24K Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 10 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said: Aug 30th numbers on age 60+ which is the cohort most likely to actually vote, historically and a decent barometer of election forecasting; CON: 35.63% (down 5.74% since Aug 16th) LIB: 35.37% (up 4.8% since Aug 16th) NDP: 14.88% (up 2.96% since Aug 16th) GRN: 3.65% (up 0.41% since Aug 16th) Aug 30th ages 50-59, the next most likely cohort to actually vote in the next election; CON: 39.37% (down 6.18% since Aug 2nd) LIB: 28.42% (up 5.48% since Aug 2nd) NDP: 16.88% (up 4.16% since Aug 2nd) GRN: 3.77% (up 0.26% since Aug 2nd) Atlantic Canada all ages: LIB: 46.76% CON: 33.22% NDP: 10.95% GRN: 6.44% In QUebec the BQ is down to 28.22%, from a peak in May of 42.18%. LIberals are statistically tied right now half a point back, but within the margin of error. Cons are sitting third place with 21.43% down from a recent high of 25.29% in July. NDP have been climbing for several weeks to 14.20% Greens are kicking around just above the PPC with 5.5% The Prairies have shown quite a sluffing off of Con support, bleeding to the NDP since July 12th at a pretty solid rate. CON: 51.80% (down from 66.05% in July) NDP: 28.62% (up from 17.69% in July) LIB: 12.68% (down from 14% in July) PPC: 4.84% GRN: 0.65% BC all ages (April was the Apex of Con support): CON: 42.65% (down from 59.7% in april) NDP: 30.49% (up from 19.20% in April) LIB: 17.93% (up from 9.63% in April) GRN: 6.83% PPC: 1.55% And that leaves Ontario, the battleground of sorts: CON: 44.45% (down from peak Poilievre in March of 49.93%) LIB: 30.29% (up from March numbers of 25.20%) NDP: 17.29% (down 0.14% from march) GRN: 4.58% PPC: 2.09% It is certainly a wild ride, and as far as i see it, the Liberal Team did what they needed to do to get us through Covid, and then they did what they needed to do to chop down the inflation that gave rise world wide in the post covid reality. I foresee Liberal numbers getting a bit better just from losing the ties that bound us to the NDP, frankly. I can't wait to see the numbers in two weeks. At this point I am ready to stop blaming boomers and start blaming gen x as numbers have shown that generation is the most unhinged by far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 minutes ago, 24K said: At this point I am ready to stop blaming boomers and start blaming gen x as numbers have shown that generation is the most unhinged by far. I am a little perplexed by the generation that GENX parented. When historians try to trace out where it went off the tracks, I think they will point to the "You didn't lose the race, you were the third winner" parenting style as the main culprit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 11 minutes ago, 24K said: At this point I am ready to stop blaming boomers and start blaming gen x as numbers have shown that generation is the most unhinged by far. Wut? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 29 minutes ago, Optimist Prime said: I am a little perplexed by the generation that GENX parented. When historians try to trace out where it went off the tracks, I think they will point to the "You didn't lose the race, you were the third winner" parenting style as the main culprit. Wth is this coming from My genz kid has either been in school or worked full time since graduating high school, and figured out how to move out with her buddies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris12345 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, Optimist Prime said: Aug 30th numbers on age 60+ which is the cohort most likely to actually vote, historically and a decent barometer of election forecasting; CON: 35.63% (down 5.74% since Aug 16th) LIB: 35.37% (up 4.8% since Aug 16th) NDP: 14.88% (up 2.96% since Aug 16th) GRN: 3.65% (up 0.41% since Aug 16th) I know I am reading this incorrectly so help me out. How can the cons drop 5.74% and all other parties gain 8.17% ? Where does the extra squeeze come from? Edited September 4 by chris12345 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, chris12345 said: I know I am reading this incorrectly so help me out. How can the cons drop 5.74% and all other parties gain 8.17% ? Where does the extra squeeze come from? Bloc? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, aGENT said: Total homes and current real estate inventory =\= i dont understand. i have read that the inventory is getting back to 2019 levels in some areas Is that 'lots of inventory'? Edited September 4 by bishopshodan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 26 minutes ago, Bob Long said: Wth is this coming from My genz kid has either been in school or worked full time since graduating high school, and figured out how to move out with her buddies. I've got a fam full of amazing Gen Z kids too. Now, those millennials, thats a different story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattJVD Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 31 minutes ago, chris12345 said: I know I am reading this incorrectly so help me out. How can the cons drop 5.74% and all other parties gain 8.17% ? Where does the extra squeeze come from? It's percentage of the previous number of poll respondants. If 1,000 people said they were voting Conservative last time and it decreased by 5.74% that would be 57.4 less people saying they indended to vote Conservative. If the poll had 500 people previously saying they were voting NDP and it went up 5.74%, that would only be an increase of 27.2 respondants. The percentages match, but you have another 27.2 respondants unaccounted for. The only time you would have percentages match is if you were starting from equal vote shares. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 hours ago, aGENT said: There's LOTS of inventory. Inventory levels are around 20% higher than the 10-year average. If rates drop another 1% in the next 6 months, which they should with 4 more announcements, then that 20% extra inventory should be eaten up rather quickly. A 5-year fixed rate could be under 4% by year end and 3.5% by Spring, so there will be ALOT more buyers out there buying property. IMO, I expect to see a real busy Spring market next year and price increases anywhere from 5-10%... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 41 minutes ago, bishopshodan said: i dont understand. i have read that the inventory is getting back to 2019 levels in some areas Is that 'lots of inventory'? Inventory levels in August 2024 are lower than they were in August of 2019. Also, inventory levels dropped by over 40% from August 2019 to December 2019. This shows you how quickly inventory levels can be absorbed. Rates at the time were 1.75% for the Bank of Canada rate. So once we get to 2-2.25%, we will see current excess inventory levels get completely wiped out. Could be 6 months to 1 year... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris12345 Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 18 minutes ago, MattJVD said: It's percentage of the previous number of poll respondants. If 1,000 people said they were voting Conservative last time and it decreased by 5.74% that would be 57.4 less people saying they indended to vote Conservative. If the poll had 500 people previously saying they were voting NDP and it went up 5.74%, that would only be an increase of 27.2 respondants. The percentages match, but you have another 27.2 respondants unaccounted for. The only time you would have percentages match is if you were starting from equal vote shares. Beautiful thanks. So a 100% growth rate on $1 is $1. A 2% growth rate on $100m is.$2m. Take your pick. haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 17 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Inventory levels in August 2024 are lower than they were in August of 2019. Also, inventory levels dropped by over 40% from August 2019 to December 2019. This shows you how quickly inventory levels can be absorbed. Rates at the time were 1.75% for the Bank of Canada rate. So once we get to 2-2.25%, we will see current excess inventory levels get completely wiped out. Could be 6 months to 1 year... Thanks Eeeps. - Ok, i was careful to type ' some areas' ( eg,Fraser Valley) The point I was trying to make to Chris123456789 was that if we want to see housing prices drop.. eventually, then we need more inventory. That makes sense, no? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, bishopshodan said: I've got a fam full of amazing Gen Z kids too. I love gen z kids. 1 hour ago, bishopshodan said: Now, those millennials, thats a different story. yep, boomers did a number on them, particularly the ones that had to deal with the first few years of Instagram, I think it messed some of them up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 If that little PP calls Jag 'Sellout Singh' one more time, Jag should omoplata, maybe kimura the fool. But I imagine PP would rather prefer a rear naked choke. I'm talking BJJ techniques here, Jag is a Blackbelt. In fact if it came to fighting, PP probably would probably rank right behind Elizabeth May. But these nicknames that PP uses remind me of someone... I'm telling ya, by the time PP and these Cons are done they'll have us singing the Star Spangled Banner. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 4 minutes ago, bishopshodan said: If that little PP calls Jag 'Sellout Singh' one more time, Jag should omoplata, maybe kimura the fool. But I imagine PP would rather prefer a rear naked choke. I'm talking BJJ techniques here, Jag is a Blackbelt. In fact if it came to fighting, PP probably would probably rank right behind Elizabeth May. But these nicknames that PP uses remind me of someone... I'm telling ya, by the time PP and these Cons are done they'll have us singing the Star Spangled Banner. This is why Trump needs to lose in November. It needs to be shown that treating politics like a reality show can only go so far and, like a reality show, things get stale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24K Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 hours ago, Bob Long said: Wut? Polls Optimist showed shows highest support of PP coming from 50 to 59 group which is gen x. Same with MAGA. Largest support block for Trump is coming from gen x. I think gen x is the most susceptible to social media radicalization. Boomer too old to know how to access tech while millennial and gen z are way more internet literate as they grew up with the tech. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Random thought of the day for me: You know what really sucks right now? Being a centrist. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 3 minutes ago, 24K said: Polls Optimist showed shows highest support of PP coming from 50 to 59 group which is gen x. Same with MAGA. Largest support block for Trump is coming from gen x. I think gen x is the most susceptible to social media radicalization. Boomer too old to know how to access tech while millennial and gen z are way more internet literate as they grew up with the tech. Plenty of morans on both sides of the border. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Long Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 (edited) 20 minutes ago, 24K said: Polls Optimist showed shows highest support of PP coming from 50 to 59 group which is gen x. Same with MAGA. Largest support block for Trump is coming from gen x. I think gen x is the most susceptible to social media radicalization. Boomer too old to know how to access tech while millennial and gen z are way more internet literate as they grew up with the tech. Or... Maybe the left need a better message? Edited September 4 by Bob Long Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, chris12345 said: I know I am reading this incorrectly so help me out. How can the cons drop 5.74% and all other parties gain 8.17% ? Where does the extra squeeze come from? I didn't include the BQ or the PPC and in some cases the Greens and I didn't include "other" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, MattJVD said: It's percentage of the previous number of poll respondants. If 1,000 people said they were voting Conservative last time and it decreased by 5.74% that would be 57.4 less people saying they indended to vote Conservative. If the poll had 500 people previously saying they were voting NDP and it went up 5.74%, that would only be an increase of 27.2 respondants. The percentages match, but you have another 27.2 respondants unaccounted for. The only time you would have percentages match is if you were starting from equal vote shares. Nah, I just left off the bq and in some lines the Greens too and 'other'. If the CONS are only down 5% of their previous support levels that wouldn't be much to write about: they are down from a previous support of 41.37 at the stated time to the most recent amount of support at 35.63%, a difference of 5.74. I guess i messed up trying to be simple. hahaha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 hour ago, bishopshodan said: I'm talking BJJ techniques here, Jag is a Blackbelt. I've only ever had a BJ before, not a BJJ...what's the extra J for?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimist Prime Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 hehe, scrolled on through my feed but had to stop and copy this for here....lmao 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 15 minutes ago, aGENT said: I've only ever had a BJ before, not a BJJ...what's the extra J for?! Jollyrancher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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