Canadian Politics Thread

[Bob Long]

2 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

Anyone seen anything about this Edmonton Terrorist Attack?

 

Apparently he was carrying a gun & molotov cocktails, and was subdued by someone unarmed (god bless that guy). There was a grade 1 class in the building doing a tour, very scary. Fortunately no casualties or anything. (- all according to this global report)

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/10244633/edmonton-city-hall-lockdown-january/

 

 

If you click the link there's raw footage of the shooter. Very strange. Doesn't seem to know how to handle a gun, then drops it & walks out of the frame. 

 

Very curious to hear his motive but most importantly glad everyone is safe. The unarmed guy who subdued him is a hero.

 

Sounds like some serious issues with him, had some kind of "manifestos" and YouTube rants. Global said something about him using a Persian language.

[Wiggums]

"Oh Canada"

 

[RupertKBD]

9 hours ago, Miss Korea said:

@Bob Long should we start a fight

 

 

Can't remember the guy's name, but I really like that logo....

[Boudrias]

5 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I agree that *major corporations aren't going to reduce prices (so long as they are viable in not doing so, which doesn't seem like a problem in our country). But that isn't a sufficient reason to not stop the bleeding in anyway possible. Affordability has only been going in 1 direction under the current suto-progressives (though the global economy certainly plays a role too, tbf).

 

I have no illusion that there's a check coming when PP in office. We will continue to be stolen from at gunpoint under the Cons aswell.

 

 

I completely agree with alot of what you've said here, maybe I misread you, my apologizes.

 

Though regarding the bolded; I don't think the NDP has any answers either, Singh has been Trudeau's bitch for years & has completely driven his party (and its legacy) into the gutter in the process - with seemingly no concern on his part. So we're left with no great options.

 

And I agree with you on corporations increasing prices to collect the tax cuts (ala Carbon tax). If this is inevitability as you say (I don't disagree) then the answer to me isn't to progressively raise taxes & continually give them that leeway. Not saying it necessarily solves the problem in the short-term, but again, perhaps you atleast stop the bleeding in the long-term.

 

As far as our tax dollars going towards Canadian companies, I don't hate it but you can't add more taxes - your just passing that burden onto citizens. If were talking about cutting spending to other areas (which is kinda what PP is proposing) then I agree, I'm in favour of theoretically strengthening Canadian production. 

 

But then again, that idea is very Trumpian (unnacceptable in Canada), and also means more Canadian pollution, which will mean an additional cost under a carbon tax. So these factors all intersect. 

 

If we think Canada has problems right now then what happens in the event of an inevitable debt crisis? Current combined government debt is $2.942 trillion in a $2 trillion GDP. Of the total debt 29% is owed to foreigners. Cost of carrying our federal debt this year is est at $46.5 billion and will grow to $60.7 billion by 2028-29. This year's deficit est is $40 billion. Clearly this cannot continue. Canada is faced with a deteriorating fiscal capability. 

 

As bad as the Canadian situation is the USA is in worse shape from a government debt perspective. Their consumer debt is in better shape. I mention the USA because it is the world's largest economy and the conduit that settles world commerce. Most people realize that commerce and the promises that governments make is largely based on CONFIDENCE. The debt crisis of 2008 was a clear example of when confidence fails. When debt has no buyers our system collapses. It happened in 2008 and only thru the intervention of the USA Fed was a global collapse averted. The Americans are currently attempting to roll over their debt and the demand for their bonds is not strong. What happens when foreigners can no longer afford to buy USA debt? 

 

This is all very important to Canada as we have off loaded so much of our national responsibilities to the Americans. Defense and trade are obvious examples. Both GOP and DNC administrations have consistently sacrificed Canadian concerns to their own internal politics. If Trump is re-elected we should be very concerned. If he wants he can throw Canada into a depression. Wouldn't that be a nice political ploy that he can show his American voters? At one point I thought Canada could use energy exports as a way to chart a different path from the USA. I don't think so anymore. We are in for tough times. 

[Optimist Prime]

23 hours ago, bishopshodan said:

Wonder how many will vote NDP.

 

I know soo many folk that want a change but are having a very hard time looking at PP.

They see him similar to Trump and are tired of the negativity. He would do well to change his tune while he has people looking for options.

 

Canada rules. Best country on the planet. Deserves a champ at the helm... we dont need a little, whiny, angry, PP. Would be pretty embarrassing

 

 

 

my guess is roughly 16% of the national vote will go to the NDP, possibly as low as 13%. Folks are not yet polarizing to either end of the spectrrum, that is Cons or Dippers. Folks are still polarizing between Cons and Libs. If it looks like P.P. will win, and right now it seems to point that way, less people will vote NDP outside their traditional winning ridings (like Vancouver Island for instance as an NDP stronghold)

 

With

17.5% of the vote in 2006, 

18.2% of the vote in 2008,

30.6% of the vote in 2011, (Monopoly Man's Big Day: Jack Layton's Orange Wave)

19.7% of the vote in 2015

16% of the vote in 2019,

17.8% of the vote in 2021

 

Taking away the Orange Wave year, the NDP have typically enjoyed between 16% and 19.7%. Noteworthy is that the two highest percentage of the vote were on either side of the orange wave year leads me to suggest support outside of the Jack Layton experience is between 16% and 17.8%, seeing as there is no orange wave indicators at all this cycle. I believe there fore the max vote the NDP will achieve will be around 16% due to polarization between the two parties who will form government and hold the PM seat. I should add that young Canadians seem to be lining up behind the Conservative Party and not the NDP as their preferred new government. 
If that polarization is exacerbated the share for the NDP could dwindle to a dozen percentage points. If a complete disaster occurs, possibly single digit support but I find that as unlikely as reaching 20%.

[Optimist Prime]

^ thinking about that post of mine above: I wonder what result would be the end of Mr Dhaliwal's term as head of the NDP federally? I mean Singh. Not sure why he changed his name for politics, but I suspect it is cuz a Dhaliwal isn't likely to be elected in Vancouver again anytime soon. 

 

Currently the NDP has 25 seats, but what if they lose one in Alberta, one in Manitoba, 2 in BC and 3 in Ontario, maybe even Nunavut?

coming back from the next election with less than current seats or even below 20 seats, would that be the end of Mr Singh?
Worst case scenario although I think it highly unlikely would be to have less than 12 seats and not even reach official party status in the House. 

The irrelevant Greens know how powerless that is. Surely a disastrous result will lead to a leadership change for the NDP, but I am really curious if there are no new seats for them, do the long knives come out for their leader?

[bishopshodan]

9 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

^ thinking about that post of mine above: I wonder what result would be the end of Mr Dhaliwal's term as head of the NDP federally? I mean Singh. Not sure why he changed his name for politics, but I suspect it is cuz a Dhaliwal isn't likely to be elected in Vancouver again anytime soon. 

 

Currently the NDP has 25 seats, but what if they lose one in Alberta, one in Manitoba, 2 in BC and 3 in Ontario, maybe even Nunavut?

coming back from the next election with less than current seats or even below 20 seats, would that be the end of Mr Singh?
Worst case scenario although I think it highly unlikely would be to have less than 12 seats and not even reach official party status in the House. 

The irrelevant Greens know how powerless that is. Surely a disastrous result will lead to a leadership change for the NDP, but I am really curious if there are no new seats for them, do the long knives come out for their leader?

I'm a bit surprised at the bleak outlook you paint for the NDP. I feel there are many that cant vote Lib again, as they are tired of JT, however would never vote Con. But I know you have a lot of experience and smarts about it, so I am listening.

 

What metrics have you seen that show young voters getting behind the Cons, as you mentioned in your other post?

 

I ask because I saw a map from one of the US elections that showed gen Z voting blue in every state. It lead me to believe that the youth are leaning left....but is that not so?

[aGENT]

19 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

 

Sadly, as is so often the case, there is nobody to vote for. I can't imagine voting for PP, but voting for the NDP is also repugnant, and Trudeau doesn't deserve another term. What's left, another protest vote for the Greens, who have no chance of forming a government?

 

I hear ya... Bunch of turd sandwiches. But as Rupert says below, vote for the platform, policies and local representative that you support. The only people actually voting for Justin, live in Papineau. They're just the faces of the party, not the party itself.

 

18 hours ago, bishopshodan said:

 

I havent heard much about that Daniel Blaikie guy lately but I remember him having some solid housing ideas...

 

You know anything about him? would he be an ok choice one day?

 

Love that guy but they're not going to have a guy from Manitoba as leader unfortunately. I wonder if Cullen's kids are getting old enough for him to reconsider. He's probably the closest we have to a Layton clone.

 

17 hours ago, RupertKBD said:

 

As much as it pains me to think of a Pierre Pollievre government, I generally vote for the guy in my riding who best represents my position. Take Justin, Jag and Pierre out of the equation. They're only the figureheads anyway....

 

Bingo.

 

7 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I agree that *major corporations aren't going to reduce prices (so long as they are viable in not doing so, which doesn't seem like a problem in our country). But that isn't a sufficient reason to not stop the bleeding in anyway possible. Affordability has only been going in 1 direction under the current suto-progressives (though the global economy certainly plays a role too, tbf).

 

I have no illusion that there's a check coming when PP in office. We will continue to be stolen from at gunpoint under the Cons aswell.

 

 

I completely agree with alot of what you've said here, maybe I misread you, my apologizes.

 

Though regarding the bolded; I don't think the NDP has any answers either, Singh has been Trudeau's bitch for years & has completely driven his party (and its legacy) into the gutter in the process - with seemingly no concern on his part. So we're left with no great options.

 

And I agree with you on corporations increasing prices to collect the tax cuts (ala Carbon tax). If this is inevitability as you say (I don't disagree) then the answer to me isn't to progressively raise taxes & continually give them that leeway. Not saying it necessarily solves the problem in the short-term, but again, perhaps you atleast stop the bleeding in the long-term.

 

As far as our tax dollars going towards Canadian companies, I don't hate it but you can't add more taxes - your just passing that burden onto citizens. If were talking about cutting spending to other areas (which is kinda what PP is proposing) then I agree, I'm in favour of theoretically strengthening Canadian production. 

 

But then again, that idea is very Trumpian (unnacceptable in Canada), and also means more Canadian pollution, which will mean an additional cost under a carbon tax. So these factors all intersect. 

 

 

The role of things like the carbon tax should be to influence buying habits to achieve goals. Whether that be too support Canadian industry/business over foreign, and/or to even the playing field on the costs of renewables vs carbon intensive industries/products. Ideally those goals overlap.

 

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

If we think Canada has problems right now then what happens in the event of an inevitable debt crisis? Current combined government debt is $2.942 trillion in a $2 trillion GDP. Of the total debt 29% is owed to foreigners. Cost of carrying our federal debt this year is est at $46.5 billion and will grow to $60.7 billion by 2028-29. This year's deficit est is $40 billion. Clearly this cannot continue. Canada is faced with a deteriorating fiscal capability. 

 

As bad as the Canadian situation is the USA is in worse shape from a government debt perspective. Their consumer debt is in better shape. I mention the USA because it is the world's largest economy and the conduit that settles world commerce. Most people realize that commerce and the promises that governments make is largely based on CONFIDENCE. The debt crisis of 2008 was a clear example of when confidence fails. When debt has no buyers our system collapses. It happened in 2008 and only thru the intervention of the USA Fed was a global collapse averted. The Americans are currently attempting to roll over their debt and the demand for their bonds is not strong. What happens when foreigners can no longer afford to buy USA debt? 

 

This is all very important to Canada as we have off loaded so much of our national responsibilities to the Americans. Defense and trade are obvious examples. Both GOP and DNC administrations have consistently sacrificed Canadian concerns to their own internal politics. If Trump is re-elected we should be very concerned. If he wants he can throw Canada into a depression. Wouldn't that be a nice political ploy that he can show his American voters? At one point I thought Canada could use energy exports as a way to chart a different path from the USA. I don't think so anymore. We are in for tough times. 

 

We need to pay people more, whether that's unions, legislation or otherwise. Pay people more and they'll be able to pay down more of their own debt, and pay more taxes so the country can pay down it's debt.

[Miss Korea]

2 hours ago, RupertKBD said:

 

Can't remember the guy's name, but I really like that logo....

Quinn Hughes

[Optimist Prime]

1 hour ago, bishopshodan said:

I'm a bit surprised at the bleak outlook you paint for the NDP. I feel there are many that cant vote Lib again, as they are tired of JT, however would never vote Con. But I know you have a lot of experience and smarts about it, so I am listening.

 

What metrics have you seen that show young voters getting behind the Cons, as you mentioned in your other post?

 

I ask because I saw a map from one of the US elections that showed gen Z voting blue in every state. It lead me to believe that the youth are leaning left....but is that not so?

I feel like american Democrats are Canadian Progressive Conservatives. So youth leaning blue in the USA would in my mind at least equate to what I said about youth leaning towards Poilievre. I don't consider P.P. to be progressive but in broad general strokes. AOC would be closer to NDP here, imo. Biden closer to Progressive Conservative. Many folks don't pay attention to the nuance and only see orange...red....blue here. In any event I get email synopsis of weekly polling across the country broken down by province, age and sex. it is behind a pay wall. 

 

edit: had to go open it up and manipulate the chart to isolate say 18-29 year old voters coast to coast: 39% con, 25% NDP, 21% Liberal. However the younger the age demogrphic the less sticky their voting intentions. Just one month ago it was 35% Con, 31% Lib and 22% NDP in the same cohort. 

 

Four months ago in the 30-39 bracket coast to coast: 38% CON, 26% Lib, 19% NDP....today it is 43% Con, 29% NDP, 17% Lib. again a volitile age bracket.

 

60+ three months ago: 36% Liberal, 28% Con, 17% NDP. this is the bracket that is the most sticky in its voting intentions AND the most likely to show up and vote. Today: 37% Con, 33% Lib, 14% NDP.

 

so there is three examples with both todays and a few months ago takes on the cohorts intentions. You can see why rumours of Trudeau's demise are greatly exaggerated. First of all, the Cons have only had a lead for a handful of  months, and they are giddy about it, but the breakdowns paint a different story, right now I don't think the Cons would have a majority of seats: and it is the Member of Parliament who elect our Prime Minister: so whoever has the 50% plus 1 support of elected MP's will be PM. I don't see Pierre Poilievre having confidence outside his own party. For him to be PM it will have to be a majority government or bust. 

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, bishopshodan said:

I'm a bit surprised at the bleak outlook you paint for the NDP. I feel there are many that cant vote Lib again, as they are tired of JT, however would never vote Con. But I know you have a lot of experience and smarts about it, so I am listening.

 

What metrics have you seen that show young voters getting behind the Cons, as you mentioned in your other post?

 

I ask because I saw a map from one of the US elections that showed gen Z voting blue in every state. It lead me to believe that the youth are leaning left....but is that not so?

 

A lot of young, men especially, are being drawn towards right wing populism unfortunately. 

 

 

Edited January 28 by aGENT

[bishopshodan]

Just now, aGENT said:

 

A lot of young, men especially, are being drawn towards right wing populism unfortunately. 

I have 10 nephews and none of them are leaning that way. 2 are younger than 16yrs though, so they dont count.

One nephew-in-law is though.... he's an ex-logger and has worked in Alberta.... he's all about the divide and anger. 

 

Anyway, my fam is not a good sample probably. Almost all the adult 'kids' are in Uni and are busy planning their future. In fact one has graduated and works at a development company. He praises the BC NDP for their efforts around housing etc..

[Bob Long]

16 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

I have 10 nephews and none of them are leaning that way. 2 are younger than 16yrs though, so they dont count.

One nephew-in-law is though.... he's an ex-logger and has worked in Alberta.... he's all about the divide and anger. 

 

Anyway, my fam is not a good sample probably. Almost all the adult 'kids' are in Uni and are busy planning their future. In fact one has graduated and works at a development company. He praises the BC NDP for their efforts around housing etc..

 

The island is NDP heaven, not sure we can use it to project to the rest of Canada.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, bishopshodan said:

I have 10 nephews and none of them are leaning that way. 2 are younger than 16yrs though, so they dont count.

One nephew-in-law is though.... he's an ex-logger and has worked in Alberta.... he's all about the divide and anger. 

 

Anyway, my fam is not a good sample probably. Almost all the adult 'kids' are in Uni and are busy planning their future. In fact one has graduated and works at a development company. He praises the BC NDP for their efforts around housing etc..

 

Yeah we're trying to raise our two boys as caring, empathetic humans, and that we have a responsibility as individuals in a (functioning) society to contribute to the greater good and not always put yourself first, and above all else. It's literally the entire point of living in an organized society.

 

But not everyone is. And as one of those empathetic people, I somewhat get it. I think we can largely all agree the game is rigged, and seems to be getting increasingly rigged as we move forward here. So I get how some would lean towards "F you, I got/need to get mine" in what is a gamed system. And the right wing populists are doing an expert job of appealing to their emotion and anger about it all, with charismatic, colourful leaders and advocates. Throw a pandemic, wars, increasing climate events etc in to the already immense issue of an aging population all wreaking havoc on economies, affordability etc and it's all a recipe for disaster.

 

And unfortunately, that same angry, me first, F the "other"  line of short term, emotional thinking is exactly what causes these problems in the first place. It's a feedback loop.

 

I have no idea how we counter it.

[Optimist Prime]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

 

I hear ya... Bunch of turd sandwiches. But as Rupert says below, vote for the platform, policies and local representative that you support. The only people actually voting for Justin, live in Papineau. They're just the faces of the party, not the party itself.

 

 

Love that guy but they're not going to have a guy from Manitoba as leader unfortunately. I wonder if Cullen's kids are getting old enough for him to reconsider. He's probably the closest we have to a Layton clone.

 

 

Bingo.

 

 

The role of things like the carbon tax should be to influence buying habits to achieve goals. Whether that be too support Canadian industry/business over foreign, and/or to even the playing field on the costs of renewables vs carbon intensive industries/products. Ideally those goals overlap.

 

 

We need to pay people more, whether that's unions, legislation or otherwise. Pay people more and they'll be able to pay down more of their own debt, and pay more taxes so the country can pay down it's debt.

Cullen from northwest BC? If i recall he had a lot of support but fell short vs singh. (might be inaccurate, from memory)

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

Cullen from northwest BC? If i recall he had a lot of support but fell short vs singh. (might be inaccurate, from memory)

 

Yup.

 

Fell short of support against Mulcair, whom the party thought would appeal better to the larger Eastern/Quebec populations (even though he was an ass hat).

 

Between probably feeling a bit slighted there, and citing family reasons (young kids) he withdrew from future leadership bids.

 

Edited January 28 by aGENT

[Optimist Prime]

14 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

The island is NDP heaven, not sure we can use it to project to the rest of Canada.

I am excited that Maja Tait, the Mayor of Sooke, will be the NDP candidate replacing retiring popular MP Randall Garrison for the Esquimalt, Saanich, Sooke riding. 

She almost agreed to be our Liberal Candidate in the last election cycle, but maybe she was being polite with me. hehe. I worked on her re-elections as Mayor and supported her first run where she won it, and she later went on to Chair the BC Council of Mayors. Regardless of party affiliation she will be an amazing representative for the people of her riding. I have since moved out of that riding but I wish her well. She should win it handily. 

 

the last time that riding was anything other than NDP was Dr Keith Martin, elected in 1993, who left the Conservative benches when the Canadian Alliance(reform)  merged with the PC party create basically the modern Cons. He joined the Liberal Party and held the seat until Randall Garrison took it in 2011. Prior to Keith Martin the riding was NDP with Dave Barrett. I don't see it flipping away from the NDP next cycle. 

[bishopshodan]

30 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

The island is NDP heaven, not sure we can use it to project to the rest of Canada.

4 of my nephews are West Van ( British Properties) boys. 

They dont talk too much politics but I know they are very progressive. So, not sure about any real NDP support but I know they don't lean Con.

The one at the development company is the oldest of them. Really proud of that part of my family, all doing well, all smart and compassionate. 

[Bob Long]

24 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

I am excited that Maja Tait, the Mayor of Sooke, will be the NDP candidate replacing retiring popular MP Randall Garrison for the Esquimalt, Saanich, Sooke riding. 

She almost agreed to be our Liberal Candidate in the last election cycle, but maybe she was being polite with me. hehe. I worked on her re-elections as Mayor and supported her first run where she won it, and she later went on to Chair the BC Council of Mayors. Regardless of party affiliation she will be an amazing representative for the people of her riding. I have since moved out of that riding but I wish her well. She should win it handily. 

 

the last time that riding was anything other than NDP was Dr Keith Martin, elected in 1993, who left the Conservative benches when the Canadian Alliance(reform)  merged with the PC party create basically the modern Cons. He joined the Liberal Party and held the seat until Randall Garrison took it in 2011. Prior to Keith Martin the riding was NDP with Dave Barrett. I don't see it flipping away from the NDP next cycle. 

 

the island is such a unique mix of military, government and redneck hippies (a thing unique to the island as far as I can tell) that it will stay NDP for a very long time. Which is fine, I like having a multi party federal system. 

[Bob Long]

1 minute ago, bishopshodan said:

4 of my nephews are West Van ( British Properties) boys. 

They dont talk too much politics but I know they are very progressive. So, not sure about any real NDP support but I know they don't lean Con.

The one at the development company is the oldest of them. Really proud of that part of my family, all doing well, all smart and compassionate. 

 

many in the Mulroney and prior PCs also had their version of good old Canadian compassion. Its the merger with the victimhood culture Reformers that turned the con's cruel. 

[Optimist Prime]

14 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

the island is such a unique mix of military, government and redneck hippies (a thing unique to the island as far as I can tell) that it will stay NDP for a very long time. Which is fine, I like having a multi party federal system. 

North Island might be a CON seat going forward, but i haven't seen the finalized lines from redistribution. If it cuts one larger community out of the rural riding, it could flip CON and stay there for a generation. I don't know, just a feeling. 

[Bob Long]

1 minute ago, Optimist Prime said:

North Island might be a CON seat going forward, but i haven't seen the finalized lines from redistribution. If it cuts one larger community out of the rural riding, it could flip CON and stay there for a generation. I don't know, just a feeling. 

 

interesting I hadn't heard that... I wonder what the deal is there, maybe stronger connections with AB or northern interior?

[Johngould21]

17 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

the island is such a unique mix of military, government and redneck hippies (a thing unique to the island as far as I can tell) that it will stay NDP for a very long time. Which is fine, I like having a multi party federal system. 

Please identify what this actually means. I was a logger back in the 70's, had long hair, enjoyed the odd toke. Do you mean this? I was far from a redneck, lol!

[Optimist Prime]

2 minutes ago, Johngould21 said:

Please identify what this actually means. I was a logger back in the 70's, had long hair, enjoyed the odd toke. Do you mean this? I was far from a redneck, lol!

I don't think he means it as an insult. I can sometimes see myself fitting the description too: a stanfield shirt to keep warm, my hair pulled together at the back of my Canucks hat with an elastic and a joint hangin out over my salt n pepper beard, resting my feet on a husky chainsaw from my lawnchair by the fire in Youbou on a day trip to see fam. "redneck hippie'' seems accurate.

[aGENT]

28 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

the island is such a unique mix of military, government and redneck hippies (a thing unique to the island as far as I can tell) that it will stay NDP for a very long time. Which is fine, I like having a multi party federal system. 

There's a good chunk of "regular" redneck (not hippy) and retired, rich, white (a lot of ex Alberta) conservatives here too. Thankfully they're still outnumbered by progressives though...I think.