[Discussion] Canucks Contending Window Prediction -- 6 to 8 Years

[HKSR]

I think many of us agree that this year was the year that the window for this group has opened. 

 

With that being said, when you look back on JR's tenure with the Penguins, during the window of contention, he rarely ever drafted in the 1st round.  He kept adding and adding and adding to the group.

 

So my expectation is that we won't have many 1st round picks ahead of us.  That's ok though if we remain a contender for an extended period of time.

 

So how long do I think the window is open for?  I think it's open as long as Hughes and Petey are still competitive in this league... so at least 6 to 8 years.  Gives this group a LOT of time to mature and grow together.  I feel that the key age demographic we are looking for to add to this group are 24 to 27 year olds.  It puts them in the 30 to 35 year old range at the end of the window.

 

Hughes is 24

Petey is 25

Hronek 26

Boeser 27

 

Then there is the next wave of younger players that will be hitting their primes when the above group is getting older.  Our best shot at a Cup will be when these guys below are hitting their stride just as the above group is starting to decline but are still competitive (a la current day JT Miller) -- 6 years from now. 

 

Hoglander 23

Podkolzin 22

DPetey 20

Lekkerimaki 19

Willander 19

 

Yes, seems like a long time from now, but take a look at where the ages are in exactly 6 years:

 

Hughes 30

Petey 31

Hronek 32

Boeser 33

 

Hoglander 29

Podkolzin 28

DPetey 26

Lekkerimaki 25

Willander 25

 

IMO, this is when this Canucks group will be the elite of the elite in this league. 

 

Obviously we will probably lose a couple guys over the years due to cap constraints, but if we lock in Hronek and Boeser long term, and absolutely lock in Hughes when his contract comes due, we know we will have the 4 main core guys from this generation locked in for 8 years.

The key will be to identify the talent in that 2nd group early and lock them in so they are on good cap value deals through this contention window.

 

Anyways, that's what I picture on the horizon. 

 

Thoughts?

[Dr. Crossbar]

I'm confident in PA and JR in this regard. They are committed to winning. As far as management that knows how to build a winner without many 1sts, we're fortunate to have guys with experience and better, more precise decision-making. It's a best case scenario really. Especially compared the previous regime.

 

I think that's a fair gauge of our window if all goes well. Six years actually puts most of our core over 30+. The length of our window, imo, really depends on the success of our youth coming up behind our core. We need our prospects to succeed, hit, and stick if we're to usher in an extended period of winning.

 

I'd also add in Silovs at 23 as a good indicator as well. If all goes well with him, his window is just beginning and could last over a decade. We're solid in building from the net outward for our 2.0 window. 

 

 

[Coconuts]

I'd look at it more as Pettersson being 26 in November and Hughes being 25 in October, so 6-7 years is probably pretty accurate. 

 

I'm hoping Allvin does things differently, actually picking in the 1st round could help our window. JR's scenario with the Pens was a bit different, having future hall of famers in Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fluery already in house. JR has three years to go, assuming he's not back after that, hopefully Allvin takes on more going forward. 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Coconuts said:

I'd look at it more as Pettersson being 26 in November and Hughes being 25 in October, so 6-7 years is probably pretty accurate. 

 

I'm hoping Allvin does things differently, actually picking in the 1st round could help our window. JR's scenario with the Pens was a bit different, having future hall of famers in Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fluery already in house. JR has three years to go, assuming he's not back after that, hopefully Allvin takes on more going forward. 

Would certainly help to have 1 or 2 more top tier prospects in our pool.  In 6 years, those guys would be around 24yo (assuming they are 18 now).  There's also no guarantee guys like Willander or Lekkerimaki work out.  The odds are good, but not guaranteed. 

 

If we could land a mid to high 1st for Hronek (assuming we would have already signed a UFA replacement -- Pesce or Roy), then that could really help. 

[Coconuts]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Would certainly help to have 1 or 2 more top tier prospects in our pool.  In 6 years, those guys would be around 24yo (assuming they are 18 now).  There's also no guarantee guys like Willander or Lekkerimaki work out.  The odds are good, but not guaranteed. 

 

If we could land a mid to high 1st for Hronek (assuming we would have already signed a UFA replacement -- Pesce or Roy), then that could really help. 

 

I like the odds of Willander being a top 4D, anything more than that though, I dunno, here's hoping. I could see Lekkerimaki developing into a stud, a middle six player, or a bust, none of these would surprise me. Talented prospect though, absolutely. 

 

Would love to see us acquire a 1st somehow, having a barren stretch similar to the Pens would have things starting to look ugly as time goes on. Pens fans are fortunate they got their cups because they've likely got years of pain coming. 

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

I like the odds of Willander being a top 4D, anything more than that though, I dunno, here's hoping. I could see Lekkerimaki developing into a stud, a middle six player, or a bust, none of these would surprise me. Talented prospect though, absolutely. 

 

Would love to see us acquire a 1st somehow, having a barren stretch similar to the Pens would have things starting to look ugly as time goes on. Pens fans are fortunate they got their cups because they've likely got years of pain coming. 

Lekkerimaki is boom or bust IMO.  He'd be an odd middle 6 guy without size or a strong defensive game.  I forgot about Raty who I could see being a solid NHLer one way or another.  He could be as good as a 2C if he hits his ceiling... or else he'd be a solid bottom 6 guy. 

 

The only way I'd say a 1st coming our way is Hronek being moved out.  Which I can only see if we land a top RHD in the UFA market. 

 

Pens are gonna ride Crosby, Malkin, and Letang into the sunset... then it'll be a lot of pain for a long time.

[Hairy Kneel]

I would keep DeSmith as low cost insurance.

[Coconuts]

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Lekkerimaki is boom or bust IMO.  He'd be an odd middle 6 guy without size or a strong defensive game.  I forgot about Raty who I could see being a solid NHLer one way or another.  He could be as good as a 2C if he hits his ceiling... or else he'd be a solid bottom 6 guy. 

 

The only way I'd say a 1st coming our way is Hronek being moved out.  Which I can only see if we land a top RHD in the UFA market. 

 

Pens are gonna ride Crosby, Malkin, and Letang into the sunset... then it'll be a lot of pain for a long time.

 

I think he could end up being a complimentary middle six producer, but that'd place a lot of emphasis on him actually producing. I think Raty's got a good shot at being a bottom 6 player, I'd be surprised if he amounts to more though. 

 

It'd be risky to move him prior to the draft without a sure thing coming back, but you never know. It really depends on what the Canucks are willing to stomach in terms of a deal though. 

 

Tampa's probably going to suffer the same way despite Point and Kucherov still being prime aged, they're going to pay for the success they've had and I think the slide has already begun. If not for Kucherov having an absolute monster of a year they probably don't make the playoffs this season, he drug them there. 

[HKSR]

7 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

I think he could end up being a complimentary middle six producer, but that'd place a lot of emphasis on him actually producing. I think Raty's got a good shot at being a bottom 6 player, I'd be surprised if he amounts to more though. 

 

It'd be risky to move him prior to the draft without a sure thing coming back, but you never know. It really depends on what the Canucks are willing to stomach in terms of a deal though. 

 

Tampa's probably going to suffer the same way despite Point and Kucherov still being prime aged, they're going to pay for the success they've had and I think the slide has already begun. If not for Kucherov having an absolute monster of a year they probably don't make the playoffs this season, he drug them there. 

I'd actually prefer moving Hronek for a 20 or 21 year old prospect.  This draft is all over the place.  I wouldn't feel comfortable picking a magic bean from this draft class for Hronek.  If Hronek has to be moved (which I prefer not to), I think it'd be best to wait until after the UFA market opens up, but before player arbitration election hits.  So the window between July 1st to July 5th.  It would mean we will know if we land any of the top RHD available.  If we land one, then we don't need top dollar back for Hronek.

 

In regards to TBL, I think it depends a lot on whether they'd be willing to unload guys in the coming years to rebuild.  PIT decided not to, so they'll pay the price as we did with the Sedins. 

 

Edited June 6 by HKSR

[Jaimito]

Window is 3-4 yrs. They are building around QH's contract. 

 

Don't think JR is not going wait that long (6-8 yrs).  

Edited June 6 by Jaimito

[timberz21]

Too much intangibles in hockey in general to say that their window is open 6-8 years.  Realistically, I'd say they have a solid 2-3 year window, that can be extended depending on multiple factors.  Cap management : one bad signing could handcuff the team, Did Hughes and EP peaked already or are they making their final ascent to reach that ceiling, how will the prospect develop to support them.  If no one steps up in the pipeline, we won't be able to field a contending team via free agency unless we bat 1.000 with our signings.

 

[Coconuts]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

I'd actually prefer moving Hronek for a 20 or 21 year old prospect.  This draft is all over the place.  I wouldn't feel comfortable picking a magic bean from this draft class for Hronek.  If Hronek has to be moved (which I prefer not to), I think it'd be best to wait until after the UFA market opens up, but before player arbitration election hits.  So the window between July 1st to July 5th.  It would mean we will know if we land any of the top RHD available.  If we land one, then we don't need top dollar back for Hronek.

 

In regards to TBL, I think it depends a lot on whether they'd be willing to unload guys in the coming years to rebuild.  PIT decided not to, so they'll pay the price as we did with the Sedins. 

 

 

Depends on the pick they can get back imo, there are some very good prospects who'd be available in the top 12 for example. But yeah, I see the appeal of getting a known quantity. 

 

Hard to say what Tampa does, Point's locked in long-term with a NMC and it's hard to see Kucherov ever playing for anyone else. Hagel and Cirelli are moveable though, Sergacev and Cernak too at some point too, if Tampa really begins to stink sooner than later. Vasi, Stamkos, Kucherov, and Hedman probably all retire Bolts though imo. I do really think they find a way to get Stamkos done. 

[HKSR]

29 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

Depends on the pick they can get back imo, there are some very good prospects who'd be available in the top 12 for example. But yeah, I see the appeal of getting a known quantity. 

 

Hard to say what Tampa does, Point's locked in long-term with a NMC and it's hard to see Kucherov ever playing for anyone else. Hagel and Cirelli are moveable though, Sergacev and Cernak too at some point too, if Tampa really begins to stink sooner than later. Vasi, Stamkos, Kucherov, and Hedman probably all retire Bolts though imo. I do really think they find a way to get Stamkos done. 

Yeah I think Stamkos remains a Lightning. 

 

Looking at the ages of their guys, I think they still have a few more years of competitive hockey left as a group.

 

Point is 28

Hagel is 25

Cirelli is 26

Sergachev is 25

Cernak is 27

 

Even the older guys still got some time...

 

Vasi is 29

Kucherov is 30

 

Problem is they have pretty much nothing in the pipeline.  Kucherov will likely play out this contract.  Same with Vasi.  They have no 1st or 2nd this year or next year.  I suspect by 2026 they will start to look at retooling and drafting as much as possible.

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah I think Stamkos remains a Lightning. 

 

Looking at the ages of their guys, I think they still have a few more years of competitive hockey left as a group.

 

Point is 28

Hagel is 25

Cirelli is 26

Sergachev is 25

Cernak is 27

 

Even the older guys still got some time...

 

Vasi is 29

Kucherov is 30

 

Problem is they have pretty much nothing in the pipeline.  Kucherov will likely play out this contract.  Same with Vasi.  They have no 1st or 2nd this year or next year.  I suspect by 2026 they will start to look at retooling and drafting as much as possible.

 

Competitive, sure, but I do think they'll be on the gradual downslide. If they adjust their strategy and accept that their days of clear cut contention are done they may be able to avoid Pittsburgh's fate, but they'll have to change how they approach drafting and picks. 

 

They can compete in the present, but they should really be looking to the future going forward. 

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Coconuts said:

 

Competitive, sure, but I do think they'll be on the gradual downslide. If they adjust their strategy and accept that their days of clear cut contention are done they may be able to avoid Pittsburgh's fate, but they'll have to change how they approach drafting and picks. 

 

They can compete in the present, but they should really be looking to the future going forward. 

I'm sure they will.  That top group of younger core guys probably have 4 to 5 years of competitive hockey left in them.  If they start drafting in the 1st round consistently in 2 years, they'll probably have a new wave of young talent coming in as that older group ages out.  If they trade their 2026 1st round pick, then I think that's a mistake.

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, Jaimito said:

Window is 3-4 yrs. They are building around QH's contract. 

 

Don't think JR is not going wait that long (6-8 yrs).  

Yep.  And then a re-tool or lull with either waiting for QHs/Demko's deals to level out, or trading one (or both), don't see a Miller in the system.  

 

See two possible "window's", the one they are in right now, and another one down the road, likely with some lull inbetween, If they can manage to make it one long one, that would be fantastic.     

Edited June 7 by IBatch

[BC_Hawk]

8 hours ago, Coconuts said:

I'd look at it more as Pettersson being 26 in November and Hughes being 25 in October, so 6-7 years is probably pretty accurate. 

 

I'm hoping Allvin does things differently, actually picking in the 1st round could help our window. JR's scenario with the Pens was a bit different, having future hall of famers in Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fluery already in house. JR has three years to go, assuming he's not back after that, hopefully Allvin takes on more going forward. 

I agree; long term continuity is built through the draft. Having said that, I’m not concerned about trading some 1st in the next couple years to get our house in order. So far, I think they have drafted well, and developed some great bottom 6 type players out of nothing.

[BC_Hawk]

8 hours ago, HKSR said:

Would certainly help to have 1 or 2 more top tier prospects in our pool.  In 6 years, those guys would be around 24yo (assuming they are 18 now).  There's also no guarantee guys like Willander or Lekkerimaki work out.  The odds are good, but not guaranteed. 

 

If we could land a mid to high 1st for Hronek (assuming we would have already signed a UFA replacement -- Pesce or Roy), then that could really help. 

Then we need the prospect we obtained to work out just to have a top pair RHD; trading for magic beans. 

[BC_Hawk]

8 hours ago, Jaimito said:

Window is 3-4 yrs. They are building around QH's contract. 

 

Don't think JR is not going wait that long (6-8 yrs).  

Plan and window are 2 different things. I agree though, 3-4 years is the target, but long term continuity is the goal.

[CanuckMan]

I would hope the Canucks don’t throw away draft picks for quick solutions. We have a good 4-5 years for sure ahead of us. Would like to have first three round draft picks every year for at least the next 2-3 years. We need to improve our drafting. Only way to be successful in this league long term. The more we miss on our picks the less likely this core is to get things done.

[filthy animal]

Im tempering my expectations on whether our window has opened or it might be just a blip. This coming season will determine that if this team is for real. Theres going to big names like Hronek, Boeser on what they do this season which will determine if this season is going to be legit. Nobody expected us this past season, they will now.

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, filthy animal said:

Im tempering my expectations on whether our window has opened or it might be just a blip. This coming season will determine that if this team is for real. Theres going to big names like Hronek, Boeser on what they do this season which will determine if this season is going to be legit. Nobody expected us this past season, they will now.

There were signs, the Bruce bump, and even though we couldn't keep a 1-3 goal lead, we did have a lot of them the year after, with very mediocre at best goaltending (and EP joining Miller in the 99-101 point club).  

 

The team was close.   Our D was obviously not good enough, and wasn't for close to a decade.    Almost the entire Edler Tanev pairing days (not their fault they couldn't  make it work).    Trading Horvat and then winning down the stretch with QHs, Myers and an AHL defense ... the signs were there.   Let's say some of us did, not many outside of this fanbase believed it.   And on  them expecting us now.   They've been "expecting us" since December.    We gained some respect and teams like TB and CAR both expected it and said we were legit post game.     

 

We won't be able to keep all the guys.   We didn't have Lindholm for a lot of the year.   And he was nursing an injury.    Zadarov is a must have.   Joshua will sting to lose, because we lacked one more big body upfront as it was.    Don't see any reason why we couldn't repeat last year IF they again put the work in this off-season.    And bring back most of the same band.   If they have 3-4 years to work on their craft together, they should get better as a team.    Miller's level isn't sustainable past 3-4 years.    A lot of guys peaking right now and last year together.   Doesn't happen like that often.    To me it's a much bigger change than Lekkermaki and Willander will provide, right away anyways.   Those guys are also part of the puzzle,  every year someone else is due for their legacy deal or so it seems, EP, Lindholm, Zadarov, Joshua this year, then Brock, Garland, Demko, QHs, and we will need cheaper options and core succession planning. 

Edited June 7 by IBatch

[DrJockitch]

This season was a sugar rush. We brought in some vets, burned a bunch of pics, to try to win back the fans but it wasn’t sustainable. Was always going to be a 1-2 year mini window. 
‘Once we hit OEL’s big bump we will be paying EP, Hronek and JTM’s big contracts and coming up to QH’s next deal and need to be figuring out if we can continue to bet on Demko’s health. 
This will likely be when we see Lekk, Willander maybe Raty, EP2 coming in out of necessity for cheap ELC contracts and we will be too inexperienced to really be contending for a few years. 
‘With PA though who knows. His regular day seems to be making something out of nothing. 

[IBatch]

27 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

This season was a sugar rush. We brought in some vets, burned a bunch of pics, to try to win back the fans but it wasn’t sustainable. Was always going to be a 1-2 year mini window. 
‘Once we hit OEL’s big bump we will be paying EP, Hronek and JTM’s big contracts and coming up to QH’s next deal and need to be figuring out if we can continue to bet on Demko’s health. 
This will likely be when we see Lekk, Willander maybe Raty, EP2 coming in out of necessity for cheap ELC contracts and we will be too inexperienced to really be contending for a few years. 
‘With PA though who knows. His regular day seems to be making something out of nothing. 

Hronek, QHs, Demko, Brock, Miller, Hogs, Joshua...Garland, a lot of guys had career years or close to it.    Myers rebounded and became one solid reliable defensive defenseman.   Less choas.   
 

Seems like Allvin has a herculean job ahead of him, but do believe they know who's core, who's not and will plan around that.     To me having both Miller and EP peaking at the same time would pay massive dividends.   Took the Sedins a lot of cracks at the post season before they figured it out.   We can't afford that with EP.    Miller and Brock,  that's not something to waste.     Don't mind it at all if Allvin keeps the pedal down and uses our futures for the medium and short term.    This teams cap window is this year (done) and next season.    Then it's going to hurt a lot.   Willander and Lekkermaki might get a few games this year.     Lekkermaki, if he's the real deal and can play with EP out of the gate, our  window gets much stronger now  and just maybe we can avoid trading away Brock or Demko or even QHs down the road. 

[LaBamba]

I worry that they’re going to do what they did in Pittsburgh. Swing hard and ravage the prospect pool to stay afloat. We have already done significant damage to get here. Now we don’t have the talent within to supplement our UFA Graduates.