NoHeart Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 22 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: I have seen a few posts in here regarding the cause of inflation. Now mind you, I haven't bothered going back and reading 15 pages as was recommended by someone. I suppose all opinions are valid. Mine is based upon making a living full time in finance since 1998. Logging 40,000+ hours of screen time (got the wrecked eye sight to prove it) risking my own money in said markets. Being a life long student of financial markets etc. IMO the cause of inflation was Covid albeit indirectly. There were 2 main contributing factors. #1) being a rapid expansion of the monetary supply #2) being a curtailing of manufacturing. Both these conditions were met during Covid. There has been a massive expansion in monetary supply since The Great Recession (2009) but it never resulted in inflation even crossing 2%. I know because I was waiting 12 long years for inflation to show up. The reason it never showed up was because endless rounds of Quantitative Easing only directly benefits those with assets. The point of the entire program was to life asset prices, mainly real estate and equities. If you have assets you got the bailout of a lifetime. If you had/have no assets well 'screw you' was the governments thinking. Starting with Covid and that round of massive monetary expansion all G-7 nations this time funnelled the money directly to the people. Who predicatively spent it with reckless abandon. Which of course is the definition of inflation - too much money in the system chasing too few goods. You saw it first with used cars and electronics. Manufacturing shut down or greatly curtailed meant new electronics/vehicles were scarce. It spread like wild fire from there. That IMO was your cause of inflation. The endless looting of the Treasury finally made it down to the little guy not just the 'well off'. There's nothing inflationary about handing a rich guy millions of dollars and having him plow it into NVDA stock. There is with handing it to the little guy and having him spend it in the general economy. It was actual trickle down economics on steroids not the bullshit line you've been fed for 40+ years by 'Fiscal Conservatives' as the wealth gap became a chasm. Overall inflation is a tough metric to follow. A 25% swing in commodity prices can drastically change inflation. The biggest issue we are facing right now is debt in both the government level and wage to debt ratio. Most of our growth is based off our housing bubble. The mortgage debt itself and all the related services based off that debt are vulnerable. The only way to relieve this pressure is higher interest rates and an increase in the housing supply. A stronger currency would immediately help with inflation but it would simultaneously make us less competitive with competing countries if the goal is to increase our exports and foreign investment. The only solution will be a painful one. Letting the air out of the mortgage bubble will drive us into recession, then another cycle of quantitative easing and right back to where we were. The low Covid rate mortgages are coming up for renewal now and it’s going to be a bloody mess. My mortgages doubled from 2018. I can’t imagine what it’s going to be like for the average person whose rates are increasing by nearly 4%. This is going to be deflationary, it’s likely already spilling into our inflation metrics. How do we increase the housing supply without purchasing power and deflation? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 hour ago, King Heffy said: I'm just a little confused about using "purity" to describe a blend. "Authentic" might be a better choice? Not sure if you’ve ever been to Italy. But if you go to Tuscany you can literally make the wine yourself from scratch and bottle it yourself. To me that is as pure as it gets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Not sure if you’ve ever been to Italy. But if you go to Tuscany you can literally make the wine yourself from scratch and bottle it yourself. To me that is as pure as it gets. For me, pure would be one grape variety. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pure I'm using the first definition here. Edited June 17 by King Heffy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satchmo Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 38 minutes ago, NoHeart said: That’s pretty outdated, his inheritance alone was worth 45,000,000 https://www.caclubindia.com/assets/justin-trudeau-net-worth/ I just had another look. This is the age of disinformation and I am suspect of many of the sources of the numbers I saw. I still believe those numbers to be greatly exaggerated. MSN/CBC/Forbes all have much lower numbers, all of them around the figure I gave. From what I can see the inheritance was 1.2 mil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said: Not sure if you’ve ever been to Italy. But if you go to Tuscany you can literally make the wine yourself from scratch and bottle it yourself. To me that is as pure as it gets. I have made my own wine for thirty years, off and on. Not sure i follow what you are trying to say. One doesn't need to be in Italy for this, do they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Not sure if you’ve ever been to Italy. But if you go to Tuscany you can literally make the wine yourself from scratch and bottle it yourself. To me that is as pure as it gets. Now i am picturing you stomping in a tub of grapes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Just now, Satchmo said: I just had another look. This is the age of disinformation and I am suspect of many of the sources of the numbers I saw. I still believe those numbers to be greatly exaggerated. MSN/CBC/Forbes all have much lower numbers, all of them around the figure I gave. From what I can see the inheritance was 1.2 mil. I could be wrong but I believe it was below 2 million inherited and currently below 50million in total. his assets are managed in a blind trust, including the manufacturing small appliances and stocks/funds. I am not the be all and end all of data for this, I only happened to research it a few weeks or months ago and have an idea of what was in that data. Fwiw, i don't consider social media "research", either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 3 minutes ago, King Heffy said: For me, pure would be one grape variety. Good point. Chianti could be just striaght Sangiovese. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satchmo Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, Optimist Prime said: I could be wrong but I believe it was below 2 million inherited and currently below 50million in total. his assets are managed in a blind trust, including the manufacturing small appliances and stocks/funds. I am not the be all and end all of data for this, I only happened to research it a few weeks or months ago and have an idea of what was in that data. Fwiw, i don't consider social media "research", either. I've seen the 1.2 million figure a few times. Not sure I really care except that I find the net worth you see via Google to be laughable. I'd rather talk about how PP got to 25 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmchairGM22 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 (edited) 14 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Sir, you need to realize Twitter is a cesspool of misinformation. Posting something with a handle like that doesn't make people give it the benefit of the doubt. I saw the handle and noped out immediately. Perhaps you can find a source that doesn't present as mean spirited and ridiculous? If an interview directly with a farmer where they talk of the costs that it has imposed, and the farming association post I provided is insufficient for you, it doesn’t matter what is provided. the technique of never accepting any source, never listening or reading information contrary to one’s bias is a strategy to avoid dealing with information that may prove you’re incorrect. It’s intellectual fear. many people avoid like this, it’s not new and others have already done it here as I said prior, intellectually honest people are open to at least reviewing information contrary to their bias and then assessing. Those who play this source and avoid game are fearful of admitting they may be incorrect. Done Edited June 17 by ArmchairGM22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 7 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said: I have made my own wine for thirty years, off and on. Not sure i follow what you are trying to say. One doesn't need to be in Italy for this, do they? I do pear and apple... Correction, I take a couple buckets full to a local farm and they do it, then i bottle it, using their stuff... then i pay them. works out to about $6 per btl. Then give away as gifts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, ArmchairGM22 said: If an interview directly with a farmer where they talk of the costs that it has imposed, and the farming association post I provided is insufficient for you, it doesn’t matter what is provided. the technique of never accepting any source, never listening or reading information contrary to one’s bias is a strategy to avoid dealing with information that may prove you’re incorrect. It’s intellectual fear. many people avoid like this, it’s not new and others have already done it here as I said prior, intellectually honest people are open to at least reviewing information contrary to their bias and then assessing. Those who play this source game are fearful of being admitting they may be incorrect. Done Your source is no more valid than Optimist Prime's own experiences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 2 minutes ago, King Heffy said: For me, pure would be one grape variety. I agree. You only need to use one grape. The purest Chianti is a simple Sangiovese grape. Most people like to mix their grapes to get a blended wine. If you buy the Chianti in Vancouver most likely it is only 80% Sangiovese grapes. If you go to Tuscany and make the wine yourself you can get it to 100% pure Sangiovese grapes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 3 minutes ago, Satchmo said: I've seen the 1.2 million figure a few times. Not sure I really care except that I find the net worth you see via Google to be laughable. I'd rather talk about how PP got to 25 million. yeah we all know how the guy who inherited a million or more got rich, you need money to make money. The guy I am most curious about is the guy who started with nothing, did nothing before public service and somehow got 25 million as a member of parliament. The blind trust guys must be geniuses, guffaw, if you believe that for a minute. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHeart Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 4 minutes ago, Satchmo said: I've seen the 1.2 million figure a few times. Not sure I really care except that I find the net worth you see via Google to be laughable. I'd rather talk about how PP got to 25 million. He got it cause he knows how to handle money. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said: I agree. You only need to use one grape. The purest Chianti is a simple Sangiovese grape. Most people like to mix their grapes to get a blended wine. If you buy the Chianti in Vancouver most likely it is only 80% Sangiovese grapes. If you go to Tuscany and make the wine yourself you can get it to 100% pure Sangiovese grapes. I am about to head to the liquor store: should i try a Chianti? I have avoided italian wines my whole life, not on purpose, just partial to penot's and chilean reds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Just now, NoHeart said: He got it cause he knows how to handle money. So you are saying he abuses the blind trust management of his funds while he is voting on and was a minister in cabinet voting on the very things that may affect someones investments? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHeart Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 We are on the Devils page. hail satan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 7 minutes ago, NoHeart said: Overall inflation is a tough metric to follow. A 25% swing in commodity prices can drastically change inflation. The biggest issue we are facing right now is debt in both the government level and wage to debt ratio. Most of our growth is based off our housing bubble. The mortgage debt itself and all the related services based off that debt are vulnerable. The only way to relieve this pressure is higher interest rates and an increase in the housing supply. A stronger currency would immediately help with inflation but it would simultaneously make us less competitive with competing countries if the goal is to increase our exports and foreign investment. The only solution will be a painful one. Letting the air out of the mortgage bubble will drive us into recession, then another cycle of quantitative easing and right back to where we were. The low Covid rate mortgages are coming up for renewal now and it’s going to be a bloody mess. My mortgages doubled from 2018. I can’t imagine what it’s going to be like for the average person whose rates are increasing by nearly 4%. This is going to be deflationary, it’s likely already spilling into our inflation metrics. How do we increase the housing supply without purchasing power and deflation? Commodity prices have always been cyclical. We've seen very large swings in some commodities without drastically effecting inflation. People have had it too good for too long regarding rates. Normal rates historically are in the 4-5% range. Although I do believe central banks would like rates back down to lower levels if only to service their irresponsible levels of debt. While the increasing mortgages may become a problem I doubt it will be much of a problem in the Pacific Northwest. It's far too desirable a place to live, with far too much pent up demand for prices to tumble much IMO. Housing supply is a serious issue especially with the rapid increase in immigration. However, with the massive drop in birth rates if we want to keep all the economic balls in the air we need to increase the population. Certainly some interesting times ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satchmo Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, NoHeart said: We are on the Devils page. hail satan. Could not have got here without you. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, NoHeart said: We are on the Devils page. hail satan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHeart Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, Optimist Prime said: So you are saying he abuses the blind trust management of his funds while he is voting on and was a minister in cabinet voting on the very things that may affect someones investments? https://www.caclubindia.com/assets/pierre-poilievre-net-worth/ it’s all right here, although, this page is supposedly disinformation when it comes to Justin’s Net worth and proof that Poilievre is corrupt AF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 4 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said: I am about to head to the liquor store: should i try a Chianti? I have avoided italian wines my whole life, not on purpose, just partial to penot's and chilean reds. It goes well with steak 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmchairGM22 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 (edited) 14 minutes ago, King Heffy said: Your source is no more valid than Optimist Prime's own experiences. Well king Heffy Rather than trust me or my sources since I’m so unreliable, may I suggest the following first - not all farmers are impacted the same way so we need to get that out of the way. Ie some who don’t need grain or heated barns aren’t impacted the same way as those who do. Second, since you won’t trust my sources and since the Canucks site shouldn’t be anyone’s primary source, may I suggest the following google - “Canadian farmers impact and carbon tax ” you may learn a lot from That good luck! Edited June 17 by ArmchairGM22 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 5 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said: I am about to head to the liquor store: should i try a Chianti? I have avoided italian wines my whole life, not on purpose, just partial to penot's and chilean reds. Yes. If you like your wine dry try the Chianti Classico. If you want to splurge and pay more then go for the Brunello di Montalcino. It’s probably the best Italian wine out there. It’s basically 100% Sangiovese grapes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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