Canadian Politics Thread

[Bob Long]

13 minutes ago, Gurn said:

1- create a problem that doesn't exist

2-make up bull carp numbers to support the 'victimhood'

3- create a 'solution' to a problem that didn't exist

4 distract attention from actual problems

 

5- win?

 

the best part is, if you win this way, you aren't responsible for anything.

 

The CPP thing is interesting. PP clearly has the polling to show most Albertans were looking for a slightly saner conservative take on it, so he undercut Smith. That part is particularly interesting to me, PP doesn't think he needs her to win AB and he's correct. 

 

[Optimist Prime]

I think he is also calculating that she will not be a long tenured Premier. I am surprised she won the leadership at all, and then double surprised Alberta returned the Cons to power with her at the helm. I don't see her being the premier after the next Alberta Provincial Election, likely he doesn't either. 

[Maninthebox]

1 hour ago, Optimist Prime said:

I think he is also calculating that she will not be a long tenured Premier. I am surprised she won the leadership at all, and then double surprised Alberta returned the Cons to power with her at the helm. I don't see her being the premier after the next Alberta Provincial Election, likely he doesn't either. 

 

Had Notley stepped down or been replaced the NDP likely would have won. Smith herself wasn't particularly relevant. The NDP have a decent amount of support out here, but not with Notley at the helm. 

[Boudrias]

2 hours ago, Optimist Prime said:

I think he is also calculating that she will not be a long tenured Premier. I am surprised she won the leadership at all, and then double surprised Alberta returned the Cons to power with her at the helm. I don't see her being the premier after the next Alberta Provincial Election, likely he doesn't either. 

I wouldn't count on Smith being defeated. The oil patch is juicing out cash again. Many seem to think the CPP is fully funded but I do not. Albertans are starting to realize that demographics are working against them as older Canadians in other provinces empty out CPP. A recent Fraser Institute study shows that Albertans can get the same CPP benefits and pay about $2300 per year less in premiums. Am I going to believe Fraser or Christia Freidland? 

[Optimist Prime]

16 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I wouldn't count on Smith being defeated. The oil patch is juicing out cash again. Many seem to think the CPP is fully funded but I do not. Albertans are starting to realize that demographics are working against them as older Canadians in other provinces empty out CPP. A recent Fraser Institute study shows that Albertans can get the same CPP benefits and pay about $2300 per year less in premiums. Am I going to believe Fraser or Christia Freidland? 

I admire the history of the Fraser Institute, it is worth noting however that they have swerved to the right in recent history with analytics provided by former Reformers and retired Conservative politicians. One fella I like is their Ontario Vice Chair, a fiscal conservative and VP of Morgan Stanley but also founded one of my favourite charities True Patriot Love Foundation. They funded a buddy of mine who hopped off a Bison overseas and landed in a ditch to pee and subsequently blew his leg off on a landmine to get to the Musical Ride and take a horse back riding camp with the Mounties in addition to extensive therapy with horseback riding ever since. They fund folks who go to the Invictus Games and many other veterans positive initiatives. My wife has provided painted army helmets to them which are auctioned off at a Gala in Toronto every year and to date those artistic pieces have raised over 20 million for the funding of this charity (my wifes contribution is just one or two helmets a year of dozens).  I have found that the Fraser Institute itself skews right for at least 15 years now though. 

[The Arrogant Worms]

In the spirit of fairness.....

 

 

[Northern_Nuck]

18 hours ago, Boudrias said:

I wouldn't count on Smith being defeated. The oil patch is juicing out cash again. Many seem to think the CPP is fully funded but I do not. Albertans are starting to realize that demographics are working against them as older Canadians in other provinces empty out CPP. A recent Fraser Institute study shows that Albertans can get the same CPP benefits and pay about $2300 per year less in premiums. Am I going to believe Fraser or Christia Freidland? 

Albertans get F’d so bad. They have to equalize the failures that are Quebec and the maritimes then on top of that they contribute 53% of the cpp so that the rest of us freeloaders just benefit. 
 

 If Alberta was to successfully separate, I could see a mass flow of tradespeople and anyone who is useful making a mass migration there. 

[Bob Long]

3 minutes ago, Northern_Nuck said:

Albertans get F’d so bad. They have to equalize the failures that are Quebec and the maritimes then on top of that they contribute 53% of the cpp so that the rest of us freeloaders just benefit. 
 

 If Alberta was to successfully separate, I could see a mass flow of tradespeople and anyone who is useful making a mass migration there. 

 

You don't know how equalization or the CPP works if you think your first or second sentence is true.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Bob Long

[Northern_Nuck]

4 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

You don't know how equalization or the CPP works if you think your first or second sentence is true.

Ahhh yes spoken like a true modern liberal, afraid of losing undeserved handouts. Carry on. 

[Boudrias]

9 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

You don't know how equalization or the CPP works if you think your first or second sentence is true.

Understanding the theory behind CPP and Equalization is one thing. Having faith that these schemes will ultimately compensate Albertans is another. One has to accept that CPP is fully funded and will remain so as Albertans age to the point of actually collecting it. Discussion of the demographic for Alberta and Canada as a whole might be worthwhile. 

 

Equalization is a grand scheme to provide all Canadians with equal opportunity to achieve economic success and security. What is the reality? The net net of it all is that after what 50 years Alberta continues to provide the cash and the east consumes it. Albertans resent that and I don't blame them. 

[Bob Long]

18 minutes ago, Northern_Nuck said:

Ahhh yes spoken like a true modern liberal, afraid of losing undeserved handouts. Carry on. 

 

if thats all you have, I can understand why you'd think like you do. 

[Bob Long]

6 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Understanding the theory behind CPP and Equalization is one thing. Having faith that these schemes will ultimately compensate Albertans is another. One has to accept that CPP is fully funded and will remain so as Albertans age to the point of actually collecting it. Discussion of the demographic for Alberta and Canada as a whole might be worthwhile. 

 

Equalization is a grand scheme to provide all Canadians with equal opportunity to achieve economic success and security. What is the reality? The net net of it all is that after what 50 years Alberta continues to provide the cash and the east consumes it. Albertans resent that and I don't blame them. 

 

But here's the problem B, and you know this. "Alberta" doesn't do anything as an entity for equalization or CPP. It's from individual taxation. Everyone is equal in Canada from the pov that whatever salary you make, you pay the same CPP. Its independent of your province. For a defined benefit pension plan that follows a person thats pretty important. It doesn't matter where someone decides to retire e.g., you get your CPP. 

 

Poilievre has essentially admitted Smith is off her rocker on her pension idea. He knows 1) it would never happen the way she says, and 2) how damaging it would be to him personally if he were a conservative PM.

 

As far as equalization goes, its the same thing, individual taxation. Saskatchewan was a consumer of equalization for decades so no It hasn't all gone east all the time. 

 

Harper could have amended the formula, but he didn't. He did change the health transfer formula though to give Albertans 4 billion more per year that way. If Equalization was fundamentally unfair, Harper would have adjusted it too. 

 

The problem with the discussion is its couched in terms of a province doing something. Its individuals. Until we can talk about it properly it will just be more comments like @Northern_Nuck just made which takes us nowhere. 

 

[Gurn]

When Albertans see the real math, they will ticked with Smith.

Dumb idea by her and her 'handlers'- could cost them the next election.

[Boudrias]

35 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

But here's the problem B, and you know this. "Alberta" doesn't do anything as an entity for equalization or CPP. It's from individual taxation. Everyone is equal in Canada from the pov that whatever salary you make, you pay the same CPP. Its independent of your province. For a defined benefit pension plan that follows a person thats pretty important. It doesn't matter where someone decides to retire e.g., you get your CPP. 

 

Poilievre has essentially admitted Smith is off her rocker on her pension idea. He knows 1) it would never happen the way she says, and 2) how damaging it would be to him personally if he were a conservative PM.

 

As far as equalization goes, its the same thing, individual taxation. Saskatchewan was a consumer of equalization for decades so no It hasn't all gone east all the time. 

 

Harper could have amended the formula, but he didn't. He did change the health transfer formula though to give Albertans 4 billion more per year that way. If Equalization was fundamentally unfair, Harper would have adjusted it too h. 

 

The problem with the discussion is its couched in terms of a province doing something. Its individuals. Until we can talk about it properly it will just be more comments like @Northern_Nuck just made which takes us nowhere. 

 

BC is a very popular place for all Canadians to retire. Out of province Canadians come to BC to enjoy their Golden Years. They come and consume the health infrastructure that British Columbians primarily paid for. In the real world doesn't that require some calculation?

 

Canadian life is not a zero sum game no matter what eastern Canada wants us to believe. "Smith is off her rocker on her pension idea". Yet there is no question that Quebec can run their own pension plan without the same critic. Why didn't Harper question Equalization? Probably for the same reason that PP is not. They both wanted majority governments. They count on the idea that westerners will continue to support the CPC no matter what. The flex vote in Canadian politics is in the east. Harper criticized the federal slush funds know as Diversification Funds and was roundly pilloried. 

 

The bottom line is that Albertans have put over a trillion $'s into equalization. They have funded CPP to the tune of excess 50% of CPP ACB. This transfer of wealth can be cloaked however it works but it won't fool Albertans forever. Albertans will never come close to receiving what they have contributed. In return they are attacked by their federal government and mocked by their fellow Canadians.   

[the destroyer of worlds]

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

BC is a very popular place for all Canadians to retire. Out of province Canadians come to BC to enjoy their Golden Years. They come and consume the health infrastructure that British Columbians primarily paid for. In the real world doesn't that require some calculation?

 

Canadian life is not a zero sum game no matter what eastern Canada wants us to believe. "Smith is off her rocker on her pension idea". Yet there is no question that Quebec can run their own pension plan without the same critic. Why didn't Harper question Equalization? Probably for the same reason that PP is not. They both wanted majority governments. They count on the idea that westerners will continue to support the CPC no matter what. The flex vote in Canadian politics is in the east. Harper criticized the federal slush funds know as Diversification Funds and was roundly pilloried. 

 

The bottom line is that Albertans have put over a trillion $'s into equalization. They have funded CPP to the tune of excess 50% of CPP ACB. This transfer of wealth can be cloaked however it works but it won't fool Albertans forever. Albertans will never come close to receiving what they have contributed. In return they are attacked by their federal government and mocked by their fellow Canadians.   

I'm going to stop you right here.  Quebec never participated in the CPP.  When the CPP created in 1965, provinces were allowed to start their own, comparable plan.  That is what Quebec did.  That is a huge difference.

 

The criticisms of the Smith plan is legit, because there are tons of Albertans who have been contributing to the CPP and some who collect their benefits.  It is THEIR benefits.  Not the Alberta Government's.  If Alberta wants to start their own, then they start from scratch.  If any Albertans want to roll their CPP contributions that they already have paid into the APP, then it should be up to them to do it.  After a certain point, enrollment would obviously be mandatory. 

 

Again, the money paid into CPP by Albertans is not the Alberta Government's money.  It should be up to the individual Albertan whether their money stays in the CPP or gets transferred into the newly created APP.  PERIOD.

[Boudrias]

20 minutes ago, the destroyer of worlds said:

I'm going to stop you right here.  Quebec never participated in the CPP.  When the CPP created in 1965, provinces were allowed to start their own, comparable plan.  That is what Quebec did.  That is a huge difference.

 

The criticisms of the Smith plan is legit, because there are tons of Albertans who have been contributing to the CPP and some who collect their benefits.  It is THEIR benefits.  Not the Alberta Government's.  If Alberta wants to start their own, then they start from scratch.  If any Albertans want to roll their CPP contributions that they already have paid into the APP, then it should be up to them to do it.  After a certain point, enrollment would obviously be mandatory. 

 

Again, the money paid into CPP by Albertans is not the Alberta Government's money.  It should be up to the individual Albertan whether their money stays in the CPP or gets transferred into the newly created APP.  PERIOD.

If the situation was as you describe then why was the legislation put in place that allows provinces to leave? I did not suggest that Quebec ever belonged to CPP. My point was that they run their own program. This appears acceptable to most yet Alberta doing the same is not. The legislation states that Alberta can leave and take their share of the CPP when they do. Not start from scratch. I believe the legislation says they can take their contributions plus the return that CPP has earned during their participation. 

 

Whatever decision is made will reside with Albertans. No it is not the Alberta Government's money, no argument. The elected government of Alberta represents the interests of Albertans. The province has been canvassing Albertans at the local level to get their input. If the provincial government decides to move forward it will require a vote, either on the specific subject or in a provincial election with a Alberta pension plan as a major plank. 

 

While I sympathize with Albertans  I haven't decided how I feel about their going it alone. Obviously there is much efficiency and therefore cost savings built into a national scheme. The value I see in this discussion is putting real numbers on paper and thereby educating Canadians about a vital social program. Ultimately it will be Albertans decision.  

[Gurn]

5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Alberta can leave and take their share of the CPP

Maybe- but they can't take more than their share-which is what the claim of 'half of the fund" is- way more than their share.

Smith is doing the big 'upsell' with faulty numbers.

[4petesake]

32 minutes ago, Gurn said:

Maybe- but they can't take more than their share-which is what the claim of 'half of the fund" is- way more than their share.

Smith is doing the big 'upsell' with faulty numbers.

This is the issue. Smith, formerly a proponent of town hall meetings, has asked Albertans to pre-register for a telephone “pubic survey”  which focuses on how an APP (with totally unrealistic numbers) should be set up rather than asking Albertans if they want to leave CPP in the first place. Imagine if Ontario left the plan first. APP supporters would see how CPP should be divvied up much differently than they do now. 

 

On the topic of equalization payments- they are not paid by Alberta  or any provincial government, they are paid by Canadian taxpayers.  They are intended to provide reasonably comparable levels of public services at similar levels of taxation across the country. Complaining that Alberta subsidizes other provinces is no different than wealthy Calgarians complaining that their tax dollars are funding services in poorer rural areas in Alberta. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by 4petesake

[the destroyer of worlds]

42 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

If the situation was as you describe then why was the legislation put in place that allows provinces to leave? I did not suggest that Quebec ever belonged to CPP. My point was that they run their own program. This appears acceptable to most yet Alberta doing the same is not. The legislation states that Alberta can leave and take their share of the CPP when they do. Not start from scratch. I believe the legislation says they can take their contributions plus the return that CPP has earned during their participation. 

 

Whatever decision is made will reside with Albertans. No it is not the Alberta Government's money, no argument. The elected government of Alberta represents the interests of Albertans. The province has been canvassing Albertans at the local level to get their input. If the provincial government decides to move forward it will require a vote, either on the specific subject or in a provincial election with a Alberta pension plan as a major plank. 

 

While I sympathize with Albertans  I haven't decided how I feel about their going it alone. Obviously there is much efficiency and therefore cost savings built into a national scheme. The value I see in this discussion is putting real numbers on paper and thereby educating Canadians about a vital social program. Ultimately it will be Albertans decision.  

If you're a worker who is in their late 40's, who have been contributing to CPP since your late teens, it should be up to you whether your CPP contributions stay with the national plan, or get rolled into the APP.  Not the Alberta Government.  Hell, it should be up to you whether you wish to continue to contribute to the CPP or start with the APP.  In no way should Alberta automatically get all of the CPP money that Albertans have contributed to the CPP, if any.  

 

This is the problem with leaving the national plan.  It isn't clear cut.  And there are going to be a lot of workers who will want their CPP benefits to stay with the CPP who also voted for Premier Moron.  

 

This 100% should be a referendum issue.  They should be 100% up front with exactly what the plan is.  They shouldn't be allowed to tell lies like the Brexit campaign did in the UK.  But I have a feeling that Premier Moron and her ilk will not he 100% honest here.  They've already spun a doozy with the 53% claim.

[Boudrias]

6 minutes ago, Gurn said:

Maybe- but they can't take more than their share-which is what the claim of 'half of the fund" is- way more than their share.

Smith is doing the big 'upsell' with faulty numbers.

That will be the nub of it. Legislation says contributions plus whatever CPP has generated in returns is what is owed to Albertans. What is Alberta's share? This is why I favor seeing a distillation of the hard numbers. I am sure various pundits, politicians and otherwise will chirp away. Let's see some real numbers. How much money goes in each year, who contributes it and how much goes out. How will demographics come into play over the next 20 years? Can CPP meet it's obligations 10 - 15 years out? We are regularly told that CPP can meet future obligations. When that is stated we are not told the anticipated returns needed to make that assumption true. Is a 5% return enough? Will it require a 8% return? 

 

Budget Canada says revenue this year will be $437.3 billion. The interest charge on this debt is $34.5 billion or 8% of the budget. Next year forecast is interest of $44 billion or 10% of budget. Canadian government debt is $1.45 trillion. What is incredibly scary is that the consolidated debt of the federal, provincial and municipal governments is $2.94 trillion. This does not include debt of crown corps or loans secured by government. 

 

When the sh*t hits the fan, and it will, all these numbers will become incredibly important. So when CPP says it's solvent then I would ask what do you think they would say? No? It is like Enbridge that pays out 123% of its earnings and tells stockholders that not only will they continue to pay their dividend but will increase it! 

Perhaps they will but logic says no. In 2008 we saw a crisis in confidence in the world financial system. Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan, the world's largest bank said we came within a hair of financial implosion. To many people treat finance in a cavalier manner. For those of us who heard our parents talk about the Depression it makes us worry. 

[Gurn]

7 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Legislation says contributions plus whatever CPP has generated in returns is what is owed to Albertans.

Is that federal legislation, you are referring to?

And even still, no way does Alberta get more than half.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/442337/canada-employment-level-by-province/

 

3 provinces have more people working than Alberta- take away Quebec, as they have their own plan.

leaves 

Ontario and B.C. with 4.43 times more employed people than Alberta.

 

Smith and her  people are trying to claim that Alberta puts in more money than 2 provinces with 4.43 times their  working population.

But she is even sillier than that; because if you add the other provinces  to the numbers it gets to

 

Alberta claiming they put more in than

5.45 times the other provinces put together- and that still leaves out the territories.

 

The counter point, of how Albertans make more and thus put in more, is blunted by the fact that CPP has contributions maxxed at $66,000.

If you make more than that, you don't pay premiums on that extra income.

 

Smith is selling snake oil, and some people are going to fall for it.

 

 

[Bob Long]

4 hours ago, Boudrias said:

BC is a very popular place for all Canadians to retire. Out of province Canadians come to BC to enjoy their Golden Years. They come and consume the health infrastructure that British Columbians primarily paid for. In the real world doesn't that require some calculation?

 

Canadian life is not a zero sum game no matter what eastern Canada wants us to believe. "Smith is off her rocker on her pension idea". Yet there is no question that Quebec can run their own pension plan without the same critic. Why didn't Harper question Equalization? Probably for the same reason that PP is not. They both wanted majority governments. They count on the idea that westerners will continue to support the CPC no matter what. The flex vote in Canadian politics is in the east. Harper criticized the federal slush funds know as Diversification Funds and was roundly pilloried. 

 

The bottom line is that Albertans have put over a trillion $'s into equalization. They have funded CPP to the tune of excess 50% of CPP ACB. This transfer of wealth can be cloaked however it works but it won't fool Albertans forever. Albertans will never come close to receiving what they have contributed. In return they are attacked by their federal government and mocked by their fellow Canadians.   

 

But you are wrong on the CPP. No one can keep you from your defined benefit. The idea that Albertans won't get it is just hyperbolic.

 

It's also just not true that Alberta is owed half of CPP assets. Good luck on that one.

 

Harper took a ton of heat from Ontario on the recalculation of the health transfer system. He would have changed equalization if it made sense.

 

I think a lot of your reasoning comes from emotion tbh. The idea of western alienation is toxic imo. Western people are not victims. That belief leads to a lot of faulty thinking.

[4petesake]

13 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

But you are wrong on the CPP. No one can keep you from your defined benefit. The idea that Albertans won't get it is just hyperbolic.

 

It's also just not true that Alberta is owed half of CPP assets. Good luck on that one.

 

Harper took a ton of heat from Ontario on the recalculation of the health transfer system. He would have changed equalization if it made sense.

 

I think a lot of your reasoning comes from emotion tbh. The idea of western alienation is toxic imo. Western people are not victims. That belief leads to a lot of faulty thinking.

 

Smith and the UCP are doing their best to get the people of Alberta to think of themselves as Albertans first and foremost rather than Canadians. I was born in BC and spent the majority of my life here but I have always thought of myself as Canadian, never British Columbian.

[Maninthebox]

51 minutes ago, 4petesake said:

 

Smith and the UCP are doing their best to get the people of Alberta to think of themselves as Albertans first and foremost rather than Canadians. I was born in BC and spent the majority of my life here but I have always thought of myself as Canadian, never British Columbian.

 

Why? Other than stereotypes, what does 'being Canadian' mean?

 

I agree with your point about Smith. I tend to look at this APP endeavor as a litmus test for full separation, a feeling out process essentially. Somewhat akin to making sure you grab your toothbrush and favorite Van Halen shirt before breaking up with an obsessive girlfriend.

[Bob Long]

53 minutes ago, 4petesake said:

 

Smith and the UCP are doing their best to get the people of Alberta to think of themselves as Albertans first and foremost rather than Canadians. I was born in BC and spent the majority of my life here but I have always thought of myself as Canadian, never British Columbian.

 

It's part of the victim complex they've created. I mean look at it objectively: highest salaries per capita, lowest taxes, good government services. 

 

And yet they act like something has been taken from them. It's really toxic.