Winners and Losers in Free Agency

[JamesB]

After the first day of free agency (with 190 signings worth over $1.2 billion), lots of "winners and losers" articles have started to appear. 

 

I am starting this thread for two reasons.

 

1. I would be very interested in how people see the winners and losers and how they think the Canucks did. 

 

2. I want to express a pet peeve. Every year many pundits pick the teams that made the biggest splash -- signing high profile UFAs -- as the "winners". Usually those teams are the losers, not the winners. This year a lot of pundits are talking about Nashville as the winner. (See, for example, Free agency winners and losers: Predators go all-in, Hurricanes strike out (sportsnet.ca)

 

I think this is exactly wrong. Nashville is the biggest loser.

 

Start with Stamkos -- signed for 4 years with an AAV of 8 million. Stamkos was a great player in his prime. He is well past his prime now. He had 81 points last year in 79 games, which looks good. But it is misleading. He has lost a step and has become a defensive liability. He is still very good on the PP and had 39 PP points last season. But that means he had only 42 points in other situations -- not bad, but not 8 million good. His plus\minus was -21 despite playing on a good team and getting favorable deployment (lots more o-zone starts than d-zone starts). Performance aggregators like Evolving Hockey have him as a below replacement level player defensively. 

 

Almost all forwards decline significantly in their mid-30s. In fact, very few forwards can play effectively in their mid-30s at all and most retire in their early to mid 30s. There are a few who can play well into their late 30s, but they are exceptions, and even they play well below their peak level. Next year, Stamkos will likely still be valuable as a PP specialist who can provide an offensive threat when needed, but he will need to be protected defensively. After that who knows. 

 

Their other big signings are Marchessault (age 33, 5 years at an AAV of 5.5), Skjei (age 30, 7 x 7), and re-signing Saros (age 28, contract kicks in a year down the road for 8 years at almost 8 million AAV). Those contracts are all likely to age badly. And even Carrier is no bargain at 3.75.  Nashville might be pretty good next year, but they are already an old team and are likely to struggle after that. 

 

Often the teams that do less are the "winners".

 

3. That said, I love what the Canucks did. They wisely abandoned the big ticket possibilities and went after value. Based on analytics, the Canucks signings are generally good value and the overall strategy makes sense. Also, the Canucks targeted players who are likely to improve in the Canuck system and who fit the Tocchet model. 

[Bob Long]

I think we got sneaky better in the F group. Looking at the new line combos, we have a pain in the butt player on each line, and we've likely done a good job increasing secondary scoring. We're also faster and grittier. 

 

On d, we didn't take a step back in play (depends on if you think Z was actually a deterrent) but it's a bit of an experiment. If Foote can do with Vinnie what he did with Myers it could be really fun. 

 

 

[AlexanderM]

Will have to see it on the ice.

[Shekky]

with limited cap space PA and JR made this team Grittier and Harder to play against depending on how the defense plays its not going to be quite the same on d it could be worse or it could get better no idea Penalty Kill will be even better next season I think. Really hoping Desharnais really hits a new level with the coaching staff. Vancouver needs a puck mover in the bottom 4 but we'll see how the coaching staff handles the bottom 4

Edited July 2 by Shekky

[boziffous]

Canucks didn't make "sexy" moves but they added speed and tenacity up front and added more size on the back. All the moves helped make the Canucks harder to play against.

 

If you watch videos of DeBrusk he's got good speed and scores most of his goals from in close. DeBrusk driving the net is gonna open up more room for his linemates to make plays and get shots off. DeBrusk's net front presence should help on the PP as well.

 

I really like the signing of Sherwood. Great skater with a good motor that likes to hit. I saw something that another member here posted and it mentioned that Quinn Hughes seemed the most excited about the Sherwood signing and about how Sherwood had "pissed off" the Canucks in the playoffs with his style of play.

 

Forbort and Desharnais will help on the PK. DeBrusk and Heinen can both contribute to the PK too. Sherwood hasn't had much experience on the PK, but I think he will get a shot to help out on the PK as well.

 

 

[Junkyard Dog]

Canucks did well with the cap they had. 
 

Only real gamble is Desharnais but it isn’t a huge one. 
 

I give them a tentative B. Could be higher or worse depending how the season goes in regards of how we addressed the issues we tried to fix. 

[swimmer]

I think they did well with the resources they had. And the lineup we see now will probably not be the same one after Christmas.

[ngoway]

I very much like the approach management took. I am sad that we couldn't bring Lindholm and Zadorov back, but I'm also glad management was firm and didn't sacrifice the overall team picture just to bring them back.

 

Our forward group is much deeper and I'm glad that Pettersson finally has a winger in Debrusk. I'm confident our coaches can help Debrusk find some more consistency, as it sounds like when he's on, he's on and is a legitimate top 6 forward.

 

Our defense overall is deeper with bottom pairing options, but we're still missing that true D who can carry that second pairing. All this to say that I see the Canucks as one of the winners. I'm confident this will show in the season as long as the team is able to gel. 

[R3aL]

9 hours ago, JamesB said:

After the first day of free agency (with 190 signings worth over $1.2 billion), lots of "winners and losers" articles have started to appear. 

 

I am starting this thread for two reasons.

 

1. I would be very interested in how people see the winners and losers and how they think the Canucks did. 

 

2. I want to express a pet peeve. Every year many pundits pick the teams that made the biggest splash -- signing high profile UFAs -- as the "winners". Usually those teams are the losers, not the winners. This year a lot of pundits are talking about Nashville as the winner. (See, for example, Free agency winners and losers: Predators go all-in, Hurricanes strike out (sportsnet.ca)

 

I think this is exactly wrong. Nashville is the biggest loser.

 

Start with Stamkos -- signed for 4 years with an AAV of 8 million. Stamkos was a great player in his prime. He is well past his prime now. He had 81 points last year in 79 games, which looks good. But it is misleading. He has lost a step and has become a defensive liability. He is still very good on the PP and had 39 PP points last season. But that means he had only 42 points in other situations -- not bad, but not 8 million good. His plus\minus was -21 despite playing on a good team and getting favorable deployment (lots more o-zone starts than d-zone starts). Performance aggregators like Evolving Hockey have him as a below replacement level player defensively. 

 

Almost all forwards decline significantly in their mid-30s. In fact, very few forwards can play effectively in their mid-30s at all and most retire in their early to mid 30s. There are a few who can play well into their late 30s, but they are exceptions, and even they play well below their peak level. Next year, Stamkos will likely still be valuable as a PP specialist who can provide an offensive threat when needed, but he will need to be protected defensively. After that who knows. 

 

Their other big signings are Marchessault (age 33, 5 years at an AAV of 5.5), Skjei (age 30, 7 x 7), and re-signing Saros (age 28, contract kicks in a year down the road for 8 years at almost 8 million AAV). Those contracts are all likely to age badly. And even Carrier is no bargain at 3.75.  Nashville might be pretty good next year, but they are already an old team and are likely to struggle after that. 

 

Often the teams that do less are the "winners".

 

3. That said, I love what the Canucks did. They wisely abandoned the big ticket possibilities and went after value. Based on analytics, the Canucks signings are generally good value and the overall strategy makes sense. Also, the Canucks targeted players who are likely to improve in the Canuck system and who fit the Tocchet model. 

 

I think we slam dunked it to be frank.

 

Out of all the UFA forwards available to us on July 1st 

 

Jake Debrusk fit not only our needs best, but he will be able to provide market or surplus value for the duration of the contract, something that cant be said about the rest of the free agents signed at the top of the free agent class.

 

And out of all the forwards in his tier it was: Bertuzzi / Toffoli / Teurvo

 

I think Debrusk fits our style / system needs better than all three.

 

He brings:

 

- Speed

- Forechecking

- a B and a C game now when hes not scoring in bunches

- the ability to score

- Pker

- PP Fit (left hand, can play net front and bumper for us)

- Consistent Playoff performer

- strong analytics

- even strength scorer

 

I think the Bruins pushed this kid to become one heck of a player and they are departing with him at the wrong time. 

 

I also think hes going to do serious damage now on our team being in a top 6 role with a 100pt C. As both of our C options make their line mates better and are playmakers. 

 

He’s also going to get the best PP opportunity of his career which will really give his numbers a boost.

 

I think the fit with Tocchet and the staff will be superb and Boston will be sad they lost him.

 

-

 

I think every single Free agent Forward we signed bring intangibles to our group we need/want.

 

Most importantly all three can play both wings, all three can PK, all three are fast, all three are strong forecheckers and all three players are also defensively responsible.

 

Sherwood was top 15 in the league in hits, he was able to forecheck Hughes better than anyone has, ever and he also has a sneaky good shot that is going to earn him some elevated opportunities in the line up and on PP2. Tocchet most likely is going to love this kid.

 

Heinen I have wanted to acquire for awhile and I love his addition. To me he is everything we wanted Mikehyev to be at half the price. 

 

I love how all three players fit our identity and give so much flexibility to the coaching staff for mixing things up and finding g combos and matchups.

 

We could even see a top 9 at times of:

 

Sherwood-Petey-Debrusk 

Heinen-Miller-Boeser

Joshua-Blueger/Suter-Garland

 

And run a Hoglander fourth line again if hes struggling or not fitting in the top 6 again due to his playmaking or ability to sustain his F1 energy required.

 

But having the ability to move Sherwood/Heinen/Joshua/Hogander around the line up based on injuries/matchups/energy is really awesome.

 

I wont be surprised to see Joshua get time in the top 6 too.

 

And our pp2 unit should be pretty interesting with a mix of:

 

Garland

Sherwood

Joshua

Suter

Heinen

Hoglander 

 

Hronek

 

Especially since Debrusk can go LW or RW and if JL is just smashing it unexpectedly and they want to give him a top 6 showing you can go: Debrusk-Petey-JL

 

-

 

If we overpaid for Marshy or Toffoli it would have complicated our boeser extension and not helped our pp the same way debrusk will with him being left handed.

 

-

 

We also have Pking forward options of:

 

Blueger

 

Heinen

Joshua

Debrusk

Sherwood

 

And Miller and Petey

 

-

 

Of course losing lindholm will hurt our RH face-offs at big points in games situationally or on the PK with Teddy and also his impact he had on the PK1 unit. We do lack a RHC and our back end mobility although MASSIVE that will be my real only roster question mark.

 

Will we split Hughes and Hronek? Will Forbort and Soucy stay Healthy? Will Vinnie Desharnais take a Step like they are projecting under our coaching and system? Will our back end especially our bottom pairing be too slow or can it work in the system with the extra speed up front?

 

-

 

The fact we left July 1st bigger, faster and added a guy who could legitimately be a 30+ goal scorer who's not a soft perimeter player an we will have him for his remaining prime years and we didn't overpay on the AAV I think its nothing short of a slam dunk.

 

I am very pleased. And I 10000% agree with you on your Nashville take. I think they did upgrade their def at a big price and the forwards as flashy of adds as they are they are at the end of their bell curves age wise and their declines are going to be swift in the coming years. I do not expect their deals to age well and it may not even work out the way they hope next year.

 

They signed two disgruntled 40+ goal scorers that their markets didn't want to keep at the price they wanted.

 

Stamkos is a PP guy primarily now IMO as well.

 

-

 

My only part I disagree with you on is Carrier I really like him and I would have been happy with that contract for us.

 

Hughes-Carrier/Hronek

Soucy-Hronek/Carrier

Forbort-Myers

 

Would have excited me as I think Carrier can play a tough game for his size and still move the puck well like a higher end Ethan bear. So I think he woulda fit situationally with Hughes and let us split Hronek up a lot easier. Hes also a dman I think could have thrived in our system with our coaching staff. But he was 7 inches too short from being. legit target maybe haha.

 

A carrier or a Marino would have given our pairings a lot more flexibility and puck moving, oh well we have gone big and beefy and we have some space to make in season adjustments.

 

Proud to be a canuck and really enjoy how our team is managed top to bottom now.

 

 

 

Edited July 3 by R3aL

[Canuck You]

We won for sure..Didn't sign dumb long-term contracts expiring with players getting close to 40.

 

Made our team irritating as heck to play.

 

We will have leverage with the shorter term contracts where teams will be stuck committed to shitty long-term contracts trying to off-load in the next few yrs.

[cripplereh]

I really think this team needs another 25-30 goal scorer.

 

Best thing is to trade for one players like Hogs,Podz, Karlsson,Bains and picks.

 

Another problem is staying under the cap.

[R3aL]

4 hours ago, cripplereh said:

I really think this team needs another 25-30 goal scorer.

 

Best thing is to trade for one players like Hogs,Podz, Karlsson,Bains and picks.

 

Another problem is staying under the cap.

I mean we have 4 guys with that capability + now with Debrusk:

 

Boeser: 30-40

Petey: 35+

Miller: 35+

Debrusk: 20-40

Joshua: 15-25

Garland: 15-25

Hoglander: 15-20+

Heinen: 15-20

Sherwood: 10-15

Suter: 10-15

Blueger: 5-10

 

Hughes: 20

Hronek: 5-10

 

Myers: 5

Soucy: 5

 

Bottom pairing and depth guys combined: 15-25

 

Lower end projection: 255 total goals

 

Maybe its bullish of me to expect minim 35 from each Miller and Petey but I do. And I also expect Q to get or get close to 20 next year. But its a pretty conservative projection otherwise.

 

Especially considering the amount of functional speed we've added to the lineup and the system changes toc has hinted to to increase offensive opportunities I think we are going to be a really fun team to watch next year.

 

Not to mention our PP shouldn't drop off a cliff like it did as long as Petey doesn't disappear with a case of knee tendonitis again and jake does fit in.

 

 

Edited July 3 by R3aL
I

[DrJockitch]

Nashville was a very well coached team and tough to play against. They just lacked scoring.

If they can stay healthy they can take a run. Given Saros and Josi they have a good team. 
 

 

[Blitz-Pix]

40 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Nashville was a very well coached team and tough to play against. They just lacked scoring.

If they can stay healthy they can take a run. Given Saros and Josi they have a good team. 
 

 

 

They definitely got some quality pieces, a little long in the tooth though and not sure if they'll mesh together well. They will be an interesting team to keep an eye on.

 

As much as I hate to admit it, I think Edmonton got much better and added even more scoring depth in Skinner, Arvidsson and bringing back Henrique.

They're also $2.5 million over the CAP and still have 2 RFA's to sign. (Holloway & Broberg). Think they'll look at dumping Kane (with a sweetner) on someone

like Anaheim who is currently below the CAP floor.

 

Colorado also looks like they are in CAP hell as well, (Ya baby. LOL) so should be interesting to see what shakes out before training camp.

 

The Washington Capitals are currently $13.3 million over the CAP limit...don't even now how that's possible.

I thought you could only exceed the CAP by 10% in the offseason.   

 

Looking like Anaheim could be the new (Arizona) dumping ground for bad contracts. 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 3 by Blitz-Pix

[ngoway]

Can't really stand Steve Dangle, but saw  this video.

 

You know they're good signings when a Toronto biased podcast/channel can't really say any bad things. Plus they've gotten a good look at Debrusk, Heinen, and Forbort and it's good that they're happy they're out of their conference.

[Blitz-Pix]

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

Up front we'll be more pain in the butt for the opposition, grittier, and faster. 

Will have to wait and see what happens between now and regular season if there are moves to be made on D  

[Wing]

7 minutes ago, ngoway said:

Can't really stand Steve Dangle, but saw  this video.

 

You know they're good signings when a Toronto biased podcast/channel can't really say any bad things. Plus they've gotten a good look at Debrusk, Heinen, and Forbort and it's good that they're happy they're out of their conference.

I actually don't mind him. He's obviously leaf biased but at least he doesn't hide that and pretend to be neutral (okay I admit I find his meltdowns entertaining and might have felt a little sorry for him). This is also one of the podcasts that don't mind talking about sensitive topics that others would choose to avoid (ex. Rick Westhead was invited on their show a few times). His co-hosts Adam Wylde was cheering for Canucks against Preds and Jesse Blake was the only one who predicted Canucks to be one of the top in the division before the season started. They sometimes have weird takes but their show is generally entertaining.

 

To your point, yes I think almost everyone in the media agree Canucks had a pretty successful free agency day. 

[R3aL]

45 minutes ago, Blitz-Pix said:

is that the math for real

[BC_Hawk]

49 minutes ago, Blitz-Pix said:

They have 3.9m in cap space and 19 players signed without taking into account LTIR nor whatever Nich will be. Pretty easy to get to 23 in that scenario. Frank is just trying to be a fan boy on the mess they have Edm in the next couple years.

[Coconuts]

I thought Nashville did pretty well, I get that their moves may not age well but I respect them for going for it while Saros, Josi, and Forsberg are still capable of high end hockey. Amongst others such as O'Reilly. 

 

They'll pay for it later, certainly, but I can see the argument that half measures won't get them anywhere right now too. 

 

I think Tampa looks weaker, they'd have been better off keeping Sergachev and just signing Stamkos imo. Bringing McDonagh back may have also been a mistake. Seems like they're trying to fight the inevitable. 

 

I thought the Leafs did alright, they actually addressed their defense. I think they'll ultimately be judged by what happens with Marner though. 

 

Caps made some very savvy moves, they somehow managed to upgrade their forward group, defense, and goaltending without giving up a whole lot in terms of assets. Could be a legit playoff team next season.

 

Vegas looks weaker, but good teams bleed talent sooner or later. This also applies to Carolina, they whiffed on Guentzel and bled talent up front and on the back end. 

 

Edmonton's forward depth actually looks quite dangerous now, whether their D and tending can get them back to another final is anyone's guess. 

 

Not sure what the hell Ottawa and Detroit were doing. 

 

Avs didn't have much flex, they lost some talent but did well to retain Drouin. 

 

Stars made some questionable moves imo, LA too. 

 

Chicago surprised me, they actually added some solid talent up front. 

 

Jersey looks poised to be one of the better eastern teams again, I like what they've done.

 

Florida bled quite a bit of talent but their core is still talented, but they won the cup so any success in the near future is gravy.

 

Rangers seem to be hamstrung by not being able to figure out the Trouba problem, I think they'd have liked to have done more.

 

Winnipeg largely standing pat was probably for the best imo. Did well to retain Demelo.

 

Those Seattle deals might not age well but they may get them back to the playoffs next season. Montour may age alright, Stephenson.. I dunno.

 

I thought Utah would do more tbh, Anaheim too.

 

Calgary's done well to add some competitive pieces as they continue their rebuild. 

 

I thought the Canucks did really well considering their limited cap space, not a whole lot of commitment to anyone not named DeBrusk. Glad we didn't land Guentzel, okay with not having gotten Zadorov. I'd like us to add another top 4D or top six winger if possible. Most of the deals we signed will expire sooner than later, which buys us some guys like Willander, Raty, and Lekkerimaki more development time. 

 

 

[24K]

We improved our floor but probably didn't improve our ceiling much. 

 

Only issue is we did not keep up with the Oilers. We better hope Demko is the difference that can bridge the gap. 

[Pears]

12 minutes ago, 24K said:

We improved our floor but probably didn't improve our ceiling much. 

 

Only issue is we did not keep up with the Oilers. We better hope Demko is the difference that can bridge the gap. 

I disagree. All they did was add small one dimensional defensive liabilities while we added strong two-way players who can skate and hit and have offensive upside. 

[Cromeslab]

We killed it imo lots of peices nothing too hard to move.If DeBrusk can Gell with Petey,money

[wai_lai416]

2 hours ago, R3aL said:

I mean we have 4 goals with that capability + now with Debrusk:

 

Boeser: 30-40

Petey: 35+

Miller: 35+

Debrusk: 20-40

Joshua: 15-25

Garland: 15-25

Hoglander: 15-20+

Heinen: 15-20

Sherwood: 10-15

Suter: 10-15

Blueger: 5-10

 

Hughes: 20

Hronek: 5-10

 

Myers: 5

Soucy: 5

 

Bottom pairing and depth guys combined: 15-25

 

Lowed end projection: 255 total goals

 

Maybe its bullish of me to expect minim 35 form each Miller and Petey but I do. And I also expect Q to get or get close to 20 next year. But its a pretty conservative projection otherwise.

 

Especially considering the amount of functional speed we've added to the lineup and the system changes toc has hinted to to increase offensive opportunities I think we are going to be a really fun team to watch next year.

 

Not to mention our PP shouldn't drop off a cliff like it did as long as Petey doesn't disappear with a case of knee tendonitis again and jake does fit in.

 

 

unpopular take i think EP is going to be around the 20 goal mark... you can rip me all you want for being negative.. EP had 7 goals since the all star break 3 of them are from the PP.. you almost have to be blind and oblivous to see there's no one he's playing with is setting him up 5v5 ever since kuzmenko is gone.. debrusk sure is a nice 40-50 point guy that can score 20-25 goals consistently.. but he just like hoglander.. don't really have the playmaking ability.. that's why i was desperate for a guentzel.. because he can score and he can setup.. i'm lookinag at the likely debrusk ep hoglander line and i just don't see where EP will get his goals from we already saw the lack of offensive awareness from hoglander in the playoff when he turns back multiple time instead of passing it to a wide open streaking ep..

Edited July 3 by wai_lai416