Canadian Politics Thread

[The Lock]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yup, have good ideas, good economic policy, good leadership, want to actually improve things for Canadians? Majority! 

 

Where's that party today?....

 

That's a big part of the issue. Each party right now feels disingenuous in their own way.

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

well, the CPC was taken over by the whiney victimhood reformers, so thats out. 

 

Hair boy has outlasted his best years.

 

Jag, is, well Jag.

 

Dunno 

 

Seriously though, who the hell do you vote for in this reality?

 

 

[The Lock]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

Seriously though, who the hell do you vote for in this reality?

 

 

I'm in a riding where my vote won't matter. It'll be Conservative, guaranteed. lol

 

(I guess just because I'm against shifting geographical ridings based on population doesn't mean I have to like my current situation lol)

[Bob Long]

11 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

Seriously though, who the hell do you vote for in this reality?

 

 

 

I don't vote person, I vote policy. So at this point, lib, because they still have the best ideas, such as they are.

[Sapper]

The federal liberals use to be conservative in everything but social issues .... As my grandfather use to say " liberals are conservatives minus religion"

 

I think that was true until Truduea who after Harper steering Canada to the far right .. he ran on a campaign to move Canada back to the center. Now in a coalition he has had to continue moving to the left on certain policies 

 

 

Canada doesn't have a real conservative party to vote for now. The current form of conservatives in Canada is farther right then anything in our countries history. It may be called conservative but it's more of a alt right nationalist party with evangelical indoctrination policies 

 

One would think people would understand that when one party cranks that pendulum beyond the safe confines of the centre ... It only has one way to go and that's at the speed of light the other way 

 

It's a safe bet that PP is winning the next election ... Just to sort out if it's a majority or minority government 

 

One things for sure .... In 4 years after Canada will be heading towards a farther left group to correct it 

 

PP hasn't learned from the history of the BC liberals and Sask party that although very conservative stayed far from social agenda issues. Both now see their polling drop as they start dipping into that realm and using their voice for the religious rights wish lists on LGBTQ issues and more 

 

Canada has always been a majority financially conservative voter base with the overwhelming majority being progressive not religious which is why we have never had a.federal NDP government In power and most often a fed liberal party 

That pendulum is about to get bent to the right and like a sling shot will be racing back the other way in a few short.years

 

 

 

[aGENT]

9 minutes ago, The Lock said:

 

I'm in a riding where my vote won't matter. It'll be Conservative, guaranteed. lol

 

(I guess just because I'm against shifting geographical ridings based on population doesn't mean I have to like my current situation lol)

 

You should be all for ranked ballot then! 

 

It's ridings like yours that it would make a big difference. How much voter apathy do you think exists in your riding? How many extra people would vote and/or vote differently if they could rank their choices? 

 

Maybe enough people start to realize they have some actual choice and your riding becomes less of a foregone conclusion at some point? At the very least, it helps ensure your conservative candidate maybe has to start working harder to stay in office and earn votes.

 

 

[King Heffy]

Let's say myself and a group of 9 other friends and myself want to go for dinner.

 

4 want to go for a Thai restaurant that's known for really spicy food and won't turn down the heat.

3 want to go to The Keg, which is boring but I can eat the food.

2 want to go for sushi, which sounds great. 

 

The way the system is set up now, if I can't handle spicy food, I have to vote for the keg to get any hope of an edible meal.  However, I would think most friends groups would talk it over and come to a consensus that most people would be reasonably ok with as well.

[Elias Pettersson]

39 minutes ago, The Lock said:

 

I'm in a riding where my vote won't matter. It'll be Conservative, guaranteed. lol

 

(I guess just because I'm against shifting geographical ridings based on population doesn't mean I have to like my current situation lol)

 

According to 338Canada, the Liberals will only win 1 seat in BC.  So most likely everyone in this thread will have a Conservative MP...

[The Lock]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

According to 338Canada, the Liberals will only win 1 seat in BC.  So most likely everyone in this thread will have a Conservative MP...

 

There's also the NDP that often takes the seats down in the lower mainland and on the island. Remember, this is a multi-party system. Not voting Liberal does not necessarily mean they're voting Conservative.

Edited June 8 by The Lock

[Elias Pettersson]

8 minutes ago, The Lock said:

 

There's also the NDP that often takes the seats down in the lower mainland and on the island. Remember, this is a multi-party system. Not voting Liberal does not necessarily mean they're voting Conservative.

 

Right, I forgot about that.  NDP have 5 seats and the Green Party has 1 seat.  Conservatives have 36 and the Liberals have 1...

[The Lock]

3 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Right, I forgot about that.  NDP have 5 seats and the Green Party has 1 seat.  Conservatives have 36 and the Liberals have 1...

 

I'm not denying there isn't a shift by the way. I just wanted to make sure there's a more accurate representation happening.

 

That being said, I tend to trust polls as much as I do those sites that sell Chinese knockoffs claiming they're the "real thing". lol

[bishopshodan]

19 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

According to 338Canada, the Liberals will only win 1 seat in BC.  So most likely everyone in this thread will have a Conservative MP...

 

I hope the good ship Van Isl hold our NDP dominance but there is quite a bit or blue being spread about over here too. 

[Elias Pettersson]

1 minute ago, The Lock said:

 

I'm not denying there isn't a shift by the way. I just wanted to make sure there's a more accurate representation happening.

 

That being said, I tend to trust polls as much as I do those sites that sell Chinese knockoffs claiming they're the "real thing". lol

 

The polls have been pretty much the same for months now.  I'm sure there will be changes from now until next October, but unless PP ends up in prison I highly doubt the Conservatives are going to lose.  If Trudeau resigned then that could change everything, but we know he won't even though it's been 9 years and even Chretien resigned after 10 years.  So Trudeau must consider himself a dictator or something if he thinks he is entitled to be Prime Minister forever...

[The Lock]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The polls have been pretty much the same for months now.  I'm sure there will be changes from now until next October, but unless PP ends up in prison I highly doubt the Conservatives are going to lose.  If Trudeau resigned then that could change everything, but we know he won't even though it's been 9 years and even Chretien resigned after 10 years.  So Trudeau must consider himself a dictator or something if he thinks he is entitled to be Prime Minister forever...

 

You have to understand, I don't really care what the polls have done over the past month. I don't trust them in general. Polls generally make adjustments to their results since they know not every group of voters have the same likelihood of responding.

 

And in case you think it's because of which party is in favour, I assure you it's not. Even if the polls shows the Liberals in the lead, I wouldn't be trusting them.

[Bob Long]

1 hour ago, Sapper said:

The federal liberals use to be conservative in everything but social issues .... As my grandfather use to say " liberals are conservatives minus religion"

 

I think that was true until Truduea who after Harper steering Canada to the far right .. he ran on a campaign to move Canada back to the center. Now in a coalition he has had to continue moving to the left on certain policies 

 

 

Canada doesn't have a real conservative party to vote for now. The current form of conservatives in Canada is farther right then anything in our countries history. It may be called conservative but it's more of a alt right nationalist party with evangelical indoctrination policies 

 

One would think people would understand that when one party cranks that pendulum beyond the safe confines of the centre ... It only has one way to go and that's at the speed of light the other way 

 

It's a safe bet that PP is winning the next election ... Just to sort out if it's a majority or minority government 

 

One things for sure .... In 4 years after Canada will be heading towards a farther left group to correct it 

 

PP hasn't learned from the history of the BC liberals and Sask party that although very conservative stayed far from social agenda issues. Both now see their polling drop as they start dipping into that realm and using their voice for the religious rights wish lists on LGBTQ issues and more 

 

Canada has always been a majority financially conservative voter base with the overwhelming majority being progressive not religious which is why we have never had a.federal NDP government In power and most often a fed liberal party 

That pendulum is about to get bent to the right and like a sling shot will be racing back the other way in a few short.years

 

 

 

 

Well said.

[The Lock]

1 hour ago, Sapper said:

The federal liberals use to be conservative in everything but social issues .... As my grandfather use to say " liberals are conservatives minus religion"

 

I think that was true until Truduea who after Harper steering Canada to the far right .. he ran on a campaign to move Canada back to the center. Now in a coalition he has had to continue moving to the left on certain policies 

 

 

Canada doesn't have a real conservative party to vote for now. The current form of conservatives in Canada is farther right then anything in our countries history. It may be called conservative but it's more of a alt right nationalist party with evangelical indoctrination policies 

 

One would think people would understand that when one party cranks that pendulum beyond the safe confines of the centre ... It only has one way to go and that's at the speed of light the other way 

 

It's a safe bet that PP is winning the next election ... Just to sort out if it's a majority or minority government 

 

One things for sure .... In 4 years after Canada will be heading towards a farther left group to correct it 

 

PP hasn't learned from the history of the BC liberals and Sask party that although very conservative stayed far from social agenda issues. Both now see their polling drop as they start dipping into that realm and using their voice for the religious rights wish lists on LGBTQ issues and more 

 

Canada has always been a majority financially conservative voter base with the overwhelming majority being progressive not religious which is why we have never had a.federal NDP government In power and most often a fed liberal party 

That pendulum is about to get bent to the right and like a sling shot will be racing back the other way in a few short.years

 

 

I do hope that we get back to the Liberals being those "Conservatives minus the religion".

 

And I fully agree with what you're said. I think the right wing voters defending PP just do not understand what they're actually defending. Sure we can "try PP out", in fact, we probably need to at this point so that the Liberals have a chance to move back to where they were, but I bet a lot of the PP defenders will be disappointed with what they see with him in power.

[RupertKBD]

1 hour ago, Sapper said:

The federal liberals use to be conservative in everything but social issues .... As my grandfather use to say " liberals are conservatives minus religion"

 

I think that was true until Truduea who after Harper steering Canada to the far right .. he ran on a campaign to move Canada back to the center. Now in a coalition he has had to continue moving to the left on certain policies 

 

 

Canada doesn't have a real conservative party to vote for now. The current form of conservatives in Canada is farther right then anything in our countries history. It may be called conservative but it's more of a alt right nationalist party with evangelical indoctrination policies 

 

One would think people would understand that when one party cranks that pendulum beyond the safe confines of the centre ... It only has one way to go and that's at the speed of light the other way 

 

It's a safe bet that PP is winning the next election ... Just to sort out if it's a majority or minority government 

 

One things for sure .... In 4 years after Canada will be heading towards a farther left group to correct it 

 

PP hasn't learned from the history of the BC liberals and Sask party that although very conservative stayed far from social agenda issues. Both now see their polling drop as they start dipping into that realm and using their voice for the religious rights wish lists on LGBTQ issues and more 

 

Canada has always been a majority financially conservative voter base with the overwhelming majority being progressive not religious which is why we have never had a.federal NDP government In power and most often a fed liberal party 

That pendulum is about to get bent to the right and like a sling shot will be racing back the other way in a few short.years

 

Let me start off by saying that I like you as a poster and that you make a lot of good points, but this has been bugging me forever....

 

What's up with the weird spelling of Trudeau? Is there something behind that?

[Gurn]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

 

Seriously though, who the hell do you vote for in this reality?

 

 

Vote for someone?

Who does that anymore?

Voting is now, mostly,  about keeping the 'other guy' out; not getting 'your' guy in.

 

 

Yes- to electoral reform.

Edited June 8 by Gurn

[Sapper]

5 hours ago, RupertKBD said:

 

Let me start off by saying that I like you as a poster and that you make a lot of good points, but this has been bugging me forever....

 

What's up with the weird spelling of Trudeau? Is there something behind that?

Fat fingers no spell.check on phone lol

All my posts should be taken as EO & E 

Edited June 9 by Sapper

[Optimist Prime]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The Liberals aren’t a left wing party. At least they never used to be. That’s how they’ve been able to be in power for so long over the decades. 
 

The fact that they are considered “left wing” today is the reason why they will be losing the next election. If they elected a new leader and moved to the centre again they’d easily win another election. 

As much as folks that have never voted Liberal don't like Justin Trudeau, you have to remember that before he ran for the leadership of the party the Liberals had been reduced to the third place party in the house, in their worst showing of all time under successive poor leadership choices following Steven Harper's election over Mr Dithers. 

Justin and his team, cough cough, basically revived the Liberal party and brought it back to power. Being in second place in the polls right now, and in power for another 17 months or so is still FAR better a position than the day we elected Justin Trudeau as the party leader. 

 

I think the opposition is too JT focused...the moment he leaves and a new Liberal Leader emerges, over a decade of talking points get wiped off the table. I also find it funny that it took a decade of every day attacks on Justin Trudeau to whittle his support down enough that someone might beat him in an election. For what is worth, I still think Justin can win, the party does too. We will see what happens. 

[Bob Long]

11 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

For what is worth, I still think Justin can win, the party does too. We will see what happens. 

 

what conditions have to change to make that happen tho? 

 

Is anyone who likes Skippy now going to be convinced by some attack ads to drop him? Maybe Trump winning scares us straight? 

 

[Optimist Prime]

18 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

what conditions have to change to make that happen tho? 

 

Is anyone who likes Skippy now going to be convinced by some attack ads to drop him? Maybe Trump winning scares us straight? 

 

In broad strokes, the CON men have a 15% lead right now over the Liberals: that is only a SWING of 7.5%. 
Lets say, again just broadly speaking, that the election starts with a 10% lead, or just a five point swing vote. (remember six months ago they were tied, 16 months from now the voter intentions could be wildly different than they look right now today) 
if its a ten point lead.. it would look something like Liberals: 28%, Cons: 38% NDP: 18%, more or less...

 

So we already know from previous Elections the LIberals can form government with 32 to 34 % of the vote. The CONS have no dance partners at the moment and so they need 38 to 42% to form a majority, or obviously the Liberals and NDP will vote them down at the first confidence vote and form government again as they have today. (beore anyone yells about the will of the people: in this scenario the Combined Lib/NDP vote is about 48% or more, which would outwiegh the CONs 40%)

 

So basically, from todays numbers, all that needs to happen for the CONS not to form government is that the Cons fail to grow any more than they already have. Seeing as Peak Poilievre was almost a month ago and he has already lost 5% of his polling over the last thirty days..that is not really even that hard to imagine. 

So lets say the Liberals want a majority instead of relying on other progressive parties to prop them up: They are already ahead in the maritimes and Quebec: if they can make gains in BC and Ontario, the prairies aren't and never have been a growth prospect for the liberals, then we will at least have a status quo of the current minority government: BUT, and this is the tricky bit as its very fluid right now....

 

....The NDP have been losing voter support at the ballot box since Jack Layton's big breakthrough..they are trending lower in percentages and trending lower in seats...
It is entirely possible that with so many MP's not running again for the NDP, that their rump is reduced below official party status, that would be 12 seats, so lets say 11. If the percentage of their support outside the core of BC moves below 15%, which is entirely possible, that will generally go almost exclusively to the LIberals from Thunder Bay eastwards... and from the Rockies west... which could be a 3 to 5% swing from NDP to Liberals that could be enough to tip the Libs very near or over the majority threshold. 

I know that all sounds retarded considering the Libs are currently 15% behind the CONS...but what if I told you that if you take away the results from Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan and remove those results from the coast to coast to coast polls: that 15% current gap is already just an 8 points gap, or a 4% swing... it is much more likely sounding. 

 

Shrug. All I am pretty sure about is that without a pure majority, Pierre Poilievre won't hold onto power. Meanwhile, the Liberals, can survive or at least have a shot to survive with anything over 29%, provided they have a dance partner with another up to 18% support. The Prairies will almost totally go to Pepi Le Pew, that won't change, but 60 or 70 seats 'headstart' in the prairies might not be enough for the cons if they are mired at 34% everywhere else. 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

48 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

As much as folks that have never voted Liberal don't like Justin Trudeau, you have to remember that before he ran for the leadership of the party the Liberals had been reduced to the third place party in the house, in their worst showing of all time under successive poor leadership choices following Steven Harper's election over Mr Dithers. 

Justin and his team, cough cough, basically revived the Liberal party and brought it back to power. Being in second place in the polls right now, and in power for another 17 months or so is still FAR better a position than the day we elected Justin Trudeau as the party leader. 

 

I think the opposition is too JT focused...the moment he leaves and a new Liberal Leader emerges, over a decade of talking points get wiped off the table. I also find it funny that it took a decade of every day attacks on Justin Trudeau to whittle his support down enough that someone might beat him in an election. For what is worth, I still think Justin can win, the party does too. We will see what happens. 

Trudeau called an election that cost over $600 million in the middle of a pandemic where some people still couldn’t even leave their homes. 
 

He did that to prolong his stay in power. If he had waited the appropriate 4 years the election wound have happened last year and he would already be gone. 

[Optimist Prime]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Trudeau called an election that cost over $600 million in the middle of a pandemic where some people still couldn’t even leave their homes. 
 

He did that to prolong his stay in power. If he had waited the appropriate 4 years the election wound have happened last year and he would already be gone. 

Steven Harper called: he says sorry, but that boat sailed with prorogation. He called like four elections 18 months apart each...LMAO... your argument holds zero water. 

[Optimist Prime]

^ not to mention that the unprecedented situation with COVID and the extensive means to combat its effects on Canada, an election was necessary as a sort of plebescite that the government was doing the will of the people.