Canadian Politics Thread

[bishopshodan]

15 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Enjoy.

 

Holy smokes you responded to me.

Thank you.

 

Can you elaberate on how Jag has been an ' Utter failure as a leader' ?

 

I voted NDP for the first time last election. They didn't win but the things they got done made me happy.Really made a lot out of the cards they were dealt.  

Now he has moved the NDP away from the S/C which is a good 'leader' move imo. 

 

So please let me know your thoughts on why he is an utter failure.

Edited September 4 by bishopshodan
I wont hold my breath....

[RupertKBD]

Not sure what the plan is for Jag here....

 

At this point, a federal election will hand the Cons a majority government. One where the NDP will have little, or no influence over policy. He doesn't actually expect PP to hew closer to the NDP's platform, does he?

[RupertKBD]

7 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

 

Holy smokes you responded to me.

Thank you.

 

Can you elaberate on how Jag has been an ' Utter failure as a leader' ?

 

I voted NDP for the first time last election. They didn't win but the things they got done made me happy.Really made a lot out of the cards they were dealt.  

Now he has moved the NDP away from the S/C which is a good 'leader' move imo. 

 

So please let me know your thoughts on why he is an utter failure.

 

Because his campaign signage is Orange, instead of Blue....

[Bob Long]

52 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

It costs $3 to ride the bus now?  Fucking Trudeau and his inflation!!   

 

I'm just bugging you. I do want to see more scientific polls tho. 

 

The Tweety ones are goofy, same with the magazine ones.

 

[Bob Long]

2 minutes ago, RupertKBD said:

Not sure what the plan is for Jag here....

 

At this point, a federal election will hand the Cons a majority government. One where the NDP will have little, or no influence over policy. He doesn't actually expect PP to hew closer to the NDP's platform, does he?

 

I saw a " sellout Singh" commercial on YouTube last night. 

 

From the guy that secured his federal pension at 33.

[King Heffy]

1 minute ago, RupertKBD said:

Not sure what the plan is for Jag here....

 

At this point, a federal election will hand the Cons a majority government. One where the NDP will have little, or no influence over policy. He doesn't actually expect PP to hew closer to the NDP's platform, does he?

I suspect the plan is just to put more pressure on the Libs to work cooperatively instead of immediately toppling the government.

[Boudrias]

10 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

 

Holy smokes you responded to me.

Thank you.

 

Can you elaberate on how Jag has been an ' Utter failure as a leader' ?

 

I voted NDP for the first time last election. They didn't win but the things they got done made me happy.Really made a lot out of the cards they were dealt.  

Now he has moved the NDP away from the S/C which is a good 'leader' move imo. 

 

So please let me know your thoughts on why he is an utter failure.

I won't go into a long argument. Simply put I don't respect politicians who make unfunded promises. Such promises are disingenuous. Yes, I understand that the Liberals and CPC do as well. NDP are just more extreme. Unfunded promises are simply BS. All politicians should be called to task when they do it. If Singh wants to fix everyone's teeth at the taxpayers expense then state where the money is coming from. State that he will raise the corporate tax rate by 1%. Then defend the program based on economics. All programs should be dealt with in this way each election. 

[DSVII]

39 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

 

 

Very interesting. 

 

I don't know if this guarantees an election, probably more for optics. NDP was seen as an extension of the lib party propping them up, so they weren't benefitting from the Liberal crash in polls.  They can still prop up the government by voting with the liberals, but their leverage may be better now they can more easily threaten dissolving the government.

 

 

 

 

[Thats a small body]

10 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

I saw a " sellout Singh" commercial on YouTube last night. 

 

From the guy that secured his federal pension at 33.

Ive been getting a lot of those lately, along with ones about hunting rifles

[bishopshodan]

11 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I won't go into a long argument. Simply put I don't respect politicians who make unfunded promises. Such promises are disingenuous. Yes, I understand that the Liberals and CPC do as well. NDP are just more extreme. Unfunded promises are simply BS. All politicians should be called to task when they do it. If Singh wants to fix everyone's teeth at the taxpayers expense then state where the money is coming from. State that he will raise the corporate tax rate by 1%. Then defend the program based on economics. All programs should be dealt with in this way each election. 

 

Thanks for your answer.

 

I can accept he is somewhat idealistic and vague. The ideas, to me, are great though and they have taken a step forward. While having to deal with them nasty libs.

 

I feel there are bigger things in play that have to be curbed before we become just like the USA. I dont want to see a two party system. 

Giving the NDP a shot could help us in the long run. 

Edited September 4 by bishopshodan

[the destroyer of worlds]

All this means is the NDP are not guaranteed to support the Lib government in a vote of non-confidence.  Parliament doesn't sit until the 16th.  I don't see the NDP voting against the Libs just yet, but I do see them getting though the fall.  The latest will be spring 2025.

 

Maybe the best thing for the libs to survive the fall is to dump JT.  He's dead weight.

[Coconuts]

4 minutes ago, the destroyer of worlds said:

All this means is the NDP are not guaranteed to support the Lib government in a vote of non-confidence.  Parliament doesn't sit until the 16th.  I don't see the NDP voting against the Libs just yet, but I do see them getting though the fall.  The latest will be spring 2025.

 

Maybe the best thing for the libs to survive the fall is to dump JT.  He's dead weight.

 

Probably, the NDP want progressive legislation going through before a federal election don't they? They don't get that if PP gets in sooner than later. 

 

Could be what this is about in part, JT's just got too much baggage at this point and that doesn't benefit the Liberals. Thing is, it doesn't benefit the NDP either, strong arming a party leader who looks to be on his way out to get Canadians more supports is a better look for the NDP. 

 

Libs are on notice, it's time for a change, which is what most folks who aren't keen on PP have been saying around here for a while. Cut Trudeau loose and suddenly the Cons lose a lot of ammunition. 

[Optimist Prime]

48 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Singh's numbers are falling along with the Liberals. He will be tarred with the same brush in a federal election. PP is being invited onto shop floors across the country.

 

I suspect the by-election results will play a roll on whether there is an election this fall or not. If Singh defeats the government he might be able to craft an election campaign to attract disaffected Liberals. He might think he could be leader of the Opposition if all goes well. It would be a pay raise for him. Utter failure as a leader IMHO. I would vote for Trudeau if they were my only choices. Excuse me while I barf. 

Aside from the regurgitation, I too think this was a colossal error by Singh. His party will lose seats and the little money they stockpiled between the last election and now. With 8 of his incumbants retiring he has no party shoulders to stand on. Mr Singh, you are no Jack Layton.

 

Liberals will love not being yoked to the extreme left any longer, i expect our numbers to go up rather than down. Still likely a Peter Poutine government will be eventually elected but this is better for the Liberal Brand in the longer term. Glad Singh went back on his word to be honest. It highlights who he is as a human being. Toronto Lawyer named Dhaliwal with 12 letter words. He has been pretending to be a BC Singh with a small vocab for far too long, about time he retires which will be right after this coming election. 

[Bob Long]

21 minutes ago, Thats a small body said:

Ive been getting a lot of those lately, along with ones about hunting rifles

 

My condolences

[the destroyer of worlds]

9 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

Probably, the NDP want progressive legislation going through before a federal election don't they? They don't get that if PP gets in sooner than later. 

 

Could be what this is about in part, JT's just got too much baggage at this point and that doesn't benefit the Liberals. Thing is, it doesn't benefit the NDP either, strong arming a party leader who looks to be on his way out to get Canadians more supports is a better look for the NDP. 

 

Libs are on notice, it's time for a change, which is what most folks who aren't keen on PP have been saying around here for a while. Cut Trudeau loose and suddenly the Cons lose a lot of ammunition. 

 

There will be a lot of people who spent money on F Trudope merch who gonna be upset.  They'll have to change their whole identity.

[Coconuts]

3 minutes ago, the destroyer of worlds said:

 

There will be a lot of people who spent money on F Trudope merch who gonna be upset.  They'll have to change their whole identity.

 

They can commiserate with their fellows who own "Let's Go Brandon" merch 

[the destroyer of worlds]

25 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

They can commiserate with their fellows who own "Let's Go Brandon" merch 

And PP can follow TRUMP's lead in court to recoup money spent attacking his opponent, only for that opponent to then be changed.  

[Optimist Prime]

1 hour ago, DSVII said:

 

 

Very interesting. 

 

I don't know if this guarantees an election, probably more for optics. NDP was seen as an extension of the lib party propping them up, so they weren't benefitting from the Liberal crash in polls.  They can still prop up the government by voting with the liberals, but their leverage may be better now they can more easily threaten dissolving the government.

 

 

 

 

I think your probably correct. The deal wasn't helping the Liberals, and it wasn't helping the NDP, but it DID help Canada through a very tough time with a constant known value in office, which is what it was designed to do. I know the federal Liberals will be happy not to be seen as moving left by leaps and bounds, and I am pretty sure the NDP realized a while ago they were not getting any credit for their efforts. 

 

Recent polling has the gap at 12% between Cons and LIbs at the moment, NDP sitting in their traditional 15 to 18% range of ineffectualness. 
A 12 point gap is a 6 point swing and as things get "more serious" about the chances of an upcoming election, it forces more people to scrutinize Skippy and his policies more. That will lead to shaving off a few points of that swing and when we get to an actual election campaign, the Cons could conceivably be down below a 35% support level again. I think for the rest of 2024 we are safe from an election as the NDP simply won't have any reason to topple the government, even without the deal in place. 

Singh so far has failed to move the needle any way to add NDP seats, and he is losing a third of his incumbents who are simply not running again for various reasons. 
This really puts some fun into federal politics for a bit, but not likely to lead to significant change until the new year. 

That is unless the Prime Minister sees a benefit to an early November walk to the GG's house to set up a December 16th vote.
: )

 

wouldn't that be something!

[24K]

Honestly I see a March election incoming. 

[Bob Long]

11 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said:

I think your probably correct. The deal wasn't helping the Liberals, and it wasn't helping the NDP, but it DID help Canada through a very tough time with a constant known value in office, which is what it was designed to do. I know the federal Liberals will be happy not to be seen as moving left by leaps and bounds, and I am pretty sure the NDP realized a while ago they were not getting any credit for their efforts. 

 

Recent polling has the gap at 12% between Cons and LIbs at the moment, NDP sitting in their traditional 15 to 18% range of ineffectualness. 
A 12 point gap is a 6 point swing and as things get "more serious" about the chances of an upcoming election, it forces more people to scrutinize Skippy and his policies more. That will lead to shaving off a few points of that swing and when we get to an actual election campaign, the Cons could conceivably be down below a 35% support level again. I think for the rest of 2024 we are safe from an election as the NDP simply won't have any reason to topple the government, even without the deal in place. 

Singh so far has failed to move the needle any way to add NDP seats, and he is losing a third of his incumbents who are simply not running again for various reasons. 
This really puts some fun into federal politics for a bit, but not likely to lead to significant change until the new year. 

That is unless the Prime Minister sees a benefit to an early November walk to the GG's house to set up a December 16th vote.
: )

 

wouldn't that be something!

 

A Christmas election? Now that would be interesting. Can Skippy whine his way to a win through the holiday season? 

 

Singh folded like a cheap tent today, all over one Skippy attack. 

 

I really hope that the libs can convince Carney to at least show up as finance minister soon.

 

[Thats a small body]

1 hour ago, Bob Long said:

 

My condolences

At least i know they are wasting ad money on me. I sure as hell aint voting for them

[Bob Long]

Just now, Thats a small body said:

At least i know they are wasting ad money on me. I sure as hell aint voting for them

 

I laughed pretty hard at it, it's so cheesey.

 

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, bishopshodan said:

 

I read that BC needs 600k more homes.

 

Total homes and current real estate inventory =\=

[Optimist Prime]

Aug 30th numbers on age 60+ which is the cohort most likely to actually vote, historically and a decent barometer of election forecasting;
 

CON: 35.63%  (down 5.74% since Aug 16th)

LIB: 35.37%     (up 4.8% since Aug 16th)
NDP: 14.88%    (up 2.96% since Aug 16th)

GRN: 3.65%     (up 0.41% since Aug 16th)

 

Aug 30th ages 50-59, the next most likely cohort to actually vote in the next election;

 

CON: 39.37%  (down 6.18% since Aug 2nd)

LIB: 28.42%     (up 5.48% since Aug 2nd)
NDP: 16.88%    (up 4.16% since Aug 2nd)

GRN: 3.77%     (up 0.26% since Aug 2nd)

 

Atlantic Canada all ages:

 

LIB: 46.76%

CON: 33.22%

NDP:  10.95%

GRN: 6.44%

 

In QUebec the BQ is down to 28.22%, from a peak in May of 42.18%.

LIberals are statistically tied right now half a point back, but within the margin of error.

Cons are sitting third place with 21.43% down from a recent high of 25.29% in July.

NDP have been climbing for several weeks to 14.20%

Greens are kicking around just above the PPC with 5.5%

 

 

The Prairies have shown quite a sluffing off of Con support, bleeding to the NDP since July 12th at a pretty solid rate.

CON: 51.80%  (down from 66.05% in July)

NDP: 28.62% (up from 17.69% in July)
LIB: 12.68% (down from 14% in July)

PPC: 4.84%
GRN: 0.65%

 

BC all ages (April was the Apex of Con support):

 

CON: 42.65% (down from 59.7% in april)

NDP: 30.49% (up from 19.20% in April)
LIB: 17.93% (up from 9.63% in April) 

GRN: 6.83%

PPC: 1.55%

 

And that leaves Ontario, the battleground of sorts:
 

CON: 44.45%  (down from peak Poilievre in March of 49.93%)
LIB: 30.29% (up from March numbers of 25.20%)
NDP: 17.29% (down 0.14% from march)

GRN: 4.58%

PPC: 2.09%

 

It is certainly a wild ride, and as far as i see it, the Liberal Team did what they needed to do to get us through Covid, and then they did what they needed to do to chop down the inflation that gave rise world wide in the post covid reality. I foresee Liberal numbers getting a bit better just from losing the ties that bound us to the NDP, frankly. 
I can't wait to see the numbers in two weeks. 

 

 

[Optimist Prime]

In about three or four weeks, if current trajectories hold out, the CONS will be the third place party among all women voters Coast to Coast to Coast. I will certainly post it when i see it. 

Peak Skippy among women was only 35.85%, in May, which took him nine months to get after he took over the Con Men. Currently skimming under 30 with Liberal and NDP gains week over week over week. 

 

Lastly, in March Poilievre led all mens voting intentions with 53.84%, now at 47.82%. Even among his key constituency he can't convince half of them to lean his way at the moment. What is he going to do when folks start to peak behind the purple curtain and see exactly who Oz the great and powerful really is?