[proposal] - The Vancouver Canucks need a Top Pairing RD on a short-term contract before Willander is ready to step-up [don't make any moves right now]

[Jeremy Hronek]

In my opinion, the current Canucks are actually pretty close to being a Top 12 calibre team IF they get another top Pairing RD

 

Ideally, it would be on a short-term contract since we already have Willander in our system.

 

Here is how I see our current roster under 100% full health.

 

Kuzmenko-Pettersson-Beauvillier

Mikheyev-Miller-Boeser

PDG-Suter-Garland

Podkolzin-Bluegar-Hoglander

 

Aman

 

Hughes-??? 

Soucy-Hronek

Hirose-Cole 

 

Wolanin

 

Demko

DeSmith

 

So looking at my above line-up, you might be asking yourself (or me I guess) two questions:

 

1) Why do you have a ??? beside Hughes?

2) Why isn't Tyler Myers in your line-up?

 

1. I've put a "????" beside Hughes because I don't think anyone currently on our team is worthy of playing on the top pairing with Hughes IF we want to be a competitive team. Soucy, god bless him, is a solid defenseman, but should be playing as a #4 on a good team. Therefore, I think Soucy-Hronek would make for a very strong second pairing.  Same thing with Cole. Cole should be playing as a #5 on a good team. As it currently stands right now, both Cole and Soucy will be slated to play higher than they should.....and this is with a fully healthy defense!   And as we all know, no defense is 100% healthy most of the time...meaning that even more defensemen on the Canucks could be playing higher than they should.

 

2. In a perfect world, we would simply wait for Myers' contract to expire at season's end and then go after another UFA to make more efficient use of that extra cap, but the truth of the matter is that the Canucks need to take a significant step this season given management's plan and what's in front of them.  Pettersson has already more or less stated that he'll make a decision about his long term future here after this season. On top of that, not only are guys like Beauvillier and Hronek RFA's at seasons' end, but guys like Kuzmenko and Demko are only signed for 2-3 more years respectively.  Peak Miller probably only has around 3 seasons left as well.  So basically, given management's plan, we basically need to start being fairly aggressive with our short term moves.  

 

Since we have Tom Willander in our system already (a guy who has a reasonable shot of being a top pairing RD in 1-2 seasons), my solution is that we target a top pairing RD that has one year left.   I think the Canucks should trade for Matt Dumba, and then let Dumba walk at the end of the season (to which we then sign Chris Tanev).  Tanev then plays with Hughes on the top pairing until Willander is ready to take the reigns.  Tanev then becomes what Cole (should be) to us right now and moves down to the 3rd pairing to help anchor that pairing.  

 

So,

 

Step 1:   2023/2024 season:   Trade Myers + ??? to Arizona for Matt Dumba

Step 2:   2024 off-season:  Let Matt Dumba walk and then sign Chris Tanev

Step 3:   At some point in the future:   Willander replaces Tanev on the top pairing with Hughes, to which Tanev moves down to the 3rd pairing.

 

Why not just trade for Chris Tanev right now?

 

1. Although inter-divisional trades are not impossible, they are extremely rare......and we are not 100% certain if Calgary wants to rebuild just yet.  

2. Tanev will probably be expensive to acquire.  Better to just wait for the off-season

3. Unlike Calgary, AZ is basically a non-rival team and are looking for future pieces.  Myers + A future piece might make sense for AZ.

 

Updated post:  

 

Another idea that I have is for Seth Jones.  Yes, I am aware of Seth Jones' warts.  He'll be turning 29 in a few weeks and his AAV is $9.5 million. The guy gets paid like an elite franchise defenseman and yet he is probably closer to being a #2 defenseman on a good team.  I get all that.  BUT.....given all of that, his acquisition cost would very likely be much lower than someone like.......say.......Dahlin or Devon Toews per se.  Or a Brett Pesce (all three teams by the way which are competitive teams and will not be looking to sell off pieces for futures).  

 

In other words, Seth Jones could realistically be had in my opinion if Seth Jones would be willing to waive his NTC/NMC.  

 

Hughes-S.Jones

Soucy-Hronek

Hirose-Cole

 

That's pretty good no?   Jones plays here until he's 35 and then a hopefully elite Willander takes over the reigns from Jones at that time (to play with what would hopefully be a re-signed Quinn Hughes).  

 

Updated post #2:  

 

Another idea that I had was the following:

 

1) Trade Andrei Kuzmenko for a #2A or #3 calibre defenseman that can play with Hughes.

 

2) With Kuzmenko gone, take a calculated gamble on guys like Garland, Hoglander, Beauvillier, etc., "stepping up" with more responsibilities and ice-time.  

 

Now obviously, it's not ideal to move Kuzmenko but lets face facts:

 

-Guys like Garland, Boeser, and Beauvillier aren't going to fetch you a right-handed defenseman that wouldn't look out of place on a top pairing.  

 

-The Canucks are in no position to be moving prospects and/or draft picks to land a short-term piece.  

 

Update:  

 

-Islanders need scoring and could probably use better wingers than Palmieri and Engvall.    

-Pulock (6.1 million cap hit) has been replaced by Dobson as the Top RD.

-Kuzmenko for Pulock would make sense would it not?   

 

Update:  

 

-Kuzmenko to Calgary for Rasmus Anderson?  

Edited October 29, 2023 by Jeremy Hronek
Seth Jones proposal implementation

[canucks curse]

agree, need top pairing d man for this team to really have a solid shot

 

JR when he spoke nailed it, if everything goes pretty well they are a playoff team.

 

Dumba makes sense even for PHX to move for a gig like Myers who is owed way less and has similar TDL value

but I would maybe go bigger - Dhillon, Pionk, Morrissey, JJ Moser...

[DeltaSwede]

All things considered, I think an answer to that will first be found in FA next off-season. Vancouver have moved a lot of picks over the years and would benefit from slowing down that spend as a way to solve roster issues. We can't keep going back to the cookie jar. 

 

A lot of things will happen between now and then so it's hard to say where the team will be at cap and personnel wise. Is Cole a realistic option past this year? He's probably gone a long with Myers. Not only will they both have to be replaced, the team could really use another two top-4 D already so it very much is in a building phase.  

Pesce in FA makes too much sense right.. 3-4 year deal. If they got enough space for another LHD and to then bump Soucy down to the 3rd pair they'll have a very capable and playoff calibre d-core.

 

If Soucy shows he can be a top 4 this year, even better - crucial to get >3mil value out of Soucy to alleviate the burden of the OEL buyout penalty over the coming years.

They'll have to be creative and explore all options. It feels good to have enough confidence in management to feel like they will find a good solution. Wasn't like that with JB.  

 

 

[Nucker67]

It's been the one needed position since Hughes was drafted. They still haven't fixed that problem, but they made a good start by drafting Willander. 

 

The older management regimes would probably find a bandaid to fill in for 2-3 years, but not this management group. They'll make a trade to bring that player in. It will cost, but it is what it is. JR/PA don't seem afraid to make a big move.  

[-AJ-]

Honestly, counting on Willander to become the 1RD is a gamble. Even more is assuming a short term deal will be enough time for him to become that player. Even if he becomes that good, it's likely he doesn't make the NHL until at least 20 or 21 and even then, it would likely take until 22 to 24 to hit his potential. Even if he becomes that player, it's probably at least four years away.

[Jeremy Hronek]

24 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

Honestly, counting on Willander to become the 1RD is a gamble. Even more is assuming a short term deal will be enough time for him to become that player. Even if he becomes that good, it's likely he doesn't make the NHL until at least 20 or 21 and even then, it would likely take until 22 to 24 to hit his potential. Even if he becomes that player, it's probably at least four years away.

 

You might be right here.

 

If that's the case, then I would strongly consider making an even more aggressive pitch to bring in a Top pairing D.......like a Brett Pesce or a Devon Toews.  Normally, I would just say, "Be patient and continue to fill the pipeline," but this management group has made it pretty clear that they're trying to be competitive now (with their Hronek and Beauvillier trades, along with their UFA signings).   To complicate matters, this whole plan was implemented with Pettersson in mind and so the Canucks literally do need to take a significant step this season so that Pettersson wants to stay long term.  This plan is royally screwed if Petey pulls a Matt Tkachuk.  That, combined with the fact that Demko, Kuzmenko, Boeser, and "prime" Miller have 3 years or less left.

[Phil_314]

I think Myers may want to go to Arizona (and not include him in his 10 team NTC list due to their desire to start competing) but I'm not sure Dumba's the guy to pair with Hughes.  I do like the suggestion of essentially cap dumping Myers to save $2 million and potentially improve the D, but if we're lining up the roster as you're suggesting then Matt's not the guy IMO, especially if Petey's decision to re-sign (or not) potentially hinges on our success this year, in which case we really should stabilize Quinn's pair.  I'd rather flip Myers to Nashville for Fabbro or Carrier (both are younger RD with only 1 season left and $2.5 million cap hit and better defensively) and if they want to flip Barrie elsewhere Myers could step in as his top-4 D replacement for the season.  He probably wouldn't want to go to Anaheim or San Jose, but Lyubushkin and Rutta would be pending UFA candidates (Rutta with 2 years isn't too bad, he's only at $2.75 million a season) that I'd check in for also. 

[Bobby James]

I think the plan makes sense -> Hughes needs a partner right now until someone in our system or future draft can step into that role. 

 

I'm not sure Dumba is the right answer. Most accounts about his play hasn't been great and Quinn really needs a solid defensive focused guy next to him. Tanev is a great choice, but I agree with you that signing him might be too tough right now. 

 

Saying all that if Tanev wants to come back on like a 2-3 year deal for around 3 million or less then sure go with whoever for a year then bring him back to Van. I wouldn't be surprised if Calgary will want to offer him the same thing themselves and keep him around for a few more years while competitive. So if we can pull in Dumba for a year for Meyers + like a 6th round pick then sure make the move. 

 

Other options that could be worth looking into and give Canucks a little term are:

-> Peeke from Columbus (it has been brought up on the boards lots before). Columbus added a bunch of D and Peeke is looking like he'll play 3rd pairing if that. Maybe someone like Garland or Beau will be interesting to them so they can add to their forward group. Or even send back Meyers retained + add a B level prospect. 

-> Murphy out of Chicago? Big body, supposedly decent and signed for a bit more. Chicago is rebuilding so I'm sure they are open to trading. Not sure how high of a pick they'd want. 1st I'd likely not do it, but Meyers + a 2nd round pick + Rathbone or something along those lines then that'd be interesting. 

[Snoop Hogg]

We have plenty of cheap options we can try before having to do something so drastic. I heard McWard’s name being tossed around and I think that’s an excellent idea. 

[King Heffy]

Dumba is even more of a defensive liability than Myers.  You're in trouble if he's in your lineup, let alone the top pairing.

[Jeremy Hronek]

19 hours ago, King Heffy said:

Dumba is even more of a defensive liability than Myers.  You're in trouble if he's in your lineup, let alone the top pairing.

 

Good point and I'll admit that I didn't know that Dumba had fallen off this much.  

 

One thing going for Dumba however is that it's his contract year and so he'll definitely be playing for something.  In recent years, we've seen how guys like Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie, and even Bo Horvat elevated their games with the hopes of getting a big pay day (and then falling back down to earth afterwards).    

 

Having said that, I think I'm inclined to agree with you here. 

[King Heffy]

8 minutes ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

 

Good point and I'll admit that I didn't know that Dumba had fallen off this much.  

 

One thing going for Dumba however is that it's his contract year and so he'll definitely be playing for something.  In recent years, we've seen how guys like Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie, and even Bo Horvat elevated their games with the hopes of getting a big pay day (and then falling back down to earth afterwards).    

 

Having said that, I think I'm inclined to agree with you here. 

It was a contact year for him last year and he showed that he does not belong in the NHL.

[Jeremy Hronek]

On 9/28/2023 at 5:28 AM, Snoop Hogg said:

We have plenty of cheap options we can try before having to do something so drastic. I heard McWard’s name being tossed around and I think that’s an excellent idea. 

 

McWard is a good future piece but he's likely a #6 at best for this coming season.  No way a guy like McWard should be playing on a top pairing with Hughes right now.

[Jeremy Hronek]

On 9/27/2023 at 11:07 PM, -AJ- said:

Honestly, counting on Willander to become the 1RD is a gamble. Even more is assuming a short term deal will be enough time for him to become that player. Even if he becomes that good, it's likely he doesn't make the NHL until at least 20 or 21 and even then, it would likely take until 22 to 24 to hit his potential. Even if he becomes that player, it's probably at least four years away.

 

In that case, maybe making a move for Seth Jones makes sense?  (assuming of course that he'd be willing to waive his NTC/NMC).  Yes, Jones is a #2 calibre defenseman that gets paid like a franchise d-man at $9.5 million AAV.  Yes Jones will be turning 30 in a few weeks. But.....

 

1) That cap will be more palpable as the salary cap continues to increase.

2) Given the "warts" of Seth Jones' contract relative to his value, he could, at least in theory, be much easier to acquire than someone like Devon Toews, Brett Pesce, or Rasmus Dahlin.  

3) Seth Jones' underlying numbers were actually pretty good last year once Chicago's coaching staff moved Jones away from Jack Johnson.  

 

Myers, Hoglander, and a 1st? (or instead of a first, Chicago might ask for Tom Willander because they'll need someone to get the puck to Bedard from the back-end in the future).  

 

In terms of your timeline for Willander (i.e. possibly becoming elite 5 years from now), Seth Jones' timeline would likely fill that gap [or if Canucks move Willander as part of that package, then we'd have to keep drafting and developing obviously.  

Edited September 29, 2023 by Jeremy Hronek

[-AJ-]

34 minutes ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

 

In that case, maybe making a move for Seth Jones makes sense?  (assuming of course that he'd be willing to waive his NTC/NMC).  Yes, Jones is a #2 calibre defenseman that gets paid like a franchise d-man at $9.5 million AAV.  Yes Jones will be turning 30 in a few weeks. But.....

 

1) That cap will be more palpable as the salary cap continues to increase.

2) Given the "warts" of Seth Jones' contract relative to his value, he could, at least in theory, be much easier to acquire than someone like Devon Toews, Brett Pesce, or Rasmus Dahlin.  

3) Seth Jones' underlying numbers were actually pretty good last year once Chicago's coaching staff moved Jones away from Jack Johnson.  

 

Myers, Hoglander, and a 1st? (or instead of a first, Chicago might ask for Tom Willander because they'll need someone to get the puck to Bedard from the back-end in the future).  

 

In terms of your timeline for Willander (i.e. possibly becoming elite 5 years from now), Seth Jones' timeline would likely fill that gap [or if Canucks move Willander as part of that package, then we'd have to keep drafting and developing obviously.  

 

Not sure how I feel about taking on that contract. That said, I am of the unpopular opinion that he's probably underrated due to how much flack he gets due to his contract. Still, that kind of massive money for a #2/3 level guy could hit the rest of the team's cap management really hard.

[Jeremy Hronek]

4 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

 

Not sure how I feel about taking on that contract. That said, I am of the unpopular opinion that he's probably underrated due to how much flack he gets due to his contract. Still, that kind of massive money for a #2/3 level guy could hit the rest of the team's cap management really hard.

 

It would be a risk for sure but the Canucks have pretty much tied their fate to Pete's happiness and so we pretty much need to take a significant step this year......otherwise Petey may not sign here long term.  Boeser's cap hit will come off the books in two seasons and so that should help us substantially, but yeah, other than that, I'll have to admit that I haven't studied our cap situation in too much depth.  The Canucks will need to give long term deals to both Pettersson and Hronek and so perhaps Myers' contract falling off the books is a huge part of that plan.  

Edited September 29, 2023 by Jeremy Hronek

[NucksRuleYou]

Jones is turning 29, not 30.

[Jeremy Hronek]

21 minutes ago, NucksRuleYou said:

Jones is turning 29, not 30.

You're right my mistake.

 

So that's even better for us if we were to trade for him.  His contract will also expire at the age of 35 instead of like 37/38.....which would likely mean that we'd probably only get one year of "past his prime" Jones if we were to make such a trade.

[puckstopper]

No thanks! Who's been Huggy bear's most reliable partners in his short tenure here? Tanev and Shenn?

They were veteran defense first types really. Stick to what's been working so far. Maybe if we weren't 

living from cap to cap, we'd think about it.

 

Besides, Chicago isn't going to let him go anyway. They need him to support Connor at this moment.

What else do they really have in their D-corps to help in that way?

[aGENT]

On 9/27/2023 at 3:30 AM, Jeremy Hronek said:

Another idea that I have is for Seth Jones.

 

[Jeremy Hronek]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

 

 

Agreed.  I also realized that it wouldn't work from a long term cap perspective anyways due to the cap penalty involved with OEL (back to back 4 million dollar cap penalties with that contract in a couple of years) . 

 

My new (old?) thought is that the Canucks should try and trade Myers, with a sweetener of some kind, to bring Chris Tanev back to the fold.  Not sure if it's feasible since Calgary is a divisional rival, but who knows.  

 

Hughes-Tanev

Soucy-Hronek

Wolanin-Cole

 

Now THAT would be a respectable defense.  

[cripplereh]

Me maybe 3 years ago as Tanev is getting old and I'd rather go with what we have

 

[qwijjibo]

2 hours ago, Jeremy Hronek said:

 

Agreed.  I also realized that it wouldn't work from a long term cap perspective anyways due to the cap penalty involved with OEL (back to back 4 million dollar cap penalties with that contract in a couple of years) . 

 

My new (old?) thought is that the Canucks should try and trade Myers, with a sweetener of some kind, to bring Chris Tanev back to the fold.  Not sure if it's feasible since Calgary is a divisional rival, but who knows.  

 

Hughes-Tanev

Soucy-Hronek

Wolanin-Cole

 

Now THAT would be a respectable defense.  

Why would Calgary do that?  They're expected to make the playoffs.  Myers is brutal and a huge cap dump 

[Ryan Strome]

1 hour ago, qwijjibo said:

Why would Calgary do that?  They're expected to make the playoffs.  Myers is brutal and a huge cap dump 

And the sweetener would have to be significant. Also, would Calgary even have the cap space? Aren't they right up to the roof? Although I guess a moot point because I can't think of any logical reason why the flames would ever consider this.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Ryan Strome

[Jeremy Hronek]

6 hours ago, qwijjibo said:

Why would Calgary do that?  They're expected to make the playoffs.  Myers is brutal and a huge cap dump 

 

Trust me I'm aware of this.  I guess my answer to your question is that I'm a biased homer with very wishful thinking?  

 

Originally, I had Calgary pegged as a team that was going to be blowing it up since there were all these rumours that everyone wanted out (i.e. Toffoli, Hanafin, Backlund, etc), but that problems seems to have been resolved (Toffoli left).   

 

Interdivisional trades do occur, but they are rare.......and the Canucks would probably have to throw in a significant sweetener for Calgary to even consider Tanev for Myers++.  So yeah, it's unlikely that a trade like this would ever occur.  My guess is that the Canucks will likely wait for later in the year and then re-sign Ethan Bear.......although I don't think Bear is going to move the needle much.  

 

Maybe Ilya Lyubushkin would be considered an upgrade on Myers?  (and a half-decent worthy pairing for Hughes?).  My gut feeling says, "no" but who knows.