo]

2 hours ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Tough to avoid the fact he's being paid by the GOP.

 

A smart post as it shows him attempting to gain the youth vote.  Harris  I don't think has responded to this.  This is the kind of populism that he should go towards instead of the whackjob stuff which he doesn't need to do since his base will vote for him even if he supported incest.

 

Remember when the 3 supreme court justices he nominated said they wouldn't overturn roe vs wade because it was settled law? "Fool me twice....can't fool me again." 

[Bob Long]

1 minute ago, JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo said:

Remember when the 3 supreme court justices he nominated said they wouldn't overturn roe vs wade because it was settled law? "Fool me twice....can't fool me again." 

 

It was settled, until it wasn't. They all knew that there would be new challenges but at the time they were asked, they could lie like that because no new cases had been put forward.

 

Skippy is going to pull the same crap up here, only in our case it will be all new law.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

3 minutes ago, JoeyJoeJoeJr. Shabadoo said:

Remember when the 3 supreme court justices he nominated said they wouldn't overturn roe vs wade because it was settled law? "Fool me twice....can't fool me again." 

That's probably why he's flip flopped on that issue recently.